The Confederate Crisis and Presidential Election of 1903
Patrick Cleburne was expected to be the man to beat. By 1903, the popularity of the Longstreet administration had fallen significantly, even as Haiti seemed to be inching closer to a "victory." First, prohibition wasn't actually very popular. Although significant health gains resulted in the Confederacy, an explosion of crime was blamed on President Longstreet, and the simple reality was that people liked their alcohol. Second, Longstreet's civil service reform was touted as a way to end the Mahone-Cleburne practice of simply rewarding prominent African-Americans with federal positions in return for them corralling significant shares of the black vote for the winning candidate. Although it largely ended this practice for a large number of civil service positions, Longstreet simply pivoted to rewarding his prominent black supporters with political appointments. This offended both racists and anti-corruption activists (a partially, but not entirely overlapping group). The midterm elections of 1900 brought the largest class of black representatives in Congress in history, albeit all in majority-black districts and heavily underrepresented (0 Senators, and only 7% of the House of Representatives despite being over 42% of the population). Regardless, this was seen as an apocalyptic sign by some elements of Confederate society, who constantly began whispering of a "negro takeover."
The third and final issue emanated from Haiti, but not in the way expected. In short, the invasion of Haiti had essentially demolished the island, including the ability of Haiti to pay the French indemnity, the payment owed by Haiti to France in the early 1800's in exchange for diplomatic recognition. The Confederates asserted that because Haitian independence had been extinguished, the indemnity was similarly extinguished. The French claimed otherwise, that Confederate annexation of Haiti meant they had acquired Haiti's debts. Longstreet, once beloved by Confederate big business, soon lost their confidence. To settle this issue, the Confederates submitted to the jurisdiction of the Permanent Court of Arbitration, but much to their dismay, the Confederacy lost. However, the Confederates realized they didn't really have much funding lying around to pay off the French, especially in an election year.
The only thing that really prevented Cleburne's victory in 1903 was quite simple - he died of old age. This set his party in a panic as they had to rally behind a new figure, which proved difficult since there weren't many living generals still around and it was believed that you couldn't beat an old independence war general with a random citizen. Some leaders settled upon Joseph Wheeler, perhaps the last remaining independence war general not currently running for President, but most of Cleburne's supporters found him too economically liberal (in the non-interventionist sense) and rallied behind him, if at all, with no enthusiasm. Longstreet had endorsed his Vice President, Edward Porter Alexander, and the stage seemed set again for one last presidential election between old generals.
However, the French response blindsided the Confederates. Viewing the Confederacy as a rogue actor, the French Empire declared that they would maintain the integrity of the international financial order by blockading the Confederacy until they folded and agreed to pay off the indemnity. Running for President a third time, Representative Ben Tillman lambasted the Confederate for erratic "anti-business policies", proclaiming an alternate scheme where he would harvest Haitians into forced labor, using their wages to pay off the Haitian indemnity to France. Tillman's reputation as a fire-breathing populist made his outreach to Confederate big business not entirely adopted, and although some abandoned Longstreet for Tillman, others rejected the "Tillman Compromise" as looking something a lot like slavery, which they were on paper at least supposed to be against now. Smelling blood, Tillman and his supporters announced the creation of the first outright, explicit political party in the Confederate States of America, the "Progressive Party of the Confederate States of America", which nominated Tillman for President and a well-known industrialist, Julian Carr, as his vice-president (to smooth Tillman's fire-breathing reputation).
However, the Confederates were not exactly as unprepared as they were in the Spanish-Confederate War. The Confederate Navy, largely built by British shipyards, while not matching the French fleet in any meaningful sense, was not a pushover. Combined with a network of forts that were actually built to be effective at deterring a blockade this time, French naval officers quickly realized that a bloodless blockade of the Confederate States was looking more difficult. They certainly had enough firepower to do so, but not without likely sparking a war. President Hay was inclined to settle this diplomatically, but one member of his cabinet, Albert J. Beveridge, the Navy Secretary, went remarkably public with his call for war to defend the Confederate States, arguing that the U.S. Navy had to activate to react to his huge violation of the Monroe Doctrine (which was technically never revoked). Hay, aging, dying, and increasingly an absentee President (due to the death of his beloved son), largely allowed Beveridge to drive the public diplomacy, as the U.S. Navy mobilized to patrol the Confederate shoreline. Eventually, the French backed down and agreed to a compromise by the Americans, whereupon a consortium of Wall Street banks would purchase Haiti's custom houses and pay off the French with 40% of the tarriff duties. Because the Haitian economy was in utter shambles and imported almost nothing besides humanitarian aid, this was seen as a huge humiliation by the French public once the details were let out.
In France, a group of nationalist thinkers such as Maurice Barres founded the League of Patriots, lambasting the French monarchy for its weak-handed policies towards the Confederate States. Napoleon IV was loathe to spark a war, a fact known to most of the French public, which was criticism so specifically attacked the Emperor. The Confederate crisis of 1903 was seen as perhaps the gravest humiliation to France since Napoleon IV's similarly dovish policies in Algeria. Although the constitutional reforms early in his life had quieted most liberals, again, it became clear to many that the French political system was remarkably bad at actually representing its thinkers. In contrast, Beveridge's reputation massively exploded in the United States, which was convenient for the ambitious politician as the Republican Party began asking who ought to replace Hay.
In the Confederacy, this was seen as a true triumph, another triumph after the "victory" in Haiti. Longstreet's flagging popularity surged, and in the subsequent elections, his Vice Presidential candidate, Edward P. Alexander, beat all expectations by actually coming in first (despite Longstreet's approval beginning the year at below 20%). However, he was unable to actually clinch a majority in the electoral college, pushing the election into the House of Representatives. This proved a hope to the forces behind Ben Tillman, who for the first time actually won a state (his home state of South Carolina, albeit with a small plurality as black voters split evenly between Wheeler and Alexander), which could in theory have catapulted him to the Presidency. This was not to be, as both major political blocs quickly united to deny Tillman a chance. Eventually, a deal was brokered between the "Prohibitionists" and the "Nationals", where national prohibition was to be replaced with a state-owned alcohol industry which would generate additional revenue for the government, in exchange for Porter and his Vice President, Ben Hooper, being confirmed by Congress.
Tillman quickly lambasted both blocs, calling them "one of the same clique." Which was increasingly not inaccurate. The "Compromise of 1903" severely weakened the political divisions between the old Longstreet and Cleburne blocs, as the two increasingly coalesced into one political bloc aimed at the maintenance of the state quo in Confederate politics, a status quo which Tillman and other 'Progressives' strenuously opposed. However, they were not the only opponents - some think they weren't going far enough. The 1903 election also saw the first presidential run of the socialist candidate Albert Parsons, though he did not win any states and only garnered 3.4% of the popular vote.