Dixieland: The Country of Tomorrow, Everyday (yet another Confederate TL)

Honestly I'd expect it to be somewhat of the opposite. The fact that Spain couldn't defeat a backwards, decaying slavocracy that exploded into a multi-sided civil war/class war despite being a globe spanning empire and European regional power is likely the far greater humiliation as far as the rest of Europe would be concerned.
Hindsight is 20/20. The Confederacy's fragility wasn't as clear before it actually started the war. It was an enormous nation with a significant economy. Despite the terrible miscalculations it made when it went to battle, the country had still behaved as though it had a proud military tradition and had many presidents who had been generals. It had gone toe to toe with the Union army, then among the strongest on Earth, just 20 years ago. That Spain defeated it at sea, made the most of its victory, took the fight to enemy ports (doing what Britain couldn't in 1814 to New Orleans) and pushed the plantation economy over the brink is hardly humiliating. It would be taken as a confirmation that Spain, though not a great power, is still relevant. This is significant for Spaniards, demoralized after years of frustrating and unsatisfying guerrilla conflict in Cuba. And indeed, because of their initial victories in this more conventional conflict, it appears that Spanish forces have arguably begun fighting with a level of confidence not seen in decades. The commanders and soldiers who humbled the Confederates will return to Madrid as national heroes (which will likely have an effect on that country's politics).

Spain may lose Cuba but there will be no national malaise over it. In fact, Spain will be rid of that ulcer in the most dignified possible way and left with a smaller but much more manageable colonial empire.
 
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Hindsight is 20/20. The Confederacy's fragility wasn't as clear before it actually started the war. It was an enormous nation with a significant economy. Despite the terrible miscalculations it made when it went to battle, the country had still behaved as though it had a proud military tradition and had many presidents who had been generals. It had gone toe to toe with the Union army, then among the strongest on Earth, just 20 years ago. That Spain defeated it at sea, made the most of its victory, took the fight to enemy ports (doing what Britain couldn't in 1814 to New Orleans) and pushed the plantation economy over the brink is hardly humiliating. It would be taken as a confirmation that Spain, though not a great power, is still relevant. This is significant for Spaniards, demoralized after years of frustrating and unsatisfying guerrilla conflict in Cuba. And indeed, because of their initial victories in this more conventional conflict, it appears that Spanish forces have arguably begun fighting with a level of confidence not seen in decades. The commanders and soldiers who humbled the Confederates will return to Madrid as national heroes (which will likely have an effect on that country's politics).

Spain may lose Cuba but there will be no national malaise over it. In fact, Spain will be rid of that ulcer in the most dignified possible way and left with a smaller but much more manageable colonial empire.

True, but Spain's fragility wasn't that obvious OTL either. At the end of the day, the Confederacy had a free population of probably around 6.5 million (with 4 million slaves), with mainland Spain having a population of around 17-18 million. Not real numbers, just guesstimating. In terms of economic development, Spain's probably richer per person if you don't count slaves as wealth.

So this was a war that the Spanish and most of the world assumed they'd win. Outside of independence wars, I don't think as of ITL 1885, any nation in the New World has yet won a war against a nation in Europe. Keep in mind the French intervention in Mexico was also essentially a "French" victory. The closest was the USA fighting Britain to a tie in the War of 1812 and now the CSA and Spanish just both kicking the crap out of each other. That being said, it's probably impressive to the Spaniards that they sort-of-held-on-sorta against both the US/CSA. So there's a reason why the Monroe doctrine is dead. The world also probably deeply underestimates the military prowess of the United States.

Basically at this point, from the standpoint of the United States, they have lost a good chunk of their navy and some army soldiers (both in the attack of New Orleans and Sherman's march). No actual damage to the US at home though. It will take a few years for the USA to rebuild their Navy, but the question is whether this is the right time to build a navy or whether it will become instantly obsolete at the time of the Dreadnoughts.

It is unclear to me what damage has been done to either Richmond or Norfolk if any at all, but the Confederacy overall will take at least a generation to rebuild at a time when the USA is growing fairly rapidly.

Richmond/Norfolk were destroyed when the USA occupied both in the Civil War - and retreating Confederates more or less burned down both towns. They're recovering, but not quite up to pre-war heights, especially compared to pre-rebellion Georgia (which was untouched in the US Civil War).
 
Chapter 53 - The Treaty of Rio de Janeiro
The Treaty of Rio de Janeiro
The treaty ending the Spanish-Confederate War was negotiated interestingly in Rio de Janeiro, largely because it was contentious where to even hold the meeting. It was ultimately held in Rio de Janeiro, because the Confederates felt that Brazil, a New World nation with slavery, would be sympathetic to them, while the Spaniards believed shared Catholicism and Iberian heritage would bind them together. In reality, the Brazilians at the meeting were rather even-handed.

Many reasons pushed the parties together. The Mexicans had everything they wanted, so they were already up for peace. The Spanish, while being the far less devastated primary belligerent, also were horrified at the losses their army had taken. The Spanish garrison in Cuba was destroyed, reinforced by a giant army in Spain, which was then also largely destroyed. In addition, Spanish armies in Charleston and New Orleans had also been destroyed. The Confederates and Americans held more than a mind-boggling 100,000 Spanish troops in various prisoner of war camps across the Confederacy, where many were dying of infectious diseases and malnutrition (which in turn lowers disease immunity, leading to more deaths). Not due to Confederate war crimes, but just because the Confederate economy had totally collapsed. In fact, as conditions in the camps grew worse and public order began collapsing, many Confederate officers simply released the Spanish POWs, sending them to local towns where they were asked to help keep public order. The Spaniards were actually shocked at this act of charity, especially as many of these Spanish troops had just looted Southern cities and understood they could just easily move south into Georgia to support the Spanish Army. Surprisingly, most of them stayed, helping restore public order in Southern towns (who often had a shortage of healthy-bodied young and middle-aged men).

It went without saying that the Confederates obviously wanted peace as soon as possible just so they could rebuild their nation. The Provo rebellion was in collapse, but large parts of the country were still in chaos. Finally, the United States wanted peace as soon as possible, largely because President Clay did not believe he would win re-election. Secretary of State Blaine's proposal to massively expand and modernize the US Navy was stopped by Clay as a useless expenditure when he entered office. Now, almost every sunken US ironclad and drowned American sailor was being blamed on him by Blaine. Who was going to be the Republican nominee for President. The Blaine campaign focused on anti-Catholicism/nativism, support for aggressive foreign policy (including annexing Cuba), and castigating Clay for the recession (largely caused by the war Clay was trying to stop). Clay hadn't even decided to run again, as the situation seemed so hopeless. He deeply did not want to see the United States annex Cuba, so he was in a hurry to conclude the peace agreement before the election.

Hammered out after several sessions, the Treaty of Rio de Janeiro finally ended the Spanish-Confederate War as follows:

1. Cuba was to become an independent "Confederate Viceroyalty of Cuba", which was totally self-governing, but technically still recognized the King of Spain as their ceremonial monarch. The Cuban revolutionary army was to be renamed the "Royal Cuban Army" as a sop to the Spanish, but left with all of the same revolutionary leaders. This allowed Cuba to be independent in every meaningful way, but let the Spanish pretend otherwise at home. The Cuban Revolutionaries were only mollified by being allowed to refer to Cuba as the "Republican Monarchy" in most official correspondence.

2. In compensation for Cuba, the Spanish would be granted Confederate North Borneo, which had surrendered peacefully in the first week of the war.

3. A final settlement on the Texas-Mexico dispute was drafted. The border was allowed to be moved up to the Nueces River, with the rest of the border decided by literally drawing a line from the Western terminus of the Nueces River to the Southeastern tip of the American Arizona territory. As compensation, the Mexicans would pay a significant share of $$$ into the "Freedman's Fund", which was to help finance any Confederate loans taken to compensate slaveholders for any blacks born free.

4. Spain was allowed to maintain its presence in Savannah as a "free trade port", where the Spanish could freely dock ships and garrison troops. In addition, Spanish traders were subject to Spanish law instead of Confederate laws. This port was granted to Spain as a 50-year lease, thus expiring in 1938. However, Spain was forced to pay for the lease, with the proceeds going into the Freedman's Fund. Interestingly, Spanish finances were heavily wrecked by the war, so to pay into the Freedman's Fund...they were forced to borrow from American banks. The Confederates agreed to this because it was catastrophic when the Spanish blockaded Confederate ports - giving the Spanish a port basically ensured that the Confederacy would always have a lifeline in a future conflict. Unless they supposed that war was with Spain again.

5. Any individual Spanish troops, militiamen, or loyalists in Cuba, were free to choose between Cuban or Confederate citizenship, which had to be accepted by all parties. Surprisingly, many Spanish troops, having heard good things about the Confederate release of POWs, actually chose the Confederacy.

6. The treaty included all of the anti-slavery provisions of the pact with the USA that would normally violate the Confederate Constitution without the treaty power. First, the treaty made it illegal for the Confederate government to intervene or prevent a state from abolishing slavery. Second, it implemented the "compensated law of the womb" in most of the states, namely Alabama, Mississippi, Texas, Tennessee, Alabama, Virginia, and Oklahoma.

Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina were given a compensated emancipation. However, this was essentially uncompensated in Georgia, North Florida (where almost all of the slaves were), and the Provo regions of South Carolina. Not out of extreme anti-slavery sentiment, but because almost all the slaves had simply walked off the plantations and most of the records in those regions had been destroyed in what became euphemistically called "the Troubles". In North Carolina as well as the loyalist regions of South Carolina and Florida, a compensated emancipation was drafted, to be paid for out of the Freedman's Fund. As a general rule, planters who had sided with the Nationals in these states were given compensation and those who had sided with the Provos were not. In many cases, this created furious rage, because pro-National planters actually skewed wealthy. Thus, many of those Provo planters were smaller planters who were economically ruined by the emancipation saw many wealthy planters generously compensated. The supporters of the furious Ben Tillman of South Carolina in particular were outraged, catapulting him into a position of being one of the most outspoken dissidents against the new Confederate regime.

The peace was relatively unpopular everywhere, but most Spaniards and Confederates still breathed a sigh of relief, as the horrible war was now over. Many Confederates grused about horrifying and humiliating concessions (including territory and treaty ports) and many Spaniards were angry that Cuba was "lost", but the average person in both countries was just sick and tired of the war, glad that it ended.

The Hohenzollern Monarchy in Spain responded by reinforcing what was left of its American empire, namely the island of Puerto Rico, and viewing Borneo as a possible region of colonial expansion. The political class celebrated the war as essentially a victory showing that Spain was still a great empire. The Confederates were shell-shocked, especially as General Mahone declared that he would completing John Morgan's term in office. Although some plotted to revolt against him, those ideas were squashed by General Longstreet, who returned from Cuba as a war hero and recognized the government as legitimate. Even though his refusal to surrender likely caused the horrifying crisis of the Confederacy, at the end of the day, he won in Cuba, refused to surrender when told, and then finally defeated the Spanish. Despite all of the misery suffered by the Confederacy, many took solace in the fact that their army in Cuba was ever-victorious. Mahone's first act as President was quite simple: he didn't want a coup against himself, so he decided to move the Confederate capital out of Montgomery, which he saw as a den of slave power. Instead, he carved a piece out of Georgia (which had no room to complain due to being under military administration), the city of Chickamauga on the border with Tennessee, where the Braxton Bragg's had famously crushed the Union (just south of Chattanooga, where he crushed them again), naming the new city Fort Bragg.

To shore up his support, President Mahone chose war hero Patrick Cleburne as his Vice President, who immediately drew a lawsuit claiming that the Irish-born General was not a natural-born citizen. The Confederate Supreme Court unsurprisingly immediately dismissed the claim, holding that presidential qualifications were not under the jurisdiction of the Supreme Court, but rather the sole jurisdiction of some mix of the electoral college and of the Congress (when certifying the results of the electoral college). The 1888 midterm elections were held during the war when Mahone's soldiers controlled more or less most loyalist states, so it unsurprisingly produced a clean slate of Mahone partisans. Amusingly, the Mahone Congress ruled that natural-born citizen clause referred to humans born from two biological human parents. When their opponents asked them why on earth the clause served any purpose and who it would exclude, a Mahone partisan responded jokingly: "Paddy's Catholic, so Jesus to him!" This then became the official legal doctrine in the Confederate States, as it was actually argued and accepted that the natural-born citizen clause was intended to prevent the Confederacy, especially the representatives from theocratic North Carolina, from electing Jesus Christ as President, because Christ was King, and thus electing Christ as President would be a dishonorable demotion.
 
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Sounds like both sides have managed to come out of this, if not satisfied, at least not too grumpy. The CSA probably got more of what they wanted, but that's made up for by their implosion. Rebuilding is certainly not going to be smooth sailing, especially since the divide between rich and poor whites was hardly healed, but at least progress is possible.

And ultimately, the USA did end up ending slavery in the south, though in an unexpected time and manner.
 
...The treaty included all of the anti-slavery provisions of the pact with the USA that would normally violate the Confederate Constitution without the treaty power. First, the treaty made it illegal for the Confederate government to intervene or prevent a state from abolishing slavery...

Confederate sovereignty is a dead letter and the world rejoices. It turns out being inside the tent, pissing out was vastly nicer than standing outside, pissing in until the 500lb gorilla inside comes out to tie a knot in your junk.

(Seriously, this is going to have all sorts of awful ramifications for Confederate labor and governance in the 20th century. They've handed over the ability to make domestic law to the US without so much as a peep of representation.)

...naming the new city Fort Bragg.

Oh, that's cruel, to saddle your entire government with that. Do they call residents Braggarts? What's the suicide rate like?
 
Hm, I predict a James Longstreet presidency in the future. A politically sound man of a good moral standing, and would have the backing of the veterans.

Also, what ever happened to Jeb Stuart?
 
So ends the Spanish=Confederate War. Everyone (Except Mexico) lost, but some lost much worse than others. I can only imagine the utter mess the Confederacy is going to be for the next twenty years or so and the influx of Spanish soldiers isn't going to make the anti-Catholic sorts in North America very cheery.
 
The union just watched the only real competition get crippled and is now in debt to them alongside with the Spanish owing a debt. I expect the European states to be real nervous. As for the confederacy I expect people carrying weapons for protection and some areas not be to entered after sundown.
 
The union just watched the only real competition get crippled and is now in debt to them alongside with the Spanish owing a debt. I expect the European states to be real nervous. As for the confederacy I expect people carrying weapons for protection and some areas not be to entered after sundown.
Yes and no. At this point, the Mexicans probably have more organized Military forces within 200 miles of the border than they did at any time prior to OTL WWII. Given the relative distances, Mexico is probably capable of taking Southern California and Arizona before the US can get troops there.
 
So ends the Spanish=Confederate War. Everyone (Except Mexico) lost, but some lost much worse than others. I can only imagine the utter mess the Confederacy is going to be for the next twenty years or so and the influx of Spanish soldiers isn't going to make the anti-Catholic sorts in North America very cheery.
Unless they went to Southern Louisiana, which is probably the most inviting place. It's already Catholic and the local Cajun culture is easier going, more familiar to the Spanish and more culturally open minded in general. Additionally, there were still quite a few Spanish creoles in Cajun country descended from Canarian settlers who came about 100 years earlier.

Oh, and the national population was indeed surprisingly small. By my estimates, based on a conservative reading of otl censuses and assuming roughly similar demographic ratios to 20 years earlier, it looks like there should be about 13 million people with roughly 8 to 9 million whites and 4 to 5 million blacks by the mid 1880s.
 
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Chapter 54 - The U.S. Elections of 1888 and the "Culture Wars"
The U.S. Elections of 1888 and the "Culture Wars"
The ink had hardly dried and former Secretary of State Blaine was castigating the Treaty of Rio de Janeiro as treasonous crypto-Catholicism. Pointing at the Spanish port in Savannah as "the first tumor of a Roman Catholic," his campaign castigated President Clay as the candidate of "Alcohol and Avignon" and drew support from the traditional business and upscale White Anglo-Saxon Protestant base of the Republican Party. Worst of all, Clay's own party was facing its internal rebellion in the West. In the aftermath of the Qing-French War, the Qing economy briefly suffered quite a deal, encouraging a large increase in Chinese immigration to the Western states. Clay notably vetoed a proposed Chinese Exclusion Act passed mostly by his own party, outraging many Western supporters of the National Union Party.

In addition, the new labor movement was outraged by the state of economic policy. Although the National Union Party was thoroughly on the side of free silver and public spending on schools and roads, they asserted that they would totally respect the famous Supreme Court majority opinion by Justice Field in the Slaughterhouse Cases, where the California state government attempted to create a corporation to regulate slaughterhouses in the city of San Francisco. The Court ruled 6-3 that such an act violated the Privileges or Immunities Clause of the new 14th Amendment, because one of the privileges/immunities held by American citizens was the right to "sustain their lives through labor." Thus, a state could not exercise its police power to negatively regulate the economic conduct of Americans.

This outraged both progressives and Westerners when Justice Field, a Californian who had amusingly once supported Chinese exclusion, also wrote in the Wong v. California case that California's law prohibiting companies and governments (state, local, and municipal) in California from employing Chinese aliens was unconstitutional. Field concluded that aliens also enjoyed such privileges and immunities. This outraged Californian politicians, who pointed out the 14th Amendment explicitly referenced "privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States." In the Field Opinion, the Supreme Court reasoned that the "Privileges or Immunities" clause of the 14th Amendment constructively expanded the separate "Privileges and Immunities" clause of Article 4 of the Constitution to encompass the same privileges/immunities. The case was largely focused around how operative the distinction between "and" and "or" was - the Court found no such distinction even though there likely was one. As the Privileges and Immunities clauses referenced "Citizens in the several states", the Court reasoned that aliens were not US citizens, but they were citizens of their relevant state. The Supreme Court case declaring that Chinese were "citizens of California" (even if barred from US citizenship) sparked riots in San Francisco and Los Angeles that were put down by federal troops. Field became a target of hate in California, with his effigy often hung across lampposts across the state, because the Californian was viewed to have "betrayed" his state.

Realizing that both of the two candidates supported the Supreme Court and that both of the two candidates were opposed to a federal Chinese Exclusion Act (which was probably still constitutional under the current precedent due to the plenary power doctrine, but who knows), angry Westerners and labor organizers mobilized into what they believed could be a third force in US politics. The "Anti-Oriental Movement" was organized throughout the Western United States. At their first nominating convention, Senator Leland Stanford of California and Senator Sylvester Pennoyer of Oregon were chosen as their presidential and vice-presidential candidates. The Anti-Oriental Party had a platform of expelling all Chinese from the USA, "exterminating all uncooperative Indian tribes", promoting organized labor, free silver, repealing the 14th Amendment of the Constitution, and instituting maximum workweeks, minimum wages, a ban on child labor, and other economic regulations. They also snuck in a platform plank about outlawing freemasons in hopes to drawing anyone who was old enough to remember the Anti-Masonic Party. Their suspicion of freemasons was also driven by the fact they were disproportionately drawing from Catholic immigrants themselves - they also deplored the anti-Catholic rhetoric of Blaine, while castigating Clay as a "Indo-Chinese bastard." Amusingly, none of the candidates castigated Clay for his policy towards the Confederacy, since pushing back on slavery was wildly popular across the entire political spectrum.

The deep recession, a split in his own party, and a united Republican Party more or less made Clay's re-election doomed. The National Union Party panicked, especially as the Republicans had taken back control of Congress in 1886. Another GOP landslide in their fears, would plunge back the National Union Party to the dark days immediately after the Southern Secession. Blaine also reached out to his friend, John Hay, a stalwart of the National Union Party, and made him his Vice-Presidential candidate, further splitting the National Unionists. Hay was a loyal National Unionist because of Lincoln's association with the party, but he began drifting away after Lincoln's death.​

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They were right. The election was a massacre. The Republicans surged back to a veto-proof supermajority in the House, as National Union legislators were swept out of office from nearly everywhere in the country besides their base of support in the border states. Even in the Western states, National Union governments collapsed due to the surge in the Anti-Oriental Party. No National Union governors survived in the West, with the exception of the Governor of California, who had defected to the Anti-Orientals! Republicans cheered the incredible stability of their party. Their worst performance was 47.6% against the beloved Lincoln. Then 49.8%. Then 48.2%. And now 48.3%. Despite all of the dizzying changes in American politics, the Republicans truly believed themselves to be the bedrock of the nation. And under President James G. Blaine, they meant to keep it that way.

Blaine had been supported strongly by the American Protective Association, and one of his chief campaign promises was to clamp down on "Avignonism." Most states banned funding to Catholic Schools and prohibited any educational instruction in a non-English language. Most dramatic however, was the Immigration Act of 1889, which created a massive list of categories that would be barred from the United States, such as anyone with a disease, suspected of alcoholism, illiterates, the "unclean", or anarchists. Although Catholic immigrants weren't specifically barred, they were typically turned away at the ports based on anti-Catholic stereotypes, especially alcoholism. In addition, the Act required all immigrants to swear an Oath of Supremacy, based on the English Oath of Supremacy, that they possessed only loyalty to the US Constitution and no foreign entity, such as the "Pope in Avignon". This horrified many Catholic immigrants, who saw this as a clear targeting of them (the "Pope in Avignon" was explicitly mentioned).

In addition, many US states decided to pare back their religious freedoms. An attempt to eliminate the provision in the New Hampshire Constitution that allowed only Protestants to serve in state government was defeated.[1] Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Maine quickly joined New Hampshire in adding a similar provision to their Constitutions. This sparked a fury in Rhode Island, which was actually the most Catholic state in the Union, but still completely controlled by an almost entirely Protestant Republican Party. Riots tore apart Rhode Island throughout Blaine's administration, which he often used as an example to argue that Catholic immigration was dangerous. He also cited Spanish soldiers taking Confederate citizenship as an example of "Catholic infiltration." An effort was made to amend the New York Constitution, but prominent New York Republican Frederick Douglass gave a famous oratory against the proposal, which swung most of the politicians against it.

The vast majority of Republican-controlled states also expanded state constitutions outlining that only "Christians loyal to the Constitution and no foreign authority" could serve in government. The National Union Party was outraged, pointing out that this also prohibited Jews from serving in government. That was not actually the original intention of such laws, but it had such an effect. The only state where non-Christians could serve in office became California, which was ironically one of only a few US states (CA, OR, CO, NV) that explicitly banned non-whites from serving in government. All of these acts would be blatantly unconstitutional if enacted on a federal level (Test Acts are specifically prohibited by the Constitution), but state governments could enact them at will.

The immediate response to this wave of nativism was a precipitous collapse in immigration to the United States of Catholics, even though there were no explicit prohibitions on foreign immigration (which outraged anti-Chinese activists.) As a result, immigrants from Austria-Hungary, Italy, Spain or other Catholic nations tended to immigrate instead to Latin America or Canada (furthering religious strife there, thus furthering even more anti-Catholic sentiment in America) instead. Interestingly, immigrants from Russia and the Ottoman Empire, especially Jews, had a tendency of going to the Confederate States, which was generally considered a bad option, but also the only non-explicitly anti-Semitic option. Also, Orthodox Christians also didn't fit very well in Catholic Latin America or the Protestant USA.

In many ways, the Republican supermajorities of 1888 largely fell into their lap, but they took incredible advantage of the opportunity. In their views, the Republican Party had "locked in" the national character of the United States for as long as they could envision, which in their view, would result in a permanent Republican majority. For all the strife and condemnation that the USA suffered, they felt confident about their future, especially in the face of a neutered and divided opposition.

Catholic bishops across Europe widely condemned the United States, which worsened the strife by the Americans in retaliation recognizing the Pope in Rome as the only legitimate legitimate representative of the Catholic Church. This further drained the respectability of the Roman Union, especially in Latin America, which had now largely viewed it as an illegitimate puppet of the secular Italian government. The fact that the USA and anticlerical Italy enjoyed close relations further poisoned Catholic images of the USA and of the Roman Union. In fact, the supporters of the Roman Union, namely Great Britain, North Germany, the United States, Italy, and the Qing Empire sounded to most like a who's who of global anti-Catholicism. The Pope in Avignon did not make things much better when he also implemented a non expedit policy, urging Catholics in the United States to not vote in American elections. In many ways, Blaine had been hoping for such a response, because now he truly felt like he had guaranteed eternal political dominance.
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[1] OTL, this requirement was only removed in 1877.
 
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Well as messed up as the CSA is your USA appears to be tracking a close but more SOBER path the the madness verse Rupublican Union/New USA. Great story keep it up
 
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