Dixieland: The Country of Tomorrow, Everyday (yet another Confederate TL)

[TastySpam]

The U.S. Elections of 1888 and the "Culture Wars"
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The ink had hardly dried and former Secretary of State Blaine was castigating the Treaty of Rio de Janeiro as treasonous crypto-Catholicism. Pointing at the Spanish port in Savannah as "the first tumor of a Roman Catholic," his campaign castigated President Clay as the candidate of "Alcohol and Avignon" and drew support from the traditional business and upscale White Anglo-Saxon Protestant base of the Republican Party. Worst of all, Clay's own party was facing its internal rebellion in the West. In the aftermath of the Qing-French War, the Qing economy briefly suffered quite a deal, encouraging a large increase in Chinese immigration to the Western states. Clay notably vetoed a proposed Chinese Exclusion Act passed mostly by his own party, outraging many Western supporters of the National Union Party.

In addition, the new labor movement was outraged by the state of economic policy. Although the National Union Party was thoroughly on the side of free silver and public spending on schools and roads, they asserted that they would totally respect the famous Supreme Court majority opinion by Justice Field in the Slaughterhouse Cases, where the California state government attempted to create a corporation to regulate slaughterhouses in the city of San Francisco. The Court ruled 6-3 that such an act violated the Privileges or Immunities Clause of the new 14th Amendment, because one of the privileges/immunities held by American citizens was the right to "sustain their lives through labor." Thus, a state could not exercise its police power to negatively regulate the economic conduct of Americans.

This outraged both progressives and Westerners when Justice Field, a Californian who had amusingly once supported Chinese exclusion, also wrote in the Wong v. California case that California's law prohibiting companies and governments (state, local, and municipal) in California from employing Chinese aliens was unconstitutional. Field concluded that aliens also enjoyed such privileges and immunities. This outraged Californian politicians, who pointed out the 14th Amendment explicitly referenced "privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States." In the Field Opinion, the Supreme Court reasoned that the "Privileges or Immunities" clause of the 14th Amendment constructively expanded the separate "Privileges and Immunities" clause of Article 4 of the Constitution to encompass the same privileges/immunities. The case was largely focused around how operative the distinction between "and" and "or" was - the Court found no such distinction even though there likely was one. As the Privileges and Immunities clauses referenced "Citizens in the several states", the Court reasoned that aliens were not US citizens, but they were citizens of their relevant state. The Supreme Court case declaring that Chinese were "citizens of California" (even if barred from US citizenship) sparked riots in San Francisco and Los Angeles that were put down by federal troops. Field became a target of hate in California, with his effigy often hung across lampposts across the state, because the Californian was viewed to have "betrayed" his state.

Realizing that both of the two candidates supported the Supreme Court and that both of the two candidates were opposed to a federal Chinese Exclusion Act (which was probably still constitutional under the current precedent due to the plenary power doctrine, but who knows), angry Westerners and labor organizers mobilized into what they believed could be a third force in US politics. The "Anti-Oriental Movement" was organized throughout the Western United States. At their first nominating convention, Senator Leland Stanford of California and Senator Sylvester Pennoyer of Oregon were chosen as their presidential and vice-presidential candidates. The Anti-Oriental Party had a platform of expelling all Chinese from the USA, "exterminating all uncooperative Indian tribes", promoting organized labor, free silver, repealing the 14th Amendment of the Constitution, and instituting maximum workweeks, minimum wages, a ban on child labor, and other economic regulations. They also snuck in a platform plank about outlawing freemasons in hopes to drawing anyone who was old enough to remember the Anti-Masonic Party. Their suspicion of freemasons was also driven by the fact they were disproportionately drawing from Catholic immigrants themselves - they also deplored the anti-Catholic rhetoric of Blaine, while castigating Clay as a "Indo-Chinese bastard." Amusingly, none of the candidates castigated Clay for his policy towards the Confederacy, since pushing back on slavery was wildly popular across the entire political spectrum.

The deep recession, a split in his own party, and a united Republican Party more or less made Clay's re-election doomed. The National Union Party panicked, especially as the Republicans had taken back control of Congress in 1886. Another GOP landslide in their fears, would plunge back the National Union Party to the dark days immediately after the Southern Secession. Blaine also reached out to his friend, John Hay, a stalwart of the National Union Party, and made him his Vice-Presidential candidate, further splitting the National Unionists. Hay was a loyal National Unionist because of Lincoln's association with the party, but he began drifting away after Lincoln's death.​

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They were right. The election was a massacre. The Republicans surged back to a veto-proof supermajority in the House, as National Union legislators were swept out of office from nearly everywhere in the country besides their base of support in the border states. Even in the Western states, National Union governments collapsed due to the surge in the Anti-Oriental Party. No National Union governors survived in the West, with the exception of the Governor of California, who had defected to the Anti-Orientals! Republicans cheered the incredible stability of their party. Their worst performance was 47.6% against the beloved Lincoln. Then 49.8%. Then 48.2%. And now 48.3%. Despite all of the dizzying changes in American politics, the Republicans truly believed themselves to be the bedrock of the nation. And under President James G. Blaine, they meant to keep it that way.

Blaine had been supported strongly by the American Protective Association, and one of his chief campaign promises was to clamp down on "Avignonism." Most states banned funding to Catholic Schools and prohibited any educational instruction in a non-English language. Most dramatic however, was the Immigration Act of 1889, which created a massive list of categories that would be barred from the United States, such as anyone with a disease, suspected of alcoholism, illiterates, the "unclean", or anarchists. Although Catholic immigrants weren't specifically barred, they were typically turned away at the ports based on anti-Catholic stereotypes, especially alcoholism. In addition, the Act required all immigrants to swear an Oath of Supremacy, based on the English Oath of Supremacy, that they possessed only loyalty to the US Constitution and no foreign entity, such as the "Pope in Avignon". This horrified many Catholic immigrants, who saw this as a clear targeting of them (the "Pope in Avignon" was explicitly mentioned).

In addition, many US states decided to pare back their religious freedoms. An attempt to eliminate the provision in the New Hampshire Constitution that allowed only Protestants to serve in state government was defeated.[1] Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Maine quickly joined New Hampshire in adding a similar provision to their Constitutions. This sparked a fury in Rhode Island, which was actually the most Catholic state in the Union, but still completely controlled by an almost entirely Protestant Republican Party. Riots tore apart Rhode Island throughout Blaine's administration, which he often used as an example to argue that Catholic immigration was dangerous. He also cited Spanish soldiers taking Confederate citizenship as an example of "Catholic infiltration." An effort was made to amend the New York Constitution, but prominent New York Republican Frederick Douglass gave a famous oratory against the proposal, which swung most of the politicians against it.

The vast majority of Republican-controlled states also expanded state constitutions outlining that only "Christians loyal to the Constitution and no foreign authority" could serve in government. The National Union Party was outraged, pointing out that this also prohibited Jews from serving in government. That was not actually the original intention of such laws, but it had such an effect. The only state where non-Christians could serve in office became California, which was ironically one of only a few US states (CA, OR, CO, NV) that explicitly banned non-whites from serving in government. All of these acts would be blatantly unconstitutional if enacted on a federal level (Test Acts are specifically prohibited by the Constitution), but state governments could enact them at will.

The immediate response to this wave of nativism was a precipitous collapse in immigration to the United States of Catholics, even though there were no explicit prohibitions on foreign immigration (which outraged anti-Chinese activists.) As a result, immigrants from Austria-Hungary, Italy, Spain or other Catholic nations tended to immigrate instead to Latin America or Canada (furthering religious strife there, thus furthering even more anti-Catholic sentiment in America) instead. Interestingly, immigrants from Russia and the Ottoman Empire, especially Jews, had a tendency of going to the Confederate States, which was generally considered a bad option, but also the only non-explicitly anti-Semitic option. Also, Orthodox Christians also didn't fit very well in Catholic Latin America or the Protestant USA.

In many ways, the Republican supermajorities of 1888 largely fell into their lap, but they took incredible advantage of the opportunity. In their views, the Republican Party had "locked in" the national character of the United States for as long as they could envision, which in their view, would result in a permanent Republican majority. For all the strife and condemnation that the USA suffered, they felt confident about their future, especially in the face of a neutered and divided opposition.

Catholic bishops across Europe widely condemned the United States, which worsened the strife by the Americans in retaliation recognizing the Pope in Rome as the only legitimate legitimate representative of the Catholic Church. This further drained the respectability of the Roman Union, especially in Latin America, which had now largely viewed it as an illegitimate puppet of the secular Italian government. The fact that the USA and anticlerical Italy enjoyed close relations further poisoned Catholic images of the USA and of the Roman Union. In fact, the supporters of the Roman Union, namely Great Britain, North Germany, the United States, Italy, and the Qing Empire sounded to most like a who's who of global anti-Catholicism. The Pope in Avignon did not make things much better when he also implemented a non expedit policy, urging Catholics in the United States to not vote in American elections. In many ways, Blaine had been hoping for such a response, because now he truly felt like he had guaranteed eternal political dominance.
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[1] OTL, this requirement was only removed in 1877.

 

[TastySpam]

Damn. Really took me a while to think of what I should do next, because I always feel like I'm forgetting something somewhere in the world. Please tell me if I'm clearly forgetting something.

Alexander the Great (1855-1888)
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Russia's triumph in the Great Eastern War made Alexander II a hero to most Russian conservatives, who saw Russia finally establish access to the Mediterranean. The unlikely Russian triumph over Britain with the widespread acceptance of the Treaty of San Stefano secured Alexander's entire right-flank. This gave Alexander II the political capital necessary to grant additional powers to his Armenian minister, Mikhail Loris-Melikov, who immediately implemented constitutional reforms. Under the Alexander Constitution, Russia became something resembling a constitutional monarchy, albeit a very limited one. Emperor Alexander was notably given a "right of legislative initiative" (to propose laws directly to the two Parliamentary houses). Most notably, neither house of Parliament was directly elected. The members of the House of Commons were simply chosen by Alexander's Zemstvos, local self-governments he had set up after the abolishment of serfdom. The House of Lords were of course filled with pro-Alexander nobles. To make the Parliament even more toothless, if they voted down a proposal from the Tsar three times, the Emperor could then actually implement it without parliamentary ratification. In addition, the army was loyal only to the Tsar. Finally, the Privy Council was seemingly modeled after the UK Privy Council, but all of its members were selected from the two houses of Parliament by the Tsar (and dismissed at will) - and the Privy Council, not Parliament, had the right to declare war, sign treaties, and propose constitutional amendments (the President of the Privy Council would serve as Prime Minister).

The conservatives grudgingly accepted the reforms. However, the radical left was not mollified in the slightest by a constitutional monarchy that was still one of the most absolutist in Europe . They continued their constant assassination attempts against Alexander II. A student tried to shoot him in 1879, and he only escaped because all 5 bullets missed. The People's Will (Narodnaya Volya) tried to blow his train up again that year. Another NV-plotted explosion in 1880 killed 10 people in the Winter Palace. Two bombs almost killed him in 1881, when his carriage only survived because Napoleon IV had given the Tsar a new, explosion-proof carriage in order to top the older carriage Napoleon III had gifted the Tsar.

Alexander II quickly found himself politically isolated. Despite dodging constant left-wing assassinations, the Russian conservatives began abandoning him as the memory of victory in the Great Eastern War began dimming. Alexander II scandalized the entire Imperial Court due to when he immediately married his long-time mistress, Catherine Dolgorukov, almost immediately after the death of his wife, ignoring the mourning period. He immediately legitimized his three children with her, which scandalized most of the rest of the Imperial family. His oldest son and successor, Grand Duke Alexander Alexandrovich, disliked this, and also strongly opposed his Constitution. The relations between the son and the father would become one of the most famous since Ivan IV and his son (who he famously killed by bashing his head in), though it was nowhere as negative as the press typically depicted it.

The relationship between the two men was further strained in December of 1881, during the Warsaw pogroms, when a false alarm led to a riot that eventually turned against local Jews. Outraging Grand Duke Alexander, Alexander II sent the Russian Army immediately to disperse the rioters and protect the Jews of Warsaw. This outraged much of the hardcore traditionalists, an outrage further strengthened when Alexander II vetoed proposed anti-Jewish legislation pushed by several of his ministers, such as the Count Ignatyev. Alexander II eventually dealt with Ignatyev by ironically engineering his election as Prince of Bulgaria, because he was relatively popular in Bulgaria for his role in advocating for Bulgarian independence during the Great Eastern War. Alexander II actually used the pogroms in Warsaw as an excuse to further limit Polish autonomy. However, the young Grand Duke Alexander still counseled his father from avoiding official duties at the Winter Palace simply in order to avoid the constant assassinations, counsel that likely saved Alexander II's life. Despite their political and personal tensions, the two men still cared for each other in their own way.

Alexander II also annoyed Russian traditionalists with his bellicose, but unsuccessful negotiations at the Afghan Boundary Commission. After the British had backed down in dealings with the Emir of Afghanistan in the wake of defeat in South Africa, Alexander II saw that as a sign of British weakness and pounced in 1884/1885. However, the new Churchill administration was far tougher than the Gladstone administration on Russia - and having forged a new defense treaty with the Qing Empire in China, the British offered total diplomatic support to the Emir of Afghanistan in resisting Russian aggression. The Panjedeh incident nearly spiraled into war. Ultimately, the Russians backed down, further tarnishing Alexander II's support among Russian political elites. The British quickly believed that Tsar Alexander II was all talk, but no bite. The Afghan-Russian border was set just south of the city of Yoloten, giving Afghanistan control of most of the Badghis region. This was the internationally accepted previous border between Afghanistan and Russia, although it was always poorly defined. Although Russian territorial aims almost completely failed at the Afghan Boundary Commission, it did carry some sense of a Russian diplomatic victory. In the aftermath of the Anglo-Qing Alliance, the outraged Napoleon IV offered total diplomatic support for the Tsar of Russia, which was then echoed by the Austrian Emperor.

This quickly developed into close relations between the three nations - in what would be typically called the "Alliance of the Three Emperors." The onslaught of French investment in Russia would quickly lead to rapid industrialization. Nikolai von Bunge, the Russian banker close to the French who had helped Alexander II implement the emancipation of the serfs, quickly became one of the most powerful men in the Privy Council, aided by his close supporter, Sergei Witte. This was helpful for Alexander II, because the nobles had grown to detest him to so much, pretty much every Alexander II budget was voted down three times in Parliament before being signed anyways. The failure of Russia in Central Asia and the danger of the Anglo-Qing Alliance quickly led to large expenditures to both the Trans-Caspian and Trans-Siberian Railroads, funded largely by French banks.[1] The Russian railboom also helped boost Austria, because the French government intentionally pushed French banks to only fund railroads from Russia to Austrian Galicia, as opposed to railroads from Russia to the Congress Poland to Prussia. The goal was to make Austria, not Prussia, the preferred economic partner of Russia, a largely successful (albeit very expensive for the French treasury) goal. However, it also had the side-effect of making it actually very difficult for the Russians to actually ship any troops to the Congress Poland, something that Alexander II was fine with, because he feared an industrialized Poland.

Alexander II's reign as Emperor would come to an end ironically not due to the many assassins who tried to assassinate him, but rather just awful luck. On October 29, 1888, the Imperial train carrying Alexander II and his family derailed at Borki, causing the roof of the entire train to collapse on the Imperial Family. Much to the shock of Grand Duke Alexander, his father pushed him out of the way of the collapsing steel roof, saving his son at the cost of his own life. A shellshocked Grand Duke Alexander, now Emperor Alexander III of Russia, was rescued from the wreckage. Alexander II was quickly posthumously named in almost Imperial literature as "Alexander the Great" (under his son's orders) and although Emperor Alexander III was a hardcore reactionary who had earlier opposed almost all of his father's laws, he would have no tolerance for any court noble who deigned to speak ill of his father. Alexander III had no desire to continue any of his father's reforms, but he also would not allow anyone to reverse them.
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[1] Broadly speaking, this industrialization is pretty OTL, although the industrial boom starts several years earlier here, because the ITL Franco-Russian Alliance is established in 1885/1886, instead of 1893/1894.

 

[TastySpam]

President Frederick von Hohenzollern
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King Frederick III of Prussia, by virtue of the Constitution of the North German Confederation, also served as the President of North Germany. In order to tie the nations of the North German Confederation closer, Frederick actually asked not to be referred to King Frederick in international correspondence. Instead, he went by the name President Frederick von Hohenzollern. This further scandalized the Prussian Court. Indeed, the ten years of his rule would be marked by constant warfare between Frederick and his Chancellor, Otto von Bismarck, who was quickly reappointed as Wilhelm I was dying (just so Bismarck could foil the new King).

The new President quickly found himself without friends. The Conservative Junkers naturally loathed him from the start. Frederick generally got along poorly with the Catholics, as he tended to be a Protestant chauvinist. The National Liberals, under Heinrich von Treitschke, strongly opposed Frederick when Frederick vetoed attempts by the liberals to disenfranchise Jews. In 1880, he gave an impassioned speech against anti-semitism that scandalized many. Surprisingly, he more or less got along with only his son, Crown Prince Wilhelm, who politically disagreed with his father, but still liked him. President Frederick notably provided all the funding Wilhelm asked with regards to his pet project in the Congo, as Frederick was largely not aware of the atrocities going on, viewing it instead as a progressive anti-slavery project.

Although Frederick realized he didn't have the support to fire Bismarck, he did try to constantly go around Bismarck's head to the other members of the Cabinet. The irony was that Frederick was trying to devolve more power from the Chancellor and King to the Reichstag (of the North German Confederation) or even the Zollparlament of the Zollverein, but the Reichstag hated him. The Zollparlament was also an absolute disaster, largely because Bavaria returned an almost consistently anti-NGF list, especially as Frederick was hostile to Catholicism. This meant that Frederick would try to devolve power to the Reichstag, but the Reichstag generally supported Bismarck. The National Liberals and Free Conservatives were the largest bloc in Parliament. The next largest bloc was the German Conservatives, who were even more right-wing than Otto von Bismarck, openly opposing the pursuit of German unification because they did not want any more Catholics in Germany. The next largest bloc besides Frederick supporters was the Christian Social Party, under Adolf Stoecker (Wilhelm I's chaplain), which combined German nationalism, progressive economic policies, and virulent anti-semitism.

The seat totals of parliament were generally fairly stable. With 297 seats in the Reichstag, there were generally around 80~ National Liberals and 40~ Free Conservatives (120 seats), 60~ Conservatives, 20~ oppositional Catholics (including Poles), 50 Progressives, 40 Social Christians, and some mixture of randoms (like angry Danes). Most worrying for Frederick, the Progressives actually did best in Baden and Wurtemburg, which were part of the Zollparlement but not the Reichstag. Eager to devolve power to a parliament but not one that would immediately vote in Bismarck, Frederick actually managed to outmaneuver him.

First, the Zollparlement mostly overlapped with the Reichstag - members in the Reichstag all became members of the other, as legislated by Bismarck in 1868. Thus, the 297 Reichstag members all sat in the 382-seat Zollparlement, which had 14 members from the Grand Duchy of Baden, 17 members from the Kingdom of Wurttemburg, 48 from the Kingdom of Bavaria, and 6 members from the southern half of the Grand Duchy of Hesse and by Rhine (the Northern half was represented in the Reichstag; this was a very confusing affair for all involved.)

Plotting with the hardcore conservative Prussian junkers, President Frederick had the Progressives, Conservatives, and Bavarian Catholics, who formed a narrow 192/382 majority of the Zollparlement, vote to kick out the Bavarian delegation. The President of the North German Confederation conspiring to kick out the Bavarians with Bavarian assistance seemed a hilarious farce. Then, Frederick held a vote to delegate the authority of the Reichstag entirely to the new Zollparlement, where the National Liberals, Catholics (the Catholics were the second party in Baden and Wurttemburg) and Progressives voted in favor. Having "accomplished" German unification in a sense, Frederick's first act was to draft an edict whereupon the Hohenzollern monarchy disclaimed the right to appoint the Chancellor, delegating that task instead to the new Zollparlement. Immediately, the new Zollparlement fired Bismarck, something Frederick could not do himself, and replaced him with Eduard Lasker of the National Liberal Party, who had always advocated for integrating Baden. This actually caused a roughly 50/50 split in the National Liberal Party (which split between pro-Bismarck and pro-Frederick). Thus, in the new 334-member Zollparlement, the new Liberal Union (pro-Frederick) thus had around 110~ members, the new Liberal Conservatives had about 80~ (pro-Bismarck), the Conservatives 60~, the Catholics 30~, and the Social Christians around 50.

Of course, this created a truly strange situation. Baden and Wurttemburg were still independent countries with independent armies, that nevertheless could send representatives to the Zollparlement that governed the North German Confederation. In addition, Frederick hadn't been able to actually pass anything resembling a Constitution and was still unable to. Bismarck kept the Liberal-Conservatives in opposition, the Prussian Conservatives refused to accept any kind of Constitution, and the Catholics also refused to accept. This created an anti-constitutional majority opposition of roughly 170/334 members, reinforced by a bloc of 50 or so Social Christians who supported a constitution, but hated President Frederick for being so pro-Jewish. As such, German constitutional monarchy remained not something written, but merely convention that President Frederick had set. He was okay with this, as his model, Great Britain, also did not have a written Constitution, just a strong tradition of parliamentary supremacy. In order to appoint Lasker, President Frederick declared that the Zollparlement had a right to choose a Chancellor based on a majority vote, but in the absence of any such majority vote, he had the right to appoint someone, which he claimed would be Lasker based on his position as part of Parliament's largest bloc. Frederick further outraged the conservatives by vetoing proposed Anti-Socialist Laws, even though it was a possible Socialist who assassinated his father. Frederick instead blamed the Poles, even though it was a German in Posen.

Ironically, Otto von Bismarck, having overridden the Landtag of Prussia after pushing the "Lückentheorie" (the idea that the Crown had the right to unilaterally act if the Crown and Parliament could not come to an agreement), retreated into the Landtag of Prussia to oppose Frederick. Frederick was actually unable to reform the Prussian three-class franchise system, largely because Bismarck ironically led large parliamentary majorities in Prussia constantly vetoing such laws. Ironically, Frederick's belief in constitutional monarch made him rule like an absolute monarch in Prussia and adopt the Lückentheorie in order to pass budgets, such as the one to fund the Congo Free State, which Bismarck opposed. Bismarck spent his years in opposition slowly cultivating relations between the Liberal-Conservatives and the Conservatives, realizing that the two, if combined, would form the largest opposition bloc at roughly 140 members.

North Germany was so consumed by domestic struggles, it was actually quite fascinatingly just not a diplomatic actor abroad. Frederick completely neglected the North German Army and Navy, which did not go unnoticed by the other powers. This actually allowed North Germany to gain a surprising bounty at the 1884 Congress of Kiev that carved up Africa. However, in 1885, the North German General Staff realized that such gains were precisely because the nations of Europe did not see them as anything like a threat. In addition, they were strongly opposed to the expulsion of Bavaria, terrified by the Franco-Austrian Alliance, and even further terrified by the Franco-Russian Alliance. In late 1885, discontent with Frederick had reached a boiling point.

 

[TastySpam]

Prussia Uber Alles
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Prussia was always described as not a nation with an army, but rather an army with a nation. But what would happen in such a nation if the army thought itself persecuted? The military and diplomatic decline of the North German Confederation and the death of the dream of German unification outraged much of the rank and file of the German Army. The General Staff of the Prussian Army, although opposing Frederick, were still ultimately loyal based on their notion of duty. But one radical general in particular was particularly angry.

Colmar Freiherr von der Goltz, was the former North German military attache to the Confederate States of America for several years, forcibly recalled by the North German government after the outbreak of the Confederate-Spanish War.[1] Upon returning to Germany, he saw a Prussian Army that had totally fallen into decay thanks to Frederick. In addition, Goltz had gained an understanding of warfare far more advanced than most at the time. Having deeply studied the American Civil War and becoming fluent in English while teaching the next generation of young Confederate officers, Goltz came to the conclusion that the South won not through superior military tactics, weaponry, or technology, but rather because they mobilized their entire population (well, excluding blacks) in a "people's war" in a "nation of arms" to resist the Union, which was simply too exhausted to complete its advance into the South. In turn, he also became enamored with the military tradition of the South, viewing the common Southern farmer as "strong, resilient, independent warriors", which he contrasted negatively to Germans, who he thought "corrupted, weakened, and feminized" by liberalism, socialism, and all kinds of isms he associated with Frederick. He foresaw the future of what would be called "total war."

After the death of Prince Friedrich Karl of Prussia, which Goltz had served under in the Austro-Prussian War, Otto von Bismarck twisted a casual comment of Frederick's to imply disrespect for his cousin. Bismarck feigned outrage and tabled a motion of no-confidence in Frederick's Prime Minister Lasker, which shockingly passed after the Catholics voted with Bismarck. Bismarck, although anti-Catholic, had somehow managed to convince the ferociously anti-Catholic Conservatives, his Liberal-Conservatives, and the Catholics into joining together to topple the also anti-Catholic liberals and make him the new Chancellor. President Frederick, outraged, and seeing every single one of his fears combined (Protestant and Catholic "reactionaries" mobilizing against his liberalism), broke the convention he himself set and refused to accept Bismarck's nomination, choosing instead another Progressive.

This was the final straw for Goltz. Having then returned to teach a class at the Prussian Staff College, he gathered up many of his even more radical students, where they drafted a manifesto denouncing Frederick the Great. Marching many of these young officers and their subordinates, they quickly surrounded the Berlin Palace. Frederick called on his subjects to defend "constitutional order" in Germany, but the workers of Germany were apathetic, largely alienated from liberalism. The German Socialists were honestly salivating over a military government because they felt it'd be easier to oppose and defeat. Frederick called upon the Prussian General Staff to disperse the radical officers, but von Moltke, deeply conservative, wasn't willing to aid in the coup, but he wasn't particularly willing to help, declaring himself an "apolitical servant of the Prussian Army."

Having taken Frederick into custody and put him under house arrest, the coup planners declared that Frederick III had officially abdicated as King of Prussia and that the throne had passed to his more conservative son, Wilhelm II, who was currently in the Congo. It was at that point when the socialists decided to make their move, shutting down the streets as their protesters marched. The coup forces responded in violence. By the time Wilhelm II received the news, Berlin was in fire. Wilhelm's actions surprised all of Europe. The power-hungry, right-wing Prussian prince...immediately declined the throne, declaring his father Frederick III as the rightful monarch of Prussia. Wilhelm II, while politically disagreeing with his father and actually agreeing with most of Coltz's beliefs, still respected Frederick and refused to cooperate. This blindsided Coltz.

An awkward stand-off occurred as the military government refused to relinquish control, but everyone knew that they would do so eventually. Finally, an agreement was brokered by unsurprisingly, the mastermind of the entire process, Otto von Bismarck. In the Compromise of Berlin, Frederick agreed to sign a document permanently disclaiming the Prussian King's right to fire the Chancellor (who would be appointed not by the King or Zollparlament, but the Prussian Landtag, which did not have universal suffrage), veto legislation, and ever interfere in the policies of the Prussian Landtag, which Bismarck understood was a bastion of Prussian conservatism. In many ways, it seemed like a victory for Frederick's liberal constitutionalism. But in practice, it put an end to Frederick's desire to expand the franchise - permanently enshrining the power of an aristocratic parliament aligned behind Bismarck. Some members of the Progressives, seeing their patron's power devastated, immediately crumbled and defected to Bismarck's coalition. In the first meaningful Chancellorship election of the period, the Prussian Landtag overwhelmingly voted to appoint Otto von Bismarck, and the Zollparlement then voted overwhelmingly to support his ministry. Coltz went into exile, back in the Confederate States, where he proved extremely helpful to the Confederate War cause. Although he politically differed from the new President Mahone in many ways, he respected him as a strong leader who would put an end to "corrupt parliamentarianism."

A stunned Frederick III was returned to the Berlin Palace as the constitutional monarch he had always wished to be...even though he did not wish to become this kind of constitutional monarch. After years of bouncing between power and the opposition between 1870 and 1885, Bismarck had finally been returned to the power that he had always wanted. Operating with total impunity, Bismarck worked to both rebuild the North German Army and Navy, institute protective tariffs to product North German industry, and make the best out of what was largely an extremely bad German diplomatic situation, signing non-aggression treaties with Russia, Britain, and Italy. Bismarck also immediately outlawed the Socialist Party, blaming Berlin street violence on them. Finally, Bismarck also cut funding to Wilhelm's project in the Congo, helping precipitate the crisis of 1888. Bismarck was about to engage on a dramatic social program to address the concerns of the Socialists (and weaken them in the process) when President Frederick III's cancer significantly worsened, leading to his death, and passing the throne officially to his son. The new King, Wilhelm II, made his first action after resolving the Belgium crisis to immediately fire Otto von Bismarck, who he still held a grudge against due to his participation in the plot against Frederick and his cutting of funds to the Congo. Ironically, Bismarck had perfectly set up German politics for him to rule indefinitely, and it was only the unexpected death of his great rival that turfed him.

The Prussian Landtag exploded in rage at Wilhelm, arguing that he had no right to fire the North German Chancellor. As a concession, Wilhelm understood that the Prussian Landtag was actually significantly more reactionary than Bismarck, and simply told them they had the right to choose someone more to their liking. The King withdrew his choice, Leo von Caprivi (who was seen as too liberal), and deferred to the Prussian Landtag, who left all parties unhappy by appointing Robert von Puttkamer, Otto von Bismarck's brother-in-law and current Prime Minister of Prussia, vacating that role to his deputy, Hans von Kanitz. The Landtag thought this was a way to compromise between Bismarck and Wilhelm II, but it would take German politics in a direction greatly opposed by Bismarck.
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[1] OTL, he was sent to the Ottomans, but ITL, the Ottomans are still mad at Germany for abandoning them to the Treaty of San Stefano, so they get someone else. That makes serious ripples in Turkish history BTW.

 

[TastySpam]

The Muslim Empires
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The Qajar Dynasty of Iran was notably caught in the middle of two Empires, British and Russian. Iran had a weak military, an unpopular monarch, and religious strife. The Shah, Naser al-Din, was in theory a reformer but also had deeply dictatorial tendencies, having executed his reformist Prime Minister, Amir Kabir. Religious strife still existed, partially because Amir Kabir had previously had the Bab, the eventual prophet of the Bahai faith, executed. As he grew older, Naser al-Din became less interested in reforming the state and more interested on just profiting on lucrative trade with the West, allowing Iran to fall into hideous debt. However, with Anglo-Russian relations worsening, the situation in Persia grew much more unstable. As a general rule of thumb, Russian merchants dominated northern Iran, while British merchants dominated southern Iran along the coasts. The British largely saw Iran as a strategic point - it was necessary to keep Iran neutral in order to prevent any other power, chiefly Russia, got too close to British India. The Russians largely saw Iran as economic - a place to dump Russian manufactured goods.

The Iranians generally sought a third power to help balance out the British and the Russians. However, they were largely unable to find a power not aligned with either of those. The most receptive nation was Italy, but Italy also didn't really have a meaningful way to exert power in Iran. As a result, they were forced to choose between Britain and Russia. Thanks to Alexander II's foreign policy decisions, it was not a difficult choice. Russia had been humiliated in the Panjedeh crisis and it had a notoriously hostile and long border with the British-allied Qing. Alexander II was perfectly willing to give up most of his concessions in Iran in order to rectify the humiliation of Panjedeh. A secret protocol signed because Naser al-Din and Russia promised Herat and other lost territories in Afghanistan to the Iranians in the event of a future confrontation. Russian bankers, funded by French bankers, also gave lenient loans to the inefficient Qajar government. When the profligate Naser al-Din inevitably defaulted, the Russians promised lenient repayment terms in exchange for alignment with Russian interests. Finally, Russia agreed to train and fully fund the "Persian Cossack Brigade", a new Russian-trained army within the Iranian Army that quickly became the most advanced in the nation. Alexander II's economic minister, Nikolai von Bunge, also knew that Russian state capacity in Central Asia and the Caucuses was awful, much like Iranian state capacity. Because attempting to collect tariffs had failed so badly, Alexander II unilaterally announced that Russian authorities would no longer be collecting tariffs on Iranian goods, which further helped bind the two nations together. Alexander also generously funded the Persian Cossack Brigade, which quickly grew larger and larger, becoming one of the most important institutions in Iranian society.

In the Ottoman Empire, Abdul Hamid II had risen to power right as the Ottomans had been crushed in the Great Eastern War. Using the war an excuse, the Sultan suspended and dissolved the Tanzimat Parliament, ruling directly from the Imperial Palace. Russia remained the great enemy, and cognizant of diplomatic developments in Iran, as well as the French takeover of Egypt, the Sultan decided to drift closer to the United Kingdom. The Sultan also decided on rapidly modernizing the Ottoman Army. The original plan was to accept Prussian officers, but in 1886, the Sultan was busy observing a different power triumph in two wars - the United States of America. The Sultan requested a military attache from newly-inaugurated President Blaine, who eager to prove America's position as a Great Power in the world, eagerly accepted. He was inclined to send Oliver Otis Howard, the staunch Republican general, but he realized that was a bad idea due to Howard's deep Christian convictions. Instead, he sent Lew Wallace, a former Union general and former ambassador to the Ottoman Empire under the Sherman Administration. Wallace would more or less be given more and more power in the Ottoman Empire due to his close friendship with Abdul Hamid, as he more or less educated an entire generation of Turkish officers in the American way of war. Instead of the French elan or the Prussian "war of movement", Wallace emphasized the bread and butter of war: supply, transport, and recruitment (a remarkably touchy issue in the multi-ethnic, multi-religious Ottoman Empire). Much to the chagrin of Blaine, Wallace frustrated Blaine's desires of establishing colonial concessions and privileges in the Ottoman Empire.

Sultan Abdul Hamid II, having seen almost all of his European territories stripped away by the Russians, decided to redefine the Ottoman State as an Pan-Islamic Empire. However, this would drive the Ottoman Empire into a new crisis. The Russians had occupied the Eastern provinces (disproportionately Armenian) under Article 16 of the Treaty of San Stefano, which required the Ottoman State to implement religious freedom laws before the Russian troops withdrew. The Russians were clearly integrating the Armenian population under Russian institutions, which drew outrage from the Sublime Porte. Independent from Russia, a national revival of Armenian culture flourished in the 1880's as Armenians outside of Armenia rushed to rediscover old Armenian texts, language, and literature. This greatly disturbed Abdul Hamid II.

Unfortunately for the Armenians, the Russian area of occupation wasn't all of territories inhabitated by Armenians - it included Kars and Gayar and even as far as Erzurum, covering most of Armenian vilyats. However, there were many Armenians outside of those territories, and they quickly fell prey to Kurdish bandits, who were implicitly recognized by the Ottoman Empire to "defend" the territorial integrity of the Ottoman Empire. Support was more than implicit at times, with the Ottomans funneling weapons to the bandits and giving them census rolls, which aided in the massacres. By the 1890's, Armenians were not only seen as a pro-Russian Fifth Column - they were also treated as unwanted outsiders in Abdul Hamid II's Islamic Empire, causing the body count to rise daily as entire villages were sacked by implicitly Ottoman-backed rebels. The Armenian Crisis would eventually spark a major international crisis and eventually be seen as one of the precursors to the Great War.

 

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This map might be right or might not, circa 1889.

 

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President Mahone (1888-1891)
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Immediately after the signing of the Treaty of Rio in November of 1888, the new President of the Confederate States immediately got back to work - trying to reform the country his own way. President Mahone was actually suspected of prolonging the peace negotiations until immediately after the 1887 midterm elections so he could justify having a military presence in almost all of the voting booths and effectively disenfranchise Georgia. Those suspicions were entirely correct. Mahone promised to be a one-term President, but pointed out that his current term didn't "count as a term", because it wasn't a full term. This was generally considered an accurate interpretation of the Constitution.

Generally, the greatest threat to Mahone's presidency was considered to be the most popular man in the Confederacy, James Longstreet, who had famously defeated the Spanish in Cuba. Although by most objective definitions, the Confederacy had been horribly defeated and humiliated in the Spanish-Confederate War, it was very important for the CSA to portray it as the ultimate victors. This involved a great deal of diplomatic backpedaling where the CSA argued that it never had any intention of annexing Cuba and that it was always interested in Cuban independence and that the Treaty of Rio was thus a victory for the CSA. The new narrative that developed in the CSA, pushed by President Mahone himself, was that the Confederacy would have won an even greater victory had it not been "stabbed in the back" and had it a stronger navy. However, Longstreet, surprising most, was actually quite politically sympathetic to Mahone's cause. He was appointed the Military Governor of Georgia and elected handily as Governor of Georgia when Georgia was quickly readmitted into the Confederacy.

Mahone understood fairly well who his political base were: working-class whites, newly emancipated slaves in Georgia/Florida/South Carolina/North Carolina, and his home state of Virginia. Moreover, he had a massive majority (roughly 6/7ths) in the House, but not the Senate (due to only half of the Senate being up in 1888, he had barely 2/3rds of the Senate). In reaction, he decided to cement that majority. Permanently. The Confederate Congress notably had the right, to with a 2/3rds vote, determine taxes between states. Mahone simply announced that any state that did not immediately prohibit poll taxes and literacy tests would be immediately suffer from a deeply punitive tax on its exports to other Confederate States, a clear abuse of this power. It was also unconstitutional. The states and their attitude towards Mahone was largely determined by whether their governor was elected during a presidential year (aka, the normal election of 1885), or the military-administered election of 1888. The latter were unsurprisingly friendly to Mahone. The former were not. The only state to call Mahone's bluff was Mississippi, which suffered greatly until the Supreme Court struck down the law as unconstitutional. Surprisingly, Mahone then backed down. After all, the other states had already amended their Constitutions before they realized that Mississippi's gambit succeeded. Mahone wasn't actually particularly progressive on racial issues and had himself personally favored a ban on miscegenation - but he was profoundly pragmatic, and understood that black voters could be a potential vote pool for his cause.

Mahone's real passion wasn't social reform or even abolitionism (despite being celebrated as the Father of Confederate abolitionism), but rather industrial and military development, and Mahone believed that he had to bulldoze most of the South's pre-existing economic elites in order to do this. His economic model wasn't the United States or Great Britain, but late industrializers like Germany, Russia, and Japan. Like in those countries, industrialization was pushed primarily to support the army. Thus, the Bragg arsenals were dramatically expanded in a network of arsenals, with the Confederate Arsenals operating giant metalworks themselves. Although the Constitution prohibited money on "internal improvements", all of these expenditures were actually classified as national defense.

Similarly, Mahone was a fervent believer in public education and although some states agreed with Mahone's positions (such as Virginia, North Carolina, Texas, and the new Georgia) many other states were suspicious of such spending, especially states that loathed the idea of having to pay to educate blacks. In the same way that the Prussian schools inspired Northerners such as Horace Mann, another Prussian would inspire the new Confederate public school system. Mahone was closely advised by the exiled Prussian general, Colmar Freiherr von der Goltz, who had left Germany after his coup against Frederick had failed. Goltz was primarily an educator in Prussia and his innovation was suggesting that the Confederate Army also directly sponsored "military education" for children, especially in areas where state governments tended to be stingy. Notably, while almost all public schools outside of theocratic North Carolina were segregated, the Confederate Military Academies were not. The schools were controversial from all sides, as many whites disliked the idea of educating blacks and many blacks suggested that they were only be trained as cannon fodder. Regardless, Prussian-style schools would teach large swaths of Confederates a mixture of combat skills, basic reading/math skills, and "patriotism to the Confederacy." Mahone also justified the schools by pointing out that "patriotic education" was necessary to prevent something like the Georgia Uprising from happening again.

Regardless, the primacy of the Confederate Army had long been established. Constitutionally, there was very little the states could do to restrict the Confederate Army simply because the Confederate President was the Commander-in-Chief and precedents from the Civil War more or less gave the Confederate President unlimited latitude to run the army as he saw fit. A Presidential ticket with no generals on it would not win a Confederate election until 1909. Ironically, the founding politicians of the CSA had prohibited political parties in Congress largely because they feared the creation of an antislavery political party that could mobilize anti-slavery sentiment, much like the hated Republican Party of Abraham Lincoln. The fact that the Confederate Congress was nonpartisan ironically made it much more difficult for anyone to mobilize opposition to President Mahone or any successors. There were plenty of planters in Congress who loathed the President, but they quickly figured it would be easier (and more profitable) to cooperate...for now.

Mahone's most controversial act was his declaration that almost all prewar debt would be "readjusted" with the assistance of American banks willing offer far more favorable interest rates for political reasons (pushed for by the Clay administration). The result was fairly disastrous for Confederate bondholders, which made the rest of the world, especially Europe, very wary on investing in the Confederacy. British investment slowly flowed out of the country, which would hurt trade development. This further increased economic dependency on the USA. In order to still maintain a modicum of foreign trade, the Confederacy decided that it required a navy. Two men in particular, threw their support for Mahone - Irvine and James Bulloch, two brothers who had long called for a Confederate naval expansion and were very much proved right during the war. The Bullochs once operated in England during the Civil War. Ironically, the English actually had a waitlist, so they redirected the Bullochs to North Germany, where the shipyards were hungry for commissions (due to the tendency of North Germany to neglect naval construction). After funding for the planned Brandenburg-class battleship was weakened (to build up the army and fortification systems), the North Germans could only afford to build 2/4 of the planned battleships. Then swooped in the Confederates, ready to purchase two. The ships were cripplingly expensive, depleting the Confederate treasury and forcing a tax hike that eventually rendered Confederate finances so terrible, the Americans would eventually have to restructure Confederate loans in exchange for more trade concessions. Mahone was aware of this and agreed on the condition that the concessions would be given only after his re-election campaign.

The Americans responded in...mostly envy, not fear. After the horrible naval losses of the Great Pacific War and the Confederate-Spanish War, the Americans grew to believe that a naval resurgence was necessary. They were less afraid of the Confederate Navy and more thinking among the lines of "well, if they can afford battleships, why can't we?" Whereas the Confederate ordered 2 battleships from abroad (and typically stealing all the technology included), President Blaine announced a program where the United States would construct 12 battleships in the next few decades (in their words, 10+2). However, being much wealthier, the United States was actually able to more or less afford such a program, albeit at the cost of diverting attention from the Army. The common thread between these programs was the young nephew of the Bullochs, the 30 year-old Theodore Roosevelt, who chose to move down South to learn from the new Confederate Navy over frustrations that the American program was too slow.

This in turn horrified the British, which had adopted the two-power theory that the British navy had to be largest than the second and third largest navies combined. Those would presumably be the French (2nd) and the American (3rd) navies, with the Russians in fourth, the Italians in fifth, the North Germans in sixth, the Austrians in seventh, the Japanese in eighth, the Spanish in ninth, and the Qing in tenth, successfully fighting off the Confederates, Brazilians, Chileans, Mexicans, and Bolivian-Peruvians for that spot (the Qing would ultimately acquire three pre-dreadnoughts, beating out all the nations with only two).

The economy, although having greatly recovered from the dark days of 1888, had begun stagnating somewhat by the time 1891 rolled around under the weight of crippling Mahone-induced debt, which the Confederacy kept on restructuring in a way that screwed domestic (but notably not US) bond-holders. The result was mediocre growth and very high inflation by 1891, which rendered the Confederate dollar a joke to most. By the 1890's, most Confederates preferred to be paid in US dollars. Although Congress was still largely loyal (at least the people elected in the military-run elections of 1888), the Confederate political class was widely under the belief that Mahone was doomed due to the weak economy, a legacy of authoritarianism, overall radicalism, and the fact that he had no more excuse to have the military administer the elections. They gleefully nominated the old President, John Morgan, who campaigned on a "return to normalcy", uniting a wide swath of the political spectrum. Mahone supporters typically lambasted his slogan as a "return to slavery." The Confederate Elections of 1891, likely the freest and most universal up to this point in Confederate history, would forever alter the political culture of the Confederacy.

 

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The South American Naval Arms Race and Civil War
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Amusingly, the most vicious naval arms race would take place not even in Europe or Asia, but rather South America. The aftermath of the Great Pacific War, which was almost entirely decided on sea, not on land, made several Latin American countries realize how important naval power was. The ongoing Confederate-Spanish War also taught them this. In addition, the peace between Peru-Bolivia (often just called the Andean Confederation) and Chile left neither side particularly happy.

In addition, the Americans were not allowed to help negotiate the territorial dispute between Peru-Bolivia and Paraguay [1] because they were quite reasonably seen as too close to Peru-Bolivia. The Confederates were eventually brought in to help negotiate, but they were rather unhelpful and their diplomats were eventually pulled back due to the outbreak of war with Spain. As a result, South American nations quickly became playing fierce power politics.

The Chileans and the Paraguayans shared an enemy in Peru-Bolivia, so military cooperation between them became quite the norm. Chile and Peru-Bolivia both rebuilt their navies with gusto, gaining overseas partners. Immediately after the end of the Great Pacific War, the Chileans ordered the construction of the Capitán Prat from French shipyards. Upon its completion in 1886, it became the most advanced pre-dreadnought battleship in the New World. The Chilean Navy became so strong, that when José Manuel Balmaceda lost the confidence of the Conservative Congress and Conservative-dominated Navy, he realized that the situation was hopeless, and instead of possibly starting a civil war, he immediately resigned.

The power of the Chilean navy terrified the Argentinians, who immediately embarked on their own massive ship-building program. Relations between the two nations had been extremely poor after the Chilean delegation stormed out of the 1881 boundary negotiations with regards to Patagonia due to (correct) allegations that the Argentinians were allowing the Americans to supply Bolivian-American forces in the Great Pacific War through Argentinian territory. The Argentinians, perhaps drawing on large amounts of immigration from Italy (which only increased due to America being seen as unfriendly to Catholics), contracted with various Italian shipyards to build their own navy, ordering the battleship Independencia.

In turn, the massive Argentinian naval build-up also inspired yet ANOTHER South American nation to enter the ludicrous South American arms race. The Brazilian Navy was seen as particularly powerful, with two powerful battleships, the Riachuelo and Aquidabã. This took place under the powerful Joaquim Marques Lisboa, Marquis of Tamandare. The Marquis of Tamandare, having been literally old enough to start his service in the Navy of Portugal-Brazil, was a well-respected leader. He was put in charge of a second naval buildup that was sparked by fears of continued American intervention in South America, especially because after the Paraguay-Brazil border compromise, it had been the policy of the Brazilian government to support Paraguay against Argentinian and Andean territorial claims. It became feared that the United States would use its navy to pressure Brazil. As a result, the Brazilians added another two top-of-the-line ships to their Navy between 1885-1889, leapfrogging the Chileans into becoming the most powerful navy in the Americas.

This naval build-up would have a remarkable influence in the Brazilian Civil War of 1890. Coffee oligarchs were enraged that the Brazilian monarchy had totally abolished slavery in 1890. It was originally to be done in 1888, but it was temporarily delayed by Brazil's hosting of the Confederate States and Spain in the Conference of Rio de Janeiro, since it might have jeopardized Confederate participation by making it seem like Brazil had an axe to grind against them. Regardless, in 1891, a military coup was launched against the Emperor of Brazil by Deodoro da Fonseca and Floriano Peixoto. Largely successful, they seized control of the capital, declaring Congress abolished, the Monarchy abolished, and a new Republic established. However, several royalists were furious, especially after the death of Emperor Pedro II as he was fleeing the nation. Conspiracy theorists quickly arose, claiming that Pedro II had been murdered by the revolutionaries.

Although the army largely supported the Federalist Revolution, it was opposed strongly by the Navy. In addition, two foreign leaders both had been carefully eyeing the Brazilian Revolution. The Brazilian Navy responded by going completely AWOL, parking outside of Rio, and starting to bomb positions of the Brazilian Army. The Rio Grande do Sul revolted again, claiming that the Federalist government sought to crush their autonomy once again. In addition, Antonion Conselheiro, a mystic prophet in Northern Brazil (in Bahia) was gathering followers, claiming (accurately) that the Republic was a conspiracy of slaver oligarchs. In many cases, his men were joined by veteran soldiers who had sailed directly from the Christian Commonwealth of North Carolina to protect them. This caused his numbers to swell, which caused local Brazilian army troops to retaliate against them. Immediately, war was to also break out in Bahia.

The Brazilian Federalists still had the loyalty of most of the army. What was to break their spirit was horrifying information. The French were on their way. Princess Isabel, now to many, Empress Isabel, was an ultramontist married to Gaston, the Count of Eu, the grand-son of King Louis Philippe of the House of Orleans. Napoleon IV, unlike his father, deeply sought the support of the Orleanists in France, under Prince Philippe, Count of Paris, who also more or less inherited the Legitimist claim to the French throne as well. Prince Philippe, a genuine democrat, had even signed up for the Union Army in the American Civil War to help defeat the slavery. Napoleon IV came to him with a simple offer. If was willing to renounce his claim to the French throne, the entire House of Orleans would be welcomed back to France, given all of their old titles (minus the actual monarchy), and the French Army be immediately deployed to help his cousin, Gaston (who he grew up with in the Clermont Mansion in Surrey, England). After all, if Napoleon III triumphed gloriously in Mexico, why couldn't Napoleon IV triumph gloriously in Brazil? Best of all, the British public was remarkably sympathetic to the Orleanists, and although the British government loathed any flexing of French power abroad, they had no standing to condemn them. They tried to get the Confederates to do their dirty work for them, but this failed, especially as the Confederates were too internally divided to do anything like this. Eventually however, they found two ways to accomplish their objectives.

Worst of all for the Federalists, that wouldn't even be the only foreign interloper. Prince Pedro Augusto, increasingly estranged from the rest of the Brazilian Imperial Family, still believed himself to be the best successor to Pedro II, especially as many members of the abolished Congress actually supported him. He also became increasingly erratic. President James Blaine had been eagerly looking for a way to flex American power abroad during his regime. Inviting Augusto Pedro from exile to Washington D.C., the United States announced the reestablishment of the Monroe Doctrine in the aftermath of the American triumph in the Spanish-Confederate War, recognizing Augusto Pedro as the legitimate Emperor of Brazil. American marines were immediately deployed down the East Coast, to fight a second war in South America. Due to close American relations with Peru-Bolivia in the wake of the Great Pacific War, this translated into those nations allowing supplies to float to the Federalists, even though the Imperial Navy had mostly blockaded the nation.

The Federalists had a few surprising friends in the war. First, the North Germans pretty much reflexively opposed anything the French did, so a North German military attachment was quickly drilling Federalist Brazilian troops in the Prussian way of warfare. Italian supplies, from the reasonably powerful Italian navy, were also flowing into Brazil. The British gave them full access through Gibraltar, which quickly brought Italy and Britain closer together in diplomacy. Finally, Great Britain remained officially neutral, but one seemingly independent nation didn't. The Dominion of Canada, increasingly divided on religious lines and in the middle of a Culture War with the Catholic Church, immediately jumped to support President Peixoto of the Federalists (Fonseca died not soon after taking power as President).

Argentina most notably enjoyed close relations with both Italy and the United States, so it took the unusual position of supporting both Peixoto and Augusto Pedro. In contrast, the British public (and its donations) were largely divided between Peixoto and Isabel. That being said, the two Royalist factions didn't actually spend that much time fighting each other - they spent most of their time fighting the Federalists, especially as Augusto Pedro's base of support quickly became the far South and Isabel's base the far North. The prosperity of Pedro II's reign was to end in the most brutal spat of violence to ever hit Brazil.
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[1] OTL, President Hayes helped resolve this dispute!

 

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O'Canada
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One issue that divided Canada was the notion of whether the Dominion of Canada would adopt a more centralized government, or a more federal government, much like the United States and the Confederate States. The failure of the United States (ie, the secession of the South) made both the predominantly Anglo-Protestant Liberals and the Franco-Catholic Conservatives wary of federalizing the nation, fearful that the other would simply secede if they didn't get their way on the national stage. This was viewed as a disastrous notion, because the French and English-speaking regions weren't actually quite contiguous. Manitoba was predominantly French, as was Quebec. Ontario and Rupertsland was mostly English. The decision was to directly govern the entire nation from Ottawa, much like the United Kingdom.

This partly was accepted because as the dividing lines in politics during the 1870's were largely linguistical, this forced both parties to balance industrial and agricultural interests. The Liberals needed the support of Ontarian industrialists and Columbian farmers - the Conservatives needed the support of Quebec industrialists and Manitoban farmers. Government in Canada was largely defined...lack of much government at all. The only thing that the parties could agree on was the Canadian Chinese Exclusion Act, which saw a total ban on Chinese immigrants. Many Canadians closely followed the American riots in California and as would be usual throughout history, Canadian thinkers would reflexively do the opposite of America. Similarly, Canada would place no restrictions on Catholic immigrants from Europe - which meant that many Catholics, turned away from Port Ellis in New York, would simply sail up north to Canada instead of sailing back to Europe. By most standards, a majority of immigrants to Canada might actually have been Catholic, which caused many to suspect the Conservatives would gain a long-term majority. They were wrong.

Ultimately, the logjam between the Liberals and the Conservatives would be shattered by a surprising development - the declaration of the Roman Union. Widely rejected in the Catholic world as a puppet tool of the anticlerical Italian government, the Canadian Conservatives splintered. Manitobans were oddly one of the few Catholic regions on Earth to actually largely accept the Roman Union. In many ways, this was also pragmatic. Manitoban acceptance of the Roman Union came during a time of endemic Orangeman terrorism - and the adoption of the Roman Union in Manitoba caused the Liberals to agree to send military force to crush them. This was also partly due to Manitoban leader Louis Riel embracing the Roman Union. In contrast, much more conservative Quebec obviously rejected the Roman Union, and this split caused the Liberals to ultimately triumph by the 1880's. This was because eventually, the Conservative Party openly schismed, as the Conservative MPs from Manitoba joined the Liberals in a vote that gave them a sufficient majority to recognize the Roman Union's right to run schools in Manitoba. This incident could be traced to the Manitoba War, which was settled with the Dominion of Canada agreeing to fund most religious private schools (mostly Francophone Catholic) in Manitoba. The recognition that schisming Roman Union priests had the right to use church property and teach church classes outraged the Quebec delegation, which quickly ejected the Manitoba MPs. However, the Pope in Avignon, enraged by the Manitoba coup, issued a non-expedit for Canadian Catholics to not participate in Canadian elections. The chaos around all of this allowed the Liberals to more or less waltz into power, relatively unopposed, as they devastated the Conservative Party in Quebec. Ironically, the Conservative expellees in Manitoba would become the last Conservatives standing.

George Brown, long stalwart of the Liberal Party of Canada, simply died right before it was his time to shine. The Scottish-born Alexander Mackenzie took over the reigns, during essentially a challenging period. Tariffs with America remained consistently extremely high and attempts of the Liberal government to pry open trade with the US constantly failed. The rump Conservatives in Manitoba, desperate not to be confined to Manitoba, confirmed the leadership of the Anglo-Quebecer John Rose until his death in 1888. Fights with local governments were common and although almost all of them ended with the Privy Council siding with the national government, Canada remained a politically unstable colony. Sectarian strife, often in the form of various blood feuds in Western Canada, also horrified audiences in London, Toronto, and Montreal. In many ways, the instability of Canadian politics gave British bureaucrats pause when granting more autonomy to colonies in Oceania and South Africa.

On the other hand, investment in America was rare, but investment from Britain was high, especially in Western Canada. Mackenzie deftly took advantage of this situation by simply getting London to pay for the rest of the Canadian Pacific Railway (a project began by Mackenzie's Conservative predecessor), which British Columbia had always demanded as a prerequisite for officially joining the Canadian Confederation. Mackenzie was always skeptical of the railroad, but unable to actually cancel it, his plan was to simply get London to pay for it, which they did. With their demands met, BC officially joined not soon after, pushed by both Ottawa and London.

As Afghanistan was technically still independent, the Canadian-Alaska border was the only direct land border between Russia and the British Empire. The British openly encouraged heavy Western settlement, including widespread Canadian adoption of personal firearm ownership. Parliament not only permitted weapons ownership in Western Canada - it mandated as such. Secretary of State Wilfrid Laurier (a Roman Union Catholic) was given the responsibility of creating a small Canadian Navy, which was largely intended on interdicting any Russian ships that came too close to the Canadian coast. Laurier was also instrumental in the Canadian intervention in Brazil. Hoping to establish Canada as an "independent" nation and as a French Catholic, Laurier believed that a conflict would help unite Canada. In addition, he had secured promises of British assistance in both funds and equipment, which were already on their way. In response to calls from the Federalist government of Brazil, Prime Minister Mackenzie called up the Canadian Militia (which had been exceedingly well-drilled in the last decade), before forces of the Royal Canadian Navy (essentially British ships that had been transferred over) were deployed to Brazil. Participation in the Brazilian War would most likely be the first of many defining moments of Canadian nationhood, for better or worse.

 

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The Confederate Elections of 1891
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The elections, according to most of the Southern political class, seemed decided. Mahone was a tyrant who had illegally seized power, who oversaw a humiliating defeat of the Confederacy against the Spain, including a blatant Mexican land grab that was the ultimate humiliation. Under his rule, Confederate independence had seemed to have reached a nadir, and now his regime was hit by economic stagnation. The legitimate President, John Morgan, seemed as if he were to cruise towards a crushing victory that would finally "redeem" the South.

The results on election day, thus came as a shock to many. Across the country, unprecedented turnout lifted Mahone to a shocking win in precinct and precinct. As the news came in, the Morgan campaign seemed to be in total shock as it appeared that almost every single state had decided against Morgan. He had won in Mississippi, where poll taxes kept turnout low, but he lost everywhere else. Louisiana and his home state of Alabama seemed like toss-ups, but every other state had gone for Mahone by wide margins, ending the presidential race. The results in Congress were the same, as no-name random politicians who nobody had ever heard of swept over incumbent anti-Mahone politicians in the Congress. Recently enfranchised poor whites (and in the immediately emancipated states of the former Provisional Confederate States of America, blacks), while perhaps not huge fans of Mahone, still opted for him over Morgan. Soon after the election, the economy began to pick up again as Mahone declared the Confederacy "open for business" to European and American investors. Mahone famously declared a policy of granting mineral and settlement rights in the direct vicinity of any railroad built by a foreign power. This immediately sparked a railroad frenzy in the Confederate States, as British, French, and American investors tripped over each other to build railroads in the Confederate States. The widespread presence of foreign concessions and railroads led to economic recovery, but further terrified the Confederate political class.

It was quickly decided by the Confederate political class that their opportunity to defeat Mahone and "Mahonism" at the ballot box had passed. As a result, they largely grew to believe that Mahone could only be defeated through "extra-constitutional measures." And as they did not have the army on their side, this meant only one thing: terrorism. Bombings of Mahone government officials and against Mahone himself by "Redeemers" became widespread in the Confederacy. Mahone partisans often decided to take "revenge" into their own hand. The Confederacy quickly became convulsed by daily bombings in the major cities, as anti and pro-Mahone militants tried to shoot and bomb each other. With tacit support from the Administration, Mahone partisans generally had a better record in the combat, very much further destroying the political influence of the Confederate Old Guard. However, widespread public discontent with political violence created an opening for a third force.

Ironically, anti-Mahone sentiment would be most successful not due to the efforts of the old political class, which was becoming rapidly discredited by the violence, but a growing third force. General Longstreet, although largely in alignment with Mahone on most issues, broke with him strongly over one critical issue. Longstreet was a strong believer in Prohibition, while Mahone (and Cleburne) were not. Organizing the "Confederate Prohibition Association", Longstreet quickly became the leading spokesperson of what people colloquially referred to as the Prohibition Party. Many Mahonist politicians in Congress notably joined the Prohibition Party and as a result, the Confederacy once again returned to an informal three-party system - typically referred as the Nationalists, the Prohibitionists, and the Redeemers. Longstreet, eyeing the presidential election of 1897, supported retaining most Mahonist policies, but instituting a Civil Service Reform (which would hurt many Mahone partisans, many of whom were enriching themselves through the spoils systems) as well as instituting Prohibition on a federal level (the obvious violation of States' Rights was not addressed).

 

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The US Presidential Elections of 1892
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The wildest American election since 1864 would be waged only 28 years later, the culmination of a variety of political issues, with both parties in crisis. As President, James G. Blaine had vociferously condemned laws against the use of German in Wisconsin, Minnesota, and other Midwestern states with overwhelmingly German populations, but overwhelmingly Republican governments. Blaine actually had many Catholic friends and interestingly never couched his opposition to Catholic immigration in religious or ethnic terms - he treated it as an issue of "loyalty to the Constitution", something that he felt was inevitably violated by the Ultramontanism of the Pope in Avignon. When a bill was passed declaring English the sole and official language of the United States, Blaine vetoed the bill immediately, castigating it as a xenophobic. In addition, when the Congress passed a bill levying a massive tax on alcohol (pushed by advocates of a growing Prohibition movement), Blaine vetoed the bill, calling it unconstitutional. Blaine tried to remain neutral on prohibition in hopes of alienating neither middle-class WASP Republicans or German Republicans. Unfortunately, for Blaine, he alienated both. The Prohibition Party candidate refused to drop out even though Blaine partisans insisted that they could cost the Republicans their majority. In addition, Blaine alienated many non-interventionist members of the Republican Party with his war in Brazil, which was largely unpopular as Dom Pedro Augusto seemed more and more erratic.

Luckily for Blaine, his greatest asset was the incredible disarray of the National Union Party. Leland Stanford was never a true believer in the "Anti-Oriental" cause, more or less just wielding it as a political too. His economic views were hazier, as he simultaneously combined a Robber Baron personal life with relatively progressive economic views. Regardless, the paradoxical candidate had a real aim: seizing control of the National Union Party, something he accomplished at the National Union national convention of 1892 against his rival Thomas Ewing, narrowly winning after a rousing speech by Stanford partisan Dennis Kearney. The nomination was widely seen as a hostile takeover by Stanford and many outraged National Union partisans were unsure of how to react, as many of them blamed Stanford for their defeat in 1888. Most however, realized that the National Union ticket in 1888 was doomed no matter what.

Luckily for Blaine, Leland Stanford's brilliant idea ultimately failed only because of a simple thing: he died of natural causes a week after securing the nomination. Stanford's vice-presidential nominee, the erratic Sylvester Pennoyer, took his place, which finally sparked a walkout of many National Union stalwarts, who formed the National Democratic Party. George Frisbie Hoar, a major National Union figure in the Senate who lambasted the "bigotry" of Pennoyer, teamed up with a conservative, Grover Cleveland, the mayor of Buffalo, New York, to "preserve the values of the National Union Party and the late Abraham Lincoln." They hoped they would take advantage of the most polarizing election since 1860, between two widely disliked frontrunners.

They were wrong. The National Democrats pretty much evenly from both parties, including both non-interventionist Republicans and anti-Pennoyer National Unionists, but never caught fire. In the end, the 1892 elections would be decided between two men, Pennoyer and Blaine. Pennoyer promised free silver, a ban on Chinese immigration, an escalation of the war in Brazil, legalization of trade unions, opposition to prohibition, and an end to discrimination against non-English speakers and Catholics. Many Germans, although not on board with the rest of the Pennoyer agenda, were eager to vote Blaine out, Pennoyer's erratic tendencies asides. Ultimately, the election would be one of the closest in American history.

Americans woke up the morning after the election to find the race still undecided. Pennoyer had swept almost all of the West, the upper-Midwest (the heavily German states of Wisconsin and Minnesota), and the traditional border states. The only Western state to vote Blaine was the newly admitted state of Utah, which was admitted on the promise that they'd vote Republican. Pennoyer had broken into Massachusetts and New Jersey, narrowly winning both states by under 1%. With all states but one called, the total rested at 167 Blaine, 164 Pennoyer, with Rhode Island's 4 electoral votes still to be decided. Rhode Island was a bizarre state - a majority Republican state with a majority Catholic voting bloc that was historically low turnout. Despite the best efforts of the local GOP to discourage Catholic turnout, Catholics turned out in droves to vote against Blaine. The final tally of the election in Rhode Island...saw Pennoyer win by an eye-popping 69 votes. The Rhode Island GOP immediately demanded a re-count, though it was widely believed that the recount was rigged, as it saw thousands of votes thrown out, almost all of them Pennoyer votes (from heavily Catholic neighborhoods). National Unionists in Congress were outraged, screaming voter fraud at the top of their lungs. Ultimately, seeing his friends in his old institution, the House of Representatives, scream invective at each other reminded Blaine uncomfortably of his horror at watching the violence between pro and anti-slavery advocates in the US House.

Giving one of the most famous speeches in American history, Blaine declared that he had spent his entire life fighting corruption in the United States (through civil service reform) and defending the inviolability of the Constitution (his justification for anti-Catholicism). Implicitly contrasting the United States with the Confederate States, he declared that he would not power by "imbibing a tainted chalice" by following the example set forth by Abraham Lincoln in 1864. He urged the Republican Congress to respect the original vote total from Rhode Island, which they did. In the same way that George Washington's refusal to run for a third term created a strong political precedent in the United States, so did Abraham Lincoln's concession to George McClellan in 1864. The Congress did so, certifying Rhode Island's original vote total, coronating Sylvester Pennoyer as the President-elect of the United States.

 

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The Pennoyer Administration
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President Pennoyer came in ready to make an impact. He realized that the House of Representatives, narrowly under the control of the Republicans as led by Speaker of the House Joseph Cannon was unwilling to cooperate with his aggressive legislative policy, Pennoyer realized that he would have to rule through executive action. Luckily for him, the National Union Party had seized control of the Senate in the 1890 midterms. Added to a spattering of Anti-Oriental Senators, this gave Pennoyer a fairly solid base for judicial nominations, which had fallen to a stand-still in 1890. While Cannon was notoriously partisan and completely locked National Union delegates out of the process in ramming through Blaine's aggressive agenda, this created a backlash. The pro-Pennoyer majority in the Senate was led by National Unionist Richard Bland, a hardcore supporter of Free Silver, who desperately wanted to break the one-and-a-half party system of the United States. Pennoyer was exceedingly interested in stacking the Supreme Court, largely because he had famously lost a case at the Supreme Court, Pennoyer v. Neff, which led to the near-ruination of his business. He especially loathed his personal rival, federal judge Matthew Deady, who had ruled against him at the district court level. As a result, the Pennoyer administration was fanatically concerned with judicial nominations, leading Pennoyer to personally stack the Supreme Court with people of a like-minded politics.

In many ways, Pennoyer broke a variety of presidential norms. Unable to get the House to approve a lowering of sky-high tariffs, he merely attempted to fail to properly operate the various customs agencies of the United States. When the state of California. run by hardcore anti-Orientals, simply declared that it would no longer follow the Supreme Court precedents revolving around the Privileges or Immunities clause, Pennoyer declared that no federal troops would enforce those Supreme Court laws. Republicans castigated Pennoyer as a crypto-Confederate in response. Pennoyer was in fact quite sympathetic to the Confederacy and relatively early in his career, he would plan a trip to the Confederate States. Similarly, Pennoyer, unable to actually pass a bill making silver legal tender, simply ordered federal agents to accept payments in silver. Under this rationale, even if he were voted out of office, the federal government would be sitting on an unusual amount of silver, almost forcing them to adopt silver. This also sparked outrage, as his opponents lambasted him as a tyrant. In addition, Pennoyer's backdoor method of attempting to institute free silver sparked financial chaos, causing the American economy to largely slow down. In the wake of President Mahone's devastation of bondholders, many European investors began to view Imperial Mexico as their best investment destination.

The early Pennoyer administration was dominated by labor unrest, chiefly the Pullman Strike in Chicago. Workers, led by Eugene V. Debs, went on strike against the Pullman Company, which operated one of the most infamous company towns in America, demanding a recognition of the union, an increase in wages, and a decrease in rents. In many ways, the strikes were inspired by the Haymarket riots in 1890, where the state government of Illinois executed several anarchists under sketchy evidence, alleging they had thrown a bomb, or at least known that it had been thrown. The 1890 elections had brought into power the National Union politician John Hopkins, who commuted most of the sentences. Altgeld was now siding firmly behind the Pullman strikers, as was the federal government under Pennoyer. Seeing the very bad situation for them, the Pullman Company folded, accepting the demands of the strikers and recognizing their union. This sparked a wave across industrial America, as raucous strikes began succeeding against employers. Even though there was no federal legal recognition for labour unions, some states began passing laws to protect unions, and many businesses, without government intervention, recognized unions in fear of strikes. American Railroad Union head Eugene V. Debs became famous across the country for triumphing against the Pullman Company.

In terms of foreign policy, the Pennoyer Administration was even more aggressive than Blaine, proudly brandishing the large navy that the Blaine Administration had bequeathed onto the United States. Military aid to Augusto Pedro was increased. Upon hearing news that Europe had once again plunged into a gruesome war, he saw his opportunity to implement one of his major campaign promises. In a likely unconstitutional move, Pennoyer ordered in early 1894 that American naval forces were to interdict any ships suspected of carrying Chinese laborers off the West Coast of the United States. After a British-owned/operated ship flying under the Qing banner was interdicted, the British and Qing governments responded in anger. With anti-Qing sentiment rampant among Chinese nationalist intellectuals, the Qing government realized that they needed to direct nationalist fervor away from the Manchu. A tit-for-tat escalation between a remarkably belligerent Qing government and a remarkably belligerent American government erupted.

Qing ships immediately began confiscating American merchants and their goods, under trumped up and largely untrue accusations of opium smuggling. Hilariously, these allegations were provided "evidence" by the British, who despite having actually fought the Opium Wars, saw British society strongly turn against opium and actually aid the Qing government in fighting opium. In response, the United States began denying access to America by Canadian merchants, quickly impounding both Canadian and British goods in a bid to force the British, presumably ludicrously preoccupied by a war to force their "Manchu puppets" to come to heel. However, the Qing government, realizing that the Americans had made a grievous mistake, immediately declared that all American concessions in China were temporarily suspended and split 50/50 between the British and Qing government until future notice.

It was this moment that President Pennoyer realized that he might be barreling the United States towards a very unwelcome foreign entanglement, especially with the 1894 midterms approaching. He did not want the same kind of recession that wiped out President Clay. He was aggressive and violent, but not a lunatic. He scheduled a meeting with British and Qing diplomats immediately after his Grand Tour of the Confederacy, which he felt would secure a diplomatic partner. In his meeting with President Mahone in Texas, the two Presidents celebrated the completed extension of the St. Louis-Memphis-Little Rock railroad into the city of Dallas. However, during the parade through Dallas, several Redeemer terrorists tossed various bombs into their motorcade. Most missed and splattered the street, but two of them fell directly into the car, immediately exploding and killing all the passengers, including both Presidents.

 

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"Rome Rule"
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The Irish Home Rule League was confronted with a tremendous crisis. The leader of the Home Rule Party, Isaac Butt, was a moderate who advocated for cooperation with the Liberal government under William Gladstone, which had just won re-election in 1875. However, in Christmas of 1877, the declaration of the Union of Rome outraged many supporters of the Irish Home Rule League, chief among them the Catholic Church in Ireland, which overwhelmingly denounced the Union of Rome, as did Catholic churches in most of the world outside of Manitoba, England, and Germany. Unfortunately for Butt, he also happened to a member of the Church of Ireland, making him a Protestant. This sparked a back-bench revolt against Butt, led by the obstructionist Joseph Biggar, who had ferociously opposed Butt. The most notorious figure who had turned against Butt was Charles Stewart Parnell, despite the fact that Parnell was also a Protestant. This change was heavily led by members of the Irish National Catholic League, which was quickly founded by Archbishop Thomas Croke to protest Gladstone's recognition of the Union of Rome - although they gained most of their support from farmers after they included provisions discouraging (mostly Protestant) landlordism and supporting the distribution of land to (mostly Catholic) tenant farmers. The result of this leadership challenge was however not to actually replace Butt, but rather to split the Home Rule League, which was never a fully organized political party, but rather something closer to a caucus. The smaller Butt faction and the larger Biggar faction simply sat apart from each other, often lobbing insults at each other.

The British parliament between 1874-1880 eventually became known as the Zombie Parliament, named after the walking dead corpses of Caribbean mythology (the name was coined by Randolph Churchill, a fierce opponent of Gladstone). Opponents of Gladstone derisively referred to his earlier proposals of Irish "Home Rule" as "Rome Rule" but with the creation of the Union of Rome, Gladstone openly celebrated his Home Rule proposal as Rome Rule. When he brought up the Government of Ireland Bill of 1878, the Irish MPs split (Butt for, Biggar against), as the Conservatives voted lock-step against. Most worryingly for Gladstone, several liberals, such as the newly elected Joseph Chamberlain, voted against the bill, but most were such new MPs, they brought few other MPs with them. Ultimately, the bill passed by 18 votes. A furious effort was made to stop the bill in the House of Lords, which was inclined to veto the bill and did so. However, the House of Lords backed down in the new 1879 Act, after Gladstone agreed to allow the 28 representative peers of Ireland to continue voting in the House of Lords - and then exclude all 101 Irish MPs to sit instead in the Irish "Second Order" (the original plan was to exclude only 80). The Irish First Order was also reformed, in order to gain the support of the Irish Representative Peers in the House of Lords, to remove any elected members. Originally, it had all 28 representative peers and 75 representatives elected by a restricted franchise, but the new First Order would simply be a body of all the Irish peers. This was accepted by the House of Lords, because the First Order would thus be almost entirely Protestant.

Amusingly, as a result of the bill, the next Parliament was to only elect 551 members, horn of the 101 Irish MPs. Amusingly, if you excluded the roughly 60 Irish MPs that belonged to the Liberal Party, Gladstone's Liberals by that itself would lose its majority in Parliament. This outraged the Conservatives, who mocked the "Zombie Parliament", and who mobilized in rage over British defeat in the Zulu War, Russian triumph in the Great Eastern War, and against Irish Home Rule. The results for the Liberal Party was an annihilation in the heartland of Britain. A crushing defeat saw the Conservatives triumph with 360 seats over 191 for the Liberals, putting Disraeli back in charge.

In contrast, Irish Home Rule wasn't even that popular in Ireland itself, as Irish radicals raged against the un-elected Protestant Peers of the Irish First Order. In the 1880 elections, the "National Parliamentary Party", led by Joseph Biggar and his proteges, Charles Stewart Parnell and John Dillon, won in a landslide on a platform of ending landlordism, crushing the Conservatives everywhere outside of Ulster. The disorganized remnants of the Liberals and Butt's moderates also flailed, crashing into a distant third and fourth. The Lord Lieutenant of Ireland basically occupied a similar role as the Governor-General of places like Canada, but there was no office of the Prime Minister (as the Irish Order was explicitly not an Irish Parliament). The leader of the largest party, the NPP, however, declared himself a de facto Prime Minister, passing ambitious bills to limit land taxes for tenant farmers and rents, while denying official recognition of any properties of the Union of Rome.

Ironically, Irish Home Rule thus actually weakened Irish representation in politics. The Irish Order was more or less irrelevant because the First Order vetoed almost every reform passed by the Second Order. The Conservative government notably declined to actually reverse the Irish Home Rule bill as it had originally promised, because it actually liked what it saw from Irish politics. Protestant landlords were more or less totally safe and without Irish representation in Westminster, Gladstone's proposals to reform tenant farmers by lowering rents and allowing them to purchase the land they farmed on fell on flat ears. There was actually no reason anymore that British politics had to heed Irish concerns. In response, seeing the failure of Irish Home Rule, a national tenant strike was called by the Irish National Parliamentary Party, which quickly caught fire. Angry that the government refused to even consider modest land reforms, both the First Order government in Dublin and the Conservative government in London, many tenants immediately began refusing to pay rent to their landlords, which the Tories saw as an affront to the rule of law and thus "progress."

At this time, the French Emperor, Napoleon IV was actually pursuing his own reforms in France to ensure more egalitarian distribution of land for small farmers, who largely became smallholding farmers who strongly supported the French monarchy. A grinding agricultural recession smashed into France in the 1880's, including the introduction of the mushroom phylloxera, which destroyed almost French vines. In response, Napoleon IV called for widespread agrarian reform, which would finance tenant farmers to purchase their own lands, which was cheap due to the agricultural depression. Then in order to restore agriculture, the French government hiked grain and corn tariffs, angering both the Americans and British. The North Germans complained, but this was seen as hypocritical, as the French had only increased tariffs to directly match North German tariffs (which had been demanded by landowning Prussian junkers). Anglo-French business-people lambasted the scheme as "Catholic socialism" - an insult that Napoleon IV openly embraced. Napoleon IV's land reforms often became the model for Irish tenant farmer activists, which further caused the British commercial elite to staunchly oppose land reform as a Catholic and Socialist scheme. Although the Papacy in Avignon was set to condemn anti-rent boycotts as contrary to the rule of law and sanctity of contract, modern archives reveal that Imperial French pressure nixed that proposed Papal encyclical.[1]

The 1885 election was narrowly won by the Conservatives and only after they had allowed the young Randolph Churchill to run a campaign based on expanding the franchise. However, by 1887, the country was soon in recession due to the negative economic impacts of the Spanish-Confederate War sparking a recession in the United States. Eventually, the 1890 elections would be seen as a "war election." Irish tenants, either unwilling or unable to pay rents, finally joined the tenant strike in mass. By 1888, the vast majority of tenants in Ireland weren't paying rents, with open fighting and murder on both sides as local officials tried to enforce rents. As the Irish National Party had adopted more or less a position of denying funding to the Irish Home Rule Government (and by extension, the Irish police), the British Army was the only force that could enforce rents, which Prime Minister Churchill chose to do. Britain itself rallied behind Churchill, re-electing the Conservatives in 1890 despite the recession. However, sentiment in Ireland overwhelmingly rejected the intervention of the British Army. Open violence erupted, as the Irish Republican Brotherhood began training tenant farmers to sabotage and resist the British Army. In addition, anger at the First Order bubbled, as Irish aristocrats and landlords had to constantly dodge assassination by Irish radicals. For all intents and purposes, Ireland was now under martial law. Outraging Ireland further, Charles Stewart Parnell, one of the more moderate Irish nationalists now in charge, was arrested by British forces on adultery charges and died in prison in 1891 from kidney disease, which was immediately blamed on British soldiers. Although he had been suffering from kidney disease for years, it was alleged that the British soldiers denied him medical care, causing his death. [2] This put the much more radical Dillon in charge.

Although Prime Minister Churchill seemed to be the "Lord of Electioneering" for his ability of winning two stunning victories at the age of 36 and 41, he appeared to be slowing down for some unclear reason. As the economy recovered, Churchill appeared to be romping towards another victory in 1895. Sick and horrified by the violence, Churchill's Conservatives sought to implement their own land reforms in hopes of mollifying Irish tenant farmers. The Irish situation had developed far worse than they had hoped and although firmly believing that the rule of law had to be preserved, now believed that changing the law was the only way to stop the violence. However, by then, liberal leader Joseph Chamberlain (his political star rose after the failure of Irish Home Rule, which he had opposed) openly opposed those land reform proposals, and sided with several "Ultra-Tories" to stymie them. The two parties had ironically switched positions on land reform, though it was all positioning anyways, as Westminster didn't even have the power to implement land reform in Ireland due to home rule. In addition, besides personal health issues, the United Kingdom, while fighting the Irish Land Wars, would be romping not towards one, but two cataclysmic wars.
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[1] The OTL encylical "Saepe Nos" in 1888
[2] More or less his OTL death - the ITL British didn't kill him, but that's not what people believe.

 

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The Hamidian Massacres
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Sultan Hamid II's plan to unify the Ottoman Empire was to promulgate pan-Islamic theory, which he viewed as necessary to coral both Arabs and Kurds into being loyal to the Empire. Kurdish tribes, once at odds with the Ottoman Empire, had largely been accepted into the Imperial fold, with Kurdish tribesman being officially given official status. However, this rapidly accelerated long-standing ethnic tension with neighboring Armenians. Violence between the two was remarkably common and the response of Hamid II was to arm the Kurds and set them loose on the Armenians. The resulting "Hamidian Massacres" shocked Europe, as pictures of entire villages of Armenians being murdered and dumped in mass graves became blared on newspapers. Nowhere did this arouse more ferocious anger than in Russia, which had long viewed itself as the protector of Middle Eastern Christians, especially Armenians, whose persecution in the Ottoman Empire began en masse after the conclusion of the Great Eastern War (where they were scapegoated).

Angering many, the Conservative government in Britain stood by the Ottoman Empire, more or less denying the massacres were happening at all. When the Russians insisted that the massacres were in violation of the Treaty of San Stefano, the British responded by claiming that they never recognized the Treaty of San Stefano anyways. Meanwhile, a huge revolt had broken out in Crete. In response to the Treaty of San Stefano in 1878, the Ottomans had broken off negotiations with the Cretan Revolutionary Committee. The Cretans, outraged that the Ottomans even refused to give Crete autonomy, spent years attacking Ottoman authorities. The Hamidian massacres set off a fire across Crete, where sympathetic Greco-Cretans attacked Ottoman forces. Contrary to popular wisdom, the Cretan Revolution was almost a Greek Civil War - there were relatively few Turks in Crete, but a relatively high number of Greek Muslims (who had the support of the Ottoman Empire). In many cases, this civil war was incredibly brutal, with horrible retaliations made by both sides.

The Greek media largely honed in predominantly on atrocities perpetrated against Greek Christians, outraging the nation. In 1894, the Greek Army was largely armed with 1874 Gras rifles (from France), while the Ottoman Army, under the influence of American advisors, was interestingly upgrading from the 1871 Martini-Henry to the 1888 Lee-Metford, which was notably a bolt-action multi-shot rifle, as opposed to the single-shot Gras. Realizing that the Ottoman Empire was only getting stronger but that it was currently still weak, with Ottoman territory in Thessaly not even connected by land, the Greeks demanded the Ottomans grant Crete autonomy. Prince Ignatyev of Bulgaria gave his assurances to the Greeks that Bulgaria would stay neutral in case of war between the two. Ignatyev was a pan-Slavic nationalist who famous engineered the Treaty of San Stefano before essentially being exiled from Russia by the Imperial Court by reformist Russians who wanted him out (they chose to "promote" him to be the new Prince of Bulgaria after the pro-Russian coup of 1886 in Bulgaria) - and he was not satisfied by the Treaty of San Stefano - he wanted Slavic control of the Turkish Straits. In 1894, he received no support from Russia, up until Alexander III, a relatively peaceful ruler, died of kidney disease. He was replaced by his much more aggressive son, Nicholas II, who saw an opportunity in the Ottoman Empire after the Ottomans, much to his outrage, refused to stop the massacre of Armenians.

Nicholas II gave an official guarantee to Prince Ignatieff that the Russians would preserve Bulgarian autonomy - namely, by rushing Russian troops into Bulgaria in order to prevent the Ottomans from entering - essentially detaching the autonomous principality from the Ottoman Empire. Bulgaria was technically not independent, but it essentially was. In October, 1894, the Kingdom of Greece declared war on the Ottoman Empire, claiming that it would protect both Cretan and Armenian Christians (it had no idea how the latter would be accomplished). The Principality of Bulgaria immediately declared independence from the Ottoman Empire as Russian troops marched from Bessarabia into Dobruja. However, the Ottoman Sultan, Abdul Hamid, had his own card to play. Much to the shock of the Russians, the Romanians, still incensed over the loss of Bessarabia, denied Russia the right to march through Romania. In doing so, Romania was backed up by the United Kingdom, who immediately declared that Romanian sovereignty would remain sacrosanct. Instead, unwilling to invade Romania, the Russians were forced instead to ship troops through the Black Sea into Bulgaria, dodging Ottoman naval raiders (and often suffering heavy losses). The troops that made it to Bulgaria was totally insufficient to threaten Istanbul, leading to Russian rage at the Romanians.

The Ottoman Army in Thessally, lacking reinforcements from the Ottoman Mainland, were significantly outnumbered by the Greeks. However, due to superior training and technology, the Ottoman Army was able to make the Greek Army pay a horrific price for every inch, as the Ottoman Army in Thesally threw itself into field battle after field battle against the Greeks, where superior Ottoman artillery and rifles inflicted hideous losses on the Greeks before being forced from the field. However, this came at a great cost, because the Greek Army, largely comprised of untrained conscripts, were remarkably undisciplined and often took their rage out at Muslims, outraging public opinion in the Ottoman Empire. Eventually, Greek forces ultimately settled onto a siege of Larissa, but the Ottomans had a plan to strike back. Prime Minister Churchill had just died from syphilis almost on the same day as Alexander II. The Marquess of Salisbury tried his best to win re-election but voter fatigue after 15 years of Tory rule was just too strong - and he was narrowly edged out by the other great politician of the era, the Liberal Joseph Chamberlain. The Ottomans...liked this one a lot less, largely because he refused to support an Ottoman invasion of Bulgaria. However, Chamberlain, realizing that Britain had a reputation to keep, promised to support the Ottomans through arm shipments and naval support if they refrained from attacking Bulgaria. Bypassing Bulgaria entirely, Ottoman troops landed in Thessally to reinforce the pre-existing army.

The combined army smashed into the Greek Army - and with British naval support, they quickly enveloped and completely destroyed the Army. Ignoring British warnings to not further escalate the war, the leader of the combined II Corps, Djemal Pasha (rapidly promoted after a Greek artillery shell smashed into HQ), decided on a lightning blitz into Greece itself, advancing onto Athens by simply pillaging villages for the food supplies required to keep marching. They were reinforced by vengeful Muslims, who had been the subject of Greek massacres, and now sought to seek revenge. Bloody stories of massacres of Greeks stunned much of Europe. The British had no choice but to deny their veracity (as Britain was already committed), but this pushed the Russians to make more aggressive moves. Claiming that the Russian Army would directly protect the Armenians, Nicholas II declared war on the Ottoman Empire and ordered the Russian Army to march into Anatolia proper, with the aim of liberating both West Armenia and Trebizond. Prime Minister Chamberlain sought to avoid direct war with the Russians, though he announced that the Ottomans and United Kingdom would immediately sign a defense pact immediately following the war. In preparation, Chamberlain immediately was able to sign an extremely hastily drafted defense treaty with the North Germans, primarily drafted to protect Hohenzollern Romania from any possible Russian incursion.

The Russian invasions made things that much worse for the Armenians, who were now treated by Ottoman authorities as traitors who had agitated a foreign power to invade the Ottoman Empire. Most Ottoman authorities were once rather nonplussed about the uncontrolled militias massacring Armenians - now they were sympathetic, and expanded the target list to Trebizond Greeks. Militias terrorized both regions, executing entire villages of Greeks and Armenians under suspicions of "spying for the Russians." Meanwhile, vengeful Russians (and escaping Armenians/Greeks) were equally brutal to Muslims caught under their territory of control (albeit with a much smaller body count, because there were far fewer Muslims in that region). Ottoman forces from the Middle East were rapidly recalled to the Caucasus, including interestingly an "Egyptian-army-in-exile" led by Ahmed Urabi, who the British had allowed to leave prison and go to the Ottoman Empire. British troops were not directly involved, but they were supporting the Ottomans with everything they had, just handing over all kinds of guns and artillery on a massive discount (paid for using British loans). However, an actual war, not of their choosing, would soon confront the British Empire.

 

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The Boxer Rebellion/War
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Even though the Qing Dynasty was wildly unpopular among Chinese intellectuals, who escaped Qing repression by largely studying abroad in Japan, the actual reaction of the peasantry was more interesting. Although the military and industrial might of the Qing Empire had significantly advanced under the Yuanhua Emperor, Qing sovereignty became increasingly weak as the British dominance over Chinese society became increasingly obvious. With China largely closed to French, Russian, and Austrians (the Austrians had almost no investment and merely pulled out in solidarity with France) investment, the vast majority of Chinese railways were constructed and thus owned by British, American, North German, or Italian investors. When the North Germans and Italians demanded the same privileges afforded to the British, the Qing Empire folded, partially due to British pressure (the British did not seek confrontation with those powers). Some peasants loathed the "foreign-ruled dynasty" (which was also characterized as foreignly Manchu). However, others saw the Qing as the lesser of many evils. In Northern China, the government used several martial societies and secret orders to help control order, but it was precisely these foreign governments who loathed the foreign presence the most, especially the railroads.

Although as numerous as they could have been due to the lack of Russian or French investors, the railroads still outraged many peasants, who saw the railroads as disruptive and the benefits of the railroad obviously not accrue to the peasantry. They were further disruptive because the initial British domination of the railroads allowed them to be placed on the railroad gauge and directly connected to British India, bringing in all kinds of traders and experts from India. However, xenophobia almost never targeted the (mostly Hindu) Indians, but rather typically focused entirely on Christian missionaries, who seemed to be preaching a religion that openly trampled on local traditions. After news arrived of American massacres of Chinese immigrants, including one act in particular that was clearly ordered by the new American President, several secret societies saw their opportunity to "expel" the foreigners, blindly attacking British and American traders and merchants.

By this point, the Qing government had more or less a Prime Minister and an unelected parliament, styled on the British House of Lords. The Prime Minister of the Qing Empire, the Prince Gong, was fearful that his greatest rival in the parliament, the Prince Duan, was openly calling on the Boxers to expel all the foreigners (including the British, which were viewed by Beijing as the bulwark against Russia). Forced to respond, the Prince Gong cannily realized that he would be unable to stop the martial rebels, quickly nicknamed by foreign correspondents as the "Boxers" from attacking foreigners. However, they would be seriously judged if they could not stop this, because the Zhili Capital Region of Northern China was one of the few parts of China under direct Qing control (other regions were under the control of more or less autonomous Viceroys such as Li Hongzhang or Charles Gordon). To preserve the British position, the Prince Gong helped the Emperor draft an edict that declared that Qing forces under General Ronglu were to protect British, Italian, and North German merchants and that in a tit-for-tat escalation of the diplomatic struggle with America, American trading concessions were formally revoked in the Qing Empire in response to the American violation of the Treaty of Burlingame.

The incident that sparked this was an attempt by the Governor of California, Dennis Kearney, to deport hundreds of Chinese from California by simply gathering them in a rickety "boat", sailing it into the sea, and letting them die. The new President of the United States, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr., distinctly declined to mobilize the American navy to intercept the ship, claiming in a speech that "three generations of Chinamen are enough" in California, castigating the Supreme Court for their "market fundamentalism" by defending the actions of the Californian government as a desperate measure to counter the "extreme libertarianism" of the Supreme Court. In general, Holmes had a good way of words. When he was a mere Representative in the House, it was his speech as a delegate in national convention, lambasting his enemy, the National Democratic Senator Hoar of Massachusetts, as well as the "laissez-faire Supreme Court" that supercharged the convention delegates and led to his selection as Vice President. Ironically, Holmes only ran for Congress after Hoar repeatedly vetoed his attempts to be nominated to any judicial position in Massachusetts.

Qing attempts to scapegoat the Americans didn't prevent all fighting between the Qing Army and the Boxers, as relatively few Boxers understood the distinction between Americans and British. Eventually, local Qing soldiers and the Boxers worked together, with implicit British support (as the British would tell them who wasn't British), to rob and murder American merchants. Similarly, the order was given to spare Chinese Christians who had been converted by British, American, or Italian missionaries, which quickly became almost all of them, as the American converts just claimed to be British (British missionaries generally sheltered American missionaries and their congregations - solidarity that was not given by British merchants to American merchants). The Prince Gong had outmaneuvered the Prince Duan by successfully preventing most violence against foreigners, especially against British, albeit at the cost of scapegoating many American merchants.

Under an implicit understanding that British/Italian/North German merchants would gain some of the "loot" as compensation for "cooperation", one widely covered event was when hundreds of Americans and their families tried to enter the Peking Legation quarters, at which point British-hired mercenaries threw them out to be massacred by the violent Boxers. The incident outraged America, who saw the British as collaborating with "oriental barbarism." The Americans were then quickly confined to the much smaller and cramped American quarter of the Legation Quarters, which quickly came under siege by Boxer forces.

In a speech to Congress, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr. very succinctly outlined the ideology that he now represented. As a veteran of the Civil War, he had seen the worst in men, especially as the cause they supposedly fought for ended up being ephemeral anyways. Yet, he was not reflexively anti-war; just anti-idealistic. He was wounded 5 times in the war[1] and although his experience was horrific by most standards, he described war as the only way "boys became men", criticizing "rampant jingoism", but claiming that "duty overpowered all." Holmes actually thought very little of Lincoln, yet could not shake unwavering support for a war that he had participated so dutifully in. He castigated those who treated war as "idealistic and romantic", but also castigated "cowards." In the words of his speech to Congress, "There are spiritual losses that are a thousand times worse. It is worse to be a coward than to lose an arm. It is better to be killed than to have a flabby soul."[2] Finishing his speech with his argument that the breaking of treaties, massacre of American citizens, and widespread property theft necessitated that the nation fulfill its duties to its citizenry, President Holmes called on Congress to officially declare war against the Qing Empire. The vote in the House was the narrowest in history, garnering only around 55% of the representatives, but the Senate passed it by a considerably wider margin. The United States was at war again.
---
[1] Similar to his OTL comments on the war, except a longer war wounds him 5 times instead of 3.
[2] Direct OTL quote.

 

[TastySpam]

This doesn't specifically retcon THAT much in previous updates (a little, but I've made those edits already), but it definitely fleshes out some stuff that I've honestly totally neglected to make things more plausible. For example, the Roman Union is now founded in 1878 instead of 1877 (it makes much more sense that way). And pretty much an entire European great power that deserves a lot more updates than I've actually given it.

The Crispi Era and the Birth of Fascism
​

The man who would dominate Italian affairs would never actually serve as its leader, but would live as the Damocles Sword hanging above the political class. Garibaldi was always the father of Italian unification, but the manner in which he would complete it would shock many. In 1867, just after Napoleon III triumphed in the Luxembourg crisis with the support of Italy and Austria, Garibaldi launched his long-planned invasion of the Papal States. On November 3rd, 1867, Garibaldi's troops smashed Papal troops at the Battle of Mentano. The Papal States had called for French support, but Napoleon III realized that he had no ability to intervene in Rome just after the Italians had backed him in Luxembourg.

In many ways, this would change Italian and global history forever, as Pope Pius IX was forced to cancel the planned First Vatican Council. Garibaldi's troops stopped just short of the Vatican City, but the global ramifications were obvious: the Papal States had been crushed by Italian liberal revolutionaries. In 1867, Garibaldi announced the completion of the Risorgimento. He quickly became an even larger than life hero than he had previously been.

​

The Italian revolutionary Francesco Crispi in many ways laid the foundation for his own rule long before he actually took power. Crispi was a young leftist revolutionary, almost Republican-adjacent, who had worked closely with Garibaldi towards Italian unification. When he entered civilian politics, he was on the far left-end of Italian politics, as part of the "Intransigents", the most left-wing faction of the Historical Left. Crispi was viewed as a radical crank when he was first elected in 1861. He had actually opposed Garibaldi's invasion of the Papal States in 1867 based on the fear that France would intervene, but changed sides when it was obvious that France was in no diplomatic position to intervene without jeopardizing its newfound gains in Luxembourg. After Garibaldi's triumph, the Italian government loathed his success, but he made it clear who he favored in Italian politics: Crispi.

This shook Italian politics. King Victor Emmanuel II of Italy had so staunchly opposed Garibaldi's attack on the Papal States, he fired Prime Minister Urbano Rattazzi, a moderate member of the Historical Left who tried to compromise with the Historical Right, for failing to stop the invasion. The Historical Left had won the 1867 elections, but Rattazzi was replaced by Luigi Federico Menabrea, who was then later replaced by the even more conservative Giovanni Lanza. The Historical Left flared with outrage and after Garibaldi officially favored Crispi, the radical Crispi seized control of the Historical Left, placing his supporters in important positions. In the November 1870 elections, with Garibaldi's endorsement, Crispi's Historical Left sailed to a triumphant victory. He campaigned not only for Garibaldi, but against France and against the Italian alliance with France and Austria.

The Spanish succession crisis was still unresolved in November 1870, largely because the Prussians tried not to push Napoleon III until Crispi's expected victory in Italy. Just as the Prussians expected, Crispi immediately pulled Italy out of its alliance with France and Austria. The shock of Italian withdrawal shocked Napoleon III more than he expected, as he always saw France as a friend of Italy, especially because Napoleon III had personally helped bring about Italian unification. He was so shocked, that he failed to take the bait of the Ems Dispatch, simply folding and allowing the Hohenzollerns to ascend to power in Spain.

Crispi would again change history when in 1871, he flat out rejected the proposed Law of Guarantee. The anticlerical Crispi believed that the Pope should hold absolutely no sovereign prerogatives. This outraged Pius IX, who famously fled to Avignon, further inciting Garibaldi's men to invade the Vatican directly this time, burning much of it to the ground and permanently alienating Catholics from the Italian government. For all intents and purposes, this guaranteed Crispi would rule perpetually. As a result of the Pope's non-expedit banning Catholics from voting in Italian elections, the Italian elections would have extremely low turnout. The only people voting in Italian elections were essentially elite oligarchs and non-Catholics. And non-Catholics tended to be anticlerical liberal nationalists who revered Garibaldi and Crispi. This guaranteed perpetual majorities for Crispi in low turnout elections (barely 2% of Italy voted). In each of these elections, Crispi would fluctuate around 60% of the popular vote.

Garibaldi of course, could not resist the urge to enter politics himself. As a radical leftist, Garibaldi professed socialistic, left-wing ideals. Ironically, this only strengthened Crispi's power, as Italian oligarchs and capitalists, fearing the radical Garibaldi, flocked to Crispi. Ironically, Crispi, who was once on the radical left of Italian politics, was viewed as the bulwark against socialism. Garibaldi led would what become the "Historical Far Left", which consistently garnered around 15% of the vote, compared to Crispi's 60% and the Historical Right's 25%. Garibaldi never seized power himself, but he doomed the cause of the Historical Right by causing so many Italian business elites to rally behind Crispi.

Crispi's struggle with Victor Emmanuel II was brutal. In his struggle with the King, he could often count on the support of Garibaldi. As a result, Victor Emmanuel II was never able to dismiss the radical Prime Minister he loathed. Ironically, Crispi's greatest "triumph" was thanks to Victor Emmanuel II. The King, while begging, essentially traveled to Avignon in early January, 1878, asking Pope Pius IX to reverse his excommunication and give him last rites. The problem was that Pope Pius IX literally died hours before he was supposed to meet with the Italian King. The excommunication stood and Victor Emmanuel II died, spurned by the Papacy. This incident outraged moderate liberals in Italy, many of whom were monarchists, and mobilized them against the Papacy.

Crispi's dream of establishing a "National Catholic Church" came closer to fruition. Crispi had also garnered the support of both British Prime Minister William Gladstone and (former) North German Chancellor Otto von Bismarck. Crispi was both an Anglophile and a Germanophile and this delighted him. Finally, the 1878 Papal Conclave to replace Pius IX outraged many in Italy. Under extreme pressure from Emperor Napoleon IV, the papal conclave, much to the shock of the world, chose a non-Italian for the first time since Adrian IV in the 1500's. The frontrunner, Cardinal Pecci, was viewed as too "liberal" for the outraged cardinals of Italy. To prevent his nomination, more conservative cardinals rallied behind whoever the French wanted. And the French chose someone who...was actually pretty politically similar to Pecci, someone who was French, but not too French: the Archbishop of Belgium, Victor-Auguste-Isidor Deschamps. This had actually quite a little impact on the church, as the new Pope Pius X died in 1883, shortly after endorsing Cardinal Pecci, who then became Pope Leo XIII. However, it did give Crispi the final impetus to lambast the Avignon Papacy as a "puppet of Ultramontane France" and push ahead with his idea of the Roman Union.

The 1878 creation of the Roman Union marked an era of total war between the Italian government and the Catholic Church. Catholic church property was openly confiscated and given to those who sided with the Roman Union. Although many priests genuinely supported a more liberal Catholicism, the fact of the matter was that there weren't many of those priests. Most of the Roman Union churches in Italy became staffed with opportunistic, corrupt converts, who quickly made a mockery of the Roman Union, further alienating the peasantry. However, Crispi found an ally in the new King Umberto I. Umberto was outraged at the manner the Catholic Church abandoned his dying father, and completely supported Crispi's anticlerical agenda. Similarly, both men were strong Germanophile militarists who believed in Italian irredentism. Starting in 1878, Crispi no longer fought with the monarchy and instead found a total political ally who handed him a blank check. Monarchists had no choice to support Crispi or be viewed as anti-monarchical.

Crispi was a rare South Italian in the Italian political class, which was dominated by North Italy. Outraged by emigration from South Italy to America, Crispi lathered Southern Italy with infrastructure spending. This was unpopular with the Northern Italian political class, which caused Crispi to behave in more authoritarian ways to make sure that his agenda got passed. However, it was largely a success in stopping emigration. A network of railroads connected South Italy to the North, and Naples in particular became known for its massive, sprawling factories where migrants from rural Italy would choose to move to instead. American anti-Catholicism also helped support this. Crispi was also a liberal progressive, who banned the death penalty, reformed the justice system, instituted universal male suffrage (which nobody voted in because of the non-expedit), created public health laws, and instituted central banking laws. Crispi was also a protectionist and although Southern Italy prospered, Northern Italy suffered the brunt of trade wars with both France and Austria. Crispi, as an irredentist, wanted to push claims both on Austrian Dalmatia/Trent, as well as the now-French Savoy.

Ultimately however, Crispi's rule would face a tremendous backlash. Ironically, although Crispi was a Sicilian (Arbereshe) by birth, Sicily would see the greatest resistance to Crispi's liberal policies. Outraged by both Crispi's intense anticlericalism as well as his concordant with Italian landlords and industrialists, Sicilian peasants, often seeing their traditional lands expropriated to make room for Crispi's railroads, exploded in revolt. The Fasci Siciliani dei Lavoratori, often rendered in English as the Sicilian Worker's League, became one of the leading opponents of Crispi, launching strikes and fighting with industrialists and landlords. They garnered support from some Mafia members, but also opposition from others, leading to the conflict being more and more bloody.

Crispi responded with both the carrot and stick. He passed bills creating pensions and workmen's compensation as the carrot. As for the stick, he ordered the Worker's Leagues outlawed and sent in the army to arrest all of their leaders, claiming that the socialism of the Worker's Leagues was a Trojan Horse for "papal tyranny." The Worker's Leagues were largely secular, but Catholic peasants flocked to them in mass numbers, as one of their demands was to abolish state support for corrupt Roman Union priests. In more urban parts of Italy, Roman Union priests were progressive and energetic, but in traditionalist parts of Italy, they typically were just corrupt opportunists simply because all the normal priests were conservative and refused to participate. Pope Leo in Avignon explicitly refused to condemn the Worker's League, arguing that although Marxism was anti-Christian, socialism was not and in fact was actually more Christian than laissez-faire capitalism, as he expounded in his 1891 tract, Rerum Novarum, which was explicitly viewed by the Italians, both pro and anti-government, as an endorsement of the Sicilian "Fascists." Crispi's bid to violent crush the Fasci backfired, as rural Sicilian peasants flocked to rally to the Fascist banner, supporting the Sicilian workers in the industrial cities and making the movement a true, full-fledged "national" revolution.

The Sicilian Revolution would quickly distract Italy from the other great European crisis of the age, the Russo-Turkish confrontation of 1894 onwards, as well as the "Great Celestial War." In fact, the whole world would largely focus on that crisis. However, the political and historical impact of the Fascists would be long-lasting. The Sicilian Revolution, although not explicitly Marxist, would be widely considered the first left-wing Socialist revolution in Europe, causing generations of leftists, Marxists, and socialists, especially in Italy and nations with large Italian immigrant populations, to proudly identify as "fascists", in honor of the Fasci Siciliani.

 

[TastySpam]

Chamberlain Brokers "Peace In Our Times"
​

The Boxer Crisis was the second foreign policy crisis to smash into the new Chamberlain Administration, which was awarded one of the rockiest starts of any British Prime Minister since William Pitt the Younger. Chamberlain, an energetic diplomat (albeit an ardent imperialist) believed in expanding British influence at the cost of "weaker" nations and "implacable rivals" (Chamberlain was a Russophobe and Germanophile), but he did not view the United States as a weak nation to be trifled with. However, he was also aware how deep the commercial connections to China ran. At the end of the day, the Anglo-Qing Alliance was not just a geopolitical - it was economic. Pretty much every upscale British investor and MP had some money in the China trade. Abandoning British commercial links in China would have been seen as a direct attack on the British mercantile class, which Chamberlain, eager to court their support, was loathe to do. However, trade with America was also incredibly important, especially to the Canadians, who Chamberlain was eager to keep in his orbit. Chamberlain was a quixotic believer in the notion of "Imperial Federation" - the idea that Britain and all of the "White Dominions" could be united in one nation. To this end, he often cited his new motto, "One Flag, One Queen, One Tongue." As a result, he actually ferociously campaigned against the Conservative proposal to federate the seven Australasian colonies, a policy plan he immediately killed upon taking office. This more or less killed the notion, as the concept of a "Federation of Australia" wasn't actually that popular among locals.

In addition, Prime Minister Chamberlain sought to expand British influence in South Africa. The Cape Colony, the Transvaal, and Natal were British territories under "responsible self-government", but the Orange Free State was independent. The growing wealth of the Boers as a result of the mining boom was viewed as a threat to the British presence in South Africa. War seemed widely expected in 1895, especially as the Afrikaners continued to refuse enfranchising the British migrants ("uitlanders") who moved to work in the mines of the Boer states, on fears that allowing them to vote would allow the Anglophones to outvote the local Boers, diluting their cultural autonomy. After the botched Jameson raid, Paul Kruger apparently came within an inch of declaring war against the United Kingdom. However, last minute negotiations prevented war. Apparently decisive to the decision of the Boers to not declare war was the British successfully citing Canada to prove that Boer cultural autonomy could be protected. Canada, which remained essentially bilingual after the Canadian government intervened to protect French-speakers in the Manitoba War, was seen as a strong model for South Africa. Negotiations for the creation of a "Crown Colony of South Africa" continued for years, although there was general agreement on the terms. The new colony would be structured as a union of three smaller colonies - the Cape Colony, Natal, and Transvaal - and major decisions could only be made if all three states assented. To assuage the fears of the Boers, it was ruled that uitlanders would usually vote in the riding they originally came from (in the Cape Colony or Natal). An open invitation was offered to the Orange Free State, although they currently did not reply.

Finally, Chamberlain turned to the Boxer Crisis. He felt that Britain could in turn serve as the disinterested mediator between each party. It was true that the Americans were ill-disposed towards Britain as a result of British merchants conspiring with the Boxers to scapegoat the Americans (in a bid to save themselves from the Boxers), but Chamberlain was prevented to compensate most American merchants directly out of the Exchequer. He found both the Qing Prime Minister and the American President utterly incorrigible. The Prince Qing was not by nature a hardliner, but he was certainly fighting off political rivals who were, and was thus loathe to show weakness. President Holmes was similarly quite reasonable and erudite, but unwaveringly legalistic, and consistently argued that he had no constitutional role in restricting the state government of California. This surprised British diplomats, who largely thought "states rights" were an empty excuse due to their tendency of dealing with Confederate diplomats, who spent hours waxing on about states rights before then actually not caring much at all about them.

Holmes instead, bargaining harder against the United Kingdom than the Qing, realizing that the United Kingdom was far more peace-seeking than the Qing (who generally vastly overestimated their own capabilities). Holmes successfully demanded that Chamberlain order the British Empire to end their implicit support of the Brazilian Federalists (through Canada), as well as recognize Peru-Bolivia's, as well as Argentina's claim on Paraguay. Very little change was demanded from the Qing - in fact, the ideal of Holmes was that losing American privileges in Qing China was perfectly fine, especially if it opened up the Americans to expel unwanted ethnic minorities. The Americans pledged to not invade Qing China as a result of signing this agreement with Britain. In addition, the British, often with implicit Qing acceptance (although begrudging), cleared a path for the remaining Americans to escape.

Chamberlain returned to London, proudly citing that the Treaty of Mexico City had successfully brought "peace in our times." He was not correct. Very shortly after the agreement had been signed, and fully aware that the British position in the Middle East was significantly worsening as the Russians rampaged into Western Armenia, the American Navy immediately began to bombard Honolulu. The Kingdom of Hawaii and the United States had historically enjoyed fairly positive relations, especially as the breakdown in trade with the Confederacy cut off America from most sugar plantations. A carve-out in American law allowed sugar to be transported duty-free to the United States, particularly the great sugar refineries of San Francisco. However, these privileges came to an end after the great reapproachment between the Confederacy and the United States in 1888. Ironically, the vast majority of Anglos in Hawaii were Confederates, as they were the foreigners who had the greatest expertise in running sugar plantations. This included the South Carolina-born Prime Minister of Hawaii, Walter M. Gibson, who had in 1887 successfully fought back an attempt to create a constitutional monarchy that favored wealthy Anglo and Hawaiian elites. Outraged at his home country "betraying" his new country, Gibson turned towards both the United Kingdom and the Qing Empire (which was in theory, the only other nation that was part of the totally non-binding and irrelevant "Union of Asian Nations" that Gibson supported) for support. Prime Minister Chamberlain, eager to counter what he thought was the Russian threat the Pacific (through their North American colony, Aljaska), accepted and rushed support for Gibson, who was seen as a "civilized white Christian." The Qing also obliged.

However, in 1895, this would bite Gibson in behind. President Holmes declared that the Declaration of War against the Qing Empire included its "client state of Monarchist Hawaii" and that the Treaty of Mexico City only obliged the United States to not invade China proper. To further this cause, American ships intentionally bombarded the Royal Palace, killing Queen Liliʻuokalani. She was immediately succeeded by Queen Kaʻiulani, who was currently married to the only male child of the Yuanhua Emperor (in order to draw British support/sympathy, the Qing heir apparent was even baptized in the Protestant Church of Hawaii, though this didn't actually mean that much as the nature of the Qing Empire's approach to religion was fairly pluralistic, as he was also put through Buddhist, Tengri, and Muslim rituals, as well as ancestor worship rites). However, this just was another example of the British cultural dominance in China, as even Christianity in China quickly grew to mean British-style Anglicanism. Hilariously, this meant that the territorial jurisdiction of the Church of Hawaii would include all of China, a much larger territory than Hawaii.

American Marines quickly landed in Hawaii. In a dramatic fight, outnumbered American Marines (with the aid of extensive naval support) defeated British, Qing, and Hawaiian troops largely in hand-to-hand combat, occupying the city. Although a great American victory, the extensive use of fire support against heavily dug in, numerically superior troops left Honolulu in absolute ruins, as raging fires burned most of the sugar plantations. The Americans always had the right to establish a coaling base in Pearl Harbor, though they only exercised this right after violently occupying the island, turning it into a full-fledged fortified base.

The reaction in Britain was outrage. They had been totally humiliated. And although the Americans may have followed the letter of the law, they totally violated the spirit of the law. Chamberlain did not want a war, but the Conservatives were opportunistically mocking "Chamberlain's Peace." Chamberlain was unhappy, having come into office on a platform of solving the Irish problem and improving the economic conditions of British workingmen. Now, he was embroiled in wars on almost every continent. Yet, there seemed only one option open to him. Queen Kaʻiulani, currently in Beijing, immediately signed a treaty with a relatively low-ranking British diplomat to make the Kingdom of Hawaii a joint protectorate (condominium) of the United Kingdom and Qing Empire, which would further force Chamberlain's hand. To ensure all of Parliament would be implicated if it went badly, he declared that he was now sending military forces to protect the new British protectorate in Hawaii. A motion against his act failed as a large, but not unanimous majority of both political parties voted for war. Eighty years after the Treaty of Ghent, the United States and United Kingdom were at war again.

 

[TastySpam]

Mare Nostrum
​

In outrage of the Italian war in Sicily, riots broke out also across North Italy, chiefly in Milan and Florence. In Milan, forces under the command of General Bava-Beccaris famously gunned down Italian protestors asking for grain prices to be lowered, gaining the endorsement of both King Umberto and Prime Minister Crispi. Marching down his troops to rendezvous with the army of Luigi Pelloux, the combined armies marched down south to crush the Sicilian Revolution. In outrage at the Massacre of Milan, the Fasci Siciliani had finally declared ramped up the war by declaring the creation of the Commune of Sicily. Contrary to modern opinions, this was more of a social revolution than a nationalist revolution, as Sicily had not actually significantly ideologically opposed the notion of Italian unification. Although Sicily was known for its brigands during the Risorgimento, they were not strictly opposed to Italian unification. Regardless, Crispi treated the Commune of Sicily as a traitorous secession, directly comparing it to that of the Confederate States of America even though the social situation was incomparable.[1]

Crispi felt betrayed by his native Sicily, especially because the Crispi Administration had spent decades fighting viciously with the predominantly Northern political elite in order to reform and advance the South. It was the Crispi Administration that literally threw political enemies in jail in order to force them to allow Crispi's program of universal education (mostly benefiting the illiterate South) to pass. Crispi decided to take no quarter of the rebels, treating them as "a socialist parasite, infiltrating Sicily." With intensive naval and artillery support, the rebels stood no chance of defeating the Italian Army in a field battle. Forced to retreat into the capital of Palermo, Italian troops forced their way in as an increasingly worried Sicilian Commune became more and more radical. The Sicilian revolutionaries were fighting among themselves as the Italian Army forced its way through the streets of Palermo. Under Crispi's direct orders, they were not merciful. All officers (or suspected officers) of the Sicilian Revolution were summarily executed, as around ten thousand bodies were dumped into mass graves outside of Palermo. About 50,000 lower-ranking prisoners were scheduled for "permanent deportation", though Crispi wasn't exactly sure to where.

The answer was pretty obvious once he thought about it. The Ottoman Empire had just been invaded by Russia and had rushed all of its troops to defend its heartland. The Congress of Kiev had put both Tunisia and Libya into Italy's sphere of influence. There was already a massive Sicilian presence in Tunisia. In the midst of Ottoman troubles, Pelloux's army, including the PoWs, landed in Tunisia, declaring the Bey of Tunisia an Italian protectorate. Although there was a brief struggle in Sfax to resist the Italian invasion, the Bey very quickly surrendered. Immediately thereupon after, the Italian Army marched into Libya, where they faced token Turkish resistance, backed up by serious resistance by the Senussi Order.

This sparked international furor. The outraged British had always seen Italy as a prospective ally in the Mediterranean - but they had clearly just attacked Turkey in the time of their greatest despair. In addition, this had taken place just after the outbreak of war between the United Kingdom and the United States. The United Kingdom was facing the terrible prospect of facing war with the United States, Russia, and Italy - all at once and with more or less no meaningful allies. Chamberlain, aware that he was coming very close to being hit with a motion of no confidence, rushed to confer with Crispi and Sultan Abdulhamid II. Abdulhamid II, although a fervent war hawk, was starting to realize the heartland of the Ottoman Empire was in danger. Quite simply, Libya didn't matter as much and it was never that defensible anyways. Better the Italians have it than the hated French (who the Ottomans knew were Russia's closest allies.) An agreement was quickly penned as to where the three Libyan provinces would technically remain under Ottoman sovereignty - but all control would be given to the Italians. This arrangement was similar to Egypt's status under the French.

Finally, the Italians agreed, but also came back with a counter-offer. Umberto I of Italy was an ardent imperialist who had always had aims on Albania...and Crispi was of Albanian descent. Albania itself was subject to some of the most brutal Greek massacres and it was often Albanians committing the worst atrocities in Greece itself. With the Russian presence in Bulgaria however, it was viewed as only a matter of time before the Russians could ferry enough troops to Bulgaria to launch an offensive into Albania. Crispi proposed that the "four Albanian Vilayets" namely Kosovo, Scutari, Manastir, and Janina, all be put under Italian protection/control in the same manner that the Libyan vilayets were. Crispi also demanded the Salonika Vilayet be included, but he never included to take it, using it merely as a bargaining chip. He cleverly made these demands public, which immediately prompted the formation of the League of Peja under Haxhi Zeka, a direct successor to the League of Prizren, which called for the adoption of the Crispi Plan (they viewed the unification of the Albanian Vilayets as a prerequisite for independence.)

Abdulhamid II was outraged by this ploy, but facing British pressure, a Russian invasion of the heartland, and overwhelming domestic pressure, concluded that he had no choice but to accept the terms. The British reminded him that those territories would have been indefensible from even Greece had the Italians sided with Greece and used their navies to interdict between the rest of the Empire and Albania. In exchange for this huge gain in territory, Italy was to take over the war against Greece and provide full logistical support for the defense of the Turkish heartland. Amusingly, Garibaldi's sons were all fighting for Greece as foreign volunteers while Crispi had openly sided with the Turks. This sparked outrage on the Italian Left, who called him a traitor to Garibaldi's cause. However, he had actually hoped for an excuse to crush the Left, which actually drove him to intervene. He declared the newly founded Italian Socialist Party a foreign insurrection, banned it, and had its top leaders either executed or deported to Tunisia/Libya.

In response, left-wing sympathizers of the Sicilian Revolution rushed to volunteer for the (non-leftist) Greek monarchy, as the war turned heavily against Greece. This was a grievous mistake, as the Greek monarchy surrendered after the Italians, with vastly superior naval and artillery assets, threatened to level Athens if the Greeks didn't surrender. In exchange, they promised that no territorial changes would be made. However, Greece would ultimately have to pay heavy reparations to the Ottoman Empire (this was earlier promised), which immediately drove the already nearly-bankrupt state into total bankruptcy. Although it was expected that an international consortium of Great Powers would settle the issue, the ability of the Great Powers to cooperate over Ottoman and Greek affairs had already been totally destroyed. Instead, the Italians offered to refinance the debt, but only if the Italians were given fiscal control over the Greek state. The concession that drew the most Greek outrage was their promise to turn over all the Italian volunteers for Greece, as Crispi had several of them executed for "treason" and the rest (such as Garibaldi's children) exiled to North Africa.
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[1] Amusingly, this metaphor is sometimes used in Southern Italy itself, where Confederate flags are sometimes seen at soccer matches.

 

[TastySpam]

World War I
​

The outbreak of the First World War was in many ways linked to both intrigue in Hawaii and the Ottoman Empire, but what finally tied these two wars together and expanded the war to several continents was something no Great Power expected. In many ways, few at the time actually referred to this conflict by that name and indeed, the name was first given to this conflict in the aftermath of the Great War (which some referred to as World War II), which rapidly outstripped this war in death toll and violence. The term "World War I" was only widely adopted in the world after the Third World War. Regardless, the war was remarkable in its global scale, perhaps the most global in history, with a total catastrophe avoided only because against all expectations, the increasingly militarized nations of North Germany, France, Austria-Hungary, and Spain all managed to sit the war out.

The common link between the Russo-Turkish War and the Hawaii War would be found in the obscure teachings of "Eastern Learning" or Donghak, an academic reform movement within the Korean civil service that called Koreans to rediscover the teachings of Confucius, that eventually morphed into a quasi-religious movement that adopted many Christian rituals, up to and including baptism. Donghak thinkers called for a decrease in peasant taxation. In response to an abusive tax collector, thousands of peasant farmers revolted and quite simply just ejected the tax collector, defeating Joseon government forces that arrived to suppress the rebellion. The Korean government, still under the Heungseon Daewongun who had triumphed in the first Qing-Japanese War in 1874-1875, was both reforming the country at a pace too slow for many reformers and relatively intolerant of political dissidents and religious minorities (especially Christians). Calling in Qing soldiers outraged the Russians, an outrage taken advantage of by Kim Ok-gyun. This helped precipitate the Gabo Coup, whereupon Korean reformists, funded by the Japanese and Russians, overthrew the Daewongun. Qing troops immediately moved in to both fight the Donghak rebels (which had sided with the new government) and overthrow the coup government, which they did. The coup plotters fled to Russia, where they drafted a letter asking for the Russians to secure "the legitimate government of Joseon."

As soon as the Russians moved into Joseon, King Gojong signed a decree going to war with the Russian Empire. The Qing Empire immediately declared war, which triggered the Anglo-Qing Alliance, as the Russian invasion of Korea was directly considered in the treaty as a Russian attack on the United Kingdom. In many ways, the Russian decision by the new Emperor, Nicholas II, was made because they were already so confrontational with the British in the Ottoman Empire, they viewed it as now-or-never to expand Russian influence in Korea.

The connection of these two wars created an interesting array of nations, namely the United Kingdom, Italy (generally viewed as unhelpful), the Ottoman Empire, and the Qing Empire against the Russian Empire, United States, and Greece (soon-knocked out by Italy). Although an attempt was made by the Russians to drag France into war, this generally failed, because Napoleon IV was invested in Isabel's victory in Brazil and as a result of the US-UK conflict, the UK/Italy-backed Federalists had begun completely ignoring Isabel's forces to concentrate on the American/Argentinian/Andean-backed Pedro Augusto. By 1895, most of the parties in the Brazilian Civil War were totally exhausted and had gone back to the peace table as the war was never a total war, but rather just skirmishing between armies usually numbering in the hundreds or thousands, not tens of thousands, reminiscent of Uruguay's long civil war between 1839-1851. However, with the outbreak of the First World War, the warfare in Brazil immediately heated up, as Pedro Augusto and Marshal Peixoto, with American and British support respectively, began conscripting larger and larger armies to crush the other.

The Russians similarly tried to conscript the Japanese into the war, but the Imperial Japanese Navy was new and still hadn't received several battleships ordered from the French Navy. Although Japan clearly favored the Russians by allowing them free porting and logistic support, Japan did not enter the war. Both sides tried to conscript the Confederate States to their cause, but President Cleburne wanted absolutely nothing to do with this war, although he was able to string both parties along to get some modest trade concessions. Austria-Hungary wasn't getting involved in any war that France wasn't involved in.

However, despite the war being relatively limited in the actual number of active parties, it would be waged on almost every continent, from East Asia to South America to North America to the Mediterranean. In many ways however, the war would be a test-run of the Second World War, as it quickly revealed how ill-prepared all of the countries involved were, as pretty much every grand plan drafted by either side of the conflict miserably failed. The only real plan that succeeded was Crispi's invasion of Libya/Albania - and that's largely because he launched it on an ally!

 

[TastySpam]

The Anatolian Front
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The primary front in World War I was the Anatolian Front, on the border of Russia and the Ottoman Empire. This was notably the only front that the Italians participated in as although they had promised to aid what would quickly become known as the Celestial Powers (the Anglo-Qing Alliance was often nicknamed the Celestial Alliance because it amusingly referred to Queen Victoria as the Celestial Empress of India). In contrast, the Russo-American alliance became known as the the Axis Powers, after a British parliamentarian spoke of an "Aljaskan Axis." Queen Victoria also became one of the leading spokesman for the war, breaking the tradition of monarchical abstention from politics to openly endorse the war cause against Russia (she didn't say much about the United States, but the two stances tended to correlate). In many ways, Queen Victoria was herself quite instrumental to pushing the British to make war. When Chamberlain briefly floated that he could come to an agreement with Russia, the Queen immediately threatened to abdicate, which stiffened his resolve.

The Anatolian Front was also by far the most important front for the Russian public, as the war was wildly popular due to being framed primarily as an effort to preserve Middle Eastern Christians, especially Armenians, from brutal massacres. In addition, Russian rail links to Central Asia and Siberia were...unfinished. The Trans-Siberian railroad was still under construction and not fully linked, as the construction started in Vladivostok and Moscow and was yet to meet in the middle. Similarly, the Trans-Caspian railway had reached Samarkand, but it hadn't been extended to the Oxus River yet, so even though it was quite easy to ship troops to Central Asia, they would still have to march a bit - a distance more or less comparable to having to march through all of Poland on their way to Germany. In contrast, rail links to Armenia were perfectly well established. In addition, the Russian military had always pinpointed another way with the Ottoman Empire as their most likely new war.

Finally, the Russians had another trick up their sleeve - implicit support from Persia. As a result of Russo-Persian agreements before the war, the Persians took the opportunity to officially end British concessions in Persia, allowing Russian cossacks (and natively trained cossacks) to be stationed in the nation. Although the Persians had no intention of entering the war, they barred British ships from their ports, making the British fear that the Persians COULD enter the war. As a result, British garrisons had to be placed around the Persian border, both in Ottoman Mesopotamia, British India, and Afghanistan, which lowered the number of troops that the British could muster to face the Russians. In addition, the Italians were never quite as helpful as advertised - they were only in the war because they promised to do so in order to justify their land grab, but they always found excuses not to deploy large amounts of troops. They offered great deals of equipment and logistical support, but they weren't exactly rushing to the front.

The Russians also benefited from another advantage: a huge swarm of volunteers from abroad, who signed up with the Russian Army in order to fight on behalf of the Armenians, whose cause had become an international celebre. Many of them were veterans, which helped bolster the not-so-amazing Russian officer corps. The reason the war was so controversial in Britain wasn't that the public opposed war with Russia - but that they opposed war with Russia for this reason (protecting Ottoman (mis)rule in Armenia). Many of them signed up directly with the Armenian Fedayee or with the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF). ARF being explicitly a democratic socialist organization also helped attract several left-wing volunteers. The Pope in Avignon endorsed the Armenian struggle, though the Pope in Rome did not. This also encouraged the Americans to withdraw their military advisor to the Ottomans, General Chaffee, leaving the Ottomans without a foreign supporter.

Finally, the Russians had reversed their material inferiority against the Ottoman Empire that had so damaged them in the previous Great Eastern War. Russian troops in the Great Eastern War were primarily armed with single-shot Berdan rifles, but those rifles were shifted to border guards in Siberia, while the new troops on the Ottoman Border were now armed with 1891 Mosin-Nagant rifles, the most advanced weapon in the Russian arsenal. With numerical superiority, equipment parity, and what was in practice actually a huge home-ground advantage (Armenians, in total revolt, more or less devastated Anglo-Ottoman logistics with constant guerrilla attacks) saw perhaps the most glorious Russian feat of arms since the Napoleonic Wars. In merely two weeks, the Russian Army had battered Ottoman forces leading to a total collapse in the front, allowing British maxim guns and other redoubts to be quickly surrounded. The Ottoman Army took horrific losses while retreating under fire from both Russian artillery and Armenian guerrillas. In two weeks, the Russians/Armenians had taken 27,000 losses, while the Ottomans had taken 56,000 losses, not including 29,000 men who had been captured by the Russians, and the British having lost several thousand men (mostly captured, alongsides their machine guns). In two weeks, the Ottoman Army had taken about 2/3rds as many losses as they had taken in the entire Russo-Turkish front in the Great Eastern War. This was a remarkable feat for the Russians, for an offensive battle planned across mountainous, heavily defensible territory. However, the defensive nature of the territory had actually played against the Ottomans, who saw themselves easily ambushed by Armenian guerrilla attacks. A great deal of the collapse in the Caucasus was precipitated on Armenian guerrillas doing their best to ambush any messengers, causing the Ottoman Front to be horribly organized and confused as the Russians attacked.

The commander of British forces in the Ottoman Empire, the Lord Kitchener, immediately came in with a desperate ploy to save the Ottomans. This involved a desperate retreat out of any predominantly Armenian and Greek territories, including Erzurum, combined with setting up a mass network of concentration camps for any Armenians/Greeks outside of those territories. Although Kitchener and the British government justified this by arguing that they were safer from "Mohammedan reprisals" in the camps, the conditions in the camps were often very poor and led to thousands dying of disease. In the Eastern Highlands of Anatolia, British forces would concentrate the bulk of their machine guns and order Ottoman troops (under British watch) to immediately begin digging fortifications. This would funnel the Russian advance towards mountainous Kurdistan, where Anglo-Ottoman forces, aided by Kurdish guerrillas, could turn the tables on the Russians by using their own strategy against them.

In reality, the balance of numbers in the Caucasus front had turned so greatly against the Celestial Powers that Axis forces could attack in both directions at once.