Disaster at Leuthen TL - Frederick the Great dies in battle

I should have figured that if the French were going to offer one of their own it would be a Fils de France rather than just some cadet line. Louis Stanislas should be a decent ruler, he was well educated and given some purpose early in his life he may rise to the occasion. Convenient that he comes to power at 18 so there's no need for a Regency. Did he still marry Marie Josephine of Savoy (OTL in 1771)? Because that could be a problem if that marriage unfolds like it did OTL. At the very least it would likely preclude the formation of a French-Polish dynasty.

I'm liking the delicate balance of power in the HRE. This new Triumvirate makes things interesting. Can't wait to hear about the Italian situation. Maybe there's an excuse there to give Louis I a different wife?
 
I should have figured that if the French were going to offer one of their own it would be a Fils de France rather than just some cadet line. Louis Stanislas should be a decent ruler, he was well educated and given some purpose early in his life he may rise to the occasion. Convenient that he comes to power at 18 so there's no need for a Regency. Did he still marry Marie Josephine of Savoy (OTL in 1771)? Because that could be a problem if that marriage unfolds like it did OTL. At the very least it would likely preclude the formation of a French-Polish dynasty.

I'm liking the delicate balance of power in the HRE. This new Triumvirate makes things interesting. Can't wait to hear about the Italian situation. Maybe there's an excuse there to give Louis I a different wife?

thanks for your interest. I'm thinking he should be a good ruler too, finally get the Poles back on their feet, a Polish-Lithuanian renaissance anyone? No he's unmarried, he will be looking for a Polish wife for obvious reasons.

The Holy Roman Triumvirate, very cool sounding. I should have the Italian update up some time today, its a small one, but it will have some important consequences down the road.
 
thanks for your interest. I'm thinking he should be a good ruler too, finally get the Poles back on their feet, a Polish-Lithuanian renaissance anyone? No he's unmarried, he will be looking for a Polish wife for obvious reasons.

The Holy Roman Triumvirate, very cool sounding. I should have the Italian update up some time today, its a small one, but it will have some important consequences down the road.

Well if he is unmarried, then one of the Hapsburgs...given their neutrality and the policy of M-T to form a lasting rapproachement with the Bourbons. That and polish nobility will oppose one of their own getting an inside track to the Royal authority.

Maria- Theresa is going to regret having married Maria Antonia to Louis Auguste when Louis Stanislas would have been a better match for her politically. Or has that marriage been butterflied away as well given you butterflied the marriage to Maria Josepha. Perhaps you have room to switch partners. Failing that... Elzbieta Lubomirska perhaps...
 
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Interesting - I always thought of OTL Louis XVIII as a pretty savvy fellow who knew that full-on reaction would remove him from his precarious throne. Here he could use it to make Poland-Lithuania strong enough to serve as a counterweight against the Germans and the Russians.

It all depends on French support, of course; at this point the Bourbons have three major thrones, so understandably everyone is eyeing them with envy.
 
The Sardinian War
(1772-1774)

Victory in the Four Year’s War had a great impact on France. The French King, Louis XV and his ministers now became attached to the idea of a grand French colonial empire. France’s gains in America and Africa were to be the beginning of a globe spanning French state. To achieve this the French began encouraging increased emigration to their colonies, especially to Louisiana. The large and under populated French territory of Louisiana saw a massive increase in the amount of settlers. The French saw the populous and successful British colonies as a threat, despite their victory, and realised that the key to maintaining their power in America was population. French peasants began arriving in New France in large numbers as the government in Paris began using various incentives (money, promises of land, force) to encourage settlement there. Those that left willingly tended to flock to Canada, settling in and around Quebec and Montreal. Louisiana however tended to be settled by a combination of forced émigrés, entrepreneurial merchants as well as dissatisfied members of the bourgeoisie who attempted to escape the absolutism of France.

The rise in French settlements in the New World upsets the local native tribes that are being forced of their lands. In 1771 and 1772 a series of native attacks occur in French Louisiana and Canada. In the northeast Iroquois tribes, with weapons smuggled in from the British colonies, attack French settlements and forts. In the far west of Louisiana the Plains tribes, also under pressure from the new French expansion, step up their hostility. In response French forces are dispatched from Europe to quell the unrest. The French pre-occupation in the colonies and with Austria distracted by the war in Poland, the new Sardinian king, Victor Amadeus III decided, in late 1772, the time was right to expand the Sardinian kingdom and he invaded neighbouring Genoa. The Sardinian Army achieved great successes against the Genoese and by the end of the year the city itself had fallen, as had Corsica. The king then made the risky decision to invade the Duchy of Parma as well, before the great powers could intervene. The Duke of Parma, a Bourbon, fled to France and asked for help. The Parmans put up a spirited resistance but they too were overcome.

Victor Amadeus III:
Vittorio_Amedeo_III_di_Savoia.jpg


In February of 1773 Venice, Tuscany, the Papal States and others, formed a coalition in order to halt Sardinian aggression. Leopold II of Tuscany, son of Maria Theresa, wrote his mother asking for aid. His brother, Joseph, wrote back saying he thought Leopold could handle it and that the crisis in Poland required his attention. The southern states hastily assemble a unified force and head north to face the Sardinians. In the mean time Venice begins marshalling its own forces which head west to join the southern armies. King Victor decides to attack the southern forces before the Venetians can arrive. He marches south and manages to rout the coalition army, which was suffering from a lack of unity and cohesion, at the Battle of Modena. The Venetians, upon hearing of the defeat, loose faith and their advance slows as the generals are concerned about encountering the Sardinian army. This concern is well founded, when the Sardinians catch the Venetians by surprise at the Battle of Verona resulting in a Venetian defeat. Most of northern Italy was now under Sardinian control.

In late 1773 however, Empress Maria Theresia intervened at the behest of the Italian coalition. Austrian armies moved into Italy, the stated goal being the end of Sardinia’s war of aggression, but the empress’ true purpose was to increase Austrian power in Italy. The French however were not about to allow Austrian domination of Italy. King Louis XVI, the new King of France, had been recalling troops from America and India following the Duke of Parma's arrival, and in January 1774 he threatened Austria with war unless they withdrew. The Austrians, after much debate, backed down and in April 1774 the Treaty of Nice was signed. In it, the Republic of Genoa ceded Corsica to Sardinia as well as some mainland territory. The Bourbon duke of Parma was reinstated. A new North Italian Confederation was created to counter future Sardinian aggression. Austria ceded its Italian territories to the Confederation in exchange for all of Venice’s Illyrian Territories and the Bishopric of Trent.

Prince Charles of Sardinia:
Carlem4.jpg


After the treaty however France moved to increase its influence in Italy. King Victor Amadeus III’s eldest son, Charles, was married to the new French king’s daughter Marie Clotidle, in an attempt, as France stated, to contain future Sardinian expansionism. This goal was lost on Austria, and the other major states, and all they saw was yet another Bourbon dynasty. There were just too many Bourbon states now. An issue made even more prevelent when word reached Vienna of the marriage between Ferdinand, son of the duke of Parma, and the French princess Louise[1], daughter of King Louis XVI. The Austrian ambassador to Paris was actually temporarily recalled in protest at these marriages, that had not been part of the Treaty of Nice and had taken part without Austrian knowledge. The feeling among many states, especially Austria, was that this family was getting a little too powerful for their own good.

[1] OTL Elisabeth, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89lisabeth_de_France



treaty of nice 74.png
 
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Maybe not the next war, but its definately coming. Those greedy Bourbons...

Yeah, you have the family head as King of France, a relative branch in Spain and Parma, and the King of France's son as King of the PLC.

I see those fighting a Habsburg-led coalition.
 
Yeah, you have the family head as King of France, a relative branch in Spain and Parma, and the King of France's son as King of the PLC.

I see those fighting a Habsburg-led coalition.

Not to mention a daughter married into Sardinia. The Habsburgs won't stand for this.

A very rough map of the Bourbon controlled or influenced states c.1774 (ignore the borders its just to show the influence they have):

Bourbon empire.png
 
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Even with the Sardinian heir married to French princess, this doesn't have to mean that Sardinia will support France.
If a coalition would offer more Italian territories in exchange for their support against France, they could decide to support such a coalition.
 
I hate to say it but I'm a little skeptical of the Italian settlement. Venetian Dalmatia and Trentino are not comparable to Milan and Mantova. Dalmatia was poor, rugged undeveloped with few inhabitants no industry and no infrastructure -like roads for example. You could argue that Joseph might want it to develop a more centralized state or for naval power or something (and at this point Austria has virtually no naval presence on the Adriatic so they'd be starting from scratch) but Maria Theresa would almost certainly veto the exchange of rich and strategic territories like Milan for something comparatively worthless.

The only way I could see such an exchange is if Austria was militarily defeated. But it sounds like they didn't even engage the Sardinians before they backed down. I get the sense that there was some kind of back room dealings between the French and Sardinia-Savoy. If only because I'd otherwise expect the French army to come marching over the Alps the min Parma was invaded. Even with a lot of troops overseas there would still be enough at home to counter a power like Sardinia. The French would never leave their continental territories completely unprotected. Their strategy throughout the 18th century had always been to secure victory in Europe and use that to leverage gains overseas so a continental army is a certainty.

Having said all that I could see a break in the Franco-Austrian alliance arising from the ongoing situation in Poland. Perhaps then France might cut a deal with Sardinia. They tacitly allow Sardinia to occupy Milan in exchange Parma gains Mantova (since it borders their micro-Duchy of Guastalla). Or maybe the Duke of Parma is upgraded to Grand Duke of Tuscany (he did have a legitimate claim to it), Francesco Leopoldo is made an independent Duke of Milan and Sardinia gains Parma. I could see how Austria might have enough troops stationed on her eastern border monitoring the Polish situation that they might not be able to send their full strength against Sardinia allowing Sardinia to score an upset victory.

You also have to address the situation in Corsica because it was bought by the French in 1764. I assume that didn't happen ITTL but you still have the problem of Paoli's Republic. Genova sold Corsica to France because they'd lost control of most of the island to Paoli's Republic which was based in the interior. They didn't have the forces necessary to defeat him and instead held out in their coastal citadels. Maybe Sardinia buys Corsica from Genova. It could be a good proving ground for the Sardinian army. A campaign in the 1760s while Europe is otherwise engaged. Then turn their battle hardened veterans against Austria. Point is it will take Sardinia some time to secure Corsica. Its not like campaigning against a conventional army since some of it will be guerilla warfare. All in all it took the French 4-6 years from build up of forces to campaigning until they finally crushed the Republic and secured the island.

And in reference to the Bourbons you've forgotten about the Bourbons of Naples-Sicily. They were descended from the second son of Charles III of Spain who was elder brother of the Duke of Parma. And I agree with Janprimus re French control of Sardinia-Savoy through marriage. Its not a guarantee. And speaking of dynastic marriages did Joseph II still marry Isabella of Parma (OTL in 1760)? And did she die in '63 like OTL or is she still alive and maybe even giving birth to his heir? Or will Joseph still end up childless married to a Bavarian he can't stand?
 
I hate to say it but I'm a little skeptical of the Italian settlement. Venetian Dalmatia and Trentino are not comparable to Milan and Mantova. Dalmatia was poor, rugged undeveloped with few inhabitants no industry and no infrastructure -like roads for example. You could argue that Joseph might want it to develop a more centralized state or for naval power or something (and at this point Austria has virtually no naval presence on the Adriatic so they'd be starting from scratch) but Maria Theresa would almost certainly veto the exchange of rich and strategic territories like Milan for something comparatively worthless.

The only way I could see such an exchange is if Austria was militarily defeated. But it sounds like they didn't even engage the Sardinians before they backed down. I get the sense that there was some kind of back room dealings between the French and Sardinia-Savoy. If only because I'd otherwise expect the French army to come marching over the Alps the min Parma was invaded. Even with a lot of troops overseas there would still be enough at home to counter a power like Sardinia. The French would never leave their continental territories completely unprotected. Their strategy throughout the 18th century had always been to secure victory in Europe and use that to leverage gains overseas so a continental army is a certainty.

Having said all that I could see a break in the Franco-Austrian alliance arising from the ongoing situation in Poland. Perhaps then France might cut a deal with Sardinia. They tacitly allow Sardinia to occupy Milan in exchange Parma gains Mantova (since it borders their micro-Duchy of Guastalla). Or maybe the Duke of Parma is upgraded to Grand Duke of Tuscany (he did have a legitimate claim to it), Francesco Leopoldo is made an independent Duke of Milan and Sardinia gains Parma. I could see how Austria might have enough troops stationed on her eastern border monitoring the Polish situation that they might not be able to send their full strength against Sardinia allowing Sardinia to score an upset victory.

You also have to address the situation in Corsica because it was bought by the French in 1764. I assume that didn't happen ITTL but you still have the problem of Paoli's Republic. Genova sold Corsica to France because they'd lost control of most of the island to Paoli's Republic which was based in the interior. They didn't have the forces necessary to defeat him and instead held out in their coastal citadels. Maybe Sardinia buys Corsica from Genova. It could be a good proving ground for the Sardinian army. A campaign in the 1760s while Europe is otherwise engaged. Then turn their battle hardened veterans against Austria. Point is it will take Sardinia some time to secure Corsica. Its not like campaigning against a conventional army since some of it will be guerilla warfare. All in all it took the French 4-6 years from build up of forces to campaigning until they finally crushed the Republic and secured the island.

And in reference to the Bourbons you've forgotten about the Bourbons of Naples-Sicily. They were descended from the second son of Charles III of Spain who was elder brother of the Duke of Parma. And I agree with Janprimus re French control of Sardinia-Savoy through marriage. Its not a guarantee. And speaking of dynastic marriages did Joseph II still marry Isabella of Parma (OTL in 1760)? And did she die in '63 like OTL or is she still alive and maybe even giving birth to his heir? Or will Joseph still end up childless married to a Bavarian he can't stand?


Joseph does favour a coast and therefore pushed the exchange, with his mother becoming more and more distant from policy making. The main fact that though is the NIC is an Austrian invention. With France so dominant in the northwest the eastern states are turning to Austria for protection, in many ways Vencie at this point is basically an Austrian protectorate so they're not really losing the territories, just letting someone else run them, if that makes sense.

France could have indeed intervened almost immediately, but a strong Sardinia would have been useful to block Austria if allied to France; plus they decided to wait and see what happened before comitting, they didn't want to risk war with Austria before they had mustered enough men in France. The new French king is much more Europe focused so you won't see this happening again.

The situation in Italy is not final, there will be at least one, probably two more wars there before the turn of the century, which will resolve the issue. The Franco-Austrian alliance at this point is effectively dead.

The Corsican uprising was butterflied away to an extent. There is still widespread turmoil on the island though, Sardinia is going to have to wage a war of occupation to subdue the rebels, and they will attempt to integrate Corsica into the state rather than simply annex it, which will help placate some of the rebels with Corisca being an equal member with Sardinia and Piedmont.

Your right I did forget about the Neopolitan Bourbons, well I guess thats another Bourbon throne. Exactly though, the Bourbon family is not an alliance the states will all go their own ways, Sardinia will not become a French puppet despite Paris' plans. Joseph's marriages went the same way as OTL, though his daughet Maria, still lives.
 
I have a question: if Parma went to Bourbon, why it joined the italian confederation?

It's got a Bourbon married to its heir but that doesn't mean it can't have its own indpendent policy. Though when Ferdinand suceeds his father he will probably be more pro-French.
 
Ok well I you've placated me for the most part. Though Corsica is still a question mark in my mind because Paoli established the Republic well before the POD of this timeline so unless the butterflies somehow enabled Genova to reconquer the interior in the intervening years Sardinia would be invading a divided island which I think actually makes their job more difficult. What became of Paoli anyways? Executed by the Sardinians or in exile like OTL?

It's got a Bourbon married to its heir but that doesn't mean it can't have its own indpendent policy. Though when Ferdinand suceeds his father he will probably be more pro-French.

Isn't Parma already pretty pro-French. Philip only got Parma from the Austrians thanks to the French and was later about to be moved to the Austrian Netherlands, again at the behest of the French. Parma really didn't have an independent foreign policy. The marriage only seems to ensure the status quo through the next generation. Speaking of succession I assume that Philip lived longer ITTL because OTL he died in 1765.
 
(OOC: After a prolonged absence and writer's block here is a new update. India isn't my strong point so forgive any minor mistakes)

India and the Franco-Mysore War
(1760-1775)

The Treaty of Rotterdam (1760), which ended the Four Years War, effectively divided India into two competing areas of influence. British control of Bengal was cemented with the cessation of Chandernagore to Britain from France. From Calcutta, the effective capital of British India, a new policy from London began to take effect. The government in Westminster, weary of the French threat, began increasing its control over the East India Company, including reinforcing its own garrison there in addition to Company troops. On the other side of the subcontinent Bombay became an increasingly important centre of British trade as well as serving as an excellent staging ground for British commercial and political ventures into the Maratha Empire.

In the southeast of India, however, it was the French that served as the primary European power. The French counted themselves lucky that they had achieved success in India, and knew it was only due to victories in Europe and America that they still had any influence in the subcontinent. As such King Louis XVI and his ministers decided to enhance their forces and position in the south. The French Governor General in India, Thomas Arthur [1], was granted new resources and backing from Paris and was instructed to extend the French powerbase, which he did in the early 1760s. In addition the French began aggressively attempting to gain influence and control in the area between their bases in the northern Circars and the southern area of Coromandel. The current Nizam of Hyderabad, Ali Khan Asaf Jah II, who nominally owned the disputed region, was courted by the French. Large amounts of French gold and weaponry went into bribing the Nizam, backed as always by the threat of force, who eventually allowed the French into the territory.

Nizam Ali Khan Asaf:
hyder-Sikander.jpg


This move however was condemned by the nearby Kingdom of Mysore, whose ruler Hyder Ali, saw a possible French alliance with the Nizam as a threat to his state’s existence. So, with tacit British backing, attacked the French base at Arcot, taking the city and massacring the French inside. The French responded with a declaration of war in early 1767 and the Franco-Mysore War had begun. The French were supported by the Nizam who was to fight Mysore while the French mustered. Hyder Ali continued his campaign and headed southeast towards Pondicherry, though he did not feel confident enough to assault the city. The Nizam invaded Mysore in summer, although he made little headway he did cause Ali to lead the majority of his troops north to confront the Nizam.

Hyder Ali:
tipoo.jpg


Early in 1768 the French force arrived and began advancing westward. A smaller force was landed in the west of Mysore and launched a successful surprise attack on the city of Calicut. In June the Nizam and Ali met at the Battle of Gutty, which saw the Nizam defeated. A series of small inconsequential skirmishes dominated the rest of the year. Ali was reluctant to advance against the French for fear of the Marathas; but when it became clear that British lobbying had convinced them to stay neutral, Ali marched east to confront the French. They met at the Battle of Gurramakonda in June of 1769. The result was a French victory and saw the Mysore army heavily damaged and they were scattered. The French were reluctant to pursue too far though as disease and attrition were already taking their toll and they withdrew to Madras. After another year of inconclusive fighting the Treaty of Goa was signed in August of 1770 ending the war. No territorial exchanges took place but Mysore was forced to recognise French influence over Hyderabad and its territories, which became an effective French vassal.

The treaty however was not a permanent peace effort, more a cease fire, and war would resume in India in a few years. In the north the British looked in alarm at the French victory and began stepping up their efforts in the Maratha Empire as well as sending advisors to Mysore. India was becoming a continent-wide tinderbox.

[1] Thomas Arthur

 
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