There was fierce debate within Saxony over whether or not to accept Stanislaw’s offer. Those against thought it might antagonize the Austrians and suck Saxony into a war they didn’t want. Those in favour saw it as a way to ensure Saxony’s independence and possibly expand their power in Germany. In the end the possibility of a Saxon-Polish union, and not to mention Frederick Christian’s own personal ambition, meant that the Saxon government decided to accept the offer. Saxony declared war on Prussia and the Ottoman Empire soon after and mobilized. The Prussians reacted quickly, and began assembling an army in Brandenburg under the command of Charles William Ferdinand, Duke of Brunswick-Wolfenbuttel. In Vienna there was much division on what course of action to take. Some argued for intervention against Prussia and the Confederates and honour the old alliance with Russia, others, including Empress Maria Theresa, believed that neutrality was the best option, a powerful Saxony and a Russian dominated Poland-Lithuania were seen as a much greater threat, especially now with Prussia weakened. In the end, the Hapsburgs opted for neutrality, at least for now.
Throughout early and mid 1769 the Confederates achieved many successes against the Loyalist and Russian forces. They managed to gain control over much of the west and south of the country. The Russians were being increasingly distracted by the Ottoman front and their support for Stanislaw was not as forthcoming as was needed. In June 1769 the Saxons invaded Prussia. A second Saxon army meanwhile was being assembled in the west, in Saxony’s new German territories. By early August the Prussian eastern army had re-occupied all of Eastern Prussia, the populace there overwhelmingly supporting the Prussian return. When news arrived of the Saxon invasion however, General Mollendorf decided drastic action was required. He sent several messages to Confederate forces in the south and then, leaving a small force to continue the siege of still holding Konigsberg, turned south recruiting some local militia as he went.
The Saxon invasion force made good ground as the Prussian hurried to counter the threat. The goal of the Saxon army was clear: Berlin. The Prussians manage to pull themselves together in time and headed out to stop the Saxon offensive before it got to the capital. On August 15th 1769 the two armies met at the Battle of Potsdam, southeast of Berlin. The Saxon force, approx. 65,000 tried to break through the Prussians, 55,000, and head for Berlin. After three failed Saxon infantry attacks up the centre, the Prussians were wavering. The Saxons were preparing for a fourth and final attack, when a Prussian cavalry attack smashed into their right flank. Led by the Hussar officer, Gebhard Leberecht von Blücher, the surprise offensive panicked the disorganised Saxons and their army soon turned to rout, cut down as they fled. The battle was a major success, Blücher was promoted to Major for his part in the battle, and it was a major turning point in the war.
Prussian soldiers at Potsdam:
In Poland however Mollendorf’s plan was bearing fruit. In early 1770 Mollendorf’s 60,000 Prussians marched quickly south from East Prussia and a Confederate attack from Krakow encircled the capital Warsaw and placed the King under siege. King Stanislaw was captured by the sudden allied offensive and the surviving Loyalist forces were either forced to surrender or flee to the east. The Russians meanwhile were finding themselves hard pressed on two fronts. A series of naval battles saw the Ottoman Fleet (which was advised by British naval experts, as London was determined to prevent Russian gains) defeat the Russian Baltic Fleet which had moved to the Mediterranean and force them to withdraw back to Russia. In early 1771 a Russian offensive south from Courland was halted by a Prussian/Confederate force and repulsed. Things turned for bad to worse for the Russians and Saxons. The new King Gustav III of Sweden, decided the moment was right to retake old Swedish lands, and invaded Russian Karelia in August. The Prussian army, victorious at Potsdam headed southwest into Saxony, now under the command of Major Blucher, Duke Charles having been injured in the previous battle. In November the Saxon western army, hurried eastward, met the Prussians west of Dresden, at Dobeln. The superior Prussians eventually broke the Saxon attack and won the battle. However, the Prussian casualties were too heavy to risk a drive on Dresden and Blücher ordered a withdrawal back to Prussia. In early 1772 King Stanislaw, still a captive, formally abdicated. The abdication took the wind out of the pro-war faction in Vienna, and the Austrians offered to mediate and end the war, the fear being now that continued war would benefit the Prussians, who were reforming for an invasion of Saxony. With Stanislaw’s abdication and the Austrian offer, the Russians, beset on three sides decided to throw in the towel, the Saxons following suit.
The following Treaty of Vienna (1773) was the result of much haggling and debate. The Prussians pushed for Saxon territory, but the Austrians were determined to maintain a balance between the two north German states, and in the end the Prussians were forced to accept financial indeminites instead of territory rather than risk war with the Hapsburgs. The Russians were forced to officialy recognsie the Crimea as Ottoman and renounce any claim to it, it being officialy absorbed into the Ottoman Empire. East Prussia was returned to Prussia as promised by the Confederates. Sweden also managed to regain some land in Karelia. The main question that dominated proceedings would be who would be the new king of Poland? The Austrians pushed for a Hapsburg candidate, the Prussians for a Hohenzollern, each blocking the other. Some Poles attempted to claim the throne themselves, but they were in turn blocked by others wanting the prize. The Austrians decided to compromise, they wanted an end to the war so they could focus on the troubles taking place in Italy[1]. In the end the only candidate agreeable was from a neutral party: in this case France. The second son of the current Dauphin of France[2] was chosen. A Bourbon king was acceptable to the Poles, he was a Catholic and wasn’t Russian, and was acceptable to the Prussians and Austrians because he wasn’t from the other. In addition he was the son of Maria Josepha of Saxony, wife of the Dauphin, who was the daughter of the old Polish king Augustus III who preceded Stanislaw. After officially renouncing any claims to the French or Saxon thrones, an Austrian insistence, the eighteen year old was crowned King Louis I[3] of Poland-Lithuania. The Prussians had regained their pride, the Poles regained their kingdom, the Saxons regained their fear, the Ottomans regained Crimea, the Swedes regained Karelia but most importanly of all the Russians regained their distrust of the Austrians, their allies who abandoned them.
Louis I of Poland-Lithuania:
[1] See next update
[2] OTL
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis,_Dauphin_of_France_%281729-1765%29
[3] OTL Louis XVIII of France
