DDR with larger population than BRD at reunification

[Hvalrossen]

What if: DDR(Deutsche Demokratische Republikk/East Germany) had a larger population than BRD(Bunds Republikken Deutschland) at the time of reunification? This has to happen within OTL borders, after ther German surrender and with all events leading up to the German surrender being as in OTL.

AHC: With a pod in 1945 have DDR's population become larger than BRD's population by the time of OTL unification. This has to happen within OTL borders, after ther German surrender and with all events leading up to the German surrender being as in OTL.

Questions:
1. Would the reunifaction of the two germanies still happen if DDR's population were larger than BRD's population?
2. How might a larger population affect DDR's internal politics?
3. How and why would DDR's population increase?

 

[Theoretical_TJ]

Simple: have the West go full Morgenthau and strip all industrial capacity from West Germany. The Soviet zone gets seen as a "safe, prosperous" nation, by comparison.

 

[Arkenfolm]

Hitler goes all-out on chemical warfare in 1945, including strikes on the UK. WAllies retaliate with Operation Vegetarian in 1945, impacting mainly what would become West Germany killing millions, while largely sparing East Germany. Borders somehow end up the same at the end of the war.

West Germany ends up with huge chunks of wasteland and no-man's land and has to spend a ton of money just cleaning the place up, while East Germany is able to more easily repair the damage. The economies of both states are about the same as a result. The end result is that East Germany has slightly more people than the West.

Simple: have the West go full Morgenthau and strip all industrial capacity from West Germany. The Soviet zone gets seen as a "safe, prosperous" nation, by comparison.

That would still be very hard, given that in 1950 West Germany had almost 3 times as many people as East Germany.

You'd have to combine that with the Soviet Union somehow going for more organised expulsions of Germans, where they're all expelled to East Germany and East Germany alone.

 

[Hvalrossen]

Simple: have the West go full Morgenthau and strip all industrial capacity from West Germany. The Soviet zone gets seen as a "safe, prosperous" nation, by comparison.

Hitler goes all-out on chemical warfare in 1945, including strikes on the UK. WAllies retaliate with Operation Vegetarian in 1945, impacting mainly what would become West Germany killing millions, while largely sparing East Germany. Borders somehow end up the same at the end of the war.

West Germany ends up with huge chunks of wasteland and no-man's land and has to spend a ton of money just cleaning the place up, while East Germany is able to more easily repair the damage. The economies of both states are about the same as a result. The end result is that East Germany has slightly more people than the West.



That would still be very hard, given that in 1950 West Germany had almost 3 times as many people as East Germany.

You'd have to combine that with the Soviet Union somehow going for more organised expulsions of Germans, where they're all expelled to East Germany and East Germany alone.

What about a scenario after the german surrender. Everything before the german surrender is as in OTL but after the german surrender is ATL. What then.

 

[LeX]

Have the Germans hold out better in the West for some reason and the Soviet capture more territory. East (more like North) Germany retains the parts that are Poland IOTL and its population is somewhat larger than that of the FRG which only controls the south and Rhineland region.

When/if reunification happens, Germany will have a much more eastern character.

 

[thatsbunkers]

Simple: have the West go full Morgenthau and strip all industrial capacity from West Germany. The Soviet zone gets seen as a "safe, prosperous" nation, by comparison.

The unification would be under the DDR. If West Germany got destroyed that much there would be mass immigration to East Germany and a huge communist movement

 

[Hvalrossen]

Have the Germans hold out better in the West for some reason and the Soviet capture more territory. East (more like North) Germany retains the parts that are Poland IOTL and its population is somewhat larger than that of the FRG which only controls the south and Rhineland region.

When/if reunification happens, Germany will have a much more eastern character.

But within OTL borders was my question.

 

[oberdada]

I doubt very much that this is possible somehow without going ASB.

Morgenthau deindustrialisation is often discussed, but let's be serious, it is the sealion of post war planing. ...

 

[Hvalrossen]

I doubt very much that this is possible somehow without going ASB.

Morgenthau deindustrialisation is often discussed, but let's be serious, it is the sealion of post war planing. ...

I don't think it is ASB. It likely is unlikely for this threads premise to play out in the real world. But let's say that ATL BRD has tfr of 1.5 similar OTL BRD, while DDR has a tfr of 6-8 similar to Nigeria, Afghanistan, Mali and Nigeria. Then the population size of DDR would quickly catch up with BRD.

Maybe DDR could be more natalist?

 

[The Red]

Simple: have the West go full Morgenthau and strip all industrial capacity from West Germany. The Soviet zone gets seen as a "safe, prosperous" nation, by comparison.

You arguably don't get a DDR in the first place with the Morgenthau Plan, if the western allies aren't interested in unifying their zones (the plan intentionally wanted to keep Germany broken up) then the Berlin blockade and the subsequent creation of two alternative visions for Germany is likely postponed at the very least. You also have to wonder how long the west is going continue to pursue the plan if the Soviets aren't playing along, hobbling your version of Germany doesn't make much sense when your opponent is building theirs up.

As @LeX says, the best way to do this is to have the DDR become larger in the first place so that it's more of a viable country rather than an artificial creation out of what was only meant to be a temporary occupation zone. The end of the Second World War in For All Time has this scenario, where the western front goes a lot worse and the Soviets subsequently occupy most of Germany, with an ad hoc arrangement essentially making all the territory they've taken their occupation zone after the American President makes it clear he isn't interested in rebuilding Germany rather than just getting American troops out of there as quickly as possible.

 

[Jürgen]

Honestly if unles we use the Morgenthau plan (which also in the end wouldn't cause it, because Morgenthau Germany's birthrate would boom afterward), we need East Germany to embrace natalistic policies which increase their birth rates, East Gemany already in OTL did have a higher birthrate, but it wasn't much high enough. Through even with natalistic policies it's hard.

So we need Stalin to get that Germany won't unite early on, and GDR need to be strong to be seen as the legitimate Germany. So let's say that he let East Germany keep Weimar's eastern border. This keep 9 million Germans in these territories. Next the Germans expelled from Czechoslovakia and Poland are send to GDR, this give it a extra 4 million people to GDR. Some refugees ended up in GDR, but 12 million ended up in FRG. So if we look at the demography this give FRG a smaller starting population. Let's round it of to 40 millions instead of 51 millions. GDR instead start with mopre refugees ending up in their state, a lower death rate than in OTL. So they have a starting population of 30 millions. This seem much more equal than OTL 51/18 million split.

Next we need to stop GDR bleeding. Ths solution here could be that USSR doesn't make East Berlin part of GDR, but instead make it a "independent" city with limits on East German immigration which limit the outflow to the the west. The East German capital is moved to Strettin or Frankfurt am Oder. This all limit the emigration to FRG. Next East Germany continue the natalistic policies of Nazi Germany and give special right to people who get children (access to bigger housing, bigger cars, shorten the queue for these product, monetary rewards for producing children etc). All this cause the East Germans to have a higher birth rate than West Germany, through West Germany also produce more children, as it also become a success criteria for them. By 1989 both countries have slightly above 50 million people.

 

[Hvalrossen]

Honestly if unles we use the Morgenthau plan (which also in the end wouldn't cause it, because Morgenthau Germany's birthrate would boom afterward), we need East Germany to embrace natalistic policies which increase their birth rates, East Gemany already in OTL did have a higher birthrate, but it wasn't much high enough. Through even with natalistic policies it's hard.

So we need Stalin to get that Germany won't unite early on, and GDR need to be strong to be seen as the legitimate Germany. So let's say that he let East Germany keep Weimar's eastern border. This keep 9 million Germans in these territories. Next the Germans expelled from Czechoslovakia and Poland are send to GDR, this give it a extra 4 million people to GDR. Some refugees ended up in GDR, but 12 million ended up in FRG. So if we look at the demography this give FRG a smaller starting population. Let's round it of to 40 millions instead of 51 millions. GDR instead start with mopre refugees ending up in their state, a lower death rate than in OTL. So they have a starting population of 30 millions. This seem much more equal than OTL 51/18 million split.

Next we need to stop GDR bleeding. Ths solution here could be that USSR doesn't make East Berlin part of GDR, but instead make it a "independent" city with limits on East German immigration which limit the outflow to the the west. The East German capital is moved to Strettin or Frankfurt am Oder. This all limit the emigration to FRG. Next East Germany continue the natalistic policies of Nazi Germany and give special right to people who get children (access to bigger housing, bigger cars, shorten the queue for these product, monetary rewards for producing children etc). All this cause the East Germans to have a higher birth rate than West Germany, through West Germany also produce more children, as it also become a success criteria for them. By 1989 both countries have slightly above 50 million people.

What is the highest tfr that could be achieved by natalistic policies? Israel a natalist state has a tfr of 3 which is not high compared to Mali or Niger. Could DDR atleest get a tfr of 6?

Can you elaborate on what you proposed for Berlin?

 

[Hvalrossen]

Honestly if unles we use the Morgenthau plan (which also in the end wouldn't cause it, because Morgenthau Germany's birthrate would boom afterward), we need East Germany to embrace natalistic policies which increase their birth rates, East Gemany already in OTL did have a higher birthrate, but it wasn't much high enough. Through even with natalistic policies it's hard.

So we need Stalin to get that Germany won't unite early on, and GDR need to be strong to be seen as the legitimate Germany. So let's say that he let East Germany keep Weimar's eastern border. This keep 9 million Germans in these territories. Next the Germans expelled from Czechoslovakia and Poland are send to GDR, this give it a extra 4 million people to GDR. Some refugees ended up in GDR, but 12 million ended up in FRG. So if we look at the demography this give FRG a smaller starting population. Let's round it of to 40 millions instead of 51 millions. GDR instead start with mopre refugees ending up in their state, a lower death rate than in OTL. So they have a starting population of 30 millions. This seem much more equal than OTL 51/18 million split.

Next we need to stop GDR bleeding. Ths solution here could be that USSR doesn't make East Berlin part of GDR, but instead make it a "independent" city with limits on East German immigration which limit the outflow to the the west. The East German capital is moved to Strettin or Frankfurt am Oder. This all limit the emigration to FRG. Next East Germany continue the natalistic policies of Nazi Germany and give special right to people who get children (access to bigger housing, bigger cars, shorten the queue for these product, monetary rewards for producing children etc). All this cause the East Germans to have a higher birth rate than West Germany, through West Germany also produce more children, as it also become a success criteria for them. By 1989 both countries have slightly above 50 million people.

Maybe the Soviet zone of Austria being incorporated into DDR might also help push DDR over the goalpost.

Aswell as Soviet repatriation of it's ethnic Germans(Volga Germans).

 

[Jürgen]

What is the highest tfr that could be achieved by natalistic policies? Israel a natalist state has a tfr of 3 which is not high compared to Mali or Niger. Could DDR atleest get a tfr of 6?

Can you elaborate on what you proposed for Berlin?

I have no idea, in general natalistic policies have only lead to small increase in birth rate, but Nazi Germany was one of the more successful.

As for Berlin simply set it up as a city state.

 

[Hvalrossen]

Hitler goes all-out on chemical warfare in 1945, including strikes on the UK. WAllies retaliate with Operation Vegetarian in 1945, impacting mainly what would become West Germany killing millions, while largely sparing East Germany. Borders somehow end up the same at the end of the war.

West Germany ends up with huge chunks of wasteland and no-man's land and has to spend a ton of money just cleaning the place up, while East Germany is able to more easily repair the damage. The economies of both states are about the same as a result. The end result is that East Germany has slightly more people than the West.



That would still be very hard, given that in 1950 West Germany had almost 3 times as many people as East Germany.

You'd have to combine that with the Soviet Union somehow going for more organised expulsions of Germans, where they're all expelled to East Germany and East Germany alone.

You are making changes in the chain of events pre this pod(pod begins at the German surrender in 8 may 1945), to make DDR more populous than BRD. I was thinking more about policies and culture in the post war Germanies as being the source demographic change. Let's say that BRD has a low fertility rate(under 2) like in OTL while DDR has a high fertility rate(over 4). What is low fertility, what is high fertility? I just made a definition for what it may be. All in all it is a relative question.

 

[Hvalrossen]

As for Berlin simply set it up as a city state.

Would it be capitalist?

 

[oberdada]

I don't think it is ASB. It likely is unlikely for this threads premise to play out in the real world. But let's say that ATL BRD has tfr of 1.5 similar OTL BRD, while DDR has a tfr of 6-8 similar to Nigeria, Afghanistan, Mali and Nigeria. Then the population size of DDR would quickly catch up with BRD.

Maybe DDR could be more natalist?

6-8 children per woman? Sounds more like the Führers wet dream than Eastern Germany.
I can't see that in an industrialised country.
And the GDR OTL was hardly able to provide adequate housing for a population that decreased from 18 to 16 million people.
You would also have to stop any migration to the West, and that didn't work OTL, despite the efforts.

Having a situation like that for reunification looks surely interesting for a 1989 story, but it just won't get plausible.

 

[Hvalrossen]

6-8 children per woman? Sounds more like the Führers wet dream than Eastern Germany.
I can't see that in an industrialised country.
And the GDR OTL was hardly able to provide adequate housing for a population that decreased from 18 to 16 million people.
You would also have to stop any migration to the West, and that didn't work OTL, despite the efforts.

Having a situation like that for reunification looks surely interesting for a 1989 story, but it just won't get plausible.

I was wondering if a DDR that was more populous than BRD would discourage BRD's will or commitment to reunification. Maybe the economic burden would be to high? Especially if ATL DDR was economically similar to OTL DDR, while ATL BRD was economically similar to OTL BRD.

 

[Jürgen]

Honestly I think 2,5-3 children per woman would be more than enough, when we mix it with bigger borders and a bigger population.

 

[Hvalrossen]

Honestly I think 2,5-3 children per woman would be more than enough, when we mix it with bigger borders and a bigger population.

If was thinking if you have a higher goal(as in larger tfr) then that will give you more energy to pursue natalist policies. Maybe it would be harder to reach the goal of 6.0 tfr than 3.0, but even if you don't reach 6.0 tfr then you may have a higher tfr than 3.