DBWI: Chinese Communist Party won the civil war

[danteheadman]

What could possibly have happened if the CCP won the civil war in the 1940s? The geopolitical repercussions would certainly be massive, not the least that the Truman-Chiang "Containment" strategy probably wouldn't have worked at all.

Two massive Marxist-Leninist totalitarian regimes dominating most of Eurasia likely would have ushered in a swift Communist victory to the Cold War, I imagine, starting with violent African proxy wars against West. What a tragic irony that would be! To even try replacing liberal, freemarket capitalist empires with repressive authoritarianism across the Old World - all in the name of "freedom."

What do you think?

 

[Kaiser Wilhelm]

It would be interesting to see how this impacts French Indochina. IOTL, there was a Communist revolt that got brutally crushed by the combined might of the French, the USA, China, and India. It would also be interesting to see if this butterflies Tibet’s unification with India or the Chinese annexation of Mongolia.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Near ASB, considering how the CCP was basically just a band of gurellia bandits huddled in north-west and basically abandoned even by the regime in Moscow. You'd need Chaing to utterly ruin his relations with the warlords or have a massive Soviet invasion (where else would armies large enough to overwhelm his come from?) to install them as a puppet for them to even have a prayer.

 

[Thon Taddeo]

It would be interesting to see how this impacts French Indochina. IOTL, there was a Communist revolt that got brutally crushed by the combined might of the French, the USA, China, and India. It would also be interesting to see if this butterflies Tibet’s unification with India or the Chinese annexation of Mongolia.

OOC: China would never allow India to annex Tibet. OTL the Indians didn't oppose the Communists invasion of Tibet, and and there would be even less reason for India to oppose a KMT invasion. Also, the UK and India always recognized Tibet as part of China.

The KMT were also just as anti-imperialist as the Communists. They would oppose the French in Indochina, and would probably try to support some anticommunist nationalists. Nor would the anti-colonialist Indians support the French.

 

[Kaiser Wilhelm]

Near ASB, considering how the CCP was basically just a band of gurellia bandits huddled in north-west and basically abandoned even by the regime in Moscow. You'd need Chaing to utterly ruin his relations with the warlords or have a massive Soviet invasion (where else would armies large enough to overwhelm his come from?) to install them as a puppet for them to even have a prayer.

You’d also have to somehow prevent Truman from being FDR’s VP, because his anti-communism meant that there was no way he would risk a Red China

 

[Kaiser Wilhelm]

OOC: China would never allow India to annex Tibet. OTL the Indians didn't oppose the Communists invasion of Tibet, and and there would be even less reason for India to oppose a KMT invasion. Also, the UK and India always recognized Tibet as part of China.

The KMT were also just as anti-imperialist as the Communists. They would oppose the French in Indochina, and would probably try to support some anticommunist nationalists. Nor would the anti-colonialist Indians support the French.

OOC: I’m suggesting a TL wherein the KMT did all of this under duress (meaning if they didn’t the CIA would “convince them” that it’s necessary). Same with India

 

[danteheadman]

OOC: China would never allow India to annex Tibet. OTL the Indians didn't oppose the Communists invasion of Tibet, and and there would be even less reason for India to oppose a KMT invasion. Also, the UK and India always recognized Tibet as part of China. The KMT were also just as anti-imperialist as the Communists. They would oppose the French in Indochina, and would probably try to support some anticommunist nationalists. Nor would the anti-colonialist Indians support the French.

OOC: I agree with you on Tibet. But I doubt the KMT would go full anti-imperialism, at least initially. Bai Chongxi was the real anti-imperialist and fought against Chiang in 1930. I imagine that they'd be fierce rivals within the Party, which could reasonably lead Chiang to embrace the West (and Chongxi to push for nonalignment) in exchange for their support in the post-Civil-War environment. Which would involve Chinese participation in Indochina. I could see Chongxi attempting to gain control over the Blue Shirts (as they were loyal to Chiang but anti-Western) and I'm not entirely sure how that would shake out as Chiang consolidates his power.

OOC: I’m suggesting a TL wherein the KMT did all of this under duress (meaning if they didn’t the CIA would “convince them” that it’s necessary). Same with India

OOC: CIA involvement in removing Chongxi and solidifying Chiang's support is 100% part of the scenario I'm seeing. I just can't imagine how India would go the same way; Nehru was quietly pro-Soviet, after all, but stayed unaligned. I don't see how they'd take a more actively pro-Soviet role in the DBWI TL sufficient to make the USA try to puppet them.

 

[Kaiser Wilhelm]

OOC: I agree with you on Tibet. But I doubt the KMT would go full anti-imperialism, at least initially. Bai Chongxi was the real anti-imperialist and fought against Chiang in 1930. I imagine that they'd be fierce rivals within the Party, which could reasonably lead Chiang to embrace the West (and Chongxi to push for nonalignment) in exchange for their support in the post-Civil-War environment. Which would involve Chinese participation in Indochina. I could see Chongxi attempting to gain control over the Blue Shirts (as they were loyal to Chiang but anti-Western) and I'm not entirely sure how that would shake out as Chiang consolidates his power.

OOC: CIA involvement in removing Chongxi and solidifying Chiang's support is 100% part of the scenario I'm seeing. I just can't imagine how India would go the same way; Nehru was quietly pro-Soviet, after all, but stayed unaligned. I don't see how they'd take a more actively pro-Soviet role in the DBWI TL sufficient to make the USA try to puppet them.

It’s a more aggressively anti-communist USA. They take up the reigns when Britain leaves

 

[danteheadman]

It’s a more aggressively anti-communist USA. They take up the reigns when Britain leaves

OOC: But when the whole world's already going anti-communist (because joint USA/ROC Containment is working in SE Asia and, I presume, East Africa) why would the USA bother fighting with not-Communist India? It's cheaper to just let countries that aren't threats to the capitalist system be left alone.
The USA would be more triumphant and less aggressively anti-communist. Because they start winning the Cold War in the early 1950s.

 

[danteheadman]

Near ASB, considering how the CCP was basically just a band of gurellia bandits huddled in north-west and basically abandoned even by the regime in Moscow. You'd need Chaing to utterly ruin his relations with the warlords or have a massive Soviet invasion (where else would armies large enough to overwhelm his come from?) to install them as a puppet for them to even have a prayer.

IIRC Chiang did fight with his warlords though, particularly Chongxi. The New Guangxi Clique only joined with Chiang in the 1930s after the Japanese Incident and they fought together against the Communists, but they weren't friendly. Maybe the CCP could have won the day if they had worked together with the Guanxi Clique against Chiang in the Civil War? They were both anti-Confucian and anti-foreigner.

The POC was a bit of a paper tiger after Chiang purged the KMT of Chongxiists in the late '50s. The Guangxi Clique deserved it, though.

 

[Kaiser Wilhelm]

OOC: But when the whole world's already going anti-communist (because joint USA/ROC Containment is working in SE Asia and, I presume, East Africa) why would the USA bother fighting with not-Communist India? It's cheaper to just let countries that aren't threats to the capitalist system be left alone.
The USA would be more triumphant and less aggressively anti-communist. Because they start winning the Cold War in the early 1950s.

But they start winning it because they’re more aggressively anti-communist

 

[danteheadman]

But they start winning it because they’re more aggressively anti-communist

OOC: no they started winning because Chiang worked with them. China never went Red and Containment succeeded.

Edit: And I've also written hints that the KMT had their own Cultural Revolution in the 50s to purge Chongxi and solidify their rule, and that the West supported it because of course they did.

From the capitalist West's perspective, local warlords were successfully fighting against Communism and then becoming stable pro-Western regimes all by themselves / with only minimal CIA prompting. Why would the USA become more aggressive here?

 

[Regimate]

OOC: Is there an original WI thread to base it off of? I would like to find one if there is.

 

[danteheadman]

OOC: Is there an original WI thread to base it off of? I would like to find one if there is.

OOC: I don't know about an "original" thread, but there have been other "WI KMT won the Chinese Civil War" threads of varying quality before (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6). The point of a DBWI thread is to worldbuild the ATL by roleplaying people in that TL writing about an ATL that looks like our TL.

 

[Regimate]

OOC: I don't know about an "original" thread, but there have been other "WI KMT won the Chinese Civil War" threads of varying quality before (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6). The point of a DBWI thread is to worldbuild the ATL by roleplaying people in that TL writing about an ATL that looks like our TL.

OOC: Ok. I was just wondering if there was a possibility of contradicting the “OTL” history in the original timeline.

 

[danteheadman]

OOC: Ok. I was just wondering if there was a possibility of contradicting the “OTL” history in the original timeline.

OOC: the !OTL of the DBWI isn't actually OTL, so you can write whatever - so long as it's internally consistent with what other people RPing say about the !OTL

 

[Regimate]

The communist victory could only happen with 2 things:
1. The Kuomintang just ignores the communists, giving them enough time to rally up the peasants and win against a much superior trained army(not impossible, the Ottomans rose to power that way), or...

2. The POD happens earlier, with the Russians taking chinese land from the defeated Japanese, giving the communists a much needed boost. Soviet intervention into the Chinese civil war on behalf of the communists could also ensure a victory, using the pretense of crushing nationalism in China just like they had done in Europe as a way to get the democracies from intervening.
IMO, option two is the only real choice.
If the communists win, the Cold War could go on for much past 1968, as the soviets would not have to stretch themselves against a nationalist China’s giant border. The freed up manpower could go into funding revolutions in neutral countries in the Middle East and even South America. It would make the Cold War much less one-sided.