KMT China economy and political system

Say the KMT wins the Chinese civil war post 1945

How large would a KMT China's economy be by the modern day and during the cold war

Would a KMT China democratize or remain authoritarian
 
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Assuming we still experience some form of Sino-Japanese war but Japan does not conquer China, perhaps only mucking about in Manchuria and the few other vassal states it was tinkering with, the warlord era might last a bit longer and China might be smaller, and if this China needs to re-take Manchuria and defeat Japan then China might be as badly damaged.

From some roughly late-1940s to present day I think China has at least the same population and achieves a similar economy.

Industrialization may occur a few decades sooner or might be starved of capital longer. What I think would boost the economy more is the proliferation of small business. I think China can get self-sufficient and grow its internal economy faster, something that may not boost the wealth but could improve quality of life. I think we tend to look for more and bigger smokestacks, the Chinese need basic industry, a supply of shoes, farm equipment, rugged transportation, phones, the building blocks, they have labor, ambition and skill galore. If anything I would project a better launch when China enters the global market. And not merely as the place you do the dirtiest industry and use masses of cheap modern Coolies. Overall I think this China could transition at some earlier date if the great body of Chinese entrepreneurs are given an earlier start and left free of Communist doctrine squelching them, it might look rather Hong Kong like in its rapidity.

It is this shift towards urbanization and industrialization that will slow population growth. And how does the family see a daughter? Does inheritance and family lineage remain traditional and centered on the son? The sooner that is altered the quicker the trend towards one child or even no child can occur. And avoid famines or spasms of killings and one sees more than just an uptick, the stability can promote a tapering of population growth.

The KMT will be authoritarian and democracy will be long in coming but it might occur bottom up faster, and I think in the village level domain, in the towns and cities that might prove more beneficial. China has a history of top-down rule that may see little change, but I think the impulse to cooperate might make a rather effective democracy despite how some titular head rules. To me any Communist Party stays authoritarian past its prime, this China may see a nearly similar strong handed rule but I think the potential of the KMT is to shift into less authoritarianism faster.

Despite the real awful aspects to the KMT, I am optimistic for any ROC and the Chinese, it will have its own atrocities, failures and short comings, but I think it has every chance of giving China a less rocky road back to her genuine place as a great nation.
 
Probably about the same.
Wouldn't a lack of a one child policy lead to a higher birth rate along with a no great leap forward lead to a higher population?

Assuming we still experience some form of Sino-Japanese war but Japan does not conquer China, perhaps only mucking about in Manchuria and the few other vassal states it was tinkering with, the warlord era might last a bit longer and China might be smaller, and if this China needs to re-take Manchuria and defeat Japan then China might be as badly damaged.
I was talking a KMT victory with a post-world war 2 pod in the Chinese civil war.

might be starved of capital longer
Wouldn't the West and Japan provide capital and earlier given the lack of communist rule along with a need to build up China against the Soviet Union.
 
The KMT was very corrupt; but they wouldn’t have even attempted the disasters of the Great Leap Forward or the Cultural Revolution. So I’d say China would have a larger population and a somewhat stronger economy.
 

kernals12

Banned
The KMT was very corrupt; but they wouldn’t have even attempted the disasters of the Great Leap Forward or the Cultural Revolution. So I’d say China would have a larger population and a somewhat stronger economy.
Nationalist China wasn't exactly an economic miracle IOTL. Why would it be one ITTL?
 
I didn’t say it was. It just that the Cultural Revolution and the Great Leap Forward were so disastrous, with so much loss of life and economic destruction, that it would be very hard not to have a better economy and a larger population if they didn’t occur.
 
I was talking a KMT victory with a post-world war 2 pod in the Chinese civil war.


Wouldn't the West and Japan provide capital and earlier given the lack of communist rule along with a need to build up China against the Soviet Union.

You need to undo the Soviet invasion of Manchuria, thus you need to alter the World War, otherwise you need a USA with enough foresight to back the KMT and force Stalin out of Manchuria. once you begin shredding that much you have some already different TL. Plenty of discussions deal with a KMT winning the civil war but it takes American commitment and backing, given that then ROC is even better off than I could predict, at least as to getting Dollars.

If you keep WW2 Japan is a beggar and not a neighbor, she is sucking up a lot of cash to rebuild, and the Europeans are not much better off. Again you got the font of Wall Street or the largesse of Washington but why back the KMT here and not OTL? We only realized the faux pas after the CCP won. I think you want a surviving Imperial Japan to make ROC the third way and the American proxy.
 
Wouldn't a lack of a one child policy lead to a higher birth rate along with a no great leap forward lead to a higher population?

The population growth rate initially would be faster, but as the economy grew, population growth would slow down or halt. Think Korea or Japan
 
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