Crisis in the Kremlin - Our 1982 USSR

If I were ever to make 2nd timeline, which one would you be most interested in?

  • 1. German Empire 1888

    Votes: 62 29.2%
  • 2. Russian Federation 1993

    Votes: 74 34.9%
  • 3. Red China 1949

    Votes: 37 17.5%
  • 4. Yugoslavia 1920

    Votes: 27 12.7%
  • 5. India 1947

    Votes: 28 13.2%
  • 6. alt-fascist Italy 1922

    Votes: 29 13.7%
  • 7. South Africa 1994

    Votes: 18 8.5%
  • 8. Germany 1990

    Votes: 20 9.4%
  • 9. Japan 2000

    Votes: 18 8.5%
  • 10. United Kingdom 1997

    Votes: 20 9.4%

  • Total voters
    212
  • Poll closed .
They are due to our much increased trade

Problem is that US already has increased its role in Somalia at this point and was courting them for a long time. Even with increased trade from Soviet Union i don't think we'll be able to dwarf support US can give. Then there's entire rivalry with Ethiopia.

At best they are neutral towards us with close ties to US to reflect our close ties to Ethiopia.

But not to worry as Supreme Revolutionary Council (military dictatorship) was growing increasingly unpopular within the country and i don't see US encouraging positive reforms.
 
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Problem is that US already has increased its role in Somalia at this point and was courting them for a long time. Even with increased trade from Soviet Union i don't think we'll be able to dwarf support US can give. Then there's entire rivalry with Ethiopia.

At best they are neutral towards us with close ties to US to reflect our close ties to Ethiopia.

But not to worry as Supreme Revolutionary Council (military dictatorship) was growing increasingly unpopular within the country and i don't see US encouraging positive reforms.
Yes, but they followed reforms modeled after ours, and the situation is much more stable than OTL.
 
Problem is that US already has increased its role in Somalia at this point and was courting them for a long time. Even with increased trade from Soviet Union i don't think we'll be able to dwarf support US can give. Then there's entire rivalry with Ethiopia.

At best they are neutral towards us with close ties to US to reflect our close ties to Ethiopia.

But not to worry as Supreme Revolutionary Council (military dictatorship) was growing increasingly unpopular within the country and i don't see US encouraging positive reforms.
Well Ethiopia and Somalia switched sides during the Cold War, so anything goes there, but I agree we must overall nto only coutner, but eliinate American influence in facor of our own.
Yes, but they followed reforms modeled after ours, and the situation is much more stable than OTL.
Have we done some massive things different then OTL to strive for a better overall direction, or will implement more of the good choices down the line? I feel we not only need to survive as Soviet Union/ Russia, but winning thsi Cold War might be important and possible too, if played right.
 
Have we done some massive things different then OTL to strive for a better overall direction, or will implement more of the good choices down the line? I feel we not only need to survive as Soviet Union/ Russia, but winning thsi Cold War might be important and possible too, if played right.
Internal reogranization and reform of the Soviet system are done or underway, which makes situation completely different than OTL. Survival is already done, but winning the Cold War without some great crisis in the West is impossible in my opinion.
 
Internal reogranization and reform of the Soviet system are done or underway, which makes situation completely different than OTL. Survival is already done, but winning the Cold War without some great crisis in the West is impossible in my opinion.
True, but crisis can be aided and created alike ... ;D
 
Honestly i don't believe hard win like otl is possible, but i believe soft win, or Great Shift are possible where various leftist and Socialist models become world standard.

After this quest and into the modern age what we will witness is rise of Second (Communist) world carried in a large by rise of reformed Soviet Union and China while old Capitalist/Post colonial model is pushed more and more back on the world stage. On second hand just like otl with global south we will probably see more demands for reform of world order to be more inclusive and generally more Socialist.

So generally we might not see fall of the West but we could see it becoming ideologically and economically Isolated on world stage.
 
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Honestly i don't believe hard win like otl is possible, but i believe soft win, or Great Shift are possible where various leftist and Socialist models become world standard.

After this quest and into the modern age what we will witness is rise of Second (Communist) world carried in a large by rise of reformed Soviet Union and China while old Capitalist/Post colonial model is pushed more and more back on the world stage. On second hand just like otl with global south we will probably see more demands for reform of world order to be more inclusive and generally more Socialist.

So generally we might not see fall of the West but we could see it becoming ideologically and economically Isolated on world stage.
I have discussed this topic with @Altlov, and in my opinion the struggle for world domination in the 2010s between China and USA would much less ideological, rather it would be geopolitical, geoeconomic and financial race for global domination, and who will control the political and global trade system in the future. The basis for Sino-American tensions rather than different ideology, would be who has the higher profit margins from the political and world trade systems , which would be a different situation from the "old" struggle between the U.S. and the USSR, when the USSR was cut from the world market. By its only my assumptions - it would be completely up to @Altlov in which direction we will go in the future.
 
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I have discussed this topic with @Altlov, and in my opinion the struggle for world domination in the 2010s between China and USA would much less ideological, rather it would be geopolitical, geoeconomic and financial race for global domination, and who will control the political and global trade system in the future. The basis for Sino-American tensions rather than different ideology, would be who has the higher profit margins from the political and world trade systems , which would be a different situation from the "old" struggle between the U.S. and the USSR, when the USSR was cut from the world market. By its only my assumptions - it would be completely up to @Altlov in which direction we will go in the future.
I personally disagree with @panpiotr that the struggles of the 21st Century, even if just between China and America, will be solely economic and not ideological or that economic competition will take precedent over ideology. The USSR might have reformed but it has done so under a neostalinist General Secretary and has only strengthened its ideological base. China is still as of now an underdeveloped nation and will be aligning itself with the nation it believes will best serve its interests, Soviet or American. In addition the Maoist and left-wing of the CCP is also not fully suppressed yet and remains a powerful force, whether that will be true by the end of the 20th Century will be determined by the the choices of the USSR and the choices of a divergent America.

I also think that the reactions of American citizens and politicians are crucial here. In the 2000s and early 2010s you did not see many people calling China a communist power, they regarded it as a developing economy which would invaribly give way to further political liberalisation as was the trend pre-Xi. Nowdays with a China in it's prime, undoubtedly the world's second superpower, and a China rapidly expanding its global influence, you see far more people and organisations recognising its claim to be a Communist state. For example this frankly hilariously titled Fox News video. (The leader of the world's largest Marxist-Leninist party is a Marxist-Leninist no way...)

 
By Yemen I'm assuming that you are referring to South Yemen which was only Communist Arab state at the time governed by People's Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY).
That reminds me we should support South Yemen by exploring and developing the important oil fields in the nation, ensuring that the communist state can profit from their natural wealth in the future and be far more prosperous, while also helping to guarantee that the communist party in South Yeman will remain in power if the nation was to still reunite with North Yemen.

Oil may not be as valuable right now after the recent price crash, but its obvious that long term the prices for the valuable resource will return in the next few years.

Honestly i don't believe hard win like otl is possible, but i believe soft win, or Great Shift are possible where various leftist and Socialist models become world standard
Honestly the best soft win I can see for the Soviet Union and for Socialism will likely come after the 2007-2009 Great Recession happens.

We will be able to take advantage of the crisis and massively fund left-leaning political parties and promote our economic model over the "obviously" failing capitalist system in the western world, it would definitely be a major propaganda win for us in the long run.

I don't see how the US housing bubble could have been ultimately avoided by the butterfly effect of having the Soviet bloc and the Cold War surviving into the information age.
 
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As China develops under communist rule and the economic reforms of the USSR are finally seen as the pragmatic compromises they are, the people of America will most likely imo become terrified of an economically ascendent Communist bloc and push for further action against Communist ideology worldwide, having the effect of bolstering the ideology of the Eastern Bloc and isolating their economies away from the world market, though not to anywhere near the extreme of the Eastern Bloc pre-Romanov.

Of course this is all my opinion and the actual state of the Cold War in the coming decades will wholly depend on the outcome of this current TL and the decisions made in my own.
 
I have discussed this topic with @Altlov, and in my opinion the struggle for world domination in the 2010s between China and USA would much less ideological, rather it would be geopolitical, geoeconomic and financial race for global domination, and who will control the political and global trade system in the future. The basis for Sino-American tensions rather than different ideology, would be who has the higher profit margins from the political and world trade systems , which would be a different situation from the "old" struggle between the U.S. and the USSR, when the USSR was cut from the world market. By its only my assumptions - it would be completely up to @Altlov in which direction we will go in the future.
I personally disagree with @panpiotr that the struggles of the 21st Century, even if just between China and America, will be solely economic and not ideological or that economic competition will take precedent over ideology. The USSR might have reformed but it has done so under a neostalinist General Secretary and has only strengthened its ideological base. China is still as of now an underdeveloped nation and will be aligning itself with the nation it believes will best serve its interests, Soviet or American. In addition the Maoist and left-wing of the CCP is also not fully suppressed yet and remains a powerful force, whether that will be true by the end of the 20th Century will be determined by the the choices of the USSR and the choices of a divergent America.

I also think that the reactions of American citizens and politicians are crucial here. In the 2000s and early 2010s you did not see many people calling China a communist power, they regarded it as a developing economy which would invaribly give way to further political liberalisation as was the trend pre-Xi. Nowdays with a China in it's prime, undoubtedly the world's second superpower, and a China rapidly expanding its global influence, you see far more people and organisations recognising its claim to be a Communist state. For example this frankly hilariously titled Fox News video. (The leader of the world's largest Marxist-Leninist party is a Marxist-Leninist no way...)



I must say that i agree with @panpiotr on China. China's main priority as of now and into the future should be to increase its living standards and develop itself and that won't change until modern age regardless of the choices we make, well expect them being purely antagonistic choices towards them at which point China will respond accordingly.

Other main priority will probably be to restore its sovereignty over Taiwan like its trying to do today. But generally i simply don't see them engaging in new Cold War with the West, if anything i would say entire struggle was mostly started by the west feeling endangered by rise of China in the first paired with China not rising to their expectations in reforms. Similar thing generally happened with rise of Japan which was seen as economic competition.

Regarding Chinese alignment? It's true that China will often side with the power that best serves its interests but any such alignment won't mean China changing its policies in general.

Now this doesn't mean that China won't have legitimate aspirations to world leadership as the way i see it China will ultimately see the sense in engaging with the world outside of West and Soviet dominated Communist block to build up its own independent sphere to minimize dependence on other powers (once again it will avoid to be like Japan that was to integrated in the West). The form this will take will probably similar to otl but even more successful with China selling itself as neutral country willing to do business with everyone. To understand China we must understand that Chinese main goal isn't world revolution as its revilotalization of their own country and its return to its "rightful " place.

Basically to sum it up i agree with @panpiotr on China, regardless of our choice short of it being antagonistic China will generally continue its path of economic development and national revival.


On reaction of American citizens? I agree with @Altlov , with surviving USSR that manages to normalize its relationship with China most of the Communist world that was once divided will generally be on speaking terms and rise of the second world will generally be far easier for hawkish politicians to exploit. While normalization of relations with USSR is possible i generally don't see US trying to bribe it into the world order. If anything despite Romanovs reforms i would say that cold war is still ongoing and is even expanding. USSR still holds dominion over Eastern Europe, it still continued its war in Afghanistan and its even effectively expanding its sphere of influence so in my view USSR will probably remain main antagonist for USA into the future. We may see warming of relations between USA/USSR but that's conditioned on USSR actively taking backseat in world affairs like China did and making concessions to US, something i don't see USSR doing.

Now what this may change in relation to China is that US might feel the need to engage against China much earlier on in sphere of economics and tries to force it to open up around 2010s when it surpassed Japan. I don't see geopolitical engagement but i definitely see economic engagement against China to force it to open up and reform as West wants it.
 
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Chapter Nineteen: Internal reorganization (July - October 1986)
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(Border agreement opened a new chapter in Sino-Soviet relations)

The dissolution of the Old Guard and Russian factions within the CPSU brought about a change on the Soviet political scene. Following the dismissal of Volodymyr Shcherbytsky and Mikhail Yasnov from their positions, a new leadership in Ukrainian and Russian Socialist Republics was chosen by General Secretary Romanov. Starting with the Ukrainian SSR, a moderate, Vladimir Ivashko was chosen. One of his utmost priorities was a reversal of the harm done to the Ukrainian population by the campaign of forced Russification, which turned many Ukrainians against the Soviet government. Furthermore, Ivashko promised to focus on the scientific, industrial and cultural progress of the Ukrainian SSR. In Russia, Mikhail Yasnov was replaced by Vitaly Vorotnikov, very influential member of the conservative wing of the CPSU and a close friend of General Secretary Romanov. During his tenure, Vorotnikov would focus primarily on the agricultural and infrastructural development of Russia. In the meantime, the 1986 Sino-Soviet Border Agreement was signed in Beijing. The treaty solved most border disputes between China and the Soviet Union. The treaty was a diplomatic achievement, as the border between the USSR and China had long been an issue of contention. The treaty stipulated that China would receive most of the disputed territories along the Amur and Ussuri rivers.

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After the real and imagined opponents were removed from the Communist Party by General Secretary Romanov, the further works on modernization and reorganization of the Soviet state were continued. During the first years of Romanov's tenure, a new and more aggressive phase of anti-religious persecution began, nevertheless, it led to the opposite of what was expected by the Soviet leadership. Hence, the change of tactics—instead of further strengthening the internal opposition by driving religious elements in the Soviet society into their open arms, the Soviet state should turn political enemies into potential allies; therefore, an end to anti-religious policy in the USSR was ordered. The new policy of the Soviet state in regard to religion included:
  • end of anti-religious campaign;
  • gradual withdrawal of anti-religious regulations;
  • end of restrictions on building places of worship;
  • separation of the State and Church;
  • political alliance with religious leadership in exchange for their total support for the Soviet government and communism;
  • promotion of Islamic and Christian communism.

inside_soviet_friendship.jpg


Furthermore, the Soviet government decided to end the process of forced Russification in areas of politics and culture. The elements of the new policy were as follows:
  • end of forced cultural and linguistic minorities in the Russian cultural sphere;
  • promotion of national cultures across the Soviet Union;
  • promotion of non-Russian nationalities in lower administrative levels of local government, bureaucracy and nomenclature of their Soviet republics;
  • minorities in Soviet republics retain the right to participate in governance of said republics based on the percent of their population contribution;
  • revival of Esperanto;
  • cultural exchange programs across the Soviet Union.
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Nevertheless, the largest change took place in the agricultural sector, where the Soviet leadership decided to reform the collective farming system, which was established in the late 1920s and early 1930s under Josef Stalin. The 1986 Agricultural Reform included:
  • push for a complete mechanization of Soviet agriculture;
  • introduction of modern agricultural techniques;
  • expansion of private land ownership;
  • organization of land and collective farms on a contract responsibility system;
  • conversion of state farms into regional cooperatives;
  • establishment of production teams for mutual assistance;
  • established by voluntary private collectives;
  • land reform to grant usable plots of land to individual farmers;
  • establishment of a common agricultural market in the Eastern Bloc.
The Goldwater–Nichols Department of Defense Reorganization Act of October 4, 1986 made the most sweeping changes to the United States Department of Defense since the department was established in the National Security Act of 1947 by reworking the command structure of the U.S. military. It increased the powers of the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and implemented some of the suggestions from the Packard Commission, commissioned by President Reagan in 1985. Among other changes, Goldwater–Nichols streamlined the military chain of command, which now runs from the president through the secretary of defense directly to combatant commanders (CCDRs, all four-star generals or admirals), bypassing the service chiefs. The service chiefs were assigned to an advisory role to the president and the secretary of defense, and given the responsibility for training and equipping personnel for the unified combatant commands. Named after Senator Barry Goldwater (R-Arizona) and Representative William Flynt "Bill" Nichols (D-Alabama), the bill passed the House of Representatives, 383–27, and the Senate, 95–0. It was signed into law by President Reagan on October 1, 1986. Admiral William J. Crowe was the first chairman to serve under this new legislation.

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The Iran–Contra affair, often referred to as the Iran–Contra scandal, or simply Iran–Contra, was a political scandal in the United States that occurred during the second term of the Reagan administration. Between 1981 and 1986, senior administration officials secretly facilitated the sale of arms to Iran, which was the subject of an arms embargo. The administration hoped to use the proceeds of the arms sale to fund the Contras, a right-wing rebel group, in Nicaragua. Under the Boland Amendment, further funding of the Contras by government appropriations had been prohibited by Congress, but the loophole was to use non-appropriated funds. The official justification for the arms shipments was that they were part of an operation to free seven US hostages being held in Lebanon by Hezbollah, an Islamist paramilitary group with Iranian ties connected to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The idea to exchange arms for hostages was proposed by Manucher Ghorbanifar, an expatriate Iranian arms dealer.Some within the Reagan administration hoped the sales would influence Iran to get Hezbollah to release the hostages.

In late 1985, Lieutenant Colonel Oliver North of the National Security Council (NSC) diverted a portion of the proceeds from the Iranian weapon sales to fund the Contras, a group of anti-Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) rebels, in their insurgency against the socialist government of Nicaragua. North later claimed that Ghorbanifar had given him the idea for diverting profits from BGM-71 TOW and MIM-23 Hawk missile sales to Iran to the Nicaraguan Contras. While President Ronald Reagan was a vocal supporter of the Contra cause, the evidence is disputed as to whether he personally authorized the diversion of funds to the Contras. Handwritten notes taken by Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger on 7 December 1985 indicate that Reagan was aware of potential hostage transfers with Iran, by Israel, as well as the sale of Hawk and TOW missiles to "moderate elements" within that country. Weinberger wrote that Reagan said "he could answer charges of illegality but he couldn't answer charge that 'big strong President Reagan passed up a chance to free hostages.'"After the weapon sales were revealed in November 1986, Reagan appeared on national television and stated that the weapons transfers had indeed occurred, but that the US did not trade arms for hostages. The investigation was impeded when large volumes of documents relating to the affair were destroyed or withheld from investigators by Reagan administration officials. On 4 March 1987, Reagan made a further nationally televised address, saying he was taking full responsibility for the affair and stating that "what began as a strategic opening to Iran deteriorated, in its implementation, into trading arms for hostages".

The affair was investigated by Congress and by the three-person, Reagan-appointed Tower Commission. Neither investigation found evidence that President Reagan himself knew of the extent of the multiple programs. Additionally, US Deputy Attorney General Lawrence Walsh was appointed Independent Counsel in December 1986 to investigate possible criminal actions by officials involved in the scheme. In the end, several dozen administration officials were indicted, including then-Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger. Eleven convictions resulted, some of which were vacated on appeal. The rest of those indicted or convicted were all pardoned in the final days of the presidency of George H. W. Bush, who had been vice president at the time of the affair. Former Independent Counsel Walsh noted that, in issuing the pardons, Bush appeared to have been preempting being implicated himself by evidence that came to light during the Weinberger trial and noted that there was a pattern of "deception and obstruction" by Bush, Weinberger, and other senior Reagan administration officials. Walsh submitted his final report on 4 August 1993 and later wrote an account of his experiences as counsel, Firewall: The Iran-Contra Conspiracy and Cover-Up.

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(Crimea in the 1980s)

In the meantime, members of the conservative faction within the CPSU raised the question in regard to the Crimean Peninsula. On February 19, 1954, the Crimean Oblast was transferred from the Russian SFSR to the jurisdiction of the Ukrainian SSR on the basis of "the integral character of the economy, the territorial proximity and the close economic and cultural ties between the Crimea Province and the Ukrainian SSR" and to commemorate the 300th anniversary of Ukraine's union with Russia (also known in the Soviet Union as the Pereiaslav Agreement). Sevastopol became a closed city due to its importance as the port of the Soviet Black Sea Fleet and was attached to the Crimean Oblast only in 1978. Now, the conservatives argue that Khrushchev's mistake should be rectified, and the Crimean Peninsula should be returned to the Russian SFSR, which met with disapproval from the liberal and reformist factions.


Links to wiki articles:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goldwater%E2%80%93Nichols_Act
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Contra_affair
 
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1. Vote on the fate of Crimean Peninsula:
A) Leave Crimea in Ukrainian SSR
B) Transfer Crimea back to Russian SFSR
C) Let the people of Crimea decide their future in referendum.

2. General Secretary Romanov is about to meet American President Reagan in Reykjavík. Please write down which topics should be discussed by both leaders?
 
Ok, the chapter is posted, but I put not as much effort into it as I should, as I'm fighting a tooth infection right now and yeah, I wanted to finish the chapter ASAP. There will be no update tomorrow.
 
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1. Vote on the fate of Crimean Peninsula:
A) Leave Crimea in Ukrainian SSR
B) Transfer Crimea back to Russian SFSR
C) Let the people of Crimea decide their future in referendum.

2. General Secretary Romanov is about to meet American President Reagan in Reykjavík. Please write down which topics should be discussed by both leaders?
1.Crimea should be transferred back to the Russian SFSR because the region is mostly ethnic Russian.
2. Afghanistan and reductions of the number of nuclear weapons of both side
 
First of all, I wish and hope that you have a speedy and satisfactory recovery.

Secondarily, these will be my decisions:

1 C; let the people of Crimea be sovereign and decide freely.

2 - Regarding Reagan, we should focus on the continuous harassment of our allies and American provocations, we have amply demonstrated our willingness to live together in peace, it is time for the United States to do the same.
 
Ok, the chapter is posted, but I put not as much effort into it as I should, as I'm fighting a tooth infection right now and yeah, I wanted to finish the chapter ASAP. There will be no update tomorrow.
Thats fine man, get as much rest as you need, your health should always come first.
 
1. Vote on the fate of Crimean Peninsula:
A) Leave Crimea in Ukrainian SSR
B) Transfer Crimea back to Russian SFSR
C) Let the people of Crimea decide their future in referendum.

2. General Secretary Romanov is about to meet American President Reagan in Reykjavík. Please write down which topics should be discussed by both leaders?
1. C
2. Arms reductions
 
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