Crisis in the Kremlin - Our 1982 USSR

If I were ever to make 2nd timeline, which one would you be most interested in?

  • 1. German Empire 1888

    Votes: 62 29.2%
  • 2. Russian Federation 1993

    Votes: 74 34.9%
  • 3. Red China 1949

    Votes: 37 17.5%
  • 4. Yugoslavia 1920

    Votes: 27 12.7%
  • 5. India 1947

    Votes: 28 13.2%
  • 6. alt-fascist Italy 1922

    Votes: 29 13.7%
  • 7. South Africa 1994

    Votes: 18 8.5%
  • 8. Germany 1990

    Votes: 20 9.4%
  • 9. Japan 2000

    Votes: 18 8.5%
  • 10. United Kingdom 1997

    Votes: 20 9.4%

  • Total voters
    212
  • Poll closed .
Chapter Two: A New Beginning (Romanov – Kunaev alliance) (December 1982 – January 1983)
In a rather surprising turn of events, Grigory Romanov - First Secretary of the Leningrad Regional Party Committee since 1970, was elected the fourth General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. His election was received with surprise, as Romanov, while was considered a capable politician and good organizer, never held a position in the Central Government. The surprise, however, did not last long, as the real of results of the vote on the next General Secretary became better known.

Before the vote, it was believed that the two most likely candidates to the position of General Secretary were all-powerful Chairman of KGB Yuri Andropov and one of the most influential party members – Konstantin Chernenko. The vote turned out to be a reality check to both of them, as none of them was able to secure a significant number of votes, moreover later there was a rumor that Chernenko was not able to secure even a single vote to his name.

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(Grigori Romanov)

Returning to the vote, its outcome has completely changed the balance of power within the Soviet establishment. Candidates who were able to secure the highest number of votes were respectively: Grigory Romanov, Dinmukhamed Kunaev and Volodymyr Shcherbytsky. Overnight, the roles and position of many most influential candidates were turned upside down. The most powerful and influential during the Brezhnev era saw their position and influence evaporate just like that, while the other politicians were elevated to the highest positions of power and influence.

The choice of Romanov and Kunaev as the most popular candidates was a clear sign that the Party and its members were done with the Old Guard and their policies, which lead the country to a very difficult position internally and on the international stage. The Old Guard was blamed for the stagnation of Soviet economy and agriculture, widespread corruption, growing feeling of discontent within the USSR and satellite states and the hopeless situation of the Soviet Army in Afghanistan. Romanov and Kunauev as capable organizers and well reversed in economic matters, were seen as a chance for modernization and reorganization of the Soviet State, the Communist Party, and renewal of communism. On the other hand, the appointment of Romanov was received with surprise in the West, but the official response of the West was rather muted amid renewed growing tensions between both USA and USSR. The response from the Eastern Bloc and Soviet-aligned countries was positive, with some degree of uncertainty about Romanov's lack of experience. Nevertheless his choice could be considered a new chapter and beginning for communist and socialist bloc.

The first weeks and months resulted in a lot of changes within the power structures of both the Party and the State. Beginning with the new General Secretary Romanov, his first order of things was to secure and spread his own power-base within the State and the Party, as his current power-base was limited only to the Leningrad Oblast. While right now he was very popular among the party members, relying only on good-will in the short-term may be good, but in the long-term it could turn fatal for his. To secure his position, Romanov had to secure the support of three bodies: the Soviet bureaucracy/administration, military (silovniks) and secret services. Romanov was able to secure the support of the bureaucracy by keeping the current premier Nikolai Tikhonov on his post as the Premier. Tikhonov as a member of the Old Guard was aware of his current precarious position, but was able to reach an agreement that in exchange for keeping his position, he and the administration in general will support the new General Secretary.

Romanov was also able to secure the support of the army by reaching an agreement and understanding with two most powerful representatives of the Armed Forces - Chief of the General Staff Marshal Nikolai Ogarkov and Soviet Minister of Defense Marshal Dmitry Ustinov. In order to gain their support, Romanov was forced to agree not to cut in any case spending on the army and keep the state focus on the military-industrial complex. The last problem to solve was the infamous Chairman of KGB – Yuri Andropov, for the long time second-most powerful man in the USSR, now the biggest loser of the great balance-shift of power in USSR. Romanov, as an experienced politician, was once again able to reach an agreement with Andropov. With his position within the Party and State really weakened, Andropov was fighting right now for keeping his position as Chairman of KGB. As quickly as the news of results of the vote came out and the scale of Andropov's defeat was clear, feeling the proverbial blood in the water, several contenders have risen up, very eager to take Andropov's position as Chairman of KGB. Romanov came to the conclusion that it would be in his best interest to keep Andropov as Chairman of KGB for now, as the balance of power between the Chairman of KGB and the General Secretary was completely on his side, and the position of Andropov was completely dependent on his good-will. Andropov was also aware of his really weak position, so had no other choice, but to accept the proposition.

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(Dmirty Ustinov - the Soviet Minister of Defense)

The last man, with whom Romanov had to deal with was another rising superstar of the Soviet politics - Dinmukhamed Kunaev First Secretary of the Communist Party of Kazakhstan, who held the position in years 1960 – 1962 and again from year 1964. During his tenure, Dinmukhamed Kunaev made a significant contribution to social, economic and cultural development of Kazakhstan. As a result of his policy, mining industry in Kazakhstan reached the highest levels, new industrial areas in the country were established, new cities and provincial human settlements were constructed. Romanov and Kunaev were able to reach an understanding as both of them represented the same stance on the future of the USSR – both wanted to introduce a comprehensive program for the reform, renewal and further development of socialism in the USSR and abroad. As the result of the agreement – informal position of Kunayev as the new second most powerful man in the USSR was formally recognized with his appointment as Second Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, replacing Konstantin Chernenko.

As soon as his position of General Secretary and power-base was secured, Romanov immediately had to deal with multiple problems plaguing the Soviet Union:- the ongoing war in Afghanistan, economic and crisis, widespread corruption/ overblown bureaucracy.

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(Soviet troops in Afghanistan)

Starting with the ongoing war in Afghanistan, Romanov is forced to quickly find a solution to the Afghan quagmire. The Soviet forces alongside Afghan allies are locked in protracted war against the Afghan mujahideen, foreign fighters, and smaller groups of anti-Soviet Maoists. While the mujahideen were backed by various countries and organizations, the majority of their support came from Pakistan, the United States, the United Kingdom, China, Iran, and the Arab states of the Persian Gulf. The biggest problem of on the Soviet side since the invasion of Afghanistan are lack of cohesive strategy and severe tactical deficiencies.The first essential mistake the Soviets made was of strategic nature, as above all the Soviet Union fatally misinterpreted the nature of the war they were going to get engaged in. The Soviet thought the military intervention would be of the quick kind as exercised in Czechoslovakia in 1968, but the fighting against the enemy turned into full scale war. Currently, the number of soldiers deployed into Afghanistan is too low, as the Red Army controls only major urban centers and the road network linking them.

Moreover, the Soviet Union deployed forces that were inappropriate for the topographic conditions found in Afghanistan. In general terms, the conduct of war is significantly shaped by its geographical setting and military forces have to respond appropriately to natural constraints. Soviet decision-makers had utterly violated this golden rule by employing heavy-tank mechanized formations that would be appropriate in Europe’s flat, rolling terrain. In mountainous Afghanistan, however, these troops were unsuitable and of limited effect. The first mistake was made before the actual fighting started. Doctrine and forces employed by the Soviet Union ran against the physical environment and the threat found in Afghanistan, leading to inappropriate tactical arrangements.

Coming to proposed solutions, everyone agreed that the current state of things in Afghanistan cannot be tolerated anymore, also a notion of abandoning Afghanistan was quickly denounced, as any Soviet withdrawal from the country, would lead to inevitable diplomatic, political and security problems. Some party members proposed a review of Soviet strategy and tactics employed in Afghanistan, as only controlling the major urban centers in Afghanistan brings no results. In order to achieve this, a significant rise of Soviet troops to Afghanistan is required, not only a number of conscripts, but also a number of elite soviet formations designated to combat Mujahideen forces in ongoing guerilla warfare. What is more, there is also proposal to change combat tactics, and adoption of tactics suited to geographical setting of Afghanistan. The choice of troops used in conflict must be changed as well, as heavy-tank mechanized formations are completely inappropriate in Afghanistan

Other party members suggested also new political approach towards Afghanistan, as current Soviet policy proved itself to be completely ineffective, as the support of Afghan population is on the side of Mujahideen forces. The proposal is simple - in order to win back the support for the Soviet side, it is proposed to roll back the most unpopular reforms, a complete stop on fight against religion, and new approach towards the civilian population of Afghanistan, as the Soviet campaign of terror brought only more and more problems towards the Soviet side.

Most hardliner members of the Party also had their own ideas – turning Soviet intervention into an international intervention of all member states of the Warsaw Pact, stating that the war in Afghanistan is really not a war against local rebels, but rather the so-called collective West, NATO and China. Some suggested sending conscripts from the Warsaw Pact states, others suggested that the better choice would be to limit their involvement to special forces and material assistance to the Afghan government. There was also a call made by the most extreme wing of hardliners for an extensive campaign involving widespread of chemical weapons aimed at destroying the morale of the enemy. In their opinion, the Soviet Union is justified in using chemical weapons as USSR is fighting in Afghanistan against imperialist and fascist forces of the West and China, hellbent on destroying the USSR.
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(Soviet bureaucracy in practice)

The second ongoing crisis is the rampant corruption and overgrown Soviet bureaucracy which significantly affects the Soviet state, economy and population. The proposition of debureaucratisation of the Soviet state came from Premier Tikhonov. Some suggested, that he did it only to prove his usefulness to the new soviet Leadership. Nevertheless, Tikhonov proposes to decrease enormous soviet government by closing and uniting some ministeries, getting rid of completely useless and most ineffective/corrupt politicians in order to streamline the work of the Soviet state and government. What is more, other party members suggested a wide-scale anti-corruption campaign in order ot fight violations of the party, state and labor discipline. However, not everyone was happy with this proposal, as they fear that such a campaign might quickly turn into a witch-hunt.

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(The ongoing economic crisis affects lives of the Soviet Population)

The last and the biggest problem is obviously the economic crisis caused partly by East-West tensions increased during the first term of US President Ronald Reagan, reaching levels not seen since the Cuban Missile Crisis as Reagan increased US military spending to 7% of the GDP. To match the military buildup, the Soviet Union increased its own military spending to 27% of its GDP and froze production of civilian goods at 1980 levels, causing a sharp economic decline in the already failing Soviet economy.

Both Romanov and Kunaev came to the conclusion that the economic crisis cannot be solved just overnight, as it will be a long and complicated process. Some party members suggested that the first step of the reform should be an increase in workforce's efficiency, crackdown on laborer's lack of discipline, granting industries a greater autonomy from the state regulations and to enable factory managers to retain control over more of their profits. Such initiatives should result in a rise of industrial output and efficiency. However, these reforms should be treated only as a temporary solution and laying the ground towards the proper reform. Each faction within the party had their own ideas and solutions towards the economy. Starting with the 1965 Soviet economic reform, sometimes called the Kosygin reform or Liberman reform, was a set of planned changes in the economy of the USSR. A centerpiece of these changes was the introduction of profitability and sales as the two key indicators of enterprise success. Some of an enterprise's profits would go to three funds, used to reward workers and expand operations; most would go to the central budget.

The second proposal was Goulash Communism, also commonly called Kádárism or the Hungarian Thaw, an economic reform taking into account public opinion and increased focus being paced on the well-being of the citizenry. The general principles also are relaxation of state economic control, giving limited freedom to workings of the market and allowance to a limited number of businesses to operate in the services sector.Additionally, rather than enforcing the system of compulsory crop deliveries and of workdays credit, the collectivizers used monthly cash wages.

The third proposal, introduced by the liberal/reformatory faction is to follow similar path as China under Deng Xiaoping, known as the Chinese economic reform or "socialist market economy" which involves the de-collectivization of agriculture, the opening up of the country to foreign investment, and permission for entrepreneurs to start businesses. However, a large percentage of industries would remain state-owned and controlled.

The fourth and final proposition is to transform the economy of the Soviet Union in the fashion of the economy of Socialist Yugoslavia which is a unique system of socialist self-management the Yugoslav economy is characterized by a combination of market mechanisms and state planning, with a focus on worker self-management and a decentralized approach to decision-making.

Aside from different proposed solutions, Andrei Gromyko, minister of foreign affairs and newly appointed by Romanov First Deputy Chairman of the Council of Ministers of the Soviet Union, proposed an increase in foreign trade with the world, as it would bring much needed capital to the USSR.
 
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1. Vote on the Afghan war:
A) strategic and tactical reorganization of the Soviet forces
B) increase in number of deployed troops in Afghanistan
C) new political approach towards the war and local population
D) turning the Soviet intervention into the Warsaw Pact intervention (involving sending conscripts)
E) turning the Soviet intervention into the Warsaw Pact intervention (involvement limited to material support and special forces)
F) strategic airborne offensive of the Soviet Forces against Mujahideen involving widespread use of chemical weapons against rebel forces and rebellious population

2. Vote on debureaucratisation and anti-corruption campaign:
A) enact both
B) enact debureaucratisation
C) enact anti-corruption campaign
D) do nothing

3. Vote on the Soviet economic reform:
A) Focus only on increasing workforce's efficiency, labor discipline and granting greater autonomy to industries
B) Implement the 1965 Soviet economic reform, sometimes called the Kosygin reform.
C) Implement Soviet version of Goulash Communism, also commonly called Kádárism
D) Follow the footsteps and reforms introduced in China by Deng Xiaping
E) Follow and emulate model of socialist economy of Yugoslavia
F) Do nothing, the Soviet model is perfect and needs no change

4. Vote on Gromyko's proposal to expand trade agreements:
A) Yes
B) No, there is no need for that
 

TheSpectacledCloth

Gone Fishin'
1). B and F - The Soviets need a much greater presence in Afghanistan to establish order. The Mujahideen are too much of an existential threat to the Soviets, so they must be destroyed by any means necessary. The armed forces needs more men on the battlefield, they must be more ruthless with disobedient civilians and the priority should be to completely wipe out the rebellion. We can talk about potential reforms only after there is no further trace of defiance from the populace and whatever is left of the rebellion.

2). A - The Soviets must clean house and get rid of the dead weight in its administration.

3). D - If it worked for China, why wouldn't it work for the Soviet Union?

4). A - This will pay dividends for the economy.
 
1. A and C, you can´t win if local people don´t like you and you don´t have enought force to deal with the rebbels
2. A, less burocracy and corruption will be a great achievement
3.A, it´s a temporary, solution
4.A The soviet union need currency, and of corse, you can use this trade to expand communist influence in other countries.
 
1. Vote on the Afghan war:
A) strategic and tactical reorganization of the Soviet forces
B) increase in number of deployed troops in Afghanistan
C) new political approach towards the war and local population
D) turning the Soviet intervention into the Warsaw Pact intervention (involving sending conscripts)
E) turning the Soviet intervention into the Warsaw Pact intervention (involvement limited to material support and special forces)
F) strategic airborne offensive of the Soviet Forces against Mujahideen involving widespread use of chemical weapons against rebel forces and rebellious population

2. Vote on debureaucratisation and anti-corruption campaign:
A) enact both
B) enact debureaucratisation
C) enact anti-corruption campaign
D) do nothing

3. Vote on the Soviet economic reform:
A) Focus only on increasing workforce's efficiency, labor discipline and granting greater autonomy to industries
B) Implement the 1965 Soviet economic reform, sometimes called the Kosygin reform.
C) Implement Soviet version of Goulash Communism, also commonly called Kádárism
D) Follow the footsteps and reforms introduced in China by Deng Xiaping
E) Follow and emulate model of socialist economy of Yugoslavia
F) Do nothing, the Soviet model is perfect and needs no change

4. Vote on Gromyko's proposal to expand trade agreements:
A) Yes
B) No, there is no need for that
1.) B

2.) A

3.) I'd like to propose an option G: "Focus on increasing workforce's efficiency, labor discipline and recentralization". There were quite a lot of elements of decentralization in 1980s Soviet economic planning. All the above options represent various degrees of further decentralization or the continuation of the status quo. There should be an option to return to more strict and centralized economic planning (abolishing Khozraschet, curtailing enterprise autonomy regarding the number of policy targets and the ability to reinvest profits on their own, etc.). If that's possible I'll vote for that. And if possible I'll vote for A aswell, since it involves tackling some of the most serious issues the economy is facing. I was tempted to vote for F too, since it involves the least amount of decentralization when it comes to the existing options. However not combating low workforce efficiency and labour discipline is worse than some minor decentralization measures.

4.) A
 
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I'd like to propose an option G: "Focus only on increasing workforce's efficiency, labor discipline and recentralization". There were quite a lot of elements of decentralization in 1980s Soviet economic planning. All the above options represent various degrees of further decentralization or the continuation of the status quo. There should be an option to return to more strict and centralized economic planning (abolishing Khozraschet, curtailing enterprise autonomy regarding the number of policy targets and the ability to reinvest profits on their own, etc.). If that's possible I'll vote for that.
Of course, you can add your own initiatives and ideas.
 
1. Vote on the Afghan war:
The best approach to deal with the Afghan War would be a A) partial strategic and tactical reorganization of the Soviet forces, combiend with B) a increase in number of deployed troops in Afghanistan, doing so by mainly using our allies and their forces D) turning the Soviet intervention into the Warsaw Pact intervention (involving sending conscripts).

2. Vote on debureaucratisation and anti-corruption campaign:
A) We should enact both, as a overall debureaucratisation approach is as much needed, as a overall anti-corruption campaign, to deal with both problems at the same time, as they are interwined.

3. Vote on the Soviet economic reform:
In our economic reform, I belive it would benefit us best if we A) Focus only on increasing workforce's efficiency, labor discipline and granting greater autonomy to industries overall.

4. Vote on Gromyko's proposal to expand trade agreements:
A) Yes, it is never wrong to trade more, as this would give us greater income, but we should focus primerely on other Communist nations, so the Communist World in general is the main benefitiator.
 
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Tikhonov hates the Kosygin reform, it was never implemented because of his resistance.
That is completely correct, but as there was a significant shift in balance of power at the top of Soviet leadership, Tikhonovs position is not as powerful as in the past, it leaves a possibilty of reform if the readers wish to introduce it.
 

jparker77

Banned
1. I vote E. Special forces should be more motivated and committed(and thereby interested in doing their jobs properly) than conscripts, and that should free up some Soviet forces as well. If possible, we should also try limited implementation of C. No need to rush too fast— we don’t want to show weakness— but experimenting with limited reform and seeing if it works should help.

2. A.

3. C, it seems to have worked pretty well in Hungary.

4. A.
 
1) My vote is for a combination of A, C and E. Because as stated, it is important to reorient and reform how the armed forces should act in a radically different country.
2) A. I feel that we need to have both options in order for us to curb government inefficiencies.
3) A and C. Ideally, the focus should be on A before C since we need to first have our house in order before we start a restructuring of our economy.
4) A. Because we are in need of goods and services. Hopefully, this comes from some of the Warsaw Pact.
 
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