Also, how is Alf Landon viewed ITTL?
Fair, but wouldn’t a lot of Progessives also be fighting with the Reds? At the very least, the base of Progessive voting power would be very Red.
I will get into more details about it when I finally get to the map seriers detailing the Second American Civil War, but lets just say that compared to say.... Kaiser Cat Cinema's "
Divided States" seiers, in which the SACW was still on-going all the way to 1941 with seemingly no end in sight.... My verison of the Second American Civil War is a lot shorter and less devastating, lasting only about a year and 2 months, from March 1937 to May 1938, due to a combination of factors.
While many people in the KR fandom have complaint about Alf Landon being 'boring' compared to all the other bombastic and over the top personalities on all sides, ranging from Jack '
Ten Days That Shook the World' Reed the syndicalist demagogue, to Huey Long the 'Kingfish', MacArthur the 'American Caesar', and even John 'Cactus Jack' Garner with the iconic
400-pound giant gavel that he keeps in his office.... Alf Landon does indeed come acorss as a boring, inoffensive moderate centraist with ties to the bussiness world... Which is exactly WHY he was able to be so effective in rallying the nation with his status as the only sane person in the room... Or as someone on Reddit once put it, when you are surrounded by radicals and fanitcial ideologes, the moderate centraist ended up becoming the one that is 'edgy' and couragous.
To start with, while the KR setting's plot mandated 'US-screw' with the prolonged Great Depression and political radicalization meant that by 1936, a Second Civil War would be ineviable.... The Federalist did managed to pull a last minitue 'eleventh hour miracle' in stacking the deck in their favor as much as possible before thinigs finally explodes. For example, Hoover's adminstration was able to pass the Garner-Wagner Unemployment Relief Bill after forcing the establishment sentors to compromised with the SPA; As well as comprising with the Canadian government on the deferment of British WK1 war debt repayments in exchange for a free trade agreement with the Entente, makin the pre-Civil War economic situation much less dire for a good chunk of the American population even if the Republicans and Democrats failed to form a united front against the radicals in the 1936 eleciton.
In addition, both Jack Reed and Huey Long, in their radicalism, unintentionally made themselves come across as unreasonable and obstructionists to the American public... Partly thanks to the US government working together with the media outlet under
William Randolph Hearst, and partly because they WERE indeed so blinded by their ideological conviction as to make them come across as unreasonable and obstructionists to the majority of Americans... Such as when they protested the free trade agreement with the Entente as 'treachery', even when it is the best that the Federal governent could have realistically gotten considering the situation, or that technically speaking, the Federal government did not even gave up anything to the Canadians since they would not be able to pay back to debts at the moment reguardless. Or that after the election of Alf Landon in 1936, Reed and Long's very public and very immture personal attacks on the president both right after the election as well as during the National Econmic Conference organized by the Secretary of Commerce made them lose the support of the more moderate elements inside their own parties.
Essentially, the moment that President Landon manged to rally both the etablishment Republicans and Democrats in Congress to pass his 'New Deal' econmic intervention bill, even without a formal coaltion between the two parties, Long, being the power hungry demagogue
(Even if a well intentioned one) that he is, KNEW that the shacky coalition that is the AFP will fall apart and fade into political obscurity within a few years at most thanks to the New Deal actually fixing the economy. By that point, it will be a matter of time before the Federal government started cracking down on all the shady and corrupt dealings that he had engaged in over in Louisiana, using them as an excuse to either put him in jail or remove him from politics for life. Hence, Long knew that his option was either to pull a desperate, Hail Mary 'YOLO' attempt by use the Great St. Louis Riot as a pretext to mobalize both the Minuteman and the Silver Leagion to overthrow the Federal governent RIGHT NOW before his movement runs out of steam... Or to step down quietly while he is still ahead... And Huey Long is absolutly NOT the type to ever step down quietly no matter what. Hence, his infamous radio address calling the United States a 'dead nation' and rallying the AFP for open rebellion, kicking off the SACW.
As for Reed, while the SPA's situation was not as dire as that of Long and the AFP. The SPA's leadership had two options in front of them after Long declared the AUS and kicked off the Second Civil War:
(1) Support the Federal government and their bourgeois republic, trying to negoicate and get as much concessions on behalf of the working class out of the establihsment as possible in their moment of weakness;
(2) Attempt to overthrow the bourgeois republic themslves via armed struggle while the reactionaries are busy killing each other.
If say, Curtis or Olson were the President, Reed, under the infuence or the more moderate members of the SPA such as
Norman Thomas, he might have been open to the first option... But given his personal distate to the point of outright hatard towards Landon as a 'class traitor' due to the latter's bussiness background in the oil industry, Reed allowing his inner Lenin and Bolshevik fanboy since his days withnessing the Russian Revolution back in the 1910s to take over. With him not at all being incline to rein in the radicals himself, but instead, allowed them to do their thing. With the Red Guard militia already mobalized in response to the AFP doing the same for their own paramilitary during the Great St. Louis Riot, he simply stood aside, and allowed the radicals in the SPA such as the
Foster's Totalists and
Browder's Vanguardists factions to do their thing until an open rebellion against the Federal government was declared by the party.
The goal here for both Reed and the radical elements of the SPA would have been to replicate the conditions of the
French Civil War that put their comardes over in CoF in power, in which the CGT started off merely wanting to negoicate with the Provisional Government, but the Leninist Jacobins, a small faction of radicals inside the movment, more or less forced the otherwise moderate majorty into declaring a revolution alongside them instead.... Hence in this case, if the 'Center' of the movment sided with the radicals from the start, surely they would be able to take Washington in a week, kick down the door of the White House, and the working masses will follow, resulting in the reactionaries with their rotten strture will collapse?
The rest, as they say, is history.
As for why Second Civil War was such as curb stomp by the Federalists agaisnt both the CSA and AUS...
- The AUS was doomed from the start. The AFP's support base is entirly centered within the South, and have little appeal or support outside of the area. Plus, even within the South, the AFP's control was not as firm as the SPA's was in the Steel Belt, with the Democrats still maintaining a sizeable support base. Hence, when you get the events about the state legislatures in the South voting to join American Union State, it would have been more accuate to instead say
'Minuteman and Silver Leagion stormin the state legislatures at gunpoint while shooting into the ceiling, arresting all the Democrat repersentatives, and having the remaining AFP repersentatives hold a sham vote to declare for Long'.
Futhermore, the AUS would have all the same problems as the Confedercy did in the First American Civil War: Namely, the lack of industry and manpower compare to the rest of the country.... Without even
'King Cotton' on their side this time. And while the AUS did managed to punch way above their weight thanks to many of the US military's most talented generals such as Patton, Devers, and Collins defecting to the Longist cause... The vast, VAST majority of the US miltiary's manpower, and more importanly, their gear, remained loyal to the Federal government. Meaning that no matter now talented the AUS generals might have been, the majority of troops under their command would have been untrained Minuteman and Silver Leagion miltias, suplmented with a limited number of National Guard defectors... All of which would be suffering from supply problems from Day 1 due to the South's limited industrial capicity. And while Germany and Austria-Hungary did sent over miltray aid and advisors to the AUS... It was nothing compared to the aid that the Federal governemnt recieved from both the Entente and the South American nations that have an interest in maintiain the status quo in the Western hemisphere by ensureing that the Federal government comes out on top.
- For the CSA, their situation is much more complicated: In the DH verison of KR, there was a special small scale senarios that allow you to play as either the British government or the TUC during the
British Revolution... When playing as the TUC, there is one thing that you need to do above all else if you wish to win: never stay still, maintain your momentum, and keep on make gains early on even if it means leaving areas that you have just taken undefended.
While the government troops might have the advantage in firepower and orgaization at the start, as long as you were able to give the appearance of you winning early on by capturing terrtories, more and more workers and opptunist
(Such as Mosley) will either get radicalized or see which way the wind is blowing and flock to the crimson banners of the revolution, allowing you to snowball and out-number the government loyalists evenually... It was the same situation in the SACW, but unlike the British comardes of the TUC, the CSA failing to gain said initial momentum needed for them to snowball.
A key factor of why the CSA failed to gain the needed momentum early on being the the 'Valentine's Day Explosion' incident in 14th Febuary, 1937
(An event that was in both the DH, and used to be in the earlier verisons of the HOI4 verisons of the mod, but was removed for some reason). In which a UoB flagged merchant ship, the 'Edgar Williams', very publically and dramatically exploded in midele of New York habor only minutes after entering it... With it being revealed by the FBI after some investigation that it was smuggling a large volume of field artillery, tanks, and military aircraft from the UoB and CoF to help arm the CSA with heavy equipment.
In the mod, the incident was nothing but a bit of extra flavoring before war breaks out... But in TTL, it was what ultimatly doomed the CSA. In that:
(1) The explosion took place during the National Econmic Conference. Giving Hearst and his media outlet the smoking gun needed to prove to the public (Not entirely incorrectly, BTW), that Reed and the SPA were not only never negoicting with President Landon in good faith in the first place, but that he and his entire party were in fact all forign agents working on behind of the Internationale to destory America. Futher causing a devide within the SPA's ranks, and giving more people that might have otherwise sided with the CSA pause.
(2) If you look at the CSA's starting roster of commanders, with the exception of
Smedley Butler and
Herbert Holdridge, no other generals from the US military defected to the CSA. Meaning that the rest of their senior military command were made up of a bunch of upjumped majors, captains and even freaking privates such as
Oliver Law that were suddenly promoted to the rank of general, going from being in command of a battalion or brigade at most, to suddenly being in charge of entire armies... That is if their 'generals' were not outright trade union paramiliary organizers such as
John Tisa with zero actual military experince beyond street brawls suddenly getting pushed into a position of military command, forcing them to learn the art of war from scratch while the fight. The same applying to the rank-and-file of their Continental Army, with the CSA having even fewer professional soldier defectors
(And most importaly, their gear) compared to the AUS... And much of the heavy equipment that they were supposed to recived from their European comardes now at the bottom of New York Bay, with it taking time for London and Paris to organize another shipment. And sure, the CSA control the Steel Belt and its heavy industry, meaning that they could have produced their own heavy equipment and weponds evenually... But they would be at a disadvantage at the start, something that the Federalist would fully expliot.
(3) Most importantly, without that heavy equipment, not to mention the very public explosion weakening the CSA's support in New York amongst the population, it allowed Federalists to rally both the hastily militaized NYPD and the NY National Guard to prevent syndicalist militias from fully seizing control of New York and New Jersey. While the Red Guards in New York would continue to wage insurgency in the city against the Federalist forces for the rest of the war, the important thing here is that the CSA would NOT be in contol of New York Habor.... Leaving them with Philadelphia as their only sea port. With the Federalist maintaining control of the navy base in Norfolk, combined with the Canadians using the Royal Navy to maintain a blockade (Much easier to do with there only being one port of entry that you need to keep an eye on), the only way for international aid and volenteers to reach the CSA would be either via submarines and light blockade runners that managed to get though to Philadelphia, or via airlift coming in from Mexico, which would require the planes to fly over both Federalist and Longist airspace while under constant threat of interception. Either way, it would greatly reduced the volume of that the CSA was able to receive.
With the CSA's attempt at launching the 'Second American Revoluton' already being a case of the radical inside their movment trying force the majorty to go along with their armed stuggle in the first place, combined with their heavy losses early on due to the lack of equipment needed to go on the offensive
(Not helped by the afformentioned upjumped captains and trade union paramiliary organizers turned generals making a few costly tactical mistakes), the CSA never had their
'The proletariat gloriously rising up all over the country!' moment that they were betting on beyond an attempted uprising in Washington and Oregon by the
ILWU, or a shortlived sharecropper rebellion in Georgia, which were both quickly crushed by the Federalist and Longist respectively before they were able to cascade into a opening up a second front.
While on paper, the CSA should have supporters all over the country... In reality, many SPA voters might have been happy to recieve food aid and social welfare from the International Red Aid or take part in a union strike action... But committing high treason against the United States by fighitng for the CSA in a Civil War is something else entirely... Especially when it looks like they are losing and on the retreat from the start instead of making gains. With it being a much saver bet to simply keep your head down and wait for it to be over.
Take civil rights organization avoctaing for minority rights for example, while the syndicalist aligned
International Labor Defence openly sided with the CSA and attempted to rally African Americans to the revolution; The much larger and moderate
NAACP, on the other ahnd, stayed loyal to the Federal government and helped them organize the '
Double V campign' during the war. Many moderate or even fence-sitting radical progressives such as Eleanor Roosevelt MIGHT have been tempted to join the CSA.... But not when it look like they were losing from the start. And without the general uprising all over the country that Reed had hoped for, it became a self-fulfilling prophecy that doomed his revolution.