Alternate Electoral Maps

[lord caedus]

This is a pretty solid prediction. Have you posted it in the 2016 thread?

I have not. You're welcome to post it there if you like, but I'd hesitate to mention that it's what I would think the election results would be if held right now, not what I imagine 2016 would be like.

Then again, considering I did something similar to this in February 2012 that ended up being right on the money (minus Rubio)...

 

[Hominid]

I have not. You're welcome to post it there if you like, but I'd hesitate to mention that it's what I would think the election results would be if held right now, not what I imagine 2016 would be like.

Then again, considering I did something similar to this in February 2012 that ended up being right on the money (minus Rubio)...

I posted it there. Also, I know it's nitpicking, but I would have accounted for Hillary's Illinois advantage and Romney's Michigan advantage as well.

 

[lord caedus]

I posted it there. Also, I know it's nitpicking, but I would have accounted for Hillary's Illinois advantage and Romney's Michigan advantage as well.

Hillary hasn't lived in Illinois for nearly half a century, and I'd think that she wouldn't have any sort of home-state advantage there at all after her term as Arkansas' first lady & New York's junior senator.

As for Romney, I think he squandered any Michigan advantage he might have inherited from his father when he (as the Obama campaign was fond to point out three years ago) publicly stated that Detroit should have been allowed to go bankrupt.

 

[Marky Bunny]

The 1952 Presidential Map based on the "background events" in the Book "Dominion"
Adlai Stevenson won the 1952 Presidential Election beating the incumbent Republican "non-interventionist" President Robert A. Taft. The books states that the there have been twelve years of "Republican Presidents" including a different President won in 1940 most probably with Taft as Vice-President.

Stevenson & Sparkman 343 ev
Taft & Buffett 188 ev

 

[Marky Bunny]

I am going to a little series, with each Presidential Election from onwards with the losing candidate winning each state they lost by 10% and less.
1900

Bryan & Stevenson 291 ev
McKinlay & Roosevelt 156 ev
(States change: 10. Utah, Nebraska, Indiana, Maryland, Kansas, Ohio, Illinois, Delaware, New York, West Virginia).
1904

Roosevelt & Fairbanks 314 ev
Parker & Davis 162 ev
(States Change: 3. Maryland, Missouri, Delaware)
1908

Taft & Sherman 247 ev
Bryan & Kern 236 ev
(States change:7. Missouri, Maryland, Indiana, Montana, Delaware, Ohio, Kansas)

 

[Marky Bunny]

1912

Wilson & Marshall 290 ev
Roosevelt & Johnson 176 ev
Taft & Butler 65 ev
States change: 15. Idaho, Illinois, Wyoming, Maine, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Iowa, New Mexico, Kansas, Montana, Oregon, New Jersey, Wisconsin
1916

Hughes & Fairbanks 360 ev
Wilson & Marshall 171 ev
States Change: 10. New Hampshire, California, North Dakota, New Mexico, Missouri, Washington, Kentucky, Kansas, Ohio, Maryland
1920

Harding & Coolidge 382 ev
Cox & Roosevelt 149 ev
States Change:2. Tennessee, Oklahoma
1924

Coolidge & Dawes 305 ev
Davis & Bryan 189 ev
La Follette & Wheeler 37 ev
States Change: 10. North Dakota, Kentucky, Maryland, Montana, West Virginia, Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona, Missouri, Minnesota
1928

Hoover & Curtis 319 ev
Smith & Robinson 212 ev
States Change: 8. New York, Texas, Tennessee, Utah, Virginia, Connecticut, Wisconsin, North Carolina.

 

[Marky Bunny]

1932

Roosevelt & Garner 377 ev
Hoover & Curtis 154 ev
States Change: 6. New Jersey, Ohio, Massachusetts, Michigan, Kansas, West Virginia.
1936

Roosevelt & Garner 490 ev
Landon & Knox 41 ev
States Change: 4. New Hampshire, Kansas, Massachusetts, Delaware.
1940

Wilkie & McNarry 318 ev
Roosevelt & Garner 213 ev
States Change: 15. Wisconsin, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Minnesota, Ohio, Missouri, Wyoming, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Oregon, Idaho, Delaware.
1944

Dewey & Bricker 349 ev
Roosevelt & Truman 182 ev
States Change: 19. Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Illinois, Idaho, Maryland, New Hampshire, Oregon, New York, Connecticut, Minnesota, Massachusetts, New Mexico, Delaware, Kentucky, Nevada, Montana, West Virginia

 

[Marky Bunny]

1948

Dewey & Warren 336 ev
Truman & Barkley 157 ev
Thurmond & Wright 38 ev
States Change: 14. Ohio, California, Illinois, Idaho, Iowa, Nevada, Wyoming, Wisconsin, Colorado, Virginia, Utah, Washington, Montana, Arizona.
1952

Eisenhower & Nixon 295 ev
Stevenson & Sparkman 236 ev
State Change: 10. Tennessee, Missouri, Rhode Island, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Texas, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Washington, Illinois.
1956

Eisenhower & Nixon 408 ev
Stevenson & Kefauver 123 ev
States Change: 5. Tennessee, Minnesota, West Virginia, Washington, Kentucky.
1960

Nixon & Lodge 476 ev
Kennedy & Johnson 53 ev
Unpledged 8
States Change: 18. Hawaii, Illinois, Missouri, New Mexico, New Jersey, Minnesota, Delaware, Texas, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, North Carolina, New York, West Virginia, Arkansas, Maryland, Connecticut.
1964

Johnson & Humphrey 440 ev
Goldwater & Miller 98 ev
States Change: 6. Idaho, Florida, Nebraska, Virginia, Kansas, Utah.
1968

Humphrey & Muskie 367 ev
Nixon & Agnew 94 ev
Wallace & Le May 77 ev
States Change: 19. Missouri, New Jersey, Ohio, Alaska, Illinois, California, Delaware, Wisconsin, Tennessee, South Carolina, Oregon, Kentucky, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Montana, Colorado, Vermont, Florida.

 

[Marky Bunny]

1972

Nixon & Agnew 492 ev
McGovern & Shriver 46 ev
States Change: 4. Minnesota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Wisconsin.
1976

Ford & Dole 443 ev
Carter & Mondale 95 ev
States Change: 13. Ohio, Wisconsin, Mississippi, Hawaii, Pennsylvania, Texas, Missouri, New York, Florida, Delaware, Louisiana, Maryland, Kentucky.

 

[Marky Bunny]

1980

Carter & Mondale 297 ev
Reagan & Bush 241 ev
States Change: 20 Massachusetts, Tennessee, Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi, Kentucky, South Carolina, North Carolina, Delaware, New York, Maine, Wisconsin, Louisiana, Vermont, Michigan, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Connecticut, Oregon.
1984

Reagan & Bush 418 ev
Mondale & Ferrero 120 ev
States Change: 7 Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Iowa, New York, Wisconsin
1988

Dukakis & Bensten 280 ev
Bush & Quayle 258 ev
States Change: 12. Illinois, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Vermont, California, Missouri, New Mexico, Connecticut, Montana, South Dakota, Colorado, Michigan

 

[Marky Bunny]

1992

Bush & Quayle 346 ev
Clinton & Gore 188 ev
Perot & Stockdale 4 ev
States Change: 19. Georgia, New Hampshire, Ohio, New Jersey, Montana, Nevada, Kentucky, Colorado, Wisconsin, Louisiana, Tennessee, Iowa, Connecticut, Michigan, Delaware, Maine, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Oregon.
1996

Dole & Kemp 286 ev
Clinton & Gore 252 ev
State Changes: 11. Kentucky, Nevada, Arizona, Tennessee, Florida, Missouri, Ohio, New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire.

 

[lord caedus]

So I decided to do another "WI the election were held today using current polling". This time between Hillary & Romney, since he's ahead of Jeb for the GOP nomination in the latest polls I've seen. I only used the Elastic State Model and gave HRC a 2.5% boost in AR, a 5% boost in NY and subtracted 5% from her base in IL & 2.5% in HI.

The result...was not good for Romney.

Hillary Clinton (Democratic): 396 EV, 56.9% PV
Mitt Romney (Republican): 142 EV, 41.4% PV

 

[Fubart Solman]

I'm not sure if this has been done before. I took Roosevelt's 1912 percentages and compared them to La Follette's 1924 percentages. Oklahoma and Louisiana only had one of the two running, so I'm discounting them. Fortunately, both elections had the same EVs.

Roosevelt: 460
La Follette: 51
N/A: 20

 

[Marky Bunny]

2000

Gore & Lieberman 392 ev
Bush & Cheney 146 ev
States Change: 12. Florida, New Hampshire, Missouri, Ohio, Nevada, Tennessee, Arkansas, Arizona, West Virginia, Louisiana, Virginia, Colorado.
2004

Kerry & Edwards 355 ev
Bush & Cheney 183 ev
States Change: 9 . Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, Nevada, Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Virginia, Arkansas
2008

McCain & Palin 280 ev
Obama & Biden 258 ev
State Changes: 8. North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire
2012

Romney & Ryan 347 ev
Obama & Biden 191 ev
State Changes:11. Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan

 

[Turquoise Blue]

Since the TL-191 After the End thread is kinda dormant and I don't want to bump it, I'm posting the maps here.

1980

Morgan Reynolds (R-BC)/John Smith (R-CA): 281 EV
Theodore A. Abell (S-??)/????? (S-??): 174 EV
Mildred Morrell-Quigley (D-??)/????? (D-??): 153 EV

1984 (revised)

Morgan Reynolds (R-BC)/John Smith (R-CA): 482 EV
Robert Bronowski (S-PA)/Richard Short (S-OR): 84 EV
Porter Schmitt (D-IL)/Fred Kenelm (D-AB): 41 EV

 

[Hominid]

2004 is interesting. It's the same as OTL 2008 except with Indiana and North Carolina replaced with Missouri (which Obama barely lost) and Arkansas (which he lost by a landslide).

Meanwhile, TTL 2008 is OTL 2000, but with Iowa and Nevada switched.

 

[Marky Bunny]

2004 is interesting. It's the same as OTL 2008 except with Indiana and North Carolina replaced with Missouri (which Obama barely lost) and Arkansas (which he lost by a landslide).

Meanwhile, TTL 2008 is OTL 2000, but with Iowa and Nevada switched.

I didn't notice that at the time so thanks.

Looking at my 1980 map it produces the same electoral result as OTL 1976, and the map itself is not that dissimilar.

I might do the results from 1864 to 1900 next.

 

[Marky Bunny]

Here are the electoral maps from the elections from 1864 to 1900 What-if each state that was carried by the losing candidate by up to a 10% margin.
1864

McClellan & Pendleton 131 ev
Lincoln & Johnson 102 ev
State Changes: 8. New York, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Indiana, Michigan, Oregon, Illinois.
1868

Seymour & Blair 173 ev
Grant & Colfax 121 ev
State Changes: 8. California, Alabama, Indiana, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arkansas, Ohio

 

[Binky the Clown]

A map based on a pair of articles from Business Insider.

Democratic Party (Centrist) - 398 EV
Progressive Party (Left Wing) - 83 EV
Republican Party (Right Wing) - 57 EV

 

[Superman]

A map based on a pair of articles from Business Insider.

Democratic Party (Centrist) - 398 EV
Progressive Party (Left Wing) - 83 EV
Republican Party (Right Wing) - 57 EV

Okay, I used your articles to figure out how this would go, exactly:

Republican Party - 339 EVs
Democratic Party - 199 EVs

First, I equalized Obama and Romney's popular vote percentages in 2012, so both had exactly 50% (Florida, Ohio, and Virginia flipped red, but not enough to put Romney over the edge). Then, I used those percentages from the articles to split votes. Of course, to actually be accurate, I'd need the percentage of voters in each state that identify as conservative and those that identify as liberal.