@TimTurner, would you happen to have a map of congressional districts in 1992? I would be interested in mapping out what the results would have looked like in the Clinton + Perot Landslide Scenario.
Bush would definitely win the white vote in Alabama and South Carolina, I'm unsure about Virginia but it should be close.You are welcome. I have a question for you as well, related to the scenario. Based upon what you know of the demographics in 1992 (the country was ~80% white and 20% nonwhite then, as compared to 70% white and 30% nonwhite now), in which states do you think Bush won the white vote in? Obviously, he carried it in Mississippi, but what about South Carolina, Alabama, or Virginia, states decided by single digits here?
Here's a map that I created out of interest. I decided to take the 2016 election, and to give Richard Nixon's 1972 state by state vote percentages to Hillary Clinton. I gave her those percentages based upon how well she did in OTL, from her best state (Hawaii) to her weakest state (Wyoming). Nixon got 78.20% in Mississippi, so I gave the same share to Clinton in Hawaii. McGovern carried Massachusetts with 54.20%, so Trump wins Wyoming with the same share. I gave Clinton Johnson's 1964 share in the District of Columbia (85.50%) And this is the map that is produced:
Hillary Clinton (D-New York)/Timothy Kaine (D-Virginia)-534 EV-65.18%
Donald Trump (R-New York)/Mike Pence (R-Indiana)-4 EV-34.82%
Third parties are not included here, to make things easier. I would be interested in eventually seeing a county map for this.
What do you mean? A map of what the election would have looked life if Trump won 49 states and got Nixon's percentages? I can definitely do that.You should do the map with the reverse parties now
I'm not so sure. the idea of Tucker Carlson being POTUS really isn't any more ridiculous than the idea of Trump being POTUS was in late 2015... But on the other hand, Carlson doesn't have Trump's charisma and isn't a very good debator, so O'Rourke, Obama, or Gillum could easily trip him up in a debate, although I'm not sure if debate performances matter much anymore considering polls showed voters believed Hillary quite easily won all three debates in 2016.God I hope somehow Carlson wins the nomination
The blowout would be glorious
I'm not so sure. the idea of Tucker Carlson being POTUS really isn't any more ridiculous than the idea of Trump being POTUS was in late 2015... But on the other hand, Carlson doesn't have Trump's charisma and isn't a very good debator, so O'Rourke, Obama, or Gillum could easily trip him up in a debate, although I'm not sure if debate performances matter much anymore considering polls showed voters believed Hillary quite easily won all three debates in 2016.
I'll take it!I have one request.
Can somebody make the Rand Paul vs Joe Manchin map? I tried to make it several times but there are so many states I am not sure about.
ThanksView attachment 424590
The tickets are Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY)/Gov. Brian Sandoval (R-NV) and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV)/Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ). The only way I see Joe Manchin getting the Democratic nomination is if it's 2016, and he runs as Clinton's opposition instead of Bernie and he tacks to the left on fiscal issues while remaining socially moderate (thus winning blue-collar voters and young progressives), or if the left is absolutely fragmented in 2020.
Anyways, the relative moderatism (and presence of Sandoval) allows Paul to pick up Nevada and New Hampshire, but Manchin's platform of fiscal liberalism and social moderatism is very much in line with what southern blacks, hispanics, and working-class whites believe. As such, he takes the Rust Belt, all of Maine, and Georgia (rural black turnout is increased by his platform and Booker's relentless stumping). He also narrowly takes West Virginia, because many West Virginians would wholeheartedly support Uncle Joe in a bid for the White House.
Paul hangs on to Florida and Arizona by virtue of his platform being in line with voters there, and Manchin being the Democrat decreases progressive turnout, causing normally cobalt blue states like California and Oregon to waver a bit (and also thanks to San Diego/Orange County Business Republican-types showing out hard for Paul) because they don't have the blue-collar base that, along with minorities, keeps New York and Illinois solid blue.
I have a question for you. Are you still working on the 1992 county map for Bush + Perot?I'm not so sure. the idea of Tucker Carlson being POTUS really isn't any more ridiculous than the idea of Trump being POTUS was in late 2015... But on the other hand, Carlson doesn't have Trump's charisma and isn't a very good debator, so O'Rourke, Obama, or Gillum could easily trip him up in a debate, although I'm not sure if debate performances matter much anymore considering polls showed voters believed Hillary quite easily won all three debates in 2016.
I have a question for you as well. I've been thinking about posting another scenario, of the 2016 election if Clinton had won with the exact same percentage, and by the exact same margin, as Lyndon Johnson in 1964 (61.05-38.47%). Similarly, I was also thinking about posting one if Trump had won by the exact same margin, and with the exact same percentage, as Richard Nixon in 1972 (60.67-37.52%). In both instances, I would like to perform a uniform swing for every state, to make them accord with those results. Would you happen to know how to do so?Here’s a Google Trends map...
If people had voted with their searches then this is what an election between Donald Trump and George H.W. Bush would look like in December 2018:
George H.W. Bush - 402 EV
Donald Trump - 136 EV