Alternate Electoral Maps II
- Thread starter Aaaaasima
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@Temeraire, I notice that you've liked many of my Rutherford posts up to this point. I was wondering if you had any questions or other comments related to them.
Oh, not particularly. Landslide scenarios are interesting, if only to see how the geography changes. Have you thought about what any downballot races might look like?
I've posted articles and maps, over at Fiction Wiki, of the Senate, House, and gubernatorial elections in this timeline.
Here is another map that I've created. This map depicts the election results by congressional districts (in their present forms), of the Sandoval Landslide, within the New Rutherford Scenario, that I posted earlier (and can be found here: https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...ectoral-maps-ii.417468/page-353#post-17934207). I had to speculate as to what the results would be, but I figured Sandoval would win all but the most heavily Democratic urban/minority districts, along with a handful of rural/exurban districts (i.e. MA-01 and MA-04 in Massachusetts, MN-08 in Minnesota, WA-06 in Washington, TX-28 in Texas, etc.). Given the county results, this seems somewhat reasonable. @TimTurner, do you think these results are reasonable?
Overall, Sandoval wins ~370 congressional districts; Murphy carries 65.
Overall, Sandoval wins ~370 congressional districts; Murphy carries 65.
How could a Republican win the Mississippi 2nd and Alabama 7th districts?
If you look at the county map here (https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...ectoral-maps-ii.417468/page-353#post-17934207), which I referred to in my post, a case can be made that both districts go Republican. I used Nixon's maps from 1972 for Alabama and Mississippi, and it was established earlier that Sandoval gains ~25% of the black vote. Combining that with overwhelming dominance among white voters, I think, as well as considering the county results, would make those districts flip. And as noted, it is within the New Rutherford Scenario, which is an alternate timeline.
Interestingly enough, most Black Voters in the South are reliably Conservative. If the Republicans dropped the barely-veiled racism and did some real outreach, they could achieve nigh-unprecedented dominance across the entire South without the need for any kind of Voter Suppression.
This timeline supposes that Republicans do just that. Democrats still have an overwhelming hold on the black vote, but Republicans are capable of getting up to 15-30% of the black vote from time to time, unlike in our reality.
Also, @Temeraire, if you go back to my prior Rutherford post, you'll see that I posted a new version of the election results by congressional district for that election, using the same template that I used for Sandoval's results. I find it to be a much better and more visually appealing template than the old one I had.
Surprised, would expect the Nile to be much higher in population.
I see. I just wanted to make sure. I speculated on this map, in contrast to the painstaking district-by-district calculations that I performed for the Rutherford Scenario.
It's a Democratic landslide in a alternate timeline set in the modern day. I've invested a considerable amount of time and effort into developing it.
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