Alternate Electoral Maps II

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@Pericles what would the likely result be if Huckabee won the R nomination in 2008?
My feeling is that McCain was the strongest GOP candidate for 2008, and anyone else would have lost to Obama by more. 2008 was just a very anti-GOP year. And Huckabee isn't a strong GE candidate with good appeal to swing voters, from 2008 the limited(and this kind of polling is typically unreliable) polling had Obama crushing Hucakbee in a landslide(https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_huckabee_vs_obama-516.html)
 
My feeling is that McCain was the strongest GOP candidate for 2008, and anyone else would have lost to Obama by more. 2008 was just a very anti-GOP year. And Huckabee isn't a strong GE candidate with good appeal to swing voters, from 2008 the limited(and this kind of polling is typically unreliable) polling had Obama crushing Hucakbee in a landslide(https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_huckabee_vs_obama-516.html)
so perhaps everything that went to McCain by less than 5 points flips, minimum? And also Alaska, which was within reach for Obama had Palin not been chosen?
 
An idea that I've come up with is the recreation of all of Scotland's old regional councils and devolve parts of Holyrood's powers to them. Such powers could be business rates, economic development, education, fire services, health, income tax, justice, local government, social security, stamp duty and transport. As a model, I've been working on Grampian.
This map shows how many seats there are for each ward - Light Green means single member whilst Orange means double member.
View attachment 400010

And looking at the results for last year's local elections in Aberdeen, Aberdeenshire and Moray, this is my maps showing the election result for my thing in Grampian.

View attachment 400012

And this is what the make up of the council looks like
View attachment 400017

And the seat total

Conservatives 32
SNP 11
Lib Dems 3
Labour 3
Independents 2
As a follow up to the post I've quoted, I've done Strathclyde

This map shows how many members per ward there are - Light Green means single member whilst Orange means double member.
Strathclyde RC Wards.png


And this map shows the results which are based on the results of last year's local elections.
Strathclyde RCE '17.png


And the seat total is
SNP 84
Labour 52
Conservatives 38
Independents 8
Lib Dems 2
Greens 1
 
My feeling is that McCain was the strongest GOP candidate for 2008, and anyone else would have lost to Obama by more. 2008 was just a very anti-GOP year. And Huckabee isn't a strong GE candidate with good appeal to swing voters, from 2008 the limited(and this kind of polling is typically unreliable) polling had Obama crushing Hucakbee in a landslide(https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_huckabee_vs_obama-516.html)
Obviously I don't think Obama would have won by the margins those polls showed, but I think he probably picks up Montana and Missouri as well as keeping his OTL states. Huckabee would do a bit better than McCain in the South and the same or worse everywhere else.
 
I will be posting a landslide map in the Rutherford Scenario for a Republican President soon, to provide a contrast to my useful preference for Democratic landslides.
 
In A World Where Al Smith Became President, Is Blamed For The Great Depression, and A New Party System Is Born:
If Al Smith became President, then the New Deal Coalition likely wouldn’t’ve happened, right? So assuming that’s true, it’s likely the GOP would be able to win over the people in that coalition (working class, southern whites, and minorities) which kind of makes all the presidents you mentioned illogical, barring some extenuating circumstance.... Correct me if I’m wrong, I’d like to hear your thoughts.
 
@Tex Arkana

Would you be willing to take a request?

I've always been curious as to what a county map result from a Democratic presidential candidate winning NE-03 would look like, if you're interested.
 
As promised, here is a landslide for a Republican President that I created under the Rutherford Scenario:


United States presidential election, 2028
Brian Sandoval (R-NV)/Nikki Haley (R-SC)-61.97%-532 EV
Christopher Murphy (D-CT)/Joaquin Castro (D-TX)-34.51%-6 EV
Others-3.59%-0 EV

And the county map:


Murphy wins only 130 counties, compared to 3,014 for Sandoval. Sandoval wins every county in Arkansas, Arizona, Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Nevada, Oklahoma, Utah, Vermont, and Wyoming. What would be the guesses on here for the vote by demographic?

Close States:
Margin of victory 1-5%:
Massachusetts-3.25%
Margin of victory 5-10%:
Minnesota-5.51%
Rhode Island-7.02%
Wisconsin-9.68%
 
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@GermanDjinn, what would be your guesses for the vote by demographic? Sandoval, from my map, seems to be pulling more support from one demographic in particular...
I'm guessing Sandoval wins the White vote by a very large margin, possibly up to 70-80%. I'm also gonna guess and say he wins the Hispanic and Asian vote by significantly smaller margins.
 
Also, I had asked in my Rick Scott post if you could do a map of Walker Stapleton winning by 16% in Colorado. I'm not sure if you saw that part of it.
Yeah, I did miss that at first. I'll do it in the morning when I get back home so I can go on my laptop.

These seem like very reasonable guesses. What about the black vote?
Well, I'd guess Sandoval probably cracks 20% of the black vote, just by glancing at the Black Belt. possibly ~25% even.

Does anyone have an idea for an electoral map?
How about this... 2020: John Kasich/Marco Rubio vs. Richard Ojeda/Sherrod Brown with both Bernie Sanders and Trump running third party after Kasich successfully primaries Trump?
 
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