Using the Mark III site and the six hundred pound anti submarine mine has a fairly high kill probability
I would really like to see your source for this conclusion.
If a direct hit could be achieved it should work but the UB is a very small target for a single dropped unguided weapon
(whatever bombsight is used from whatever height )
Worse a near-miss is not good enough
AIUI the size, shape and construction of a UB all make it VERY resistant to any air blast when on the surface no matter how close
If the 600lber is designed to attack a recently submerged UB, e.g. with a delayed fuze so it explodes underwater
it is also unlikely to work without a direct hit contacting the UB hull
A single large explosion in the water is greatly damped by any the water between it and the target
(as Barnes Wallace found with his dam experiments)
The effect is reduced further because the UB hull will move away in response to a blast (unlike a dam wall)
That is why depth charges were always dropped in groups of three or more to bracket the hull between
converging pressure waves.
As Alfred Price points out in his classic "Aircraft vs Submarine" weapons that explode on impact with the UB hull are much better at breaching it
which is why the 35lb Torpex warhead on a Hedgehog bomb in contact was enough to kill if it hit in most cases 👍
while a 250lb depth-charge warhead mere yards away would not 👎
OTL the Hedgehog was designed to kill dived U-Boats.
True, but then I was not proposing it to attack a
surfaced UB ... for that, a set of "rocket spears" is much better
(and in any case, a fully surfaced target was rare even at night with radar and a Leigh Light.
The target most often had time to attempt a crash dive ...hence the OTL need for shallow set depth charges as standard).
In truth (1) the surfaced UB. (2) the recently dived vessel and (3) a deep below submarine were very different targets
requiring separate attack methods. Therefore iOTL by 1944, some RAF VLR Liberators were carrying
- 6+ rocket spears to deal with UB caught on the surface (plus machine guns to suppress flak and harrass the crew)
- 4 -8 depth charges with true 25ft fuses for a UB that had just submerged
- a pair of FIDO passive acoustic homing torpedoes for a deeper diving target
(that info also from A vs S. I cant give you a page no. I read a lending library copy when I was an impoverished engineer )
You have confirmed that FIDO will not arrive any earlier than OTL
so increasing the effectiveness against a submerged target will be vital
I was suggesting that iTTL the depth charges could be replaced with cluster bombs deploying modified Hedgehog warheads.
Since the bomblets would not require a launching charge they would weigh only ~ 50lbs
allowing 6 or more in a carrier replacing a depth single charge of 450lbs
Therefore a VLR could make 2 separate attacks each equivalent to a shipboard launcher of 24 bombs
Given that a Hedgehog attack proved many times more effective than dropping of a group Depth Charges that would be a significant gain 💥
(even ignoring that a Hedgehog explosion would locate the target for an immediate second attack increasing the chance of a full kill)
With the PAM in place, this could be available by late 1941 at the worst.
BTW You may ask - can a Hedgehog charge work when airdropped?
Bringing the history of the Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard to life.
www.navalhistory.org
This was another airdropped weapon developed by the USN in WW2 that used the Hedgehog warhead
(though through adaptation via the rocket-powered Mousetrap shipboard launcher
and then further modified for use from an aircraft.
Of course, a key factor for the retrobomb was its use alongside an early MAD detector that fixed the location of the target closely
so that it could be deployed in smaller salvos than my proposed cluster carrier method)