AHC: Italy goes to war with Germany in 1934

[Carl Schwamberger]

Italy sending a army & a air corps into Austria is likely to galvanize France into action. The occupation of the Ruhr failed in 1924 for lack of support of the former Entente nations. Now France & Belgium have a Ally. They will start mobilizing against Germany.

 

[Napoleonrules]

Still under UK direction, US was not a signatory

Now are the Gulf Statelets not Arab?

No, the US was not a signatory, for political reasons, but the US put it together and it was not under UK direction, it was US direction. The Gulf States were not part of CENTO and I'm talking about CENTO.

 

[NoMommsen]

To get this happen, it's lesser Mussolini, who should be looked at but Hitler.

IOTL he VERY quickly (27.07.) distanced himself from the (fast and clearly failing) putschists, thereby minimizing any connections, that could somehow justify an italian, military action.

It would need some "leading up" :

• First and IMO most important in making Hitler much more interested in Austria at this point of time as he was still quite "busy" with his own domestics ("Röhm-putsch still had to be "digested"), frail Reichspresident and what would happen, if Hindenburg finally dies (expected almost every day).
• Second - as already mentioned - the Reichswehr had to be get "into the boat". ... IMO highly unlikely. At this point of time they were still - beside maybe Blomberg and his "adjutant" Reichenau - sceptical about the austrian "Gefreiter" and far from unanimously accepting him as an actual supreme commander. Therefore : IF Hitler, without "proper" preparation on the Reichswehr side would try to start such an "austrian adventure" he would be very likely ... "removed" one way or the other by the militaries, by "simple" putsch or (IMO relativly short though bloodily) civil war

IF these two prerequisits would be fullfilled ... the July-putsch would have most likely looked very different, much better prepared operationally as well as diplomatically as well as militarily by Germany, ending in a Vienna-Nazi goverment on 27th-28thth july the latest, asking Germany for "help" to restore order, which would be given on 30st July, "plebiscite" ihn Austria announced at 1st-2nd August.

Any militarily intervention by Italy would look ... not good internationally, beside taking also some time, at least a fortnight IMO, to be set in motion, by which time the "plebiscite" might have already happened.

Tbh : in 1934 I don't see anybody backing an italian military intervention, respectivly war against Germany, esp. if they could show such an obviuos "peoples will" as a plebiscite.

Therefore your PoD would also have to adress

• Third - the diplomatical developments since Hitlers take-over of power in Germany, LoN, dearmament conference, Four-Power-Pakt in summer 1933, german-polish non-agression treaty, etc..

 

[Hörnla]

Tbh : in 1934 I don't see anybody backing an italian military intervention, respectivly war against Germany, esp. if they could show such an obviuos "peoples will" as a plebiscite.

I agree, though I'd expect tacit approval for the Italians coming from most of Germany's neighbours. By 1934, appeasement was not yet the standard mode of operation when dealing with Hitler, but rather a "wait and see"-approach in which a destabilization of National Socialist rules wouldn't be unwelcome. A repeat of the Ruhr-occupation is not in the cards, especially as the legal Situation (concerning the reparations) has changed massively since 1923.