Assuming Karloman survives and fights with Charlemagne, could a Lombard Version of Charlemagne arise in Western Europe? Italy despite being ravaged by the Gothic Wars and Lombard Invasions was still the wealthiest region in the Mediterranean world. Assuming some military genius Italo-Roman/Lombard King emerges, could he create some sort of Italian centered Holy Roman Empire with a more Romanesque identity with it being connected to Italy rather than France or Germany? How would this nation develop? How would the Eastern Emperor react to an Italian proclaiming himself Augustus?
 
As long as Lombards had failed to control all Italy (not even keeping a single political entity), it is difficult to think that any Lombard ruler would even engage in expanding his realms outside Italy, at least in the short/medium term (thinking that we are in the 8th century).

Italo-Romans were still tied to Byzantine assistance and looking for foreign help in order to sack the Lombards from there. Not likely.

A more likely option I can see is that some foreign people different to Franks wipe the Lombards out of Italy and restore the HRE in an analogue way to Charlemagne's, but keeping the center of the Empire actually in Rome/Milan/Ravenna. Maybe the Avars or the Magyars could be an option if they would have been 'Romanized' quickly by some way.
 
As long as Lombards had failed to control all Italy (not even keeping a single political entity), it is difficult to think that any Lombard ruler would even engage in expanding his realms outside Italy, at least in the short/medium term (thinking that we are in the 8th century).
Well what if they took inspirations from the Ostrogoths and Visigoths. Could the Lombards theoretically use the Italo-Roman population to help them administer their demense. Lets say when Constantine V is warring with the Bulgarians the Lombards take advantage and overrun the Exarchate earlier and extend their control to the Italian peninsula excluding Sicily and Sardinia. Maybe they could expand into the Balkans and to the Danube like the Ostrogoths did in otl. With a Lombard friendly Pope in Rome, and the King crushing Pagans in the Balkans and fighting off the Avars, would the Imperial Crown now go to Lombard King instead of the Franks?

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Here's Odoacer's realm
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Here's the Ostrogothic Kingdom at its height.​
 
A more likely option I can see is that some foreign people different to Franks wipe the Lombards out of Italy and restore the HRE in an analogue way to Charlemagne's, but keeping the center of the Empire actually in Rome/Milan/Ravenna. Maybe the Avars or the Magyars could be an option if they would have been 'Romanized' quickly by some way.

I don't feel that that's particularly likely. Most Italians didn't have much problem with the Lombards, but one important one did: the Pope. The Popc throughout the Lombard period was terrified by being surrounded by a united Lombard state and made subservient to it, and resorted to playing different powers against one another to prevent this from happening (the Lombard King, different powerful factions, the Byzantines, the Franks as well as the two southern Lombard Duchies of Benevento and Spoleto). Its interesting to note that this did not change after the Lombards converted to Catholicism.

That being said, there is no reason to assume that a Lombard King couldn't unite the entire peninsula - this actually came very close to happening under King Luitprand. However, in order to do so, they are going to have to deal with the Pope; either finding some accord (such as setting the Duchy of Rome aside and promising to recognize the Pope's authority there in exchange for something. Though this was tried a number of times with the Pope often refusing) or else marching on the city and replacing the Pope with a more compliant pontiff.

However, I can't see any other group invading Italy to be more successful than the Lombards, as the Pope would still be worried about being encircled and losing his independence.
 
the Pope. The Popc throughout the Lombard period was terrified by being surrounded by a united Lombard state and made subservient to it, and resorted to playing different powers against one another to prevent this from happening (the Lombard King, different powerful factions, the Byzantines, the Franks as well as the two southern Lombard Duchies of Benevento and Spoleto). Its interesting to note that this did not change after the Lombards converted to Catholicism.
Well the dynamic between the Papacy and the Ostrogoths and the Papacy and the Lombards is different. The Ostrogoths emerged during the post Roman Era when the Pope was simply the Bishop of Rome. Plus the Papacy was treated as a religious office under the Empire.

After the second Roman collapse during the Lombard invasion, the Exarchate of Ravenna was crumbling and one of the factions that emerged was the Papacy which gained secular control over the Duchy of Latium. The Pope also gained more importance as the rift between East and west emerged. The Patriarchates of Antioch, Jerusalem, and Alexandria the other co-equals/rivals to the authority of the Bishopric of Rome was lost to Christendom. This only meant that there was Rome and Constantinople. Rome became important in the West as it was tied to the old Roman system. The East shifting to Iconoclasm and Hercalius's Monophiletism alienated the West as well. The Pope when the Lombards came wanted to preserve his independence and not be subservient to the Lombard King.

southern Lombard Duchies of Benevento and Spoleto
They were technically part of the Lombard Kingdom though. And when a Lombard King mustered an army they paid lip-service to the King. I suppose a more successful Lombard Kingdom would attempt to pacify them and intergrate it into the Kingdom proper.

ing Luitprand. However, in order to do so, they are going to have to deal with the Pope; either finding some accord (such as setting the Duchy of Rome aside and promising to recognize the Pope's authority there in exchange for something.
Maybe instead of the donations of Pepin this is the settlement. The Pope retains control of Latium and the King is seen as the de-facto protector of the Pope. Maybe when a group of Saracen pirates attacks Rome, the Lombards come to the aid of the Pope and Rome cementing a Papal-Lombard alliance.
 
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