Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by Oppo, Aug 5, 2017.
Me like, but that's not Dave Barrett in the photo.
Just found this TL and I'm quite intrigued, especially by the latest update… the next election is going to be exciting.
Chrétien had been elected against another of the giants of Canadian politics. Looking back, his historians believe that Chrétien was the right man elected at the wrong time. Soon after he took office, Canada would enter an economic recession like their Southern neighbor. Chrétien implemented new taxes which were opposed by Preston Manning and Kim Campbell. The move was compared to American President George H.W. Bush increasing taxes at home. Liberals attacked back, saying that the deficit under Mulroney had to be lowered. The taxes were less of a blunder than thought, despite Preston Manning's continuous protests.
Free trade was another major Liberal campaign issue in 1988. Chrétien had promised to renegotiate the Canada-United State Free Trade Agreement to favor Canada more. Protectionists in Congress had also been raising issues with the agreement, leaving Bush and Chrétien to work out a new deal. Neither side was happy, but most people would agree that it was better than the original agreement.
With the new PPMQ created, Quebec sovereignty was a big issue. The Prime Minister believed that Meech Lake should be edited to recognize Quebec as a distinct society, but to have the Charter of Rights and Freedoms be more powerful. Edmonston had been attacking the Prime Minister on this, saying that it was taking all of Quebec's powers away. Barrett and Manning believed that Chrétien was giving Quebec too much power, which further divided the NDP. Campbell had opposed this, taking a position in between that of Edmonston and Chrétien. Chrétien was narrowly able to get his amendment passed, with Manitoba and Newfoundland barely passing it in time.
Chrétien's advisors saw an increase in national polling for the Liberals after the amendment succeeded. A new election would be called for August 1992. All of the campaigns got prepared for their campaign. Chrétien's Liberals and Campbell's Conservatives were in a dead heat, but the clever money was on a Tory government. Barrett had the NDP's support fall, with some polls showing Reform in third instead of the conventionally third place NDP. The PPMQ had a poor showing, with Quebec being a spot for increased Tory gains. Action Canada had been the real shock, with Orchard's message resonating with both Tories, Grits, and Dippers.
Free trade had been brought back into the spotlight. It was unclear what the future of it would be with the U.S. Presidential race being a dead heat between President Bush and his Democratic and independent opponents. Action Canada and Reform had adopted the most protectionist positions of the different parties, with both wanting to end all agreements with the U.S. Despite the Liberal Party wanting to move on from the issue, the minor parties were able to keep it relevant. Edmonston and Campbell had attacked Chrétien's negotiated Meech Lake accords to help gain standing in Chrétien's home province of Quebec. However, the main issue would be the economy. The PCs and Reform had wanted to lower the deficit, with Reform wanting to balance the budget. Chrétien had a detailed plan for the future in his campaign manifestos, which would continue his policies as Prime Minister. Barrett's NDP had been known for high amounts of spending in British Columbia, but the policy had been more popular in an economic recession. Orchard had a pro-monetary reform policy along with Orchard's agrarian populist message. The PPMQ had a big-tent position, but Edmonston had contradicted that nature in some of his campaign. In the debates, all leaders managed to hold their own. The French debate was a winner for Chrétien with Campbell in second, while the English one was a win for Orchard with Campbell also in second. Chrétien had hoped to win a minority government, Campbell had hoped she could get a majority, Barrett had hoped for a strong showing in the West and Ontario (as a response to the unpopular Harris government), while Manning, Edmonston, and Orchard had hoped to get official party status.
Chrétien had presented himself and the Liberals as strong and reliable leadership. Ultimately, the election was a move against the "insiders", which Chrétien (who had been in politics since 1963). The PCs would win a majority government. Chrétien announced his resignation as Liberal leader, while Barrett was defeated in his own riding.
Next update will be the 1992 U.S. presidential election.
Well, not the chaos I imagined, but still some major ripples. Looks like Reform and alt-Block are more-or-less DOA. It's cool to see Campbell have a chance to govern, and it's fun to see it happen in an inverse of the '93 election.
Am I reading it right that Chrétien got Meech Lake through? That's a major achievement; if the Quebec sovereignty movement remains so dejected, I can see Chrétien being very well-regarded indeed.
If I may, though, I don't think Barrett would lose re-election. Between southern Vancouver Island being fertile territory of the NDP, Reform being weaker, Barrett's NDP taking up the cause of Western Alienation, and the bump he'd receive for being the leader… it's exceedingly implausible he'd be unseated. If you have a specific idea in mind for the NDP that requires his defeat, then fair enough— but I'd still make a note in the write-up just to say it's a shocking result.
Barrett lost by almost ten points IOTL.
Yes, but under vastly different circumstances. As I said, the differences in this TL make a huge difference.
I think that with three different Western populist third parties and a PC leader from BC, it would be harder to win.
I disagree, but I don't want to clog the thread up with the argument so I'll leave it there. Looking forward to the next update.
Thanks for all the feedback. Apologies for the lack of an update today.
take your time.
President George Bush started out the 1992 campaign season with the strongest position of any incumbent President in recent memory after the successes of the Gulf War. After losing the 1988 election in a landslide with Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis, the Democrats searched for a new candidate, but few ran. New York Governor Mario Cuomo, Tennessee Senator Al Gore, Texas Senator Lloyd Bentsen, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley, and much more declined to run. Saturday Night Live even aired a sketch with the five debating to avoid being a candidate.
However, a few would make a shot for the nomination. Virginia Governor Douglas Wilder would be the first African-American nominee of a major party and was a supporter of gun control as governor. Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton had given the disastrous keynote speech in 1988 and had been noted for his educational reform. Former Oregon Governor Neil Goldschmidt was Carter's Transportation Secretary and had also taken Oregon out of an economic recession. Nebraska Senator Bob Kerrey and Utah Congressman Wayne Owens were Western populists and liberal stalwarts. New York Congressman Stephen Solarz had a neoconservative platform, who had strong ties to India. Finally, former Massachusetts Senator Paul Tsongas had promised to cut government spending, while former California Governor Jerry Brown had an odd mix, including a flat tax and universal health care.
Clinton was the first to drop out, with an affair with model Jennifer Flowers destroying his campaign. Wilder also dropped out before the primaries, deciding to focus on being governor. This would get the DLC vote behind Goldschmidt. Sure enough, Goldschmidt would win the first contest, the Iowa caucus. New Hampshire would give a surprise win to Owens, would run a liberal campaign. This would be a big blow to Tsongas and Kerrey. Tsongas would drop out, with his hopes of winning over. Maine would continue Owens' success, with the Utah Congressman calling for "a new direction". Super Tuesday would establish a clear Owen-Goldschmidt race, but the former Oregon Governor would win most contests. Goldschmidt's Southern success gave him a delegate lead that Owens could not keep up with. Still, Owens had run the most successful left-wing insurgent campaign since George McGovern in 1972. Goldschmidt would pick his former rival, Stephen Solarz as his running mate.
The Republicans would have a brief contest. Former Texas Congressman Ron Paul, with the support of Nixon strategist Pat Buchanan, had beat Bush in the New Hampshire primary. Louisiana Senator David Duke had also won his home state's contest, but Bush would take all of the remaining primaries. With that shock, Bush decided to take a risk and drop Vice President Dan Quayle from the ticket with the advice of Secretary of State James Baker. In his place would be South Carolina Governor Carroll Campbell, who had record high approval ratings in his home state.
A third campaign would also be in the mix. Texas businessman Ross Perot, the founder of Electronic Data Systems and Perot Systems. On Larry King Live, Perot said he would announce a run if volunteers could get his name on the ballot in all fifty states. Volunteers would do that, and Perot would announce a run. Perot's campaign included Carter Cheif of Staff Hamilton Jordan and Reagan 1984 campaign chair Ed Rollins. In a campaign compared to Preston Manning's Reform Party and David Orchard's Action Canada, Perot would attack free trade, the "political establishment", and the national debt. For a running mate, Perot considered former UN Ambassador Jeane Kirkpatrick, Senator Warren Rudman, Governor John Silber, and Illinois Senator Paul Simon. Ultimately, he would pick a shocking choice, Vice President Quayle.
Perot had surprisingly taken a lead in the polls, with Bush in second and Goldschmidt in third. After the conventions, Goldschmidt had made the most ground, while Perot had lost some (with only a minor "independence convention"). Perot, however, made up ground in the debates, with the uncharismatic Bush and overconfident Goldschmidt making poor performances. The VP debate would have Campbell having the strongest performance, with Quayle, despite attempts by the campaign to polish up his campaigning skills, not being able to get rid of the "potatoe" image.
1988 had been an election dominated by scandal, from Joe Biden plagiarizing Jean Chrétien, to Pat Robertson's military record, to Gary Hart's affairs, and Atwater's attempts to make the election as nasty as possible. However, 1992 would have the biggest scandal in American campaign history at that point. The "Halloween Suprise" was a leaked story about the Oregon Governor having a sexual relationship with a 14-year-old girl while he was Mayor of Portland. Goldschmidt publicly admitted to the affair and asked voters to give him a second chance. Senior Democrats withdrew their endorsements. Some, like, Paul Simon, even endorsed Perot's campaign. While it was too late to remove him from the ticket, House and Senate leaders George Mitchell and Tom Foley encouraged their candidates to distance themselves from Goldschmidt.
On Election Day, Henry Ross Perot had become the first president elected as an independent since George Washington.
when you have an affair with a 14 year old and hope people will forgive you if you come clean but you give the democrats their worst result since 1860
First time I heard about Goldschmidt, Owens or Solarz!
This is a great TL Oppo, though I do have a question, why did Duke win Louisiana? And why would Perot pick Quayle?
Duke won because Bush still had not fully invested in his campaign and he was more concerned with other contests. Duke is also the Senator ITTL, so he has a much more powerful role. Quayle was picked as a way to get the conservative vote from Bush that felt betrayed by the "no new taxes" pledge. Quayle was also about the most high-profile person Perot could pick. However, Quayle, looking back, probably was a poor choice from Perot.
I have to say that that is the most interesting way to make President Perot that I have ever seen.
I'd assume the DLC is pretty toxic now. The "electability" argument looks very thin when you're electing paedos.
What the heck!?
What in particular?
Separate names with a comma.