shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
Predictions on Chrétien's term and future party leaders?
The NDP will Reform Party the Liberals?
Immediate thoughts:
  • Why Heffer? I know he ran in '83 IoTL, but there was a reason he only received 7-41-29, and constituency issues would have dogged him in any follow up. Hattersley would have been the natural successor had Kinnock died.
  • It wasn't the Falklands that wrecked Benn's chances IoTL, it was losing his seat.
  • What happened to David Owen? Why Maclennan and not someone like John Cartwright (Chief Whip), or Shirley Williams (Party President)?
  • Why would the Liberals/SDP enter a Grand Coalition for AV when they could easily just wait Thatcher out as Labour ate itself and have a shot at Government? Steel was famously opposed to any deals with the Tories, whilst Owen was open to the idea.
  • The numbers in the wikibox are off, and you may have to explain some of the seats (such as the Green Party?).
  • Where did that 6.5% of the Labour vote go?
 
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Thanks for your comment.
  • Why Heffer? I know he ran in '83 IoTL, but there was a reason he only received 7-41-29, and constituency issues would have dogged him in any follow up. Hattersley would have been the natural successor had Kinnock died.
Heffer had a stronger base than his rivals, along with a more successful grassroots effort.
  • It wasn't the Falklands that wrecked Benn's chances IoTL, it was losing his seat.
I don't see anything about that in the post.
  • What happened to David Owen? Why Maclennan and not someone like John Cartwright (Chief Whip), or Shirley Williams (Party President)?
Cartwright was loyal to Owen and Williams lost her seat.
  • Why would the Liberals/SDP enter a Grand Coalition for AV when they could easily just wait Thatcher out as Labour ate itself and have a shot at Government? Steel was famously opposed to any deals with the Tories, whilst Owen was open to the idea.
That's true, I was unsure about it myself.
  • The numbers in the wikibox are off, and you may have to explain some of the seats (such as the Green Party?).
That's SDLP, Plaid Cymru, and Sinn Fein. I'll fix the numbers.
  • Where did that 6.5% of the Labour vote go?
Mostly to the Alliance.
 
Heffer had a stronger base than his rivals, along with a more successful grassroots effort.
Shore was more likely, wasn't just an 'anti-EEC nationalist', and has a better chance of getting elected with both 'soft' left votes and 'hard' left votes. Hattersley isn't going to get it without some other PODs, but Heffer certainly won't - he's more likely to step aside and let Shore run to victory.
 
Shore was more likely, wasn't just an 'anti-EEC nationalist', and has a better chance of getting elected with both 'soft' left votes and 'hard' left votes. Hattersley isn't going to get it without some other PODs, but Heffer certainly won't - he's more likely to step aside and let Shore run to victory.
You've convinced me, I'll switch to Shore.
 

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
I don't see anything about that in the post.
Kinnock had been an opponent of the Thatcher's leadership in the Falklands War and the Militant faction of the Labour Party (being thought to have destroyed Tony Benn's campaign for Deputy Leader).

Which on the initial read would have implied that both factors were related to Benn's failure in the Deputy Leadership.
Cartwright was loyal to Owen and Williams lost her seat.
Yes but that doesn't really answer my question about Owen.
Mostly to the Alliance.
Right but it's a 16.3% swing away from the big two- with the Alliance only getting 10.9% of that, there is an unaccounted 5.4%.
 
Kinnock had been an opponent of the Thatcher's leadership in the Falklands War and the Militant faction of the Labour Party (being thought to have destroyed Tony Benn's campaign for Deputy Leader).

Which on the initial read would have implied that both factors were related to Benn's failure in the Deputy Leadership.
I could see how one would think that, I will fix it.
Yes but that doesn't really answer my question about Owen.
Perhaps he makes some comment on the Liberals that would divide the Alliance.
Right but it's a 16.3% swing away from the big two- with the Alliance only getting 10.9% of that, there is an unaccounted 5.4%.
Sorry about that, with higher turnout, minor parties get increased support.
 

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
They weren't the sole party to gain in percentage, it was still quite small.
This isn't a matter of percentage, this is that the pre-split Green Party has parliamentary representation (and by the looks of it quite a bit),
 
The 1990 PC Leadership Election
The race to decide Mulroney's successor at the PC Party would be highly contested. In terms of Canadian leadership elections, only the Liberals in 1968 could beat the 1990 Progressive Conservative convention. The first natural question would be if Joe Clark, the former Prime Minister and Secretary of State for External Affairs. Clark turned down a bid to run, with the relationship with him and Mulroney being quite turbulent. Eleven candidates would declare their runs once Clark declined. Perrin Beatty, the former Defense Minister had been thought as a potential leader for years. Secretary of State Lucien Bouchard was an old friend of Mulroney, coming from his home province of Quebec. Derek Burney was Mulroney's Chief of Staff and a diplomat. Newly elected MP Kim Campbell had a history in British Columbian provincial politics and would be the first female PM. Another newly elected MP would be Bill Casey, an environmentalist with a history in business. Doug Ford, the CEO of Deco Labels & Tags wanted to significantly move the party to the right. Ontarian MP Robert Horner was a retired Mountie. Airbus Chairman Karlheinz Schreiber was also close with Mulroney and had a history in both Canada and Germany. Tory political strategist Hugh Segal was a member of Ontario's "Big Blue Machine." Finally, former Minister of Finance Michael Wilson was another choice from 1983.

It was believed at the time that Mulroney was privately supporting Bouchard or Schreiber. However, Schreiber's campaign would be knocked out by a scandal that he was involved with secret payments with Frank Moores in exchange for contracts to Airbus. Ford's grassroots campaign would also gain support with the right of the party. Burney and Horner would both drop out before the balloting, endorsing Bouchard and Campbell. The first ballot would give a win to Bouchard, with his opposition divided. Second would be Wilson, followed by surprisingly strong showings by Campbell, and fourth going to Beatty. Schreiber was eliminated (declining to endorse), while Segal and Casey withdrew (endorsing Campbell and Bouchard). The second ballot would have Bouchard keep his lead, while Campbell moved to second and Wilson to third. Ford would be eliminated (endorsing no one). It would seem that Campbell and Bouchard would lead a new generation of moderate Tories, with Beatty left in the dust. Sure enough, he would be eliminated on the third ballot, but the main news was that Campbell would take the lead. Wilson's conservative base was falling apart, with them backing one of the two major candidates to gain influence. After his elimination on the fourth ballot, it would be an expected win for Campbell.

Brian Mulroney was going to make a special announcement. The commentator camps from both camps believed Mulroney would endorse either one of them, giving a clear victory. However, instead of endorsing a candidate, he would announce a run himself. The former Prime Minister wanted to end Campbell's career and hopes for the nomination. Bouchard would be outraged by Mulroney's decision, not only did he betray their friendship, but he went through all the hoops to enter the race. Campbell's opposition research team believed that Mulroney would have a link to the Schreiber scandal. They were able to find a link through a former Schreiber campaign official who remained anonymous. Campbell campaign manager John Tory believed that allowing Mulroney to finish second and then releasing the scandal would give a sure victory. Mulroney made several gaffes, accusing Campbell of marital problems, saying she wouldn't be able to focus on a campaign, and calling her vain. By the narrowest of margins, Mulroney would get second. Bouchard quickly gave his endorsement to Campbell to stop Mulroney. With that and Tory leaking out the Schreiber story, it would be a large victory for Campbell. After this election, Campbell and Bouchard (as famously pointed out by This Hour Has 22 Minutes' Samantha Bee) have a had quite a rocky relationship with Mulroney, which can be seen at meetings of former Prime Ministers. Overall, despite minor opposition from some Blue Tories, Campbell had largely managed to unite the party.

hN1ky1b.png
 
The 1990 NDP Leadership Election & Two New Parties
Ed Broadbent had given the NDP their greatest success yet, even though they failed to make the Opposition. Broadbent himself was quite popular, beating both Trudeau and Mulroney in his approval. The party would need someone new to fill that gap. Seven candidates would come and announce a run.

Author Roger Lagassé doubted his potential to lead Canada, only running to raise awareness on issues. Ian Waddell, an MP from Vancouver had been Energy Critic and a supporter of aboriginal rights. Windsor-Lake St. Clair MP Howard McCurdy would be the first black parliamentary leader, and had a history as a civil rights activist. Simon De Jong was a notable supporter of disarmament and came from the party's base in Saskatchewan. The most left-wing candidate would be Steven W. Langdon, a two-term MP and economist. However, only two candidates would really have a chance. Audrey McLaughlin was the first NDP candidate to win in Yukon and was caucus chair. Dave Barrett was the former Premier of British Columbia had returned to politics, being elected in the 1988 election. Both McLaughlin and Barrett would differ on their beliefs for the party's future. McLaughlin believed that the NDP should focus on gaining seats in Quebec, giving her the support of Chambly MP Phil Edmonston (the first Dipper in Parliament from Quebec). Barrett wanted to increase the party's base in the West, with Manning's Reform eating into their support.

The first two ballots had McLaughlin and Barrett with a clear lead, with all of their other rivals left in the dust. De Jong, who had been eliminated on the second ballot, had announced his endorsement for Barrett. McLaughlin supporters suspected some deal doing on, but that argument was contradicted when she and Waddell were caught negotiating as part of a CBC documentary's microphone. This catapulted Barrett into first, gaining the support of Langdon. On the final ballot, Barrett would win a close race. The party would be divided, with Edmonston and his fellow delegates from Quebec walking out and leaving the NDP.

ewR2mgF.png


---

Initially, Edmonston sat in Parliament as an independent. However, he had wanted to start a new movement, believing that the PCs under Campbell would give up its pro-Quebec bent under Mulroney, while the Liberals and NDP had failed. Edmonston announced the formation of the new "Parti pour un meilleur Québec", or Party for a Better Quebec in support of Quebec nationalism. While Edmonston had hoped to get Liberals and Tories to defect to the PPMQ (even asking Lucien Bouchard to join, which the Foreign Affairs Critic laughed at), he would be the only MP. That would be until Gilles Duceppe would win a by-election in Laurier-Sainte-Marie. The PPMQ would have one less seat than the Reform Party, but would not be the only new third party.

Paul T. Hellyer was a cabinet member under the Pearson and Trudeau ministries. He was a candidate in the infamous 1968 Liberal convention but left the party in 1971 to form Action Canada. The party would be short lived, as Robert Stanfield asked him to join the PCs. Although he would lose his seat in 1974, he would run in the 1976 PC leadership election, losing to Joe Clark. Hellyer would remain silent from politics for a while but would renter to run for the riding of St. Paul's. He would win, narrowly defeating Barbara McDougall. However, he would become disillusioned with Chrétien's ministry.

Mel Hurtig would also be another nationalist former Liberal. Hurtig was the publisher of the Canadian Encyclopedia and an Officer of the Order of Canada. Hellyer and Hurtig would bring back Action Canada for the 1990s. They would need someone else more high profile than a political has-been and an unknown publisher. They would reach out to the charismatic "prairie socialist" and a strong candidate for the Liberal leadership in 1987, David Orchard. A charismatic rancher from Saskatchewan, Orchard would be the perfect candidate to boost their image with the NDP divided and Chrétien unpopular. Hellyer would be the party's temporary leader in Parliament, Hurtig would be a fundraiser, and Orchard would be the leader of the party and spokesperson. They would announce their new party in a press conference. Six different parties had representation in Parlament. It would be an exciting election season.
 
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Ed Broadbent had given the NDP their greatest success yet, even though they failed to make the Opposition. Broadbent himself was quite popular, beating both Trudeau and Mulroney in his approval. The party would need someone new to fill that gap. Seven candidates would come and announce a run.

Author Roger Lagassé doubted his potential to lead Canada, only running to raise awareness on issues. Ian Waddell, an MP from Vancouver had been Energy Critic and a supporter of aboriginal rights. Windsor-Lake St. Clair MP Howard McCurdy would be the first black parliamentary leader, and had a history as a civil rights activist. Simon De Jong was a notable supporter of disarmament and came from the party's base in Saskatchewan. The most left-wing candidate would be Steven W. Langdon, a two-term MP and economist. However, only two candidates would really have a chance. Audrey McLaughlin was the first NDP candidate to win in Yukon and was caucus chair. Dave Barrett was the former Premier of British Columbia had returned to politics, being elected in the 1988 election. Both McLaughlin and Barrett would differ on their beliefs for the party's future. McLaughlin believed that the NDP should focus on gaining seats in Quebec, giving her the support of Chambly MP Phil Edmonston (the first Dipper in Parliament from Quebec). Barrett wanted to increase the party's base in the West, with Manning's Reform eating into their support.

The first two ballots had McLaughlin and Barrett with a clear lead, with all of their other rivals left in the dust. De Jong, who had been eliminated on the second ballot, had announced his endorsement for Barrett. McLaughlin supporters suspected some deal doing on, but that argument was contradicted when she and Waddell were caught negotiating as part of a CBC documentary's microphone. This catapulted Barrett into first, gaining the support of Langdon. On the final ballot, Barrett would win a close race. The party would be divided, with Edmonston and his fellow delegates from Quebec walking out and leaving the NDP.

gx9AySJ.jpg


---

Initially Edmonston sat in Parliament as an independent. However, he had wanted to start a new movement, believing that the PCs under Campbell would give up its pro-Quebec bent under Mulroney, while the Liberals and NDP had failed. Edmonston announced the formation of the new "Parti pour un meilleur Québec", or Party for Better Quebec in support of Quebec nationalism. While Edmonston had hoped to get Liberals and Tories to defect to the PPMQ (even asking Lucien Bouchard to join, which the Foreign Affairs Critic laughed at), he would be the only MP. That would be until Gilles Duceppe would win a by-election in Laurier-Sainte-Marie. The PPMQ would have one less seat than the Reform Party, but would not be the only new third party.

Paul T. Hellyer was a cabinet member under the Pearson and Trudeau ministries. He was a candidate in the infamous 1968 Liberal convention, but left the party in 1971 to form Action Canada. The party would be short lived, as Robert Stanfield asked him to join the PCs. Although he would lose his seat in 1974, he would run in the 1976 PC leadership election, losing to Joe Clark. Hellyer would remain silent from politics for a while, but would renter to run for the riding of St. Paul's. He would win, narrowly defeating Barbara McDougall. However, he would become disillusioned with Chrétien's ministry.

Mel Hurtig would also be another nationalist former Liberal. Hurtig was the publisher of the Canadian Encyclopedia and an Officer of the Order of Canada. Hellyer and Hurtig would bring back Action Canada for the 1990s. They would need someone else more high profile than a political has-been and an unknown publisher. They would reach out to the charismatic "prairie socialist" and strong candidate for the Liberal leadership in 1987, David Orchard. A charismatic rancher from Saskatchewan, Orchard would be the perfect candidate to boost their image with the NDP divided and Chrétien unpopular. Hellyer would be the party's temporary leader in Parliament, Hurtig would be a fundraiser, and Orchard would be the leader of the party and spokesperson. They would announce their new party in a press conference. Six different parties had representation in Parlament. It would be an exciting election season.
Me like, but that's not Dave Barrett in the photo.
 
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