I think I'll go and edit this since I wasn't trying to suggest he was a Cohanim
A Superpower Qing Dynasty: Dulimbai Gurun in 2024
- Thread starter Canopus108
- Start date
given that the Qing are identified in that last update as the largest country in the world by landmass, I feel like the border might not exactly be at the 1860 frontier...
Russian expansion into the Siberian Plateau was fairly nominal by the Point of Divergence, so what happened there has not been the primary determinant of relations.
Relations are not as bad as the Ultramodernists, not as good as the Qing sphere proper, but the Qing are Russia's largest trading partner and Qing companies are market dominant. It's perfectly normal for journalists or business leaders from some European countries to travel to China including Russia like in the first post
Relations are not as bad as the Ultramodernists, not as good as the Qing sphere proper, but the Qing are Russia's largest trading partner and Qing companies are market dominant. It's perfectly normal for journalists or business leaders from some European countries to travel to China including Russia like in the first post
On that note, I assume the Qing being number 1 in size means that stuff like Ukrainian independence is still a thing ITTL? Also, what is Ultramodernism like? From Henry Ford's OTL beliefs, I assume it is basically "technocratic fascism" in vibes?
The history is not fully ironed out but the founding fathers are Charles Bedaux, Henry Ford, and Mussolini. It’s obsessed with efficiency and modernity (hence Ultramodernism) to the point of adopting time decimalisation. Ironically this has left them increasingly dysfunctional and they have more in common with Juche/Songbun than anything else. Ultramodernism was born as a reaction to a) the Qing’s rise b) the Qing’s continued sense of antiquity and conservatism and c) the failure of the protestant work ethic and Catholic universalism to challenge Qing authority. But since “scientific racism” is much weaker due to the Qing-led Tianxia Network their racism is closer to eugenics than nazism
Undecided but let’s just say that the Tsar’s weakness in the east mean it wouldn’t make a difference
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Well, having Ukrainian independence (and the same for Belarus, for that matter) would still be a nice bonus to cutting Russia down to size, especially if Ukraine ITTL gains the Kuban region, with how it had a lot of Ukrainians in the early 20th Century IOTL, and how Ukraine is the biggest country entirely in Europe. On that note, with *Fascism being an "Ultramodernist" ideology, can we get some glimpses on the "reactionary" right-wing ITTL as opposed to the "revolutionary, modernist not!fascists" of the Ultramodernists.
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Okay so I'm going to speculate on how would Chinese culture and society evolve in a superpower Qing China.
First is I'm going to guess that average clothing of average Chinese would be mishmash of traditional Chinese's clothing and probably modernized equivalents along with some Western style clothing sprinkle into it . Regional/ethnic clothing would still being used though not nearly as much compared to their Han/Manchu counterpart. Very sure elements of many regional/ethnic clothing would inspired many fashion trends as I'm imagine Qing China would have a massive fashion scene.
As for military I'm just going to imagine its going to be something like mixture between Taiwan/PRC military uniform and design from Manchu/Mongolian warrior gear thought I'm heavily thoughtful that be drastically different than any other military of modern era especially for practical combat though officers probably have vastly different uniform design along with countless other Imperial /Ceremonial military position.
First is I'm going to guess that average clothing of average Chinese would be mishmash of traditional Chinese's clothing and probably modernized equivalents along with some Western style clothing sprinkle into it . Regional/ethnic clothing would still being used though not nearly as much compared to their Han/Manchu counterpart. Very sure elements of many regional/ethnic clothing would inspired many fashion trends as I'm imagine Qing China would have a massive fashion scene.
As for military I'm just going to imagine its going to be something like mixture between Taiwan/PRC military uniform and design from Manchu/Mongolian warrior gear thought I'm heavily thoughtful that be drastically different than any other military of modern era especially for practical combat though officers probably have vastly different uniform design along with countless other Imperial /Ceremonial military position.
Hmm, I hadn't thought about fashion. I suppose there wouldn't be any hanfu revivalists like in the real China since that style of dress wouldn't have gone away in the first place. Perhaps it would be more like how fashion evolved in South Asia, except with less direct Western influence? Qing royals would almost probably not be dressed in Western ceremonial military uniforms with sashes and a million medals like the monarchs of Thailand, Japan, and Malaysia, though.
Prelude to the Great Game of the 1800s: Qing Frontier Settlement of the 1700s and the rebellion of Chingunjav
Yongzheng and Qianlong, perhaps the two greatest emperors of any nation in the history of the world, blessed the Qing with their successive reigns. Yet some have suggested they, as the Americans put it, were born on third base and thought they did a home run.
It is true that they inherited a great empire from Kangxi, the largest in the world by population - but in that greatness lay one of their many challenges. The Chinese core was overpopulated. The silk farms of Jiangsu were crowded and operating on thin margins, farmers were beginning to run out of land for their children to inherit, and even the inefficient ironworks could barely afford to hire more people even as prices rose to absurd heights. More and more scholars passed the exam every year, only to have to languish in unemployment as they waited for an open job. More and more youths were forced to turn against Confucian tradition by becoming Buddhist monks and itinerant beggers, ending their family lineage in disgrace and depriving the state of tax. More and more foreign ingots entered the Qing, weakening their self-reliance. Without state intervention unemployment would only rise to crippling levels even as farmland would be overworked and the price of commodities would crash
Seeing the danger of this Yongzheng and Qianlong acted decisively. Most of their wise reforms, such as the renewed state monopoly on iron and the introduction of foreign tools, were relatively uncontroversial. The same cannot be said for their most ambitious policy, to sponsor migration from the overcrowded and strained Chinese core to the frontier.
Not the inland frontier where Han settlers were already arriving to farm thin hilltop soil and fight with the tribes who barely recognised the authority of Beijing, but the northern frontier. In 1740 when the Yongzheng Emperor first legalised migration "beyond the pass" that separated Manchuria from the Han, 300,000 Han farmers, craftsmen, and merchants would flock to Mongolia and Manchuria to start new lives. That number would peak at a million by 1748 and remain steady for the next decade. The Orkhon Valley and Liao River would be the centre of a new network of market towns. Even the distant Amur River would turn from frontier to hub, shipping not only food but furs and lumber south. Industry would follow, with smiths and tanners and even a modern cannery bringing Chinese civilisation to the frontier. Great roads funded by the overflowing treasury of Yongzheng would link them all together, and it became possible for a fisherman to haul in a catch in the morning at Yongmingcheng's Haishenwai District, have it salted and smoked in the afternoon, and delivered to the masses of Beijing two days later.
OTL Maps for context
There was of course resistance. Manchu and Mongol princes resented the loss of their traditional privileges as Han settlers and companies extended their grasp. In 1756 the Mongol General Chingunjav would lead an uprising in Outer Mongolia. Enraged by Mongol debt to Han companies and the first wave of settlers he would rally thousands of Khalkha Mongol warriors to attempt to secede. The ageing Yongzheng Emperor, having just returned from the funeral of his beloved friend Amursana following the Dzungar Khan’s tragic accidental death just outside Beijing, was in no mood to tolerate even a small challenge to his authority. Chingunjav’s rebellion was put down by a mixture of Khalkha and Dzungar warriors, selected to show the continued support of the Mongol people for the Great Qing. The rebellion would last less than a year, ending in 1757. While Yongzheng would be restrained towards the people he would be ruthless in breaking Mongolian power. Khalkha generals would find themselves watched by Han and even Dzungar officers. Most Mongolian nobles would find themselves invited to Beijing regularly, and the emperor would increase the frequency of princely visits, greatly draining their treasury while strengtheneing Qing surveillance. The Jebtsundamba Khutuktu, senior Buddhist incarnation of the Outer Mongolians, would be forced to reside along with the Changkya Khutuktu in Uliastai and surrounded by Manchu warriors. Even the Dalai Lama would join the response, reminding the nation that the Yongzheng was not only Emperor Manjushri the earthly manifestation of the Buddha of Wisdom, but also the Chakravarti, the great wheel turner and ruler of the world.
Most of the Mongolians accepted this measured response but some insisted on continued disobedience. When bandits were put down and loyalists raised up with wealth the discontent turned to words. Rumours would spread, rumours that the Qing general Amursana had conspired with Chingunjav and planned to lead a Dzungar rebellion to restore their Khanate. Rumours that Yongzheng had him murdered and tried to kill Chingunjav too. Rumours that were of course deemed treasonous with anyone caught spreading such slander arrested at once.
What is however known to be true is that after the death of Amursana the increasingly modernised and sedentary Dzungars would contribute their farmers and army to the Great Qing, helping greatly to check the other Mongolian tribes and Central Asian khanates.
Amursana the hero, painted here bravely leading Qing loyalists.
Yongzheng would die soon after the Chingunjav rebellion of heart failure. While he had many wives and even loved some of them, his true soulmate was the Great Qing and the mountain of paperwork it generated for him. The administration of 1758 was his creation, the most expansive government since the Mongol Yuan, a bureaucracy expanded tenfold. All the government rushed to obey his commands, admiring of his intellect and terrified of his harsh punishments, while the people chanted his name as he toured the nation and thanked him the prosperity he brought. Already elderly and overworked, the strain of Mongolian rebellions would push him into passing at the age of 79. After an appropriate period of mourning Qianlong ascended to the throne, and vowed to continue his fathers work.
But recognising that his father’s boundless energy and drive for development was not sustainable for the empire, Qianlong offered a number of concessions. Mongol debt would be forgiven, key land set aside for Manchu estates and Mongolian pastures, and most importantly Mongolian and Manchu land was guaranteed to be governed by local peoples for all time. There were just the first of his reforms towards a more open and liberal government inspired by the Great Song and idealised tales of western government, but they were also some of his longest lasting. Even in 2024 the Great Qing still mandates that in Manchu, Mongol, Turkic, and Tibetan regions the majority of administrative roles are filled by registered local ethnicities.
These migration reforms and the ethnic favouritism that counterbalanced them were controversial at the time, but they set the balance of industrial power and social respect that have made the Qing great. Without the Yongzheng Emperor insightful decision to normalise internal migrations, Qing China would have been left vulnerable to the growing power of western empires like Russia, Britain, and America.
This chapter is, as the title says, a prelude to a series of incoming chapters about how the revitalised Qing would face off against thebarbarians foreigners other nations of the world. This timeline will be focused on the 1800s for the foreseeable future before moving into the 1900s and the World War, with occasionally chapters refocusing on the modern day.
Yongmingcheng or "city of eternal light" the Yuan name for a settlement at OTL Vladivostok. The Qing name, Cucumber cliffs (Haishenwai) lacked gravitas so when the settlement expanded the city was restored to its Yuan name with Haishenwai just one of several districts. Thanks for catching that @sarapen
It is true that they inherited a great empire from Kangxi, the largest in the world by population - but in that greatness lay one of their many challenges. The Chinese core was overpopulated. The silk farms of Jiangsu were crowded and operating on thin margins, farmers were beginning to run out of land for their children to inherit, and even the inefficient ironworks could barely afford to hire more people even as prices rose to absurd heights. More and more scholars passed the exam every year, only to have to languish in unemployment as they waited for an open job. More and more youths were forced to turn against Confucian tradition by becoming Buddhist monks and itinerant beggers, ending their family lineage in disgrace and depriving the state of tax. More and more foreign ingots entered the Qing, weakening their self-reliance. Without state intervention unemployment would only rise to crippling levels even as farmland would be overworked and the price of commodities would crash
Seeing the danger of this Yongzheng and Qianlong acted decisively. Most of their wise reforms, such as the renewed state monopoly on iron and the introduction of foreign tools, were relatively uncontroversial. The same cannot be said for their most ambitious policy, to sponsor migration from the overcrowded and strained Chinese core to the frontier.
Not the inland frontier where Han settlers were already arriving to farm thin hilltop soil and fight with the tribes who barely recognised the authority of Beijing, but the northern frontier. In 1740 when the Yongzheng Emperor first legalised migration "beyond the pass" that separated Manchuria from the Han, 300,000 Han farmers, craftsmen, and merchants would flock to Mongolia and Manchuria to start new lives. That number would peak at a million by 1748 and remain steady for the next decade. The Orkhon Valley and Liao River would be the centre of a new network of market towns. Even the distant Amur River would turn from frontier to hub, shipping not only food but furs and lumber south. Industry would follow, with smiths and tanners and even a modern cannery bringing Chinese civilisation to the frontier. Great roads funded by the overflowing treasury of Yongzheng would link them all together, and it became possible for a fisherman to haul in a catch in the morning at Yongmingcheng's Haishenwai District, have it salted and smoked in the afternoon, and delivered to the masses of Beijing two days later.
OTL Maps for context
There was of course resistance. Manchu and Mongol princes resented the loss of their traditional privileges as Han settlers and companies extended their grasp. In 1756 the Mongol General Chingunjav would lead an uprising in Outer Mongolia. Enraged by Mongol debt to Han companies and the first wave of settlers he would rally thousands of Khalkha Mongol warriors to attempt to secede. The ageing Yongzheng Emperor, having just returned from the funeral of his beloved friend Amursana following the Dzungar Khan’s tragic accidental death just outside Beijing, was in no mood to tolerate even a small challenge to his authority. Chingunjav’s rebellion was put down by a mixture of Khalkha and Dzungar warriors, selected to show the continued support of the Mongol people for the Great Qing. The rebellion would last less than a year, ending in 1757. While Yongzheng would be restrained towards the people he would be ruthless in breaking Mongolian power. Khalkha generals would find themselves watched by Han and even Dzungar officers. Most Mongolian nobles would find themselves invited to Beijing regularly, and the emperor would increase the frequency of princely visits, greatly draining their treasury while strengtheneing Qing surveillance. The Jebtsundamba Khutuktu, senior Buddhist incarnation of the Outer Mongolians, would be forced to reside along with the Changkya Khutuktu in Uliastai and surrounded by Manchu warriors. Even the Dalai Lama would join the response, reminding the nation that the Yongzheng was not only Emperor Manjushri the earthly manifestation of the Buddha of Wisdom, but also the Chakravarti, the great wheel turner and ruler of the world.
Most of the Mongolians accepted this measured response but some insisted on continued disobedience. When bandits were put down and loyalists raised up with wealth the discontent turned to words. Rumours would spread, rumours that the Qing general Amursana had conspired with Chingunjav and planned to lead a Dzungar rebellion to restore their Khanate. Rumours that Yongzheng had him murdered and tried to kill Chingunjav too. Rumours that were of course deemed treasonous with anyone caught spreading such slander arrested at once.
What is however known to be true is that after the death of Amursana the increasingly modernised and sedentary Dzungars would contribute their farmers and army to the Great Qing, helping greatly to check the other Mongolian tribes and Central Asian khanates.
Amursana the hero, painted here bravely leading Qing loyalists.
Yongzheng would die soon after the Chingunjav rebellion of heart failure. While he had many wives and even loved some of them, his true soulmate was the Great Qing and the mountain of paperwork it generated for him. The administration of 1758 was his creation, the most expansive government since the Mongol Yuan, a bureaucracy expanded tenfold. All the government rushed to obey his commands, admiring of his intellect and terrified of his harsh punishments, while the people chanted his name as he toured the nation and thanked him the prosperity he brought. Already elderly and overworked, the strain of Mongolian rebellions would push him into passing at the age of 79. After an appropriate period of mourning Qianlong ascended to the throne, and vowed to continue his fathers work.
But recognising that his father’s boundless energy and drive for development was not sustainable for the empire, Qianlong offered a number of concessions. Mongol debt would be forgiven, key land set aside for Manchu estates and Mongolian pastures, and most importantly Mongolian and Manchu land was guaranteed to be governed by local peoples for all time. There were just the first of his reforms towards a more open and liberal government inspired by the Great Song and idealised tales of western government, but they were also some of his longest lasting. Even in 2024 the Great Qing still mandates that in Manchu, Mongol, Turkic, and Tibetan regions the majority of administrative roles are filled by registered local ethnicities.
These migration reforms and the ethnic favouritism that counterbalanced them were controversial at the time, but they set the balance of industrial power and social respect that have made the Qing great. Without the Yongzheng Emperor insightful decision to normalise internal migrations, Qing China would have been left vulnerable to the growing power of western empires like Russia, Britain, and America.
This chapter is, as the title says, a prelude to a series of incoming chapters about how the revitalised Qing would face off against the
Yongmingcheng or "city of eternal light" the Yuan name for a settlement at OTL Vladivostok. The Qing name, Cucumber cliffs (Haishenwai) lacked gravitas so when the settlement expanded the city was restored to its Yuan name with Haishenwai just one of several districts. Thanks for catching that @sarapen
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Foreign Affairs I: Russia and the Great Game
In 1800, the Russian Empire would on paper reach from the Baltics to the Pacific, the largest contiguous empire in the world. Its border with the Great Qing would be the centre of economic activity that made the Tsar one of the richest monarchs in the world.
In 1900 Russia would be constrained between the Yenisei and the Gulf of Finland, and yet the average Russian would enjoy a quality of life unmatched in their history. But to explain Russia’s rapid changes we must look back to their roots in the decisions of the Yongzheng and Qianlong Emperors.
Frontier Settlement:
The Qng-Russian border was now a developed and densely populated region thanks to Yongzheng. With the conquest of the Dzungar Khanate nearly all of Russian Siberia now bordered a populated region of China. Dzungaria itself would be split between Oirat Mongolians in the province of Dzungaria and Uyghur Muslims in the province of Altishahr, and the Silk Road reopened. At first the newly stable border and the trade that flowed was a massive boon to the Russians and while the Qing had little interest in the cold and distant Siberian plateau they were more than happy to take the silver of Russian caravans in exchange for porcelain, woodcrafts, and of course tea.
The Russian invasion of Qajari Iran would change that. Russia would ruthlessly expand their border to the Caucuses mountain, raising concerns across Europe and Asia. Britain, still concerned of how Russian expansion could threaten their vital India colonies, would respond and the two would be plunged into what they cynically called the Great Game. Thinking of the Qing as a distant and benevolent partner they would not realise how their actions would be evaluated in Beijing, unintentionally dragging China with them and only realising too late that a lion and a bear are nothing next to a dragon.
Qajari Iran after Russian invasion
Part of this complacency was their limited knowledge of the court. The understanding in Europe was based more on propaganda and gossip than fact. As far as they knew, in the 1800 Qing’s official view of the world was still firmly rooted in sinocentrism. All land was the property of the emperor, delegated to the bureaucracy of the Great Qing, to their vassals, or held by barbarians. Border changes were of little concern.
Unknown to the Europeans and unofficially, the court was well aware that European powers had significant military and economic power that combined could overwhelm the still reforming Qing. While only a few recognised Russian expansion into Qajari Iran as a threat at first, the onset of European disputes would raise concerns of how it might affect Chinese trade and security. Any war in Asia could disrupt the revived Silk Road or threaten the Qing with a flood of refugees and bandits. Maintaining a buffer was essential to protect the Great Qing.
It wasn’t all doom. The newly enthroned Jiaqing Emperor also saw an opportunity to protect China and enrich his subjects by ending trade restrictions and opening cities all along the coast to the barbarians.
Three directions were understood by Qianlong and his successor Jiaqing as critical. Firstly the south sea, where British, Dutch, Portuguese, Spanish, and French influence was spreading. Secondly Central Asia, long a trade centre but fragmented from the Kazakh war with the Dzungars and Russian influence. And finally the long northern frontier. Of these three the latter two would shape Qing-Russian relations the most.
Central Asia:
Central Asia in 1800, senior Juz marked to show turcosphere
The two independent Kazakh leaders, the Junior and Middle Juz, had been disunited since the death of Ablai Khan - a situation that in 1800 Jiaqing could no longer tolerate. The Kazakhs were the easiest of the Central Asian tribes for China to reach, and the most powerful. They needed to be brought into the Qing tributary system and fortified as a wall against Russia and Britain.
Kazakhs from the third Senior Juz had been taken under Qing rule following the conquest of the Dzungars, and these Senior Juz steppe princes were sent by the emperor to bring gifts to their brothers. 1,000 rifles, 1,000 pieces of porcelain, and 1,000 silk robes, and the promise of more to come in exchange for support.
The independent Kazakh Juz were overwhelmed by this generosity - and threatened. Not desiring to trade one master for another and not persuaded by their unenthusiastic Senior Juz brothers, they kept their distance even as the Qing continued to offer a protectorate. While Qing interest was restrained, it kept Russia from further entrenching itself for three decades, with the Russian tribunal at Petropavlovsk disbanded and Russia unable to project further influence. But the British invasion of Afghanistan in 1832 and the growing power of the Kokand Khanate to their south would finally force the Kazakhs to act. Preferring the Qing, who did not interfere unduly, the two Juz would swear allegiance. Kenesary Qasymūly, grandson of Ablai Khan, would ascend to become Khan of the Kazakhs and would be granted special trading privileges with the Qing Kazakhs and turks.
Kenesary would remain a vassal of the Qing until his death in 1883 at the advanced age of 81. Under his rule the Kazakhs would become a firm ally of the Great Qing, and would use Qing wealth to expand their khanate to include Khiva, Bukhara, Kokand, and the Turkmens. Kenesary would be remembered as the great moderniser of the Turks and a firm ally to all in the Tianxia Network, and his death would see widespread mourning - as well as radical shifts and a new government in the increasingly modernised central asia.
A statue of Kenesary Qasymūly in Samarkand, capital of the Republic of Turan
Siberia and Buryatia:
Buryatia in the time of Genghis, the northern reach of the Mongols
With the subjugation of the Dzunghars came unquestioned dominance over almost all of the Mongolians. The exception were the Buryats, who in 1689 and 1727 had been formally annexed and in 1800 were finding themselves encroached upon by Russian forts and frontiersmen. Siberia was still far from the grip of St Petersburg and the Tsar though, and the Qing had time to assert their claim as heirs of Genghis. Jiaqing supported this for three reasons:
The first was that Lake Baikal, the centre of the Buryat realm and the northern reach of the classic Mongolian civilisation, was a rich land to claim. Baikal is the largest freshwater lake in the world and could easily support a new Qing province.
The second was politics, both international and domestic. Jiaqing supported openness to foreign trade, but he also feared that they would push on outer territories like Taiwan, Tibet, and the previously restless Mongols. Seizing control of Baikal would not only show European empires that the Qing were a growing empire, but also satisfy the Mongol need for military glory and reassure them that the Qing had their interests at heart.
The third was tradition and Jiaqing’s desire for personal glory. The Sinosphere had many definitions such as culture and philosophy, but the most lasting geographic definition was the concept of the Four Sea. Three of the four had been bought under Qing direct rule;
Unlike with the Kazakhs there were no strong rulers for the Qing to support. The Buryats were divided in two by Russian influence. Direct involvement would be necessary.
The Qing declaration in 1805 that they formally repudiated Russian treaties annexing Buryatia sent shockwaves throughout Europe. They claimed that as the rulers of all China, both inner and outer, they and they alone could speak for the Mongolians, and that any treaty which did not include them was invalid. The Qing army were the worlds largest, and while some border troops still languished, the army as a whole was also considered the worlds second finest behind the French.
Each of the Eight Banners, the infantry core of the Qing Army before Xianfeng’s reign, consisted of 3 Kusai - one Han, one Mongol, and one Manchu section. Each Kusai had five battalions of 1,500 men, for a total of 7,500 soldiers in each Kusai and 180,000 soldiers in total. Qianlong’s industrial reforms had ensured that every Kusai was fully equipped with modern firearms, cannons, and an average of 4 horses per soldier. The Dzungar warriors who submitted found themselves recruited to fill the ranks of understrength Kusai, not only ensuring that on-paper strength matched reality but easing the integration of the Dzungars into the empire. Altishahr and Tibet were organised separately at this point in time as the Altishahr and Tibetan Regiments but would later be fully integrated and modernised.
Banners of the Great Qing, still in symbolic use in 2024
Despite this however the Qing refrained from entering the war directly. They had been listening to European traders, and they felt they could afford to wait a year. And in 1806 they would be proven right. The War of the Fourth Coalition had begun as Russia watched Napoleon march towards their heartland across Central Europe. Leaping on the opportunity, the Qing again vocally rejected the notion of Russian suzerainty in Buryat and demanded an Russian withdrawal before the year was out.
Facing a war on two fronts, the Russians weighed which was more important: their urban and economic centre in the west, or some forts and fur traders in the east. Deciding to cut their losses they sold their claim over Buryat to the Qing in exchange for the modern equivalent of 300 million Yuan. In 1807 Mongolian Kusai would enter Buryat, gently evicting the Cossack Garrison and tearing down the Russian flag. The Buryats would be organised into a new province, ruled separately from Uliastai and the “Outer Mongolians”.
The loss of Buryatia would cripple Russian expansion into the Siberian Plateau, and in 1822, 1825, and finally 1833 in conjunction with the Kazakhs, the Qing would purchase or intimidate the Russians out of all claims east of the Yenisei. This would not be the end of their retreat from the world, as a temporarily resurgent Iran would later retake what was stolen in the northern Caucasus, Sweden would sponsor an independent Finland in 1854, and the Austrian-led German Empire would force the Russia into a merely overlord role in 1870 as part of the war of German Unification. In 1869 Russia’s borders would change for the last time, with Karelia taken by Sweden to join their Finnish Protectorate.
This cycle of defeat, starting with the Qing, would break the power of the Tsars, who would find themselves forced to withdraw entirely from the Baltic states and viciously overthrown by a coalition of Russian reformers, Ukrainian nationalists, and ideologues ranging from socialists to conservative militarists. This shaky coalition was immediately on the verge of collapse of course, as the Duma descended into fistfights and paramilitaries stared each other down. Ironically the World War, which broke so many empires, would prove the still unnamed new federation's saving grace, as the country united to guard their border and the economy focused on rebuilding. Ironically much of this development would be financed by the Qing, desperate to delay the oncoming Great Depression with expansion into new and neutral markets. Sitting as the border between Asia and Europe, the Russians had the chance to leverage their geography into a position in the 20th century as one the leading secondary powers of Europe.
This is the first of a sequence of chapters about the politics of the 1800s so if there's anything you like or dislike please let me know. This is my first timeline and I'm admittedly overwhelmed by expanding beyond my comfort zone of China so areas for improvement are welcome. I start a new job in two weeks so I'm trying to focus on these short and digestable chapters for now.
I tried to give as many specific numbers as possible. 300 million yuan ITTL is 300 million USD OTL for now (Lazy I know)
Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus are co-equal members of the Union. I know a lot of people wanted full independence for Ukraine and Belarus, and they probably would have broken away if the Tsar survived to enter the World War, but instead they formed a 'more perfect union'. Seemed happier this way
In 1900 Russia would be constrained between the Yenisei and the Gulf of Finland, and yet the average Russian would enjoy a quality of life unmatched in their history. But to explain Russia’s rapid changes we must look back to their roots in the decisions of the Yongzheng and Qianlong Emperors.
Frontier Settlement:
The Qng-Russian border was now a developed and densely populated region thanks to Yongzheng. With the conquest of the Dzungar Khanate nearly all of Russian Siberia now bordered a populated region of China. Dzungaria itself would be split between Oirat Mongolians in the province of Dzungaria and Uyghur Muslims in the province of Altishahr, and the Silk Road reopened. At first the newly stable border and the trade that flowed was a massive boon to the Russians and while the Qing had little interest in the cold and distant Siberian plateau they were more than happy to take the silver of Russian caravans in exchange for porcelain, woodcrafts, and of course tea.
The Russian invasion of Qajari Iran would change that. Russia would ruthlessly expand their border to the Caucuses mountain, raising concerns across Europe and Asia. Britain, still concerned of how Russian expansion could threaten their vital India colonies, would respond and the two would be plunged into what they cynically called the Great Game. Thinking of the Qing as a distant and benevolent partner they would not realise how their actions would be evaluated in Beijing, unintentionally dragging China with them and only realising too late that a lion and a bear are nothing next to a dragon.
Qajari Iran after Russian invasion
Part of this complacency was their limited knowledge of the court. The understanding in Europe was based more on propaganda and gossip than fact. As far as they knew, in the 1800 Qing’s official view of the world was still firmly rooted in sinocentrism. All land was the property of the emperor, delegated to the bureaucracy of the Great Qing, to their vassals, or held by barbarians. Border changes were of little concern.
Unknown to the Europeans and unofficially, the court was well aware that European powers had significant military and economic power that combined could overwhelm the still reforming Qing. While only a few recognised Russian expansion into Qajari Iran as a threat at first, the onset of European disputes would raise concerns of how it might affect Chinese trade and security. Any war in Asia could disrupt the revived Silk Road or threaten the Qing with a flood of refugees and bandits. Maintaining a buffer was essential to protect the Great Qing.
It wasn’t all doom. The newly enthroned Jiaqing Emperor also saw an opportunity to protect China and enrich his subjects by ending trade restrictions and opening cities all along the coast to the barbarians.
Three directions were understood by Qianlong and his successor Jiaqing as critical. Firstly the south sea, where British, Dutch, Portuguese, Spanish, and French influence was spreading. Secondly Central Asia, long a trade centre but fragmented from the Kazakh war with the Dzungars and Russian influence. And finally the long northern frontier. Of these three the latter two would shape Qing-Russian relations the most.
Central Asia:
Central Asia in 1800, senior Juz marked to show turcosphere
The two independent Kazakh leaders, the Junior and Middle Juz, had been disunited since the death of Ablai Khan - a situation that in 1800 Jiaqing could no longer tolerate. The Kazakhs were the easiest of the Central Asian tribes for China to reach, and the most powerful. They needed to be brought into the Qing tributary system and fortified as a wall against Russia and Britain.
Kazakhs from the third Senior Juz had been taken under Qing rule following the conquest of the Dzungars, and these Senior Juz steppe princes were sent by the emperor to bring gifts to their brothers. 1,000 rifles, 1,000 pieces of porcelain, and 1,000 silk robes, and the promise of more to come in exchange for support.
The independent Kazakh Juz were overwhelmed by this generosity - and threatened. Not desiring to trade one master for another and not persuaded by their unenthusiastic Senior Juz brothers, they kept their distance even as the Qing continued to offer a protectorate. While Qing interest was restrained, it kept Russia from further entrenching itself for three decades, with the Russian tribunal at Petropavlovsk disbanded and Russia unable to project further influence. But the British invasion of Afghanistan in 1832 and the growing power of the Kokand Khanate to their south would finally force the Kazakhs to act. Preferring the Qing, who did not interfere unduly, the two Juz would swear allegiance. Kenesary Qasymūly, grandson of Ablai Khan, would ascend to become Khan of the Kazakhs and would be granted special trading privileges with the Qing Kazakhs and turks.
Kenesary would remain a vassal of the Qing until his death in 1883 at the advanced age of 81. Under his rule the Kazakhs would become a firm ally of the Great Qing, and would use Qing wealth to expand their khanate to include Khiva, Bukhara, Kokand, and the Turkmens. Kenesary would be remembered as the great moderniser of the Turks and a firm ally to all in the Tianxia Network, and his death would see widespread mourning - as well as radical shifts and a new government in the increasingly modernised central asia.
A statue of Kenesary Qasymūly in Samarkand, capital of the Republic of Turan
Siberia and Buryatia:
Buryatia in the time of Genghis, the northern reach of the Mongols
With the subjugation of the Dzunghars came unquestioned dominance over almost all of the Mongolians. The exception were the Buryats, who in 1689 and 1727 had been formally annexed and in 1800 were finding themselves encroached upon by Russian forts and frontiersmen. Siberia was still far from the grip of St Petersburg and the Tsar though, and the Qing had time to assert their claim as heirs of Genghis. Jiaqing supported this for three reasons:
The first was that Lake Baikal, the centre of the Buryat realm and the northern reach of the classic Mongolian civilisation, was a rich land to claim. Baikal is the largest freshwater lake in the world and could easily support a new Qing province.
The second was politics, both international and domestic. Jiaqing supported openness to foreign trade, but he also feared that they would push on outer territories like Taiwan, Tibet, and the previously restless Mongols. Seizing control of Baikal would not only show European empires that the Qing were a growing empire, but also satisfy the Mongol need for military glory and reassure them that the Qing had their interests at heart.
The third was tradition and Jiaqing’s desire for personal glory. The Sinosphere had many definitions such as culture and philosophy, but the most lasting geographic definition was the concept of the Four Sea. Three of the four had been bought under Qing direct rule;
- The East China Sea/Eastern Sea
- The South China Sea/Southern Sea
- Lake Qinghai/Western Sea
Unlike with the Kazakhs there were no strong rulers for the Qing to support. The Buryats were divided in two by Russian influence. Direct involvement would be necessary.
The Qing declaration in 1805 that they formally repudiated Russian treaties annexing Buryatia sent shockwaves throughout Europe. They claimed that as the rulers of all China, both inner and outer, they and they alone could speak for the Mongolians, and that any treaty which did not include them was invalid. The Qing army were the worlds largest, and while some border troops still languished, the army as a whole was also considered the worlds second finest behind the French.
Each of the Eight Banners, the infantry core of the Qing Army before Xianfeng’s reign, consisted of 3 Kusai - one Han, one Mongol, and one Manchu section. Each Kusai had five battalions of 1,500 men, for a total of 7,500 soldiers in each Kusai and 180,000 soldiers in total. Qianlong’s industrial reforms had ensured that every Kusai was fully equipped with modern firearms, cannons, and an average of 4 horses per soldier. The Dzungar warriors who submitted found themselves recruited to fill the ranks of understrength Kusai, not only ensuring that on-paper strength matched reality but easing the integration of the Dzungars into the empire. Altishahr and Tibet were organised separately at this point in time as the Altishahr and Tibetan Regiments but would later be fully integrated and modernised.
Banners of the Great Qing, still in symbolic use in 2024
Despite this however the Qing refrained from entering the war directly. They had been listening to European traders, and they felt they could afford to wait a year. And in 1806 they would be proven right. The War of the Fourth Coalition had begun as Russia watched Napoleon march towards their heartland across Central Europe. Leaping on the opportunity, the Qing again vocally rejected the notion of Russian suzerainty in Buryat and demanded an Russian withdrawal before the year was out.
Facing a war on two fronts, the Russians weighed which was more important: their urban and economic centre in the west, or some forts and fur traders in the east. Deciding to cut their losses they sold their claim over Buryat to the Qing in exchange for the modern equivalent of 300 million Yuan. In 1807 Mongolian Kusai would enter Buryat, gently evicting the Cossack Garrison and tearing down the Russian flag. The Buryats would be organised into a new province, ruled separately from Uliastai and the “Outer Mongolians”.
The loss of Buryatia would cripple Russian expansion into the Siberian Plateau, and in 1822, 1825, and finally 1833 in conjunction with the Kazakhs, the Qing would purchase or intimidate the Russians out of all claims east of the Yenisei. This would not be the end of their retreat from the world, as a temporarily resurgent Iran would later retake what was stolen in the northern Caucasus, Sweden would sponsor an independent Finland in 1854, and the Austrian-led German Empire would force the Russia into a merely overlord role in 1870 as part of the war of German Unification. In 1869 Russia’s borders would change for the last time, with Karelia taken by Sweden to join their Finnish Protectorate.
This cycle of defeat, starting with the Qing, would break the power of the Tsars, who would find themselves forced to withdraw entirely from the Baltic states and viciously overthrown by a coalition of Russian reformers, Ukrainian nationalists, and ideologues ranging from socialists to conservative militarists. This shaky coalition was immediately on the verge of collapse of course, as the Duma descended into fistfights and paramilitaries stared each other down. Ironically the World War, which broke so many empires, would prove the still unnamed new federation's saving grace, as the country united to guard their border and the economy focused on rebuilding. Ironically much of this development would be financed by the Qing, desperate to delay the oncoming Great Depression with expansion into new and neutral markets. Sitting as the border between Asia and Europe, the Russians had the chance to leverage their geography into a position in the 20th century as one the leading secondary powers of Europe.
This is the first of a sequence of chapters about the politics of the 1800s so if there's anything you like or dislike please let me know. This is my first timeline and I'm admittedly overwhelmed by expanding beyond my comfort zone of China so areas for improvement are welcome. I start a new job in two weeks so I'm trying to focus on these short and digestable chapters for now.
I tried to give as many specific numbers as possible. 300 million yuan ITTL is 300 million USD OTL for now (Lazy I know)
Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus are co-equal members of the Union. I know a lot of people wanted full independence for Ukraine and Belarus, and they probably would have broken away if the Tsar survived to enter the World War, but instead they formed a 'more perfect union'. Seemed happier this way
The modern Union of Vostoslav Republics, consisting of Belarus, Ukraine, and a Russia split between their Asian and European halves, is one of the greatest success stories of postwar Europe. One of the few liberal democratic republics, they stand opposed to both the modern authoritarianism of the Ultramodernists and the "renovated traditionalism" of the Qing-led Tianxia Network. In 2024 relations with the Qing are warm verging on friendly, but their closest ally is the United States of America, leader of the revisionist anti-Qing bloc. The future is bright for Russia, whose geographic importance as the "toll taker of Europe and Asia" and increasing research capability could see them rise into the ranks of the top 20 world economies once more.
Can we assume that this modernized Qing Empire would be able to fully enforce the ban on importing opium which I believe was put in place in 1729? If so, that would have a lot of butterflies for the British East India company in India and their ability to pay for their massive standing army. The conquest of the larger Indian polities (Marathas and Sikhs) would be less likely.
For TTL’s Philippines, maybe they could be quite big into “rediscovering our pre-Hispanic past” and all that due to Chinese influence making emphasizing Asian roots and all that “hip” and “cool”?
Ummmm...I lied! No criticism! Hundred Flowers Campaign time! Shoot the traitor!
Thanks for catching that haha it was force of habit. It's called Yongmingcheng after the Yuan dynasty city there, of which Haishenwai (the Qing name) is now a district. It's a key hub for Chinese arctic activities and has a world leading polar research facility at the otherwise minor university there. WIll be removed and changed
Indeed and indeed. India is still a work in progress (hence the lack of mentions) but while the British were a significant power modern India has a lot more political continuity with pre-British states and the Raj was a lot looser. Part of the general asianness of the timeline
While I don't know enough about the Philippines to write anything, I think that sounds about right. Both north and south philippines are in touch with their traditions with some Chinese influence and much less western influences. They're still Catholic though which makes them an outlier in the Qing bloc.
A limited fashion chapter for the Qing is also on its way which may give some insight
Nice. I am doing something similar in my India-focused TL (link in signature) where the Brits control the Bengal coast due to their overwhelming naval power but not the interior. Therefore the Opium Wars are butterflied away since they do not have 350,000 soldiers at a convenient nearby location to use for invading China.
Speaking of the Philippines, how are the Moro Sultanates doing as they were only really subdued by the Americans IOTL?