2018 Presidential Election
- Thread starter Marky Bunny
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Jacobs defends place in Duke "kitchen cabinet"
Wednesday, February 23rd, 2021
Conservative radio host Dr. Jenna Jacobs defended her role in former senator Alan Duke's "kitchen cabinet" on her show's Wednesday program. On her long-running show The Dr. Jenna Program on SiriusXM, Jacobs answered criticism from listeners over her public appearances with Duke, the first national politician she has openly affiliated with in her media career.
"With [former] Senator Duke, we as Christians have a unique opportunity to return this country to one that believes in Biblical values," Jacobs said. "I have spoken and prayed often with him, and am convinced that he would not only to appoint wise and temperate judges who believe in Judeo-Christian values, but also craft policy and legislation through a Biblical lens."
Celeste announces plan to seek Green presidential nomination
Thursday, February 24th, 2022
Congressman Randy Celeste (G-CA), the only current member of Congress to belong to a third party, announced on Thursday that he would seek the Green Party presidential nomination at the party's July convention. Celeste, who switched from the Democratic Party in March 2021, said that he would seek the party's nomination to "fight for a true working-class, progressive agenda unbeholden to Wall Street."
Celeste will challenge activist Susan Buckner, the party's 2018 nominee for vice president, at the convention. Both Buckner and Celeste have been coordinating with Green Party members and activists to secure ballot access in all 50 states and the District of Columbia; currently, the party has secured access for their presidential nominee in 45 states and the District, with efforts still underway in Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, Nebraska and Wyoming.
A spokesman for Celeste confirmed that the congressman would "commit entirely to a presidential run" and not seek re-election to Congress. Celeste currently represents California's 30th district, but would have been redistricted to the 32nd district if he had chosen to run for re-election. Both seats are overwhelmingly Democratic.
Winter Olympics closing ceremony passes torch to US
Friday, February 25th, 2022
The 2022 Winter Olympics came to an end on Friday, with the host nation of Ukraine passing the torch on to the United States, as the host nation of the 2026 Winter Games. The games, which took place amid diplomatic tension between Ukraine and its neighbor Russia, saw a continued decline in American television viewership despite strong performances by athletes from around the world. American broadcasters are hopeful that the 2026 games, to be held in Salt Lake City, will see a reversal of the trends with American audiences not having to watch tape delayed events.
Norway emerged as the leader in the medal count, winning 16 gold medals and a total of 37 overall. The United States game in fourth with eight gold medals (25 overall). Ukraine, despite hopes by some domestically that their status as host nation would inspire a stronger performance in the games, came away with just one medal, with figure skater Oleksandr Abramenko winning a silver medal in the men's aerials after taking the gold in Montreal four years ago.
Iraq removes Saddam handwriting from flag
Saturday, February 26th, 2022
The government of Iraq announced the redesign of the national flag on Saturday, including the removal of late president Saddam Hussein's handwriting from the national emblem. The redesigned flag changes the font used to display the takbir ("Allah/God is the greatest" in Arabic) from one that has been widely assumed to have been Hussein's handwriting to a stylized Kufic script, commonly regarded as the favorite for Quranic transcription and use in architecture and design.
President Rashim Khalid al-Faruq, Hussein's son-in-law who seized power upon the latter's death, issued a proclamation announcing the change, with government sources saying the change was "purely to increase the visibility of the takbir." Hussein had altered the nation's flag to include the takbir in 1991 in an effort international observers say was to bolster the regime's support from religious Islamic leaders during its occupation of Kuwait before the Persian Gulf War.
Savino sworn in as Italian prime minister
Monday, February 21st, 2022
Nicola Savino was inaugurated as Italy's prime minister on Monday, after the announcement that the ruling center-left coalition had agreed upon the formation of a new government. Savino replaced Manuele Boschetti, who retired one day shy of his eighth anniversary of taking office in 2014, the longest continuous stretch in power of any Italian head of government since Benito Mussolini. Savino's government includes two more ministers from the center-left Democratic Party's coalition partners than Boschetti's final cabinet and easily won a confidence motion in the nation's Chamber of Deputies on Friday.
Seaborn campaign brings in veteran Democratic operative as media/communications head
Sunday, February 20th, 2022
The Seaborn campaign announced Sunday that it had hired Democratic operative and former television producer Annabeth Schott to head the campaign's joint media and communications department. Campaign head Marc Chorley said that they were "excited to have Annabeth take on this challenging role" as part of the president's re-election campaign. Chorley said that the campaign was assembling "deputy directors" to oversee the traditional media/communications divide, but that current plans are that both will report to Schott once permanent appointments are made.
Schott served as the producer on the Taylor Reid Show and Money Talks. Her political resume includes serving as a deputy press secretary in the Bartlet White House, press secretary to then-First Lady Helen Santos, and stints on Santos' unsuccessful 2016 campaign for Texas governor and Jimmy Fitzsimmons' 2014 presidential campaign.
Sunday February 27th, 2022
Overseas Saturday: Irving wins five of six contests, Hawaii a "virtual dead heat"
Senator Jasper Irving has won five of the six contests on "Overseas Saturday" winning in American Samoa, Guam, Northern Marianian Islands, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands for a total of 59 delegates.
The contest in Hawaii for it's nineteen delegates has still not been called by the networks, with 99% of the vote counted, the difference between Irving and his fellow Senator Ruth Norton-Stewart is just double digits, with both polling around 41.50% each, with former Senator Alan Duke way adrift, with around 17% of the vote.
It was not a good night for the former Oklahoma Senator with him only gaining a combined total of 49 votes in America Samoa (3 votes), Guam (2 votes), and US Virgin Islands (44 votes). Even without the Hawaii result, it was a good night for Irving who has for certain cut Duke's lead in delegates to at least 92 delegates, and maybe even just 73 delegates if Hawaii was to come through for him.
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If my math is right, three Senate lists would mean we're one-half of the way done. So how about the list of senators from the three states most recently admitted to the Union?
1979-2006: Franklin "Steve" Gaines (Republican)
Elections: 1978, 1984, 1990, 1996, 2002
2006-2027: Robert Cantina (Republican)
Elections: 2008, 2014, 2020
Class 3
1969-2011: Sean Bruce (Democratic)
Elections: 1968, 1974, 1980, 1986, 1992, 1998, 2004
2011-2023: Sorah Wheeler (Republican)
Elections: 2010, 2016
1983-1989: Hugh Bollinger (Republican)
Elections: 1982
1989-1995: Samuel Toselli (Democratic)
Elections: 1988
1995-2001: Pat Barrett (Republican)
Elections: 1994
2001-2013: Bill Marienhoff (Democratic)
Elections: 2000, 2006
2013-2019: Louise MacDonald (Republican)
Elections: 2012
2019-2025: Tony McMichael (Democratic)
Elections: 2018
Class 3
1969-1987: Barry Goldwater (Republican)
Elections: 1968, 1974, 1980
1987-2017: Matt Hunt (Republican)
Elections: 1986, 1992, 1998, 2004, 2010
2017-2023: Antonio Rodrigues (Democratic)
Elections: 2016
United States Senators from Hawaii
Class 1
1977-1990: Spark Matsunaga (Democratic)†
Elections: 1976, 1982, 1988
1990: Bill Kahoa (Democratic)
1990-1995: Leia Kekuku (Republican)
Elections: 1990 (special)
1995-2025: Arthur Breech (Democratic)
Elections: 1994, 2000, 2006, 2012, 2018
Class 3
1963-1993: Max Imanaga (Democratic)
Elections: 1962, 1968, 1974, 1980, 1986
1993-2011: Joanne White (Democratic)
Elections: 1992, 1998, 2004
2011-2023: David Kuhio (Democratic)
Elections: 2010, 2016
--------------------------------------------------------------
Lists of United States Senators (1985-present)
AL • AK • AZ • AR • CA • CO • CT • DE • FL • GA • HI • ID • IL • IN • IA • KS • KY • LA • ME • MD • MA • MI • MN • MS • MO • MT • NE • NV • NH • NJ • NM • NY • NC • ND • OH • OK • OR • PA • RI • SC • SD • TN • TX • UT • VT • VA • WA • WV • WI • WY
--------------------------------------------------------------
United States Senators from Alaska
Class 2Lists of United States Senators (1985-present)
AL • AK • AZ • AR • CA • CO • CT • DE • FL • GA • HI • ID • IL • IN • IA • KS • KY • LA • ME • MD • MA • MI • MN • MS • MO • MT • NE • NV • NH • NJ • NM • NY • NC • ND • OH • OK • OR • PA • RI • SC • SD • TN • TX • UT • VT • VA • WA • WV • WI • WY
--------------------------------------------------------------
United States Senators from Alaska
1979-2006: Franklin "Steve" Gaines (Republican)
Elections: 1978, 1984, 1990, 1996, 2002
2006-2027: Robert Cantina (Republican)
Elections: 2008, 2014, 2020
Class 3
1969-2011: Sean Bruce (Democratic)
Elections: 1968, 1974, 1980, 1986, 1992, 1998, 2004
2011-2023: Sorah Wheeler (Republican)
Elections: 2010, 2016
Alaska has the unique situation of having had one senator serve as Majority Whip and the other as Minority Whip during the same Congress. Sadly, Steve Gaines deprived us of the best explanation of the Internet uttered by a federal legislator. Gaines' start date was originally in 1985, but I gave him another term because I don't think he would have been appointed as Majority Whip as a freshman. Gaines resigned just after the 2006 election rather than wait until his term ended, and Cantina was appointed as his replacement.
Bruce's long tenure means that ITTL Alaska, Democrats held their class 3 seat for the first 50 years of statehood. Pretty impressive considering in the past 50 years IOTL , they have only won two senate races (Gravel's re-election in 1974 & Mark Begich narrowly defeating Ted Stevens week after Stevens was convicted of seven felonies).
Bruce's long tenure means that ITTL Alaska, Democrats held their class 3 seat for the first 50 years of statehood. Pretty impressive considering in the past 50 years IOTL , they have only won two senate races (Gravel's re-election in 1974 & Mark Begich narrowly defeating Ted Stevens week after Stevens was convicted of seven felonies).
United States Senators from Arizona
Class 11983-1989: Hugh Bollinger (Republican)
Elections: 1982
1989-1995: Samuel Toselli (Democratic)
Elections: 1988
1995-2001: Pat Barrett (Republican)
Elections: 1994
2001-2013: Bill Marienhoff (Democratic)
Elections: 2000, 2006
2013-2019: Louise MacDonald (Republican)
Elections: 2012
2019-2025: Tony McMichael (Democratic)
Elections: 2018
Class 3
1969-1987: Barry Goldwater (Republican)
Elections: 1968, 1974, 1980
1987-2017: Matt Hunt (Republican)
Elections: 1986, 1992, 1998, 2004, 2010
2017-2023: Antonio Rodrigues (Democratic)
Elections: 2016
Arizona's class 1 seat is pretty chaotic ITTL. Because Dennis DeConcini lost his 1982 re-election campaign ITTL (IOTL he won and served until 1995), the seat has switched hands every six years with only one exception. Which was probably helped by the fact that that reelection cycle coincided with the Democrats nominating the first Hispanic major-party presidential candidate, which is a pretty big deal in a state where Hispanic people made up one-quarter of the population in 2000.
In contrast, the class 3 seat has been remarkably stable. It's had three senators in the past 63 years, and Democrats managed to flip it by fewer than 300 votes in 2016.
In contrast, the class 3 seat has been remarkably stable. It's had three senators in the past 63 years, and Democrats managed to flip it by fewer than 300 votes in 2016.
United States Senators from Hawaii
1977-1990: Spark Matsunaga (Democratic)†
Elections: 1976, 1982, 1988
1990: Bill Kahoa (Democratic)
1990-1995: Leia Kekuku (Republican)
Elections: 1990 (special)
1995-2025: Arthur Breech (Democratic)
Elections: 1994, 2000, 2006, 2012, 2018
Class 3
1963-1993: Max Imanaga (Democratic)
Elections: 1962, 1968, 1974, 1980, 1986
1993-2011: Joanne White (Democratic)
Elections: 1992, 1998, 2004
2011-2023: David Kuhio (Democratic)
Elections: 2010, 2016
Kekuku was established as having been a senator at some point prior to trying to return to office in 2010/2012, and I'm pleased that we were able to fit her in nicely as Breech's predecessor. Matsunaga's death was IOTL and Hawaii allows gubernatorial appointments to fill Senate vacancies, but the governor has to pick one of three names offered by the party of the person who last held the seat. My imagining is that Kahoa was a candidate chosen more as a reward for his loyalty to the party than fitness for the Senate, and that allowed Kekuku to peel off enough disgruntled voters to shock everyone and win the seat. But, of course, Breech would unseat her when the seat came up again in 1994. Breech, FWIW, was the Democratic leader in the Senate from 2011 to 2017 and was Senate Majority Leader for the last two years of that time.
Hawaii's class 3 seat is notable as it's been held by a Democrat ever since it was created in 1959. I'm not 100% certain, but I'm pretty sure this is the only Senate seat that has only been held by members of one party.
Hawaii's class 3 seat is notable as it's been held by a Democrat ever since it was created in 1959. I'm not 100% certain, but I'm pretty sure this is the only Senate seat that has only been held by members of one party.
Monday February 28th, 2022
Hawaii GOP party confirms Norton-Stewart wins Caucus by just twenty four votes
In the past few minutes, the Republican party in Hawaii has confirmed that Ohio Senator Ruth Norton-Stewart has won the states nineteen delegates over fellow Senator Jasper Irving by a mere twenty four votes.
It is understood that Senator Irving will not be asking for a recount, and has conceded the race. For the fourth time, Senator Irving has been denied victory narrowly by Norton-Stewart, after her earlier narrow wins in New Jersey, Maine and Maryland. a total of 127 delegates.
Full "Overseas Saturday" Results
American Samoa-9 Dels
Candidate | Popular Vote | % Vote | Delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jasper Irving | 369 | 88.28% | 9 |
| Ruth Norton-Stewart | 56 | 11.21% | |
| Alan Duke | 3 | 0.51% | |
| Total Vote: 418 | Margin: 323 | Margin: 77.27% |
Candidate | Popular Vote | % Vote | Delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jasper Irving | 402 | 89.12% | 9 |
| Ruth Norton-Stewart | 47 | 10.38% | |
| Alan Duke | 2 | 0.50% | |
| Total Vote: 451 | Margin: 355 | Margin: 78.71% |
Candidate | Popular Vote | % Vote | Delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ruth Norton-Stewart | 7,590 | 41.53% | 19 |
| Jasper Irving | 7,566 | 41.40% | |
| Alan Duke | 3,120 | 17.07% | |
| Total Vote: 18,276 | Margin: 24 | Margin: 0.13% |
Candidate | Popular Vote | % Vote | Delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jasper Irving | 349 | 69.63% | 9 |
| Alan Duke | 106 | 21.19% | |
| Ruth Norton-Stewart | 46 | 9.18% | |
| Total Vote: 501 | Margin: 243 | Margin: 48.50% |
Candidate | Popular Vote | % Vote | Delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jasper Irving | 26,905 | 62.31% | 23 |
| Alan Duke | 8,360 | 19.36% | |
| Ruth Norton-Stewart | 7,911 | 18.32% | |
| Total Vote: 43,176 | Margin: 18,545 | Margin: 42.95% |
Candidate | Popular Vote | % Vote | Delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jasper Irving | 279 | 70.54% | 9 |
| Ruth Norton-Stewart | 73 | 18.43% | |
| Alan Duke | 44 | 11.03% | |
| Total Vote: 396 | Margin: 206 | Margin: 52.02% |
Candidate | Popular Vote | % Vote | Delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jasper Irving | 35,870 | 56.74% | 59 |
| Ruth Norton-Stewart | 15,713 | 24.86% | 19 |
| Alan Duke | 11,635 | 18.40% | 0 |
| Total Vote: 63,218 | Margin: 20,157 | Margin: 31.88% |
GOP Primary race as it stands
Fmr. Senator Alan Duke (R-OK): 588 Delegates, 4,008,988 votes, 31.13% Popular Vote
Senator Jasper Irving (R-IL): 496 Delegates, 4,411,664 votes, 34.25% Popular Vote
Senator Ruth Norton-Stewart (R-OH): 295 Delegates, 3,942,329 votes, 30.61% Popular Vote
Others: 781,858 votes, 5.95% Popular Vote
1,245 delegates are required for the Republican Presidential nomination
Glad it's not like 2016 where Trump routed every other candidate. Duke has a small lead in Delegates. Irving actually has the most votes.
I'm sure this question has been asked before. So I apologize. Is Ruth Norton-Stewart running for reelection to the Senate simultaneously, like Robinson and Thorn did in 2018 and like Fitzsimmons did in 2014?
Yes, Norton-Stewart is also running for re-election to the Senate alongside her presidential campaign.
In the event that she becomes the nominee, would she be able to run for re-election and the presidency at the same time?
Norton-Stewart edges Duke in CPAC straw poll
Monday, February 28th, 2022
Senator Ruth Norton-Stewart (OH) remained the choice of conservative activists at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), with the results of a straw poll showing the event attendees narrowly favoring her as the Republican nominee for president 40 percent to 39 percent for former senator Alan Duke (OK). Senator Jasper Irving (IL) came in third with 14 percent supporting his bid, with nearly ten percent of attendees naming other candidates who either declined to run for the party's nomination or who have since dropped out.
Norton-Stewart won last year's straw poll with around 73 percent of the total vote (Duke, her closest competitor, got only 11 percent in 2021), one of the largest margins in conference history. Observers and pundits have attributed the large shift to Duke overtaking Norton-Stewart as the favored candidate of evangelical Christians, and the increasingly long odds the Ohio senator faces of winning enough delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot.
CPAC attendees offered a more muddled response on the question of who they wish to see as the party's vice-presidential nominee. Four candidates tied at 11 percent apiece—Irving, senator Carlin Cassidy (PA), governor Scott Phillips (AZ) and Republican National Committee chair James Ritchie (FL). Vice President Jack Hunter (MN) tied with senator Laura Shallick (MO) with ten percent despite his repeated statements that he would not accept a draft for either the presidency or vice-presidency.
Wednesday, March 2nd 2022
Exclusive NBS Polling showing Duke on course for the Republican Presidential nomination
An exclusive NBS/Yougov poll for the next seventeen contests in the Republican Presidential primary race, show that former Oklahoma Senator Alan Duke is on course to the Republican's nominee to take on President Seaborn in November.
Ahead of "Mini-Tuesday" in six days time, the NBS polling shows Duke winning six states (Alaska, Idaho, Indiana, Kentucky, North Carolina and Texas) which would be a total of 395 delegates, Illinois Senator Jasper Irving is expected to carry four states, his home state, along with Connecticut, Rhode Island & Vermont for a total of 127 delegates. Ohio Senator Ruth Norton-Stewart is only likely to carry her own state and it's 79 delegates.
The Irving campaign had announced last night it was not focusing on Ohio and Texas, but ways already looking ahead to "Small Tuesday" on March 15th. Indeed our polling has Irving ahead by nine points in Michigan from Norton-Stewart, with Duke also just behind, and also in Wisconsin where he has a fourteen point lead over Duke. Duke has a thirty five point lead in Mississippi over Norton-Stewart, leaving Florida the first real state of this primary campaign season in which is head to head case between Duke and Irving. Duke has a seven point lead (42-35) with Norton-Stewart on 20 percent, with the Irving campaign hoping that they can peel away enough support from her to overtake Duke and win the states 123 delegates.
If the results stay as our polls predict then after March 15th, Irving will not be able to the win nomination outright, and it would leave Duke just 101 delegates short of the required 1,245 delegates for the nomination, he is likely then to carry both Georgia and Pennsylvania on "April Tuesday" the 19th, which a have total of 143 delegates on offer between them (Georgia 75 & Pennsylvania 68). That would be enough to take Duke over the top with 1,287 delegates, 42 above what he would need.
As a Vinick Republican, if this happens, let's hope for a credible third party candidate. If there is no credible third party candidate, then I'd grudgingly vote for Seaborn and still vote for a Republican Congress as a check on Seaborn during his second term.
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It is Duke 42, Irving 32, RNS 22 Undecided/others: 4, so a ten point lead.
I will be posting the full poll by state tommorrow.