I knew it, I just focus more on the party factions. The hard thing to remember is how man PR reps each regional block has.
2018 Presidential Election
- Thread starter Marky Bunny
- Start date
nbs.com
Sunday, February 24th 2019
Analysis: Special Election Forecasts
With the first primary elections for the five vacant House of Representative seats coming this Tuesday, it came to our attention that we haven't done a consolidated article on the first five tests of President Sam Seaborn's popularity across the country (or at least in the one percent of the population that lives in the five districts without a representative). Without further ado, here are the forecasts of the NBS Elections staff.
Oklahoma's 3rd district (April 16)
Vacated by: George Walker (R) (now Commissioner of Baseball)
2018 results:
PVI: R+27
Prediction: Safe Republican
This massive district, encompassing most of western Oklahoma (including its panhandle), is dark red—former Representative George Walker cruised to re-election with a margin of victory over 70 percent. So, the only result of the April 16 special election that is in doubt is the name of the Republican who will succeed Walker. The Republican primary on Tuesday will almost certainly narrow the field to two state legislators—state representative Shane Reeves and state senator Randall Butler. Both men represent different wings of the Republican Party: Butler is an establishment favorite in the Walken/Shallick mold who has been endorsed by mainstream Republican organizations like the Club for Growth and the Chamber of Commerce, while Reeves (nearly two decades Butler's junior) is the candidate for the party's grassroots, running on a platform of ending deficit spending and enacting harsh measures against illegal immigration that critics say borders on xenophobia.
The runoff primary that will almost certainly be needed will take place on March 19 to decide who will face off—and likely defeat by an overwhelming margin—the sole Democrat to file in the race, businessman Wayne Ingersoll.
Oregon's 4th district (April 30)
Vacated by: Will Bailey (D) (now White House Chief of Staff)
2018 results:
PVI: EVEN
Prediction: Toss-up
Southwestern Oregon's favorite adopted son is now the man running the White House for President Seaborn, which means that for the first time in over a decade, the Republicans have a real shot at taking this district. Their crowded March 5 primary will see one of these three seeking to be the first Republican to hold the seat in over ten years: state representative Dan Baxter, former state senator Leslie Carlisle and child's rights activist and party operative Cody Zucker. Compared to Zucker, who at 26 has tied his young political career to a unique combination of small-government conservatism and a push to increase the rights of children and young adults, Baxter and Carlisle are more conventional choices for Republican primary voters, but their parity in both fundraising and endorsements by national conservative organizations has opened the real possibility of a Zucker victory if neither "mainstream" candidate breaks through.
On the Democratic side, former lieutenant governor Callum Hinchcliffe is facing only token opposition from attorney Katie Sewall. But no matter who Hinchclife is likely to face in the special election, it will be a close race. This district voted for Henry Shallick in November, but a large part of that is due to Green Party candidate Haydn Straus taking over 10 percent of the vote in both Eugene and Springfield, the two biggest cities in the district.
Florida's 13th district (May 14)
Vacated by: Adrian Galway (R) (died in office)
2018 results:
PVI: D+2
Prediction: Lean Democrat
Popular incumbent Adrian Galway's death late last month was a tough blow for the Republicans. Galway's popularity as both a public servant and corruption watchdog allowed the Republicans to hold a seat that has been trending more Democratic each year since the 2010 redistricting. The party has been lucky to recruit Pinellas County Commissioner Dave Bellinger to be their candidate after the presumptive nominee, former St. Petersburg mayor Chris Gonzalez, announced he would not run citing his wife's ill health. But that might not be enough given the demographic shift of the district and the Democrats' recruitment of former governor Luke Minnear to be their candidate.
Minnear, who declined to run for a second term in 1996 due to health complications, has turned his life around in the two decades since he left the governor's mansion, becoming a vegan and quitting both smoking and drinking. A longtime grandee in the Florida Democratic Party and popular among St. Petersburg residents for his continued involvement in municipal affairs after the end of his statewide political career, Minnear's name recognition and fundraising prowess alone make him the favorite to win. But the district's history of voting for Republicans and strong donor interest in keeping this seat red has kept his election from being a foregone conclusion.
Former Governor Minnear (picture by Wayne Knight)
New York's 11th district (May 14)
Vacated by: Mark Richardson (D) (now Secretary of Housing and Urban Development)
2018 results:
PVI: R+3
Prediction: Toss-up
Mark Richardson is perhaps the most accomplished African-American legislator in American history, and even having most of his district redistricted to exchange deep-blue central Brooklyn with the reddish-tinted Staten Island was not enough to allow Republicans to get within single-digits of defeating one of their congressional bêtes noires. But with Richardson now running the Department of Housing and Urban Development, 11th district Democrats have to face the prospect of a seriously competitive election for the first time in decades.
They've risen to the task and recruited Eli Rosen, a decorated Qumar veteran who currently serves as the director of a free clinic in Staten Island to challenge Richardson's former aide and preferred successor Quanzey Jones in the primary. Rosen's background and place in the ideological center of the party are a much better fit for the district than Jones, with his history of involvement in radical African-American protest movements and strong left-wing beliefs on issues such as policing, healthcare and income inequality, and fundraising and polling numbers show that Rosen has opened a wide lead ahead of the March 5 primary.
For their part, the Republicans have picked a strong contender in State Assemblyman Tom Spallone. Spallone has a five-to-one advantage over his rivals in terms of fundraising and endorsements, with virtually all observers predicting he will win the Republican primary handily. Normally, Spallone would be the presumed favorite, but Richardson has seen fit to make it clear he will campaign for whoever wins the Democratic primary and Spallone's family connections with disreputable building firms mean this has all the makings of a true toss-up.
Michigan's 14th district (May 21)
Vacated by: Meredith Payne (D) (now Secretary of the Treasury)
2018 results:
PVI: D+30
Prediction: Safe Democrat
Swinging across the Detroit metro area to encompass Pontiac as well as eastern Detroit, the 14th district has only voted for a Republican once (1948) since it was created in 1933. That almost certainly will not change with the election to replace now-Treasury Secretary Meredith Payne on May 21. Payne's family is Detroit political royalty and so it was no surprise when former Detroit mayor Brandon Fields announced he would run for his aunt's old seat. Fields will almost certainly sweep both the Democratic nomination and the only Republican to file, attorney Jon Schwartz (who lost to Payne in both 2016 and 2018) in the general election to hold the seat until he moves on to another office or retires. If and when he wins, Fields will be the first member of Congress since former president Josiah Bartlet left the House in 1987 to have a Nobel Prize in economics, a fitting bit of trivia for the person looking to succeed the woman now running the Treasury Department.
Sunday, February 24th 2019
Analysis: Special Election Forecasts
With the first primary elections for the five vacant House of Representative seats coming this Tuesday, it came to our attention that we haven't done a consolidated article on the first five tests of President Sam Seaborn's popularity across the country (or at least in the one percent of the population that lives in the five districts without a representative). Without further ado, here are the forecasts of the NBS Elections staff.
Oklahoma's 3rd district (April 16)
Vacated by: George Walker (R) (now Commissioner of Baseball)
2018 results:
Walker (R): 86.1%
Hatterly (D): 13.9%
Hatterly (D): 13.9%
Prediction: Safe Republican
This massive district, encompassing most of western Oklahoma (including its panhandle), is dark red—former Representative George Walker cruised to re-election with a margin of victory over 70 percent. So, the only result of the April 16 special election that is in doubt is the name of the Republican who will succeed Walker. The Republican primary on Tuesday will almost certainly narrow the field to two state legislators—state representative Shane Reeves and state senator Randall Butler. Both men represent different wings of the Republican Party: Butler is an establishment favorite in the Walken/Shallick mold who has been endorsed by mainstream Republican organizations like the Club for Growth and the Chamber of Commerce, while Reeves (nearly two decades Butler's junior) is the candidate for the party's grassroots, running on a platform of ending deficit spending and enacting harsh measures against illegal immigration that critics say borders on xenophobia.
The runoff primary that will almost certainly be needed will take place on March 19 to decide who will face off—and likely defeat by an overwhelming margin—the sole Democrat to file in the race, businessman Wayne Ingersoll.
Oregon's 4th district (April 30)
Vacated by: Will Bailey (D) (now White House Chief of Staff)
2018 results:
Bailey (D): 62.8%
Axtell (R): 37.2%
Axtell (R): 37.2%
Prediction: Toss-up
Southwestern Oregon's favorite adopted son is now the man running the White House for President Seaborn, which means that for the first time in over a decade, the Republicans have a real shot at taking this district. Their crowded March 5 primary will see one of these three seeking to be the first Republican to hold the seat in over ten years: state representative Dan Baxter, former state senator Leslie Carlisle and child's rights activist and party operative Cody Zucker. Compared to Zucker, who at 26 has tied his young political career to a unique combination of small-government conservatism and a push to increase the rights of children and young adults, Baxter and Carlisle are more conventional choices for Republican primary voters, but their parity in both fundraising and endorsements by national conservative organizations has opened the real possibility of a Zucker victory if neither "mainstream" candidate breaks through.
On the Democratic side, former lieutenant governor Callum Hinchcliffe is facing only token opposition from attorney Katie Sewall. But no matter who Hinchclife is likely to face in the special election, it will be a close race. This district voted for Henry Shallick in November, but a large part of that is due to Green Party candidate Haydn Straus taking over 10 percent of the vote in both Eugene and Springfield, the two biggest cities in the district.
Florida's 13th district (May 14)
Vacated by: Adrian Galway (R) (died in office)
2018 results:
Galway (R): 53.9%
Almonte (D) 46.1%
Almonte (D) 46.1%
Prediction: Lean Democrat
Popular incumbent Adrian Galway's death late last month was a tough blow for the Republicans. Galway's popularity as both a public servant and corruption watchdog allowed the Republicans to hold a seat that has been trending more Democratic each year since the 2010 redistricting. The party has been lucky to recruit Pinellas County Commissioner Dave Bellinger to be their candidate after the presumptive nominee, former St. Petersburg mayor Chris Gonzalez, announced he would not run citing his wife's ill health. But that might not be enough given the demographic shift of the district and the Democrats' recruitment of former governor Luke Minnear to be their candidate.
Minnear, who declined to run for a second term in 1996 due to health complications, has turned his life around in the two decades since he left the governor's mansion, becoming a vegan and quitting both smoking and drinking. A longtime grandee in the Florida Democratic Party and popular among St. Petersburg residents for his continued involvement in municipal affairs after the end of his statewide political career, Minnear's name recognition and fundraising prowess alone make him the favorite to win. But the district's history of voting for Republicans and strong donor interest in keeping this seat red has kept his election from being a foregone conclusion.
Former Governor Minnear (picture by Wayne Knight)
New York's 11th district (May 14)
Vacated by: Mark Richardson (D) (now Secretary of Housing and Urban Development)
2018 results:
Richardson (D): 58.4%
Carr (R): 39.2%
Harris (G): 2.4%
Carr (R): 39.2%
Harris (G): 2.4%
Prediction: Toss-up
Mark Richardson is perhaps the most accomplished African-American legislator in American history, and even having most of his district redistricted to exchange deep-blue central Brooklyn with the reddish-tinted Staten Island was not enough to allow Republicans to get within single-digits of defeating one of their congressional bêtes noires. But with Richardson now running the Department of Housing and Urban Development, 11th district Democrats have to face the prospect of a seriously competitive election for the first time in decades.
They've risen to the task and recruited Eli Rosen, a decorated Qumar veteran who currently serves as the director of a free clinic in Staten Island to challenge Richardson's former aide and preferred successor Quanzey Jones in the primary. Rosen's background and place in the ideological center of the party are a much better fit for the district than Jones, with his history of involvement in radical African-American protest movements and strong left-wing beliefs on issues such as policing, healthcare and income inequality, and fundraising and polling numbers show that Rosen has opened a wide lead ahead of the March 5 primary.
For their part, the Republicans have picked a strong contender in State Assemblyman Tom Spallone. Spallone has a five-to-one advantage over his rivals in terms of fundraising and endorsements, with virtually all observers predicting he will win the Republican primary handily. Normally, Spallone would be the presumed favorite, but Richardson has seen fit to make it clear he will campaign for whoever wins the Democratic primary and Spallone's family connections with disreputable building firms mean this has all the makings of a true toss-up.
Michigan's 14th district (May 21)
Vacated by: Meredith Payne (D) (now Secretary of the Treasury)
2018 results:
Payne (D): 86.6%
Schwartz (R) 13.4%
Schwartz (R) 13.4%
Prediction: Safe Democrat
Swinging across the Detroit metro area to encompass Pontiac as well as eastern Detroit, the 14th district has only voted for a Republican once (1948) since it was created in 1933. That almost certainly will not change with the election to replace now-Treasury Secretary Meredith Payne on May 21. Payne's family is Detroit political royalty and so it was no surprise when former Detroit mayor Brandon Fields announced he would run for his aunt's old seat. Fields will almost certainly sweep both the Democratic nomination and the only Republican to file, attorney Jon Schwartz (who lost to Payne in both 2016 and 2018) in the general election to hold the seat until he moves on to another office or retires. If and when he wins, Fields will be the first member of Congress since former president Josiah Bartlet left the House in 1987 to have a Nobel Prize in economics, a fitting bit of trivia for the person looking to succeed the woman now running the Treasury Department.
Atlantis Cable News
BREAKING NEWS
Edwards returns to White House; Tatum back behind podium as POTUS expected to hold press conference at 5pm
Washington D.C.- Both John Edwards and Cassie Tatum returned to the White House this morning following several days of speculation that they had resigned. While it is still unclear with regards to Mr. Edwards, Cassie Tatum was back behind the podium this morning as she briefed the White House Press Corps. Sources inside the West Wing have indicated that this is a signal that Edwards will be remaining at his post, as Tatum had allegedly threatened to resign in solidarity with Mr. Edwards.
While Mr. Edwards has yet to address reports that he handed in a letter of resignation, we do understand that he had an hour long meeting with the President this morning, where the topic of discussion is believed to be the HHS Secretary nomination. It was also confirmed that Mr. Edwards will be present when the President speaks at a Press Conference later this afternoon. Speculation is rising that the President will be announcing a new pick for HHS, one that is likely to pass through the GOP controlled Senate.
25 February 2019
Pope prepares for retirement
After leading his final Mass yesterday in the Vatican, Pope Victor IV has begun the process of tying up loose ends to the papacy that has lasted nearly one quarter of a century. After recuperating from his final trip from his homeland of Rwanda and his final Mass, the pontiff has finalized several outstanding pieces of business left before his resignation takes effect at noon local time on Thursday, 28 February.
The most controversial decree that His Holiness announced was the defrocking of Cardinal Timothy Peck and former Cardinal Joseph McCaughey over sexual abusing congregants and abusing their power as priests. Peck, the former Archbishop of Sydney, was found guilty by an Australian court of child sexual abuse last week, the highest-ranking Catholic official yet convicted in the ongoing sexual abuse scandal that has consumed the church during the latter half of Victor's papacy. McCaughey, who had resigned his position in the College of Cardinals last winter, was found guilty of sexually abusing both children and adults by an internal church investigation, since his alleged abuse was outside the statute of limitations in the United States.
Peck, who at age 77 would have been eligible to vote for Victor's successor, had previously stated his inability to attend due to his conviction and reportedly urged Vatican officials to give him a diplomatic passport to attend the conclave after pleading his innocence. McCaughey, at age 88, was ineligible to vote in the papal conclave at the time of his laicisation.
The pope's second most notable decree was Normas nonnullas, that allows the College of Cardinals to vote to start the papal conclave in three days following the end of a papacy, ahead of the previous 15 days. This is a change from the pope's previous declaration that he would allow the conclave to elect his successor to start the day after his resignation takes effect. Several members of the College of Cardinals had publicly and privately criticized the plan to begin the conclave on 1 March and Vatican sources say the pope was convinced to move the earliest possible start to the conclave back a few days after receiving feedback from the cardinals.
The Vatican also announced that the pope has spoken to all 122 cardinals who will be able to participate in the conclave to succeed him and has imparted his advice and well-wishes to each of them. Canon law dictates that a maximum of 120 cardinal-electors may participate in a conclave, but Vatican sources have said that at least two eligible electors, Seán O'Flannigan (former Archbishop of Armagh) and Joseph-Luc Bezungu (former Archbishop of Kinshasa) so far have told the Vatican that they will not attend due to poor health.
Finally, it is reported that almost all of the pope's personal effects have been moved from the papal residences to the monastery in Rome where he plans to spend the remainder of his life. Vatican spokesmen say that the 93 year-old pontiff will still live at the papal residence until he departs on Thursday and that most of what will be moved on Thursday are for the pope's medical needs, including a wheelchair the pontiff sometimes uses if he feels too weak to walk.
NBS.COM
Monday February 25th 2019
Sebaorn Press Conference Main Points:
CJ Cregg to support Secretary of State Adair on European Tour starting at end of this week
Former West Virginia Governor Stan Hale nominated as HHS Secretary
Deputy Communications Director John Edwards and Press Secretary Cassie Tatum staying in current jobs
Monday February 25th 2019
Sebaorn Press Conference Main Points:
CJ Cregg to support Secretary of State Adair on European Tour starting at end of this week
Former West Virginia Governor Stan Hale nominated as HHS Secretary
Deputy Communications Director John Edwards and Press Secretary Cassie Tatum staying in current jobs
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Hey what's Will's sister Elsie Snuffin up to these days? I always thought she'd be a good choice as Chief of Staff to the First Lady.
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If the Adair trip goes south! Then C.J. Cregg needs to go! She’s on her last life-line! She better not screw it up!
BBC.CO.UK/Politics
Tuesday February 26th 2019
Two by-elections confirmed for March 28th
By-elections sparked by the resignation of Liberal Democrat Leader Robert Richardson and the death of Labour MP Stan Dove are both to be held on March 28th.
Richardson announced his decision to quit as MP for Bermondsey and Old Southwark on February 11th to become the Director of the International Centre for Humanitarian Demining based in Geneva. Labour Back Bencher Stan Dove, MP for South Shields who was 86 years old, passed away on February 17th after a short illness.
The Liberals Democrats have yet to confirm their candidate, who will be defending a majority of 11,268. The seat and it's predecessor's have been held since Robert Richardson won it at the 1991 General Election from Labour with a famous 16.90% swing (A swing so large it broke Peter Snow's computerised swingometer on the BBC's Election Night coverage). The Labour Party has declared it will be a target seat and their candidate will be the same as the General Election last September, local Councillor Patrick Allinson.
South Shields is a regarded as a "safe Labour" seat although Mr Dove had seen his majority being reduced at the General election from 21,974 to 15,134 a swing of 3.9% against him. No decision as yet been made on the major party candidates.
Tuesday February 26th 2019
Two by-elections confirmed for March 28th
By-elections sparked by the resignation of Liberal Democrat Leader Robert Richardson and the death of Labour MP Stan Dove are both to be held on March 28th.
Richardson announced his decision to quit as MP for Bermondsey and Old Southwark on February 11th to become the Director of the International Centre for Humanitarian Demining based in Geneva. Labour Back Bencher Stan Dove, MP for South Shields who was 86 years old, passed away on February 17th after a short illness.
The Liberals Democrats have yet to confirm their candidate, who will be defending a majority of 11,268. The seat and it's predecessor's have been held since Robert Richardson won it at the 1991 General Election from Labour with a famous 16.90% swing (A swing so large it broke Peter Snow's computerised swingometer on the BBC's Election Night coverage). The Labour Party has declared it will be a target seat and their candidate will be the same as the General Election last September, local Councillor Patrick Allinson.
South Shields is a regarded as a "safe Labour" seat although Mr Dove had seen his majority being reduced at the General election from 21,974 to 15,134 a swing of 3.9% against him. No decision as yet been made on the major party candidates.
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Bermondsey Wikipedia Info-Boxes
South Shields
(With grateful thanks to lord caedus)
South Shields
(With grateful thanks to lord caedus)
I was considering making an infobox for Minnesota's senators ITTL, but realized that I'd have to cast four senators in one seat, so I figured it would be easier to jot them down as lists instead:
Class 1
1971-1978: Hubert H. Humphrey (Democratic-Farmer-Labor)
Elections: 1970, 1976
1978: Muriel Humphrey (Democratic-Farmer-Labor)
1978-1995: Ted Mikkelsen (Independent Republican)
Elections: 1978 (special), 1982, 1988
1995-2001: Fred Crossfield (Democratic-Farmer-Labor)
Elections: 1994
2001-2013: Mark Ramsey (Republican)
Elections: 2000, 2006
2013: John Roscoe (Republican)
Elections: 2012
2013-2019: John Roscoe (independent)
2019-0000: Lara Mansfield (Democratic-Farmer-Labor)
Elections: 2018
Hubert Humphrey died in office of bladder cancer after seven years back in the Senate following his narrow loss to Richard Nixon in the 1968 presidential election. His wife Muriel Humphrey is appointed as a placeholder in an act of "widow's succession", and declines to run to fill out the remainder of husband's term. With both Senate seats up, Minnesota voters unusually split their tickets and hand this seat to the Independent Republicans (the state Republican Party's name after changing it due to fallout from Watergate in 1975) and their nominee Ted Mikkelsen. Mikkelsen's moderate policies and constituent service, for the first decade of his term, made it seem like he would be reelected until he retired or died like his ideological counterpart in Minnesota's other Senate seat. But in the early 1990s, he was embroiled in scandal over misusing Senate funds and abusing his office to influence newspaper coverage of him. Mikkelsen defied party leaders and ran for a fourth term despite the likelihood that he would be the subject of a Senate censure vote if he was reelected.
Mikkelsen's star had fallen so much that even in the 1994 Republican landslide, he lost to Fred Crossfield handily. Crossfield largely was invisible during his time in Congress, and it was not surprising that he lost re-election in 2000 to Mark Ramsey. Ramsey, although slightly to the right of the median Minnesotan voter, was nonetheless popular on a personal level and won reelection handily in 2006. Feeling tired with the Senate, Ramsey opted to retire and was replaced by John Roscoe. Roscoe, unlike the staid, wry Ramsey, was one of the most eccentric senators from Minnesota's history. Less than a year into his term, he announced his departure from the Republican Party and would spend the remainder of his term as an independent, first caucusing with the Democrats and then the Republicans. Despite his refusal to formally rejoin the party, Roscoe received the endorsement of the Republicans in 2018 but ultimately lost to State Public Safety Commissioner Lara Mansfield. Mansfield is the first elected female senator in Minnesota history.
Class 2
1964-1976: Walter Mondale (Democratic-Farmer-Labor)
Elections: 1966, 1972
1976-1978: Wendell Anderson (Democratic-Farmer-Labor)
1978-2010: Howard Stackhouse (Democratic-Farmer-Labor)
Elections: 1978, 1984, 1990, 1996, 2002, 2008
2010-2019: Jack Hunter (Republican)
Elections: 2010 (special), 2014
2019-0000: Peggy Jones (Democratic-Farmer-Labor)
When Walter Mondale was elected vice president in 1976, Governor Wendell Anderson decided to fill the seat himself. Resigning and having now-governor Rudy Perpich appoint him to the seat, Anderson incurred the wrath of voters, who reacted negatively to what they perceived as self-serving opportunism. The formerly-popular governor's unpopularity spread even to the Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL)'s grassroots and in one of the greatest upsets in state political history, liberal activist Howard Stackhouse narrowly defeated Anderson in the party primary. Stackhouse's populist, unabashedly liberal campaign was able to defy political gravity in a year when (Independent) Republicans won massive gains in Minnesota and entrenched him in state political history.
Stackhouse would become Minnesota's longest-serving senator with nearly 32 years of service, and won a state record six Senate elections. A strident voice for liberalism, Stackhouse famously challenged incumbent President D. Wire Newman in the Democratic primaries in 1990, and then a dozen years later, ran a third-party independent campaign against President Josiah Bartlet until dropping out in the final months of the campaign. His unapologetic liberalism, including his willingness to attack and criticize sitting Democratic presidents made him legendary among state and federal political observers. His sixth and final term was truncated by his mid-term retirement, resulting in a concurrent special election alongside the 2010 presidential election. The election would be the first time since 1942 that Republicans won the seat, with former St. Paul mayor Jack Hunter, managing to capture the seat. Hunter quickly made his name known in the Senate and after he won reelection to a full term of his own in 2014, quickly was considered a potential president or vice president. Hunter declined to run for president, but was picked by Republican nominee Henry Shallick to be vice president in 2018. After a narrow loss to the Democratic ticket of Sam Seaborn and Franklin Hollis, Hunter was unexpectedly elevated to the vice presidency when Democratic presidential electors revolted en masse against Hollis and the Republican-controlled Senate picked Hunter to be Seaborn's deputy. With his election and resignation, Hunter became the third person who had held this Senate seat to become vice president.
Hunter resigned shortly before assuming the vice presidency and Governor Jarrod Daniels appointed his lieutenant governor Peggy Jones to replace him. With her appointment, for the first time, Minnesota was represented by two women in the Senate.
Class 1
1971-1978: Hubert H. Humphrey (Democratic-Farmer-Labor)
Elections: 1970, 1976
1978: Muriel Humphrey (Democratic-Farmer-Labor)
1978-1995: Ted Mikkelsen (Independent Republican)
Elections: 1978 (special), 1982, 1988
1995-2001: Fred Crossfield (Democratic-Farmer-Labor)
Elections: 1994
2001-2013: Mark Ramsey (Republican)
Elections: 2000, 2006
2013: John Roscoe (Republican)
Elections: 2012
2013-2019: John Roscoe (independent)
2019-0000: Lara Mansfield (Democratic-Farmer-Labor)
Elections: 2018
Hubert Humphrey died in office of bladder cancer after seven years back in the Senate following his narrow loss to Richard Nixon in the 1968 presidential election. His wife Muriel Humphrey is appointed as a placeholder in an act of "widow's succession", and declines to run to fill out the remainder of husband's term. With both Senate seats up, Minnesota voters unusually split their tickets and hand this seat to the Independent Republicans (the state Republican Party's name after changing it due to fallout from Watergate in 1975) and their nominee Ted Mikkelsen. Mikkelsen's moderate policies and constituent service, for the first decade of his term, made it seem like he would be reelected until he retired or died like his ideological counterpart in Minnesota's other Senate seat. But in the early 1990s, he was embroiled in scandal over misusing Senate funds and abusing his office to influence newspaper coverage of him. Mikkelsen defied party leaders and ran for a fourth term despite the likelihood that he would be the subject of a Senate censure vote if he was reelected.
Mikkelsen's star had fallen so much that even in the 1994 Republican landslide, he lost to Fred Crossfield handily. Crossfield largely was invisible during his time in Congress, and it was not surprising that he lost re-election in 2000 to Mark Ramsey. Ramsey, although slightly to the right of the median Minnesotan voter, was nonetheless popular on a personal level and won reelection handily in 2006. Feeling tired with the Senate, Ramsey opted to retire and was replaced by John Roscoe. Roscoe, unlike the staid, wry Ramsey, was one of the most eccentric senators from Minnesota's history. Less than a year into his term, he announced his departure from the Republican Party and would spend the remainder of his term as an independent, first caucusing with the Democrats and then the Republicans. Despite his refusal to formally rejoin the party, Roscoe received the endorsement of the Republicans in 2018 but ultimately lost to State Public Safety Commissioner Lara Mansfield. Mansfield is the first elected female senator in Minnesota history.
Class 2
1964-1976: Walter Mondale (Democratic-Farmer-Labor)
Elections: 1966, 1972
1976-1978: Wendell Anderson (Democratic-Farmer-Labor)
1978-2010: Howard Stackhouse (Democratic-Farmer-Labor)
Elections: 1978, 1984, 1990, 1996, 2002, 2008
2010-2019: Jack Hunter (Republican)
Elections: 2010 (special), 2014
2019-0000: Peggy Jones (Democratic-Farmer-Labor)
When Walter Mondale was elected vice president in 1976, Governor Wendell Anderson decided to fill the seat himself. Resigning and having now-governor Rudy Perpich appoint him to the seat, Anderson incurred the wrath of voters, who reacted negatively to what they perceived as self-serving opportunism. The formerly-popular governor's unpopularity spread even to the Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL)'s grassroots and in one of the greatest upsets in state political history, liberal activist Howard Stackhouse narrowly defeated Anderson in the party primary. Stackhouse's populist, unabashedly liberal campaign was able to defy political gravity in a year when (Independent) Republicans won massive gains in Minnesota and entrenched him in state political history.
Stackhouse would become Minnesota's longest-serving senator with nearly 32 years of service, and won a state record six Senate elections. A strident voice for liberalism, Stackhouse famously challenged incumbent President D. Wire Newman in the Democratic primaries in 1990, and then a dozen years later, ran a third-party independent campaign against President Josiah Bartlet until dropping out in the final months of the campaign. His unapologetic liberalism, including his willingness to attack and criticize sitting Democratic presidents made him legendary among state and federal political observers. His sixth and final term was truncated by his mid-term retirement, resulting in a concurrent special election alongside the 2010 presidential election. The election would be the first time since 1942 that Republicans won the seat, with former St. Paul mayor Jack Hunter, managing to capture the seat. Hunter quickly made his name known in the Senate and after he won reelection to a full term of his own in 2014, quickly was considered a potential president or vice president. Hunter declined to run for president, but was picked by Republican nominee Henry Shallick to be vice president in 2018. After a narrow loss to the Democratic ticket of Sam Seaborn and Franklin Hollis, Hunter was unexpectedly elevated to the vice presidency when Democratic presidential electors revolted en masse against Hollis and the Republican-controlled Senate picked Hunter to be Seaborn's deputy. With his election and resignation, Hunter became the third person who had held this Senate seat to become vice president.
Hunter resigned shortly before assuming the vice presidency and Governor Jarrod Daniels appointed his lieutenant governor Peggy Jones to replace him. With her appointment, for the first time, Minnesota was represented by two women in the Senate.
The only new piece of info is the date Crossfield assumed office and the character of Mikkelsen as the senator between him and Muriel Humphrey.[/Notes]
chicagotribune.com
February 26, 2019
ENLOW SOUNDLY REJECTED BY VOTERS, THRUSTON AND MESSINA ADVANCE TO RUNOFF
With 93% of precincts in, Mayor Jack Enlow has been firmly defeated in his re-election bid as his dysfunctional mayoralty comes to an end with his approval rating near 11%. Enlow's main opponents, rapper Mike "Thrust" Thruston and Washington titan Hank Messina are advancing to a runoff which will be held on April 2. Messina is currently leading with 36% to Thrust's 33%. Enlow is battling for third place with perennial candidate Beau Kettle, a talk radio host and former police officer. Both candidates have drawn roughly 10%, and six other candidates have split the remaining 10%.
February 26, 2019
ENLOW SOUNDLY REJECTED BY VOTERS, THRUSTON AND MESSINA ADVANCE TO RUNOFF
With 93% of precincts in, Mayor Jack Enlow has been firmly defeated in his re-election bid as his dysfunctional mayoralty comes to an end with his approval rating near 11%. Enlow's main opponents, rapper Mike "Thrust" Thruston and Washington titan Hank Messina are advancing to a runoff which will be held on April 2. Messina is currently leading with 36% to Thrust's 33%. Enlow is battling for third place with perennial candidate Beau Kettle, a talk radio host and former police officer. Both candidates have drawn roughly 10%, and six other candidates have split the remaining 10%.
NBS.COM
Wednesday February 27th 2019
NBS to show Republican Congressional Primary Debate on Sunday
NBS will be showing the only debate ahead of the Republican Primary debate for the nomination for the 4th Congressional district this coming Sunday, March 4th. The Primary election is just two days later on Tuesday March 5th.
The debate is between the three Republican Candidates, state representative Dan Baxter, former state senator Leslie Carlisle and child's rights activist and party operative Cody Zucker. It's being held at the Campus of Pioneer Pacific College in Springfield. The debate starts 9.PM (local time).
Wednesday February 27th 2019
NBS to show Republican Congressional Primary Debate on Sunday
NBS will be showing the only debate ahead of the Republican Primary debate for the nomination for the 4th Congressional district this coming Sunday, March 4th. The Primary election is just two days later on Tuesday March 5th.
The debate is between the three Republican Candidates, state representative Dan Baxter, former state senator Leslie Carlisle and child's rights activist and party operative Cody Zucker. It's being held at the Campus of Pioneer Pacific College in Springfield. The debate starts 9.PM (local time).
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NBS.COM
Thursday February 28th 2019
Adair to start overseas tour with trip to Australia and New Zealand
Secretary of State August Adair will start his first overseas trip as Secretary of State with visits to Australia and New Zealand. He and the state department delegation supported by Senior Presidential Advisor CJ Cregg will arrive Friday in Canberra for talks with Australian Prime-Minister Dominic Rogers and further talks on Saturday he will fly to Wellington for talks with the countries Prime-Minister Kylie Brownlee.
The State Department has confirmed that the destinations of Secretary Adair's tour are only being realised one leg at a time for "security reasons".
Thursday February 28th 2019
Adair to start overseas tour with trip to Australia and New Zealand
Secretary of State August Adair will start his first overseas trip as Secretary of State with visits to Australia and New Zealand. He and the state department delegation supported by Senior Presidential Advisor CJ Cregg will arrive Friday in Canberra for talks with Australian Prime-Minister Dominic Rogers and further talks on Saturday he will fly to Wellington for talks with the countries Prime-Minister Kylie Brownlee.
The State Department has confirmed that the destinations of Secretary Adair's tour are only being realised one leg at a time for "security reasons".
New Zealand Prime-Minister Kylie Brownlee
PM since 2017, Leader of the Labour Party
(photo by Melanie Lynskey)
PM since 2017, Leader of the Labour Party
(photo by Melanie Lynskey)
28 February 2018
Pope Victor IV delivers farewell message to faithful
Victor IV delivered his final address to faithful congregants today at 11 AM (10 AM GMT) shortly before his resignation as pontiff took effect, ending one of the longest papal reigns in history and an era for Roman Catholics everywhere. Appearing on the balcony of the papal palace of Castelo Gandolfo, the outgoing pope was greeted by rapturous applause and took a moment to compose himself before beginning a short address. Addressed simply to "Dear friends," the first African-born pontiff since the 5th century declared that he was "only a pilgrim, beginning the last leg of his pilgrimage on this Earth." He briefly recounted his journey from French-ruled Rwanda to head of the Roman Catholic Church, and his decision to resign saying that he had been honored to have "served the Lord actively for seven decades" and offered final parting words:
"But I would still ... with my heart, with my love, with my prayers, with my reflection, and with all my inner strength, like to work for the common good and the good of the church and of humanity. I feel very supported by your sympathy and would like for you to extend your sympathy, love and devotion to my successor, as I intend to do. Let us go forward with the Lord for the good of the church and the world. Thank you."
Several members of the audience openly cried during both his speech and as church bells rang at noon, signalling both noon Mass and the end of Victor IV's papacy. Camerlengo Cardinal Jean-Pierre Poupard formally declared that the pope had resigned, starting the period of sede vacante (Latin for "empty seat"). The Ring of the Fishermen, symbolic of the pope's authority, was destroyed by Cardinal Poupard in the presence of several members of the College of Cardinals, following Vatican tradition. The Vatican is expected to announce sometime tomorrow the date for the beginning of the papal conclave to elect a new pope. It will be the first papal conclave in almost 25 years and the first conclave of the millennium.
The 93 year-old former pontiff has relocated to the Roman monastery where he plans to spend his retirement in prayer and contemplation. Now known as the pope emeritus, he will still go by the name Victor IV instead of reverting to his birth name of Jean-Luc Kabuga and will continue to be able to wear the white garments he wore as pope.
Thursday, February 28th 2019
Features: What you'll need to know for the papal conclave
Vatican City — With Pope Victor IV's long papacy over, the first papal conclave since 1995 is expected to begin within the next few days. With the former pontiff only a few miles away, 120 members of the College of Cardinals will meet to elect his successor within a few days. Owing to the pope emeritus' (as he is now called) long reign, there is only one cardinal (Archbishop Mirza Nurkić of Bosnia and Herzegovina) who will participate in this conclave who also took part in the conclave that elected Victor.
The Roman Catholic Church's millennia-long history has led to a truly unique and intricate system for selecting their leader, and with the last conclave held a quarter-century ago, most people are not aware of the exact process by which a new pope is elected.
Who elects the Pope?
The pope is elected by members of the College of Cardinals, the formal name for the body of all current and former cardinals, the top rank in the Roman Catholic church hierarchy underneath the pope himself.
By papal law, only cardinals under 80 years of age at the time of the papacy becoming vacant (meaning they cannot be born before February 28, 1939) are eligible to participate in conclaves, although ineligible cardinals are allowed to attend as observers (the travel distances involved for most cardinals and the advanced age of ineligible cardinals makes this a formality for all but a few cardinals who reside in or close to Rome). The conclave is further limited to only 120 eligible cardinals (or cardinal-electors, as they are called) participating. Currently there are 122 eligible cardinal electors, but three (Seán O'Flannigan of Ireland, Joseph-Luc Bezungu of Zaire and Vincent Kandulna of India) have declined to participate owing to ill health.
Who is eligible?
Effectively, though, it is only the members of the College of Cardinals themselves who have a chance at being elected. The last time someone from outside the College of Cardinals was elected was 1378 (when Pope Urban VI was elected).
Election Procedures
Traditionally, the papacy becomes vacant only with the death of the incumbent. It was only with Celestine VI's resignation after suffering grievous injuries in a 1981 assassination attempt that the ability of modern popes to resign was confirmed. As with Victor IV's resignation, Celestine's resignation was submitted to the College of Cardinals and the Cardinal Camerlengo (the official who oversees the property and revenue of the Holy See and who traditionally ran the pope's household) accepts the resignation and symbolically destroys or defaces any symbols of the previous pope's authority. He then declares the papacy vacant, starting a period of sede vacante (Latin for "empty seat").
This period, in the case of the death of the previous pope, typically lasts 15 days as the late pope is mourned and buried. In the case of a papal resignation such as with the current sede vacante, the College of Cardinals can choose to limit the period to as few as three days before convening to elect the new pope.
The conclave is presided over traditionally by the Dean of the College of Cardinals, the most senior member of the college. But if either he or the Vice-Dean (the second-most senior member) are ineligible to participate, the duty falls to the highest eligible cardinal-bishop to preside. For this conclave, Cardinal Secretary of State Francisco Petrucci will preside as the most senior cardinal-bishop eligible to participate. Before the conclave begins, every participating cardinal attends Mass at the Sistine Chapel and takes a public vow promising not to divulge the events of the conclave, with a punishment of excommunication for violators. Then, the official presiding over the conclave orders everyone except the participants expelled from the chapel and seals the members inside until the conclave is over.
To be elected, one candidate needs a two-thirds majority of all participants. On the first day of the conclave, one ballot may take place. If, in the very likely event, that no candidate receives the necessary amount of votes, balloting continues the next day. A maximum of four ballots may take place on each of the next two days. If no candidate is elected at the end of the third day of voting, the voting is suspended for one day of prayer and contemplation before resuming on the fifth day of the conclave. If there is no winner after a further seven further ballots, the conclave is again suspended for a day of prayer and contemplation, a cycle that repeats if a further seven ballots fail to elect a winner. If no candidate has been elected after this second round of seven ballots with no winner, only the candidates with the two highest vote totals in the previous round of voting can be chosen from until one of the two receives the necessary two-thirds of the vote to become the next pope.
The vote totals are not publicized and after every round of voting, the ballots are destroyed to prevent information from leaking to the outside. The burning of the ballot papers with chemical additives to change the color of the smoke from the chapel's chimney also signals to the outside world the results of that ballot: black smoke indicates that no pope was elected, and white smoke indicates that a pope has been elected.
Once a pope has been elected, he chooses a papal name to be known by during his reign. Then he dresses in papal robes and is introduced to the world from the chapel's balcony with the declaration of "habemus papam" (Latin for "we have a pope").
What's new
Following rapprochement with the Maronite Church and the Syro-Malanka Church in 2007 and 2012, respectively, their leaders have been made ex officio cardinals and are thus eligible to participate. Marionite Grand Patriarch Nasrallah Boutros al-Ghali and Syro-Malanka Major-Archbishop Isaac Baselios will thus be the first members of their specific churches to participate alongside members of the mainline Roman Catholic Church in a papal conclave.
With the increasing prevalence and ease of concealment of electronic devices such as recorders, cell phones and video cameras, the Vatican will sweep the chapel twice for electronic devices, and similarly search every participating cardinal and conclave staff before they are allowed inside. Vatican City already does not have Wi-Fi access, but wireless signal jammers will be deployed to prevent any electronic communication from reaching in or out of the chapel during the conclave.
The Vatican, however, is not completely in the technological dark ages: an official live-stream of the chapel chimney will reportedly go online after the cardinals are sealed inside and the official papal Twitter account will resume activity by declaring "habemus papem" once a new pope is elected.
Top candidates
Francisco PetrucciNationality: Italian
Position: Cardinal Secretary of State
Age: 65
Outlook: Moderate
Odds: 5:1
Notes: Groomed as a potential successor by Victor IV, but has made enemies in Vatican political battles. Will be presiding over the conclave as the senior eligible cardinal-bishop.
Joseph Wambui
Nationality: Kenyan.
Position: Prefect for the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples, formerly Archbishop of Nairobi
Age: 70
Outlook: Moderate
Odds: 7:1
Notes: Considered by many to be Victor IV's spiritual and intellectual heir apparent, Wambui would be the perfect candidate to further the pope emeritus' legacy.
Martino Fabbri
Nationality: Italian
Position: Archbishop of Florence
Age: 73
Outlook: Conservative
Odds: 12:1
Notes: For those who find Petrucci too moderate, Archbishop Fabbri is perhaps the only Italian who can reclaim the See of St. Peter for the first time since 1978.
Sebastian Gómez
Nationality: Chilean
Position: Archbishop of Santiago de Chile
Age: 68
Outlook: Conservative
Odds: 14/1
Notes: Combing a conservative theology, with a strong record of service to the marginalized, Gómez is a leading contender to be the first South American pope.
Vincent Bouchard
Nationality: Canadian
Position: Archbishop of Toronto
Age: 67
Outlook: Moderate
Odds: 20/1
Notes: One of the first cardinals to embrace social media and a regular face on television, Bouchard has developed a reputation for being able to present Catholic theology in an engaging way. The Archbishop of Toronto could well be the perfect pope for the Internet age.
Eduardo RamosNationality: Italian
Position: Archbishop of Florence
Age: 73
Outlook: Conservative
Odds: 12:1
Notes: For those who find Petrucci too moderate, Archbishop Fabbri is perhaps the only Italian who can reclaim the See of St. Peter for the first time since 1978.
Sebastian Gómez
Nationality: Chilean
Position: Archbishop of Santiago de Chile
Age: 68
Outlook: Conservative
Odds: 14/1
Notes: Combing a conservative theology, with a strong record of service to the marginalized, Gómez is a leading contender to be the first South American pope.
Vincent Bouchard
Nationality: Canadian
Position: Archbishop of Toronto
Age: 67
Outlook: Moderate
Odds: 20/1
Notes: One of the first cardinals to embrace social media and a regular face on television, Bouchard has developed a reputation for being able to present Catholic theology in an engaging way. The Archbishop of Toronto could well be the perfect pope for the Internet age.
Nationality: Portuguese
Position: Patriarch of Lisbon
Age: 70
Outlook: Conservative
Odds: 20/1
Notes: A renowned theologian and church historian, Ramos is considered the co-leader (alongside Cardinal Visser) of the church's conservative wing.
Ambroos Visser
Nationality: Dutch
Position: Prefect for the Congregation of the Doctrine of the Faith, formerly Archbishop of Utrecht
Age: 70
Outlook: Conservative
Odds: 25/1
Notes: One of Pope Victor's more outspoken critics, it is believed he was appointed prefect in order to shore up Victor's conservative credentials. He would be the second Dutch pope in thirty years if elected.
Nationality: Spanish
Position: Archbishop of Barcelona
Age: 71
Outlook: Moderate
Odds: 33/1
Notes: One of the Victor IV's closest allies, and his main trouble-shooter, Ortega had repeatedly been offered positions within the Curia, but reportedly prefers to steer clear of Vatican politics.
Naveen Kapoor
Nationality: Indian
Position: Archbishop of Bombay
Age: 62
Outlook: Liberal
Odds: 75/1
Notes: The youngest papabili (the singular form of papabile) and one of the newest cardinals, Kapoor is a liberation theologian who has been the leading spokesman for the church's liberal wing, pushing ideas such as women's ordination. Normally, he would not be seriously considered but for the fact that his intellect and sense of humor have made him popular with his colleagues.
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