2018 Presidential Election


Winners and Losers of the Final GOP debate

Sunday, January 16th, 2022

The six remaining Republican candidates for president took to the debate stage in Manchester, New Hamphire earlier tonight, just days before the New Hampshire primary.

It was the final opportunity for the whole field to debate each other before a national audience, and it quickly proved to be the most raucous debate yet. Senator Jack Irving (IL) has a solid lead in New Hampshire, and it seemed like most other candidates were already looking at the next stops on the primary calendar, Nevada and South Carolina.

Below are the NBS Election 2022 team's choices for the winners and losers of tonight's debate


Jack Irving
: Irving is leading the polling in New Hampshire by ten percentage-points and seems to have felt this was his chance to turn his victory into a route. He was aggressive (perhaps too aggressive?) in going after his main rivals, especially Alan Duke. He clearly touched sore spots when he told Duke that he would "not take advice from a man who blew a 40% lead in six months", referencing Duke's shocking loss to Democrat Bradley Denning in 2014 and when he asked Ruth Norton-Stewart what had happened to the commanding lead in the polls his colleague had enjoyed in early 2021.

Robert Royce: Royce was the only candidate who seemed to interrupt solely to try and help the moderators wrangle the candidates into line. He may not have been effective, but his exasperated "for God's sake, let her talk" during a segment when moderator Norah O'Donnell was trying to change subjects seems to be the most-trending clip on social media as of this writing.

Jack Hunter: The vice president didn't appear in person, but via pre-recorded message ahead of the first question. He struck the right tone of statesman-like and self-effacing. "I wish every one of you good luck in tonight's debate...But not too much luck, I just bought the 'hunter2026.com' domain name." was a good closer that was sadly squandered by a fractious debate.

Seaborn campaign: It doesn't take a political mastermind to see the value for Democrats in the last Republican debate turning into what one insider that spoke to NBS on condition of anonymity has already called a "squabbling mess." Expect to see interest group ads, and maybe some by the Seaborn campaign itself, using clips from the debates in the near future.

Gus Edwards: Edwards didn't do a whole lot to distinguish himself in the debate, but he is polling surprisingly well (around 10%) among GOP voters here and didn't make any mistakes. It will be interesting to see if he can continue to get this level of support outside of the "Live Free or Die" state, especially given his low profile and decidedly meager fundraising compared to the rest of the field.


CBS' debate hosts
: Co-hosts Norah O'Donnell and Gayle King were unprepared for the chaos of tonight's debate and their inability to rein in candidates interrupting each other or going over their allotted time added to some candidates' frustration (see above). The addition of a second moderator is a good idea when it's a debate between six candidates, but O'Donnell and King weren't coordinating well and it seems like CBS was not able to negotiate measures like cutting microphones for candidates that went on too long or tried to interrupt with the campaigns.

Alan Duke: You could almost see steam coming from Duke's ears by the time he walked off the stage. He clearly wasn't expecting Jack Irving's relentless attacks and it knocked him off his game, fumbling a few answers and causing him to snap at Irving in a way that didn't seem "presidential." It will be interesting to see if his support dips at all as a result—especially outside of New Hampshire, where it's looking like he'll finish a distant third (or fourth).

Ruth Norton-Stewart: If there was one candidate who suffered for the poor moderation, it was Norton-Stewart. The Ohio senator was the only candidate up there with a shot of winning Tuesday's primary who seemed to want to talk about the issues rather than attack her colleagues, but she quickly got lost in the crossfire and failed to make much of an impact.

Charlie Forrester: The junior senator from Georgia has been having a rough go of it lately. His sole mention by late-night talk shows was for accidentally spilling a bar patron's mug on Thursday during one of his trademarked press conferences at bars or clubs. Tonight didn't get much better, with his strategy appearing to change midway to joining in the scrap, but in a way that seemed half-hearted and pleased no one.

Republican unity: Threats of third-party candidacies from the center-right and far right prompted moderators to ask the candidates if they would pledge to support the party's eventual nominee, regardless of who it ended up being. Only half the field (Forrester, Norton-Stewart and Royce) agreed. The two major candidates who didn't, Duke and Irving, both put preconditions on who they would accept: Irving would limit his support to a Republican "who would seek to further unite, not further divide us", while Duke said he would support any nominee "chosen freely without the influence of backroom deals or coordination from the party elite."

Monday January 17th, 2022

Conservative MP arrested during dawn police raids

James Adcock, the Conservative MP for Carlisle was arrested early this morning at his home in the constituency. It was carried out by officers of the Cumbria Constabulary as well as officers from the National Crime Agency's "Economic Crime Command" and Revenue and Customs.

Adcock, 55, was first elected to parliament at the 2013 General Election and re-elected in 2018, has various business interests including a large property business covering the north-west and London. According to a police statement, the arrest is linked to "several ongoing investigations relating to tax fraud and bribery" and "claims of assault and threats of intimidation made by several tenants of "Adcock Property Ltd".

The Metropolitan police also raided two properties in London, both the BBC understands owed by Mr Adcock. A man and a women where arrested at these addresses.

The Conservative Party has yet to make statement regarding the arrest.

Wednesday January 19th, 2022

New Hampshire Primary: Irving wins by nine points

Illinois Senator Jasper Irving swept to victory in the "Granite state" as the polls had predicted by his margin of victory of just under 9.50% was slightly lower than forecast, and indeed hoped for by his campaign.

Never the less it was a good night for Irving who told his supporters at a victory rally in Concord as he tried to move thoughts to a potential general election campaign against President Seaborn " We have showed that we can win election without hate, without setting our fellow Americans against each other. These results have showed that I am the best candidate to take on President Seaborn, but we should never forget that the President is our opponent, not our enemy, he isn't a communist trying to recreate the Soviet Union, as some would have you believe, he is a a fellow citizen, a good family man, who I happen to disagree with on policy".

As Iowa, Ohio Senator Ruth Norton-Stewart came in a strong second place, with Alan Duke finishing in third place, although he hold off the strong finish to the campaign of former Michigan Congressman Gus Edwards, who finished in a strong fourth place. Robert Royce was 2% behind Edwards, with Georgia Senator Charlie Forrester failing to even 2% of the vote.

The primary campaign moves into two contests, next Tuesday in Nevada and South Carolina.

Full results
20 Delegates

CandidatePopular Vote% Vote
Jasper Irving108,97636.05%
Ruth Norton-Stewart80,50226.63%
Alan Duke46,13615.26%
Gus Edwards33,94411.23%
Robert Royce27,3329.04%
Charlie Forrester5,1021.69%
Andrew Wu2100.07%
Alton Moore1050.03%
Total Vote: 302,307Margin: 28,474Margin: 9.42%
*Both Andrew Wu & Alton Moore remained on the ballot despite withdrawing from the race
Full Results of Iowa & New Hampshire

CandidatePopular Vote% VoteDelegates Won
Jasper Irving160,83528.80%20
Alan Duke148,11426.52%38
Ruth Norton-Stewart135,74924.30%
Gus Edwards47,7518.55%
Robert Royce45,2958.11%
Charlie Forrester12,5512.25%
Andrew Wu6,1551.10%
Ben Laurion1,5120.27%
Alton Moore5840.10%
Total Vote: 558,546Margin: 12,721Margin: 2.28%Margin: 18 Delegates
* Ben Laurion remained on the ballot in Iowa but had already withdrawn from the race
* Both Andrew Wu & Alton Moore withdrew from the race after Iowa but remained on the ballot in New Hampshire
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Thursday January 20th, 2022

MP charged and remaindered in custody
Conservatives remove party Whip

James Adcock, the Conservative MP for Carlisle who was arrested on Monday has been charged, the CPS has confirmed. Mr Adcock has been charged with tax evasion, fraud, bribery, false accounting, money laundering, three accounts of assault, five accounts of incitement of others to commit crimes and several breaches of local government Housing regulations. He appeared before Carlisle Magistrates' Court this morning and was remaindered into custody.

The Crown said because of the seriousness of the charges, that the MP, could attempt to jump bail if it had been granted. He will be serving his time on remand at the nearby Slade prison. As soon as the news was announced of the charges, the Conservative party announced that the party whip had been withdraw from Mr Adcock. Because he has not yet been convicted of any offence he would remain as an MP, although he is likely to come under pressure to resign his seat in the light of the seriousness and the number of the charges.
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Thursday January 20th, 2022

Latest Nevada & South Carolina Polling
Nevada (26 Dels)

  1. Norton-Stewart 29%
  2. Duke 24%
  3. Irving 13%
  4. Royce 12%
  5. Edwards 10%
  6. Forrester 6%
Undecided/Others: 6%

South Carolina (49 Dels)

  1. Duke 37%
  2. Norton-Stewart 28%
  3. Irving 17%
  4. Forrester 6%
  5. Royce 5%
  6. Edwards 2%
Undecided/Others: 5%
Is Seaborn going to name his new running mate at the convention, or before? I take it that CJ Cregg will not be allowed within 100 miles of the vetting process this time.
Is Seaborn going to name his new running mate at the convention, or before? I take it that CJ Cregg will not be allowed within 100 miles of the vetting process this time.

He's going to pick his running mate before the convention. We won't say when he will announce his choice at this juncture.

CJ (like Will) is current White House staffer and would have to resign her position in order to participate in the presidential campaign or take part in vetting candidates to serve on the Democratic ticket.

Duke: Seaborn's policies are "threats to American values", Irving is Seaborn's "willing stooge"

Thursday, January 20th, 2022

Former senator Alan Duke (R-OK) stepped up his rhetoric yet again, saying that the policies President Sam Seaborn has advocated are "threats [sic] to American values" and that his primary opponent, senator Jasper Irving (R-IL) is the president's "willing stooge."

Duke made the remarks at a campaign rally in Reno, Nevada today, specifically taking issue with the president's famous declaration that he would "get the guns" by enacting stronger gun control measures and proposals to create a universal healthcare system similar to ones that are in use across the rest of the developed world.

"What [Seaborn] has advocated are actually threats to America," Duke said. "They are an attempt to strip our citizens of their right to self-defense, of the right to choose their own doctor, and the right to worship in a way that aligns with Biblical values...There are even some in our own party, like the junior senator from Illinois, who are willing stooges to impose this type of centrally-planned, atheistic and distorted society on our people."

The remarks quickly drew condemnation from Democrats, notable Republicans, members of the media and many online. Senate Majority Leader Cody Riley (R-AL) said that Duke's remarks were "misguided and extreme" and called on him to "deescalate his rhetoric" while Irving demanded his opponent withdraw his remarks and apologize publicly to the president.

Some right-wing activists, however, gave cautious praise to Duke. Most notably, Fox News personality and former general Lloyd Pendleton said that Duke was "speaking truth to power", while congresswoman Carol Goodman (R-MO) refused to condemn Duke's remarks when asked during an appearance on a local Missouri radio station.



Hunter plans on really slacking off in final year of vice presidency

January 20, 2022

Bringing the list of senators up to 18 with two delegations listing the final ATL Presidents pro tempore to have not been listed thus far, and the first alphabetical member of the original 13 states to not yet have their delegation listed.
Lists of United States Senators (1985-present)
AL • AK • AZ • AR • CA • CO • CTDEFLGA • HI • ID • IL • IN • IAKS • KY • LA • ME • MD • MA • MI • MN • MS • MO • MT • NE • NV • NH • NJ • NM • NY • NC • ND • OH • OK • OR • PA • RI • SC • SD • TN • TX • UT • VT • VA • WA • WV • WI • WY

United States Senators from Arkansas
Class 2
1967-2015: Robert Miner (Republican)
Elections: 1966, 1972, 1978, 1984, 1990, 1996, 2002, 2008
2015-2027: Hubert "Arkansas" Smith (Democratic)
Elections: 2014, 2020

Class 3
1975-1999: Dale Bumpers (Democratic)
Elections: 1974, 1980, 1986, 1992
1999-2011: Howie Kim (Democratic)
Elections: 1998, 2004
2011-2023: Fletcher Carey (Republican)
Elections: 2010, 2016

I summarized Miner's story for his infobox. He succeeded Furman as PPT and lost re-election after a poor campaign and incidents where he appeared disoriented--although since the Democrats won control of the Senate that year, he would have been ousted as PPT anyways even if he had won. Miner is the longest-serving member of Congress (48 years!) in either OTL or ATL to lose his seat in a general election (Emmanuel Cellar left office after 49 years due to losing a primary nomination).

Bumpers is the last OTL senator to remain in the Senate, leaving office just weeks before Jed Bartlet moved into 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Kim is thus far the only Korean-American in either OTL or ATL, to serve in the Senate.

United States Senators from Maryland
Class 1
1983-2011: Sam Whiteside (Democratic)
Elections: 1982, 1988, 1994, 2000, 2006
2011-2013: Barry Goodwin (Democratic)
2013-2025: Cain McClelland (Democratic)
Elections: 2012, 2018

Class 3
1969-1987: Charles Mathias (Republican)
Elections: 1968, 1974, 1980
1987-2017: Dan Kalmbach (Republican)
Elections: 1986, 1992, 1998, 2004, 2010
2017-2023: Joe Derrick (Democratic)
Elections: 2016

Whiteside fell into a coma, but was ruled to have resigned his seat after his living will stating that he should be considered to have submitted his resignation if he were rendered permanently comatose was upheld by the courts. Goodwin, the former governor and the party's 1994 VP candidate, was chosen to replace him, but opted not to run for a term of his own. McClelland beat Andi Wyatt in the Democratic primary to succeed Goodwin, Wyatt's second unsuccessful attempt to make the leap to the Senate after being the final Democrat defeated by Dan Kalmbach in 2010.

Mathias is the OTL most recent Republican to represent Maryland in the Senate, so Kalmbach somehow winning five terms afterwards is a bit odd when viewed through an OTL lens. It's probably this that led him to make a bid for the White House in 1998 and was apparently on Eisenhower's shortlist for a running mate later that year (his colleague Robert Bennett of Alabama was chosen instead).

United States Senators from Washington
Class 1
1983-2025: William Wiley (Democratic)
Elections: 1982, 1988, 1994, 2000, 2006, 2012, 2018

Class 3
1975-2011: Tom Grissom (Democratic)
Elections: 1974, 1980, 1986, 1992, 1998, 2004
2011-2023: Andrew Howard (Democratic)
Elections: 2010, 2016

Wiley is a lion of the Senate. No, not like that. He served as PPT for only one term (2015 to 2017) and is currently in line to become PPT again if the Democrats (somehow) win control of the Senate back in 2022. He's easily the longest-serving African-American senator and is the highest-ranking African-American ever ITTL, having been third-in-line to the presidency for two years under Walken. He very narrowly (less than 6,000 votes) defeated current Secretary of the Interior Sean Boone for his seventh election victory in 2018 and will be a few weeks short of his 90th birthday when his current term ends on January 3, 2025.

With the retirement of Samuel Wilkinson (KS) and Clark Gibson (ID), Wiley will become the most senior senator in the next Congress. Wiley also served 10 years in the House prior to succeeding "the senator from Boeing" (ITTL, Scoop retired due to health problems that would eventually kill him rather than seek re-election in 1982), meaning that with Dean of the House Thom Grunder (D-MN)'s retirement, he will be the last member of Congress to have served during the Nixon and Ford administrations, and one of only three to have served during the Carter administration.

Andrew Howard, of course, is a member of the Howard family, a well-connected West Coast family. He has two cousins in the House of Representatives, both representing districts in California. Most notably, Eve Howard (CA-28) is currently the number two Democrat in the House, serving as House Minority Whip under Daniel Maddox (Sam Howard, who represents the 20th district is the other).
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Monday January 24th, 2022

James Adcock resigns as an MP

It has been confirmed in the last few minutes, that the Conservative MP for Carlisle, James Adcock has resigned his seat. Mr Adcock has charged last week with tax evasion, fraud, bribery, false accounting, money laundering, three accounts of assault, five accounts of incitement of others to commit crimes and several breaches of local government Housing regulations. He is currently on remand at Slade Prison in Cumbria.

The BBC understands that a letter was sent announcing his resignation from his solicitors. It also said that Mr Adcock "denies all the charges against him" but he cannot carry on as an MP "in the present circumstances". This comes after his son James jnr, and his wife Lyn have also been charged each with four counts of threatening behavior, harassment, bribery and obtaining money by deception. They have been remained on bail, and both ordered to surrender their passports.

Politically this means this four by-elections will now be held in the coming weeks, three in Conservative held seats, Bury North, Carlisle and Ilford North. Leeds Central is a Labour held seat.

Atlantis Cable News

Turkish military confirms two helicopters downed overnight

Akrotiri, Cyprus-
A spokesman for the Turkish Military has confirmed that 2 of their T-129 ATAK were shot down during operations in the Troodos Mountains. While nothing has been confirmed as of yet, sources are telling ACN that it is believed to be the result of shoulder-fired Air-To-Ground Missiles. With most of the Cypriot arsenal have either been expended or seized during the Turkish invasion, it is not clear if these alleged missiles are of Cypriot or of other origin. It has long been speculated that the EOKA-III fighters are being supplied by the Hellenic Army and Greek National Intelligence Service, though no direct proof or evidence has been seen as of yet.