The Giant’s Vigor: An early exit from the Great Depression

Chapter 10.5: Yearning to Breath Free

Chapter 10.5: Yearning to Breath Free​

Pittsburgh, 1933​

The clang of hammers and the buzz of saws filled the air as Jacob Miller wiped the sweat from his brow. He was grateful for the job with the National Reconstruction Administration (NRA), working on a project to build a new community center in the heart of Pittsburgh. The work was tough, but after years of struggling through the Great Depression, Jacob was just happy to have a steady paycheck again.

With a reliable income, Jacob finally felt confident enough to open a savings account at a local bank. At least his money was secure there nowadays, the boys in Washington would make him whole again if the bank failed or at least that's what Mr. Roosevelt said on the radio. He seemed the trustworthy sort and he was the one who landed Jacob this job so Jacob obliged him.

At home, Jacob's wife Sarah had been taking care of their young son Willie, who was now three years old. The steady income from Jacob's job allowed Sarah to focus on raising their son without the constant worry of where their next meal would come from. Maybe when Willie grew up some more they could play catch in the fields he was building.

Pittsburgh, 1934​

Jacob wasn't alone in the project, two of his coworkers from the Jones & Laughlin mill, Leonard and George, were in his group and they ate lunch together every day. They and most of the other guys in the 5th Park Platoon as they called themselves would make their own baseball team and play against other work teams in the city. They were far from good, but it was to battle the others with his comrades and it gave him something to do in his free time. It helped that his enormous size gave him an advantage over the others. Idleness was to be avoided at all costs, it reminded him too much of the bad years.

In July they were done with the fields, the buildings and even some roads and trees nearby. Many of the workers would stay on for the next project but Leonard, George and Jacob saw that the mill was hiring again and applied. Having been prior employees who knew their way around the machines helped them land the jobs and they were back to 1929, as if nothing had happened. They were making 60 cents an hour, less than the 70 they had before the layoffs, but bread was cheaper now and Jacob was just glad to be back at his old job.

Pittsburgh, 1935​

They had moved out of the Hooverville last year but with the birth of their daughter Patricia, the Millers wanted something bigger. There was a new NRA complex built nearby that they filled out an application for. The administrators would do 2 interviews with their family before accepting them on account of their good character and their stable non emergency job.

The apartment would be 600 square feet with a bathroom, two bedrooms, and a central living space with a kitchen, heater and room to eat or play. Outside there was a play structure a block away and the train was relatively close by which could bring Jacob to work.

Willie, now five years old, was growing into a lively and curious child. Jacob and Sarah took turns reading to him each night, determined to give their son the best possible start in life despite the hardships they had faced. He enjoyed climbing up the mass of wood and steel with the other kids and was almost ready to start school. Things were looking up for the Millers.

Gary, Indiana, 1933​

Margaret watched as her older brother Sam packed his bags, ready to leave for his new assignment with the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC). At 18 years old, Sam had been struggling to find work in their hometown of Gary, Indiana, and the CCC offered a glimmer of hope during these dark times.

As the economy slowly improved, Margaret's family's grocery store also experienced increased sales. Despite the additional work needed, Margaret spent more time to focus on her studies. She had recently discovered a passion for psychology and was excelling in her high school classes. Of course, her parents also made her study Hebrew and Jewish law every Sunday and after school on Tuesday. It wasn't as interesting but she paid enough attention to receive praise from her rabbi.

Southern Illinois, 1933​

Sam arrived in southern Illinois, where he would spend the next six months working with the CCC to plant shelterbelts and prevent soil erosion in the drought-stricken region. The work was hard, but Sam found a sense of purpose and camaraderie among his fellow CCC workers.

As he learned new skills and gained discipline, Sam couldn't help but feel a sense of pride in his contributions to the nation's recovery efforts. He knew that the work he was doing would help protect the land and the livelihoods of countless farmers in the region.

Gary, Indiana, 1934​

After completing his stint with the CCC, Sam returned home to Gary with newfound confidence and determination. He quickly found work as a construction worker on an NRA housing project, putting the skills he had learned in the CCC to good use.

Sam's income provided a much-needed boost to the family's finances, allowing Margaret to continue focusing on her education. She was thriving in her high school classes and had begun to dream of attending college to study psychology.

As the housing project progressed, Sam felt a sense of pride in his work, knowing that he was helping to build a better future for families in his community. He loved watching the buildings slowly going up day after day as they completed each step. Maybe someday he could be the designer that everyone was dancing to the tune of.
 

Some cool media I’ve been consulting​

A YouTube channel that went week by week through WW2 (I haven’t watched most of their videos but I’ve watched a lot):

Video on McNair:

Video on US armored doctrine in WW2:

Pretty interesting video on how foremen should deal with female workers in 1944:

Book on war planning at the time:

Book on American logistics, chapter 1 deals with mobilization:

Book on Wedemeyer’s Victory Program, the guiding grand strategy of America in WW2:

Guide to the American government in 1945:

The 1930 and 1940 US censuses:
My favorite is this part on page 31 of the pdf: https://www2.census.gov/library/publications/decennial/1940/population-volume-3/33973538v3p1ch3.pdf

A general aggregator of economic data, has some data series going back to the 1700s in England and quite a few to the 1800s in the US:

Books that aren’t free online (depends)​

Government owned factories:
Creative Destructive, Mark Wilson

A quantitative look at what caused the Great Depression:
The Midas Paradox, Scott Sumner

A look at the nazi economy:
The Wages of Destruction, Adam Tooze
 
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The 1930 and 1940 US censuses:
My favorite is this part on page 30 of the pdf: https://www2.census.gov/library/publications/decennial/1940/population-volume-3/33973538v3p1ch3.pdf
What about it?
Table:
"PERCENT DISTRIBUTION BY WAGE OR SALARY INCOME RECEIVED IN 1939, FOR ALL EXPERIENCED PERSONS IN THE LABOR FORCE (EXCEPT PERSONS ON EMERGENCY WORK) IN 1940, AND
FOR THOSE WHO WORKED 12 MONTHS IN 1939, BY SELECTED OCCUPATION AND SEX, FOR THE UNITED STATES BY REGIONS"
Subtable:
"EXPERIENCED PERSONS IN THE LABOR FORCE (EXCEPT PERSONS ON EMERGENCY WORK) IN 1940 WHO WORKED 12 MONTHS IN 1939"
Region:
"THE WEST"
Sex:
"Female"

What's particularly interesting here?
 
What about it?
Table:
"PERCENT DISTRIBUTION BY WAGE OR SALARY INCOME RECEIVED IN 1939, FOR ALL EXPERIENCED PERSONS IN THE LABOR FORCE (EXCEPT PERSONS ON EMERGENCY WORK) IN 1940, AND
FOR THOSE WHO WORKED 12 MONTHS IN 1939, BY SELECTED OCCUPATION AND SEX, FOR THE UNITED STATES BY REGIONS"
Subtable:
"EXPERIENCED PERSONS IN THE LABOR FORCE (EXCEPT PERSONS ON EMERGENCY WORK) IN 1940 WHO WORKED 12 MONTHS IN 1939"
Region:
"THE WEST"
Sex:
"Female"

What's particularly interesting here?
Oh wait it’s 31, it with 32 list all the industries in America and the number of people working in them.
 
Chapter 11: Balance of Payments Uber Alles

Chapter 11: Balance of Payments Uber Alles​

Germany, 1933​


In November 1932, as Roosevelt won near universal acclaim at the ballot box, Adolf Hitler would be appointed chancellor of the Weimar Republic. He would take dictatorial power over Germany and proclaim the third German Reich. Other political parties would be banned and the German labor unions reconstituted under one state controlled union, the Deutsche Arbeitsfront (DAF) to reduce labor agitation and further crack down on leftist organizing.

In the latter half of the 1920s, Germany had been able to pay its war debts through a massive influx of American capital. In spring 1931, Germany had 8.4 billion Reichsmarks (1933's GDP would be 43 billion Reichsmarks) worth of debt owed to the United States, all the dollars flowing in could in turn be used to pay the 2 billion Reichsmarks a year required by the Young Plan.

This capital influx would begin its end in 1928 and continue to dry up as the Great Depression started. To pay its debts, Germany needed to raise its stock of foreign currency in a new way, and so it turned to protectionism to create a 2.8 billion Reichsmark surplus in 1931.

The collapse of the the German financial system in July of 1931 would lead to the nationalization of many banks and the suspension of convertibility between Reichsmarks and gold. They would keep their prior value but

...from the summer of 1931 onwards private holdings of foreign currency in Germany were nationalized. Any resident who received foreign currency in any form was required to exchange it for Reichsmarks provided by the Reichsbank. Anyone requiring foreign currency could obtain it only by application to the Reichsbank and all such applications were subject to severe rationing. Foreign currency was allocated to importers as a fixed percentage of the volume of their foreign transactions in the twelve months prior to the crisis.​

Rising protectionism around the globe would require the harsh import controls to maintain Germany's surplus needed to maintain its debt payments.

On 20 September, after weeks of severe speculation against the pound, Britain followed Germany in abandoning the gold standard. Unlike the Reichsbank, however, the Bank of England chose to leave the gold standard not by suspending free convertibility, but by abandoning the fixed peg against gold. Sterling continued to be bought and sold freely, but its value was no longer guaranteed against gold. Within weeks the world's leading trading currency had plunged against the Reichsmark by 20 per cent. The anchor of the global financial system had torn loose. Britain's abandonment of gold turned a severe recession into a profound crisis of the international economy. By the end of September, twelve countries had followed Britain in allowing their currencies to float freely. Eleven more countries had devalued their exchange rates whilst retaining a gold peg; whilst those that stayed on gold at their old parities, like Germany, France and the Netherlands, had no option but to defend their balance of payments by adopting draconian restrictions on currency convertibility and trade...​
The hard-won trade surplus of 2.8 billion Reichsmarks in 1931 was slashed within a year to no more than a few hundred million Reichsmarks, and even this precarious balance could only be maintained by further savage reductions in imports. By the spring of 1932, the allocation of hard currency to German importers was reduced to half the level that had been available prior to the crisis.​

- Adam Tooze, Wages of Destruction

Germany had engaged in an incredibly destructive period of purposeful deflation in order to maintain its debt payments and avoid currency devaluation with respect to gold or other currencies, a widely reviled policy after the disastrous hyperinflation of 1923. Complicating matters was the lack of devaluation of the Franc or the Dollar as German industrial debt payments to its American creditors were denominated in dollars. If Germany were to follow the Sterling as England suggested, its payments to America and France would increase by 20%, something it could ill afford.

It was against this balance of payments crisis that Hitler took power. With the intransigence of Germany's creditors in France (who had reached out to Germany under Briand but was met with the extremely aggressive action of Bruening's pursuit of a custom unions with Austria) and the US (who was unwilling to change the debt burden of France in exchange for lighter German war debts but continued American servicing) to renegotiate debt, Germans became increasingly fond of the Nazis call for a repudiation of the treaty of Versailles and all war debts.

When Hitler took power in November, 5.9 million Germans were unemployed, slightly less than the 6.0 million from the November of the year prior. The slump was no longer getting worse at least and Schleicher had already authorized hundreds of millions of Reichsmarks in public works spending to put Germany back to work. The Nazis would continue this policy, using the money already raised to fund roads, often in the eastern reaches of Germany as they could be used for troop movements and logistics.

Above all, economic revitalization was second to rearmament. Without a strong army, France and Poland could roll into Berlin if Germany acted too aggressively. In addition, there could be no lebensraum or purging of the Judeo-Bolshevik menace without a military able to roll on Paris on Moscow.

'The future of Germany depends exclusively and only on the reconstruction of the Wehrmacht. All other tasks must cede precedence to the task of rearmament ... In any case, I take the view that in future in case of conflict between the demands of the Wehrmacht and demands for other purposes, the interests of the Wehrmacht must in every case have priority.​

- Adolf Hitler

As Roosevelt took office the United States was swept by a financial panic which forced him to impose a nationwide bank closure and restrict the export of capital. On 9 March 1933 the United States unilaterally suspended gold convertibility and allowed the dollar to depreciate. Over the next four months the dollar fell by 30 per cent against the Reichsmark. Replicated across the world this delivered a devastating shock to what remained of the international system of fixed exchange rates. The dollar devaluation again faced Germany with a choice, whether or not to devalue. If it did not follow the dollar off gold, Germany would be left completely uncompetitive in every export market in the world. On the other hand, the dollar's devaluation also brought a huge windfall, by reducing the Reichsmark value of the debts Germany owed to the United States.​

- Tooze (Altered)

Hitler however, staked his reputation on not devaluing the Reichsmark. The disaster of 1923 would be avoided come hell or high water. Foreign currencies would instead be raised through export subsidies funded from a revenue tax on German manufacturers. Attempts were made to reduce the debt burden by purchasing German debt at a steep discount in foreign markets due to fears of a German default. However, this program would use too much currency that could instead be used on essential imports such as iron ore, oil or food and was thus canceled.

While extensive controls were being put on international trade, domestic spending in Germany would explode. Over a billion dollars would be allocated in 1933 to public works. Large amounts of government spending, pressure from Nazi bureacrats and the end of the deflationary policy of Bruening would lead to 2 million workers regaining employment by the start of 1934. This however was where civilian public works ended. By September, officials would claim that they were fully booked on projects and subsidies for non federal government works would be cut 20%. Rearmament was all that was left and it would eat the German economy.
 
This pace is somewhat unsustainable. I'm probably going to be forced into either no longer writing a chapter a day or cutting the length of them to refer to more specific events. It's quite hard to juggle 1 to 2 thousand words a day along with all the research I'm trying to do. Yesterday I picked up Wages of Destruction and made it through 150 pages over the last 24 hours which is why I have so many Tooze quotes today but it didn't leave much time for writing. Maybe I'll have built up a big enough repertoire of information to crank out chapters fairly easily in a couple weeks but I'm not in that position at the moment.
 
Considering how important the economy is in, well everything ever, economic history really doesn't get the attention it deserves, especially on this site. Happy to finally see one!
 
This pace is somewhat unsustainable. I'm probably going to be forced into either no longer writing a chapter a day or cutting the length of them to refer to more specific events. It's quite hard to juggle 1 to 2 thousand words a day along with all the research I'm trying to do. Yesterday I picked up Wages of Destruction and made it through 150 pages over the last 24 hours which is why I have so many Tooze quotes today but it didn't leave much time for writing. Maybe I'll have built up a big enough repertoire of information to crank out chapters fairly easily in a couple weeks but I'm not in that position at the moment.
Hello,

I do not think you are under any obligation to produce chapters in a short period of time, at least on my part. Writing of this nature should be a worthwhile endeavor, the pace should only be dictated by your rate of creativity. It should remain a pleasure to write, not ending up being a chore. So, proceed at your pace and you should be able to maintain the quality of your writing, which I do enjoy.
 
I am hoping for a Georgist moment here, or perhaps some quasi-Georgism like that proposed national property tax. Was that an actual thing? I noticed this WW2-era proposed amendment for LVT (not officially proposed to the States, just an idea): LVT link. Could that be it?

In any case, I love the economic alt-history timeline. Interesting counter-factuals going on here. Are you doing synthetic controls for TTL vs OTL?
 
Hello,

I do not think you are under any obligation to produce chapters in a short period of time, at least on my part. Writing of this nature should be a worthwhile endeavor, the pace should only be dictated by your rate of creativity. It should remain a pleasure to write, not ending up being a chore. So, proceed at your pace and you should be able to maintain the quality of your writing, which I do enjoy.
It’s not a burden and I am properly pacing myself, I’ve just caught up on my backlog of knowledge, notes and writing and am announcing a tactical reorganization. I would not be voraciously consuming history if I didn’t find this enjoyable though I appreciate the sentiment.

The next couple days are probably going to consist of me rewriting stuff to improve cohesion, standardize syntax and making the R markdown document more
modifiable in case I want to change numbers around.

I was also wondering whether people would like shorter daily chapters or less frequent but meatier ones. Thoughts?
 
I am hoping for a Georgist moment here, or perhaps some quasi-Georgism like that proposed national property tax. Was that an actual thing? I noticed this WW2-era proposed amendment for LVT (not officially proposed to the States, just an idea): LVT link. Could that be it?
The national property tax is probably not going to happen at least during WW2. The national property tax was an actual thing that existed, largest in the civil war and a bit beyond that but it was not ad valorem.

Technically, the income tax amendment would allow the federal government to charge a national income tax on imputed land rents so no amendment is needed. We’ll see about whether imputed rent is legally classified as regular income during WW2.

In terms of post war Georgism, I think I’ll have William Vickrey play a larger role but that is pretty far into the future.

In any case, I love the economic alt-history timeline. Interesting counter-factuals going on here. Are you doing synthetic controls for TTL vs OTL?
I’ve mostly just been transcribing a data series and then eyeballing the changes I want to make to it for the graphs. Fisher had a pretty good model for the Great Depression that broke down post July 1933 (when NIRA came into play) which I could more directly copy but I’ve already internalized its general guide (that recovery would be finished sometime between 1934 and 1935).
 
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To elaborate @SashaBonaparte148, the sixteenth amendment states:

The Congress shall have power to lay and collect taxes on incomes, from whatever source derived, without apportionment among the several States, and without regard to any census or enumeration.​
All sources of income whether labor, capital, land or entrepreneurship can be taxed at will by congress even if they are imputed. Of course, the four horsemen might strike down such a law but they will be gone by the time taxing imputed income becomes especially valuable (as funding for the war or as a stick to get people to move where the munitions factories are).
 
Thinking over the accelerated USN program, is that going to see a response from the other naval powers?

France was fairly content to play second fiddle in this realm.

Britain did have some view of the USN as a competitor in this timeframe, whether or not they have the money to respond I genuinely don't know.

Japan obviously won't like it, but to my understanding their mobilisation for war was already running red hot and essentially unsustainable. If they can figure out to bring construction forward though, I suspect they will.

Can't imagine it prompting much from Italy and Germany, unless there's any flow on effects to French and British shipbuilding. If there is, then maybe?
 
Thinking over the accelerated USN program, is that going to see a response from the other naval powers?

France was fairly content to play second fiddle in this realm.

Britain did have some view of the USN as a competitor in this timeframe, whether or not they have the money to respond I genuinely don't know.

Japan obviously won't like it, but to my understanding their mobilisation for war was already running red hot and essentially unsustainable. If they can figure out to bring construction forward though, I suspect they will.

Can't imagine it prompting much from Italy and Germany, unless there's any flow on effects to French and British shipbuilding. If there is, then maybe?
Germany and Japan were running about as fast as they could manage iirc. I don't know enough about British naval history to know whether they would respond and in what ways but I will look into it soon :). If you have a take on the matter, I'm happy to hear it.
 
Chapter 12: The First Five Year Plan

Chapter 12: The First Five Year Plan​

Stalin's Rise to Power​

Joseph Stalin, born Ioseb Jughashvili, rose to power in the Soviet Union following the death of Vladimir Lenin in 1924. As the General Secretary of the Communist Party, Stalin formed strategic alliances and exploited his position to outmaneuver his rivals. Initially, Stalin aligned himself with Lev Kamenev and Grigory Zinoviev against Leon Trotsky, forming a "troika" that controlled the party leadership after Lenin's death. This alliance allowed Stalin to consolidate power and isolate Trotsky, who was seen as his main rival.

Once Trotsky was marginalized, Stalin turned against his former allies, Kamenev and Zinoviev, and sided with Nikolai Bukharin, a prominent Bolshevik leader, to undermine their influence within the party. As General Secretary, Stalin had the power to appoint loyal supporters to key positions within the Communist Party, such as in the regional party committees, the Secretariat, and the Politburo. This allowed him to build a strong base of support and control the party's decision-making processes.

Stalin positioned himself as the true heir to Lenin's legacy, despite Lenin's concerns about Stalin's power and his recommendation to remove him from the position of General Secretary. Stalin used his influence to suppress Lenin's "Testament," which criticized him, and promoted his own image as a close associate and follower of Lenin. Through tactical maneuvering, Stalin presented himself as a moderate and built temporary alliances to isolate his opponents one by one. He used his position to control the agenda of party meetings, manipulate voting, and remove rivals from their positions of power.

By 1928, Stalin had successfully outmaneuvered his opponents and consolidated his control over the Communist Party, enabling him to become the undisputed leader of the Soviet Union and implement his vision for the country's economic and political future.

The Economy in 1928​

In the late 1920s, the Soviet Union's economy was primarily agrarian, with a large proportion of the population engaged in small-scale farming. The agricultural sector faced numerous challenges, including low productivity, outdated farming techniques, and limited access to modern equipment and infrastructure. The New Economic Policy (NEP), implemented by Lenin in 1921, had allowed for a mixed economy with some private enterprise coexisting alongside state-owned industries. However, the NEP was viewed by Stalin and his supporters as a temporary measure that failed to address the fundamental issues hindering the country's economic development.

One of the major challenges faced by the Soviet economy during this period was the Scissors Crisis, which emerged in the early 1920s. The crisis was characterized by a widening disparity between the prices of industrial goods and agricultural products, resembling the opening blades of a pair of scissors when plotted on a graph. This disparity was caused by factors such as the state's pricing policy favoring industrial goods, the inefficiency of state-owned industries leading to higher production costs, and low agricultural productivity. As a result, peasants found it increasingly difficult to purchase industrial goods with their agricultural income, leading to reduced incentives for selling their produce to the state.

In addition to the agricultural sector, the Soviet Union's industrial sector was relatively underdeveloped compared to Western nations. The country relied heavily on imports for machinery, equipment, and consumer goods, while its exports primarily consisted of raw materials and agricultural products. This trade imbalance, coupled with limited foreign currency reserves, hindered the acquisition of capital and technology necessary for industrialization. Moreover, foreign investors were hesitant to commit resources to the Soviet economy due to political instability, nationalization policies, and the uncertain legal framework for private property rights.

Cities experienced shortages of food and consumer goods, while rural areas suffered from a lack of investment in infrastructure and social services.

Stalin advocated for a radical transformation of the Soviet economy through central planning, state investment in heavy industries, and the collectivization of agriculture in order to cause rapid industrialization. This industrialization was necessary to modernize the economy, increase production, and establish a self-sufficient socialist system. Stalin viewed this transformation as essential for the Soviet Union to compete with capitalist countries and withstand external threats in order to lay the groundwork for a communist society. A such, no price was too great in the pursuit of his Five Year Plans for the economy (a concept he stole from Trotsky in 1926 after making fun of it).

Industrial Development​

The First Five-Year Plan (1928-1932) focused on the rapid development of heavy industry, with the State Planning Committee (Gosplan) setting ambitious production targets for key sectors such as metallurgy, machine-building, and energy production. Gosplan, established in 1921, was responsible for creating and implementing comprehensive economic plans that allocated resources, set prices, and determined production quotas for all sectors of the economy.

The Soviet government would engage in major projects such as the Dneprostroi hydroelectric power station on the Dnieper River in Ukraine. Construction began in 1927 and was completed in 1932, making it the largest hydroelectric power station in Europe at the time. With a capacity of 558 MW, Dneprostroi provided electricity to the surrounding industrial areas and contributed to the Soviet Union's goal of electrification.

The Soviet government also invested heavily in the expansion of transportation infrastructure, particularly railways. The Turkestan-Siberian Railway, completed in 1930, connected Central Asia with Siberia, facilitating the transport of raw materials and manufactured goods between the regions. This 1,445 km railway was constructed using the labor of over 50,000 workers and was completed in just 18 months.

To support the rapid industrialization drive, the Soviet government put their weight towards ideas such as the Stakhanovite movement, which encouraged workers to exceed production quotas through socialist competition. The movement was named after Alexey Stakhanov, a coal miner who allegedly mined 102 tons of coal in a single shift, setting a new record. The government used Stakhanov's example to promote increased productivity and labor discipline across all industries.

However, the breakneck pace of industrialization led to significant challenges. The Soviet Union faced shortages of skilled labor and technical expertise, as the education system struggled to keep up with the demands of industrial growth. The focus on heavy industry led to imbalances in the economy, with the neglect of consumer goods and agriculture resulting in shortages and a decline in living standards. Workers faced harsh conditions, with long hours, insufficient safety measures, and inadequate housing.

While the Great Depression had negatively impacted industry in most of the world, the Soviet Union was faced with the prospect of huge gluts of foreign industrial experts it could hire to provide human capital. Built between 1929 and 1934 in the Urals, the Magnitogorsk steel complex was modeled off of Gary, Indiana using hundreds of foreign experts and the American consulting company Arthur McKee & Co.

The city was plagued with shoddy construction, extreme weather and mass deaths. A rushed dam was too low and another one had to be built. Blast furnace one needed rebuilding and roads remained unpaved for years. 10,000 people would die in the first 5 years of construction as food was scarce and workers faced -20 degree weather with harsh steppe winds.

The overcrowded, mostly dirt-floored tents and ramshackle barracks in which early residents lived were buffeted by blizzards in the winter and dust storms in the summer. Rats, bed bugs and lice tormented their occupants. Other newcomers reverted to rural ways, building mud huts dug deep into the ground.​
- Alec Luhn, The Secret History of Magnitogorsk, Russia's Steel City

The foreign experts however would get a fairly lavish treatment. A separate town would be built for them with much of the amenities they were used to in America. After their departure, Soviet bureaucrats would take up residence in their quarters.

Magnitogorsk became a symbol of Soviet industrialization, producing steel, iron ore, and coal with 50,000 workers. By the end of the 1930s, Magnitogorsk produced 40% of the Soviet Union's total iron output.

Agricultural Collectivization​

The collectivization of agriculture in the Soviet Union under Stalin's leadership was a complex and brutal process that aimed to transform the country's agricultural system and rural society. The motivations behind collectivization were rooted in the challenges faced by the Soviet government in the late 1920s, including the grain procurement crisis, the need to support rapid industrialization, and the desire to eliminate the perceived threat of the kulaks, who were seen as capitalist elements in the countryside.

The grain procurement crisis emerged as a result of the New Economic Policy's (NEP) focus on small-scale private farming, which led to a decrease in the amount of grain the state could collect from peasants. This crisis threatened the government's ability to feed the growing urban population and generate revenue from agricultural exports to finance industrialization. Additionally, the Soviet leadership believed that the kulaks, the wealthier peasants who had benefited from the NEP, were hoarding grain and undermining the state's efforts to build socialism in the countryside.

To address these issues, the Soviet government initially pursued a policy of voluntary collectivization, using propaganda and incentives to encourage peasants to join collective farms (kolkhozy). However, by June 1929, only 4% of peasant households had been collectivized, prompting Stalin to abandon the voluntary approach in favor of forced collectivization.

The forced collectivization campaign, which began in late 1929, involved the expropriation of kulak land, livestock, and property. The dekulakization campaign targeted kulaks and their families, subjecting them to arrest, deportation to remote regions, or execution. This campaign aimed to eliminate the kulaks as a class and seize their assets for the benefit of the collective farms. The Soviet government also established state-owned farms (sovkhozy) alongside the kolkhozy to further centralize control over agriculture.

Forced collectivization met with significant resistance from peasants, who engaged in acts of defiance such as slaughtering their livestock and destroying their property to prevent it from being seized by the state. Despite this resistance, the Soviet government's coercive measures succeeded in collectivizing a large portion of the countryside. By 1933, over 60% of peasant households were collectivized, and 99% of agricultural land was under state control.

The consequences of collectivization were severe and far-reaching. In the short term, agricultural production declined sharply due to the disruption caused by the collectivization process, the loss of livestock, and the resistance of peasants.

Worsening matters was the Soviet need to import industrial machines for Stalin's five year plans. In order to maintain a sustainable balance of payments, grain exports would dramatically increase. Where 1928 and 1929 had a couple hundred thousand tons of grain exported, 1930 and 1931 exported around 5 million tons and even 1932 and 1933 hovered around 2 million tons of grain exported, primarily to the UK and Germany.

This decline in output, combined with the government's aggressive grain procurement policies, led to a devastating famine in 1932-1933, which was particularly severe in Ukraine and Kazakhstan. Around 4 million people would die in Ukraine with millions more undergoing bouts of malnutrition and starvation.

To escape death by starvation, people in the villages ate anything that was edible: grass, acorns, even cats and dogs. Contemporary Soviet police archives contain descriptions of the immense suffering and despair of Ukrainian farmers, including instances of lawlessness, theft, lynching, and even cannibalism.​
- The University of Minnesota's Holocaust and Genocide Studies Department
 
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Despite New York being the originator of the NRA, Chicago would prove to be the biggest recipient of its new architecture. A massive 1320 acre project would be undertaken following North Clark Street to W Irving Park Road which would house 130,000 people and cost 112 million dollars when it was completed in 1937. It would be paid for through a mix of private and public funding with public funding more involved at the start in acquiring all of the land. Sales would recoup 93 million despite the government retaining half of the housing stock.

Between this and Cermak doing his best to finish the 1909 Burnham Plan it seems Chicago is experiencing something of a renaissance... even if it's at the cost of a lot of angry homeowners and urban renewal. The Clark Street development especially is giving me vibes from social housing in Vienna.

The main effect of this is that regardless of what post war architecture looks like, there’s a giant housing boom in the 30s that didn’t exist OTL. A lot of 1950s suburbanization was due to a housing shortage caused by the Great Depression/WW2 and exacerbated by subsidized mortgages. Postwar, other countries might want to copy the American model as they rebuild.
It's such an important point I feel stupid for not having fully considered it before. Yes I knew about the lack of recovery in business investment during the 1930s, and then in the 40s you have the war which means much of the civilian economy stops existing in a way we'd recognize. But the sum total is that, by 46, you've had more than a decade and a half in underinvestment in housing to a fairly substantiable degree...

Yeah, yeah, I can see it. As you've said, this won't stop suburbanization given it's a pretty reasonable preference, but I hadn't realized just how dilapidated a lot of the urban housing stock was getting by the late 40s. The stars really did align for the suburban boom.

As Roosevelt took office the United States was swept by a financial panic which forced him to impose a nationwide bank closure and restrict the export of capital. On 9 March 1933 the United States unilaterally suspended gold convertibility and allowed the dollar to depreciate. Over the next four months the dollar fell by 30 per cent against the Reichsmark. Replicated across the world this delivered a devastating shock to what remained of the international system of fixed exchange rates. The dollar devaluation again faced Germany with a choice, whether or not to devalue. If it did not follow the dollar off gold, Germany would be left completely uncompetitive in every export market in the world. On the other hand, the dollar's devaluation also brought a huge windfall, by reducing the Reichsmark value of the debts Germany owed to the United States.
- Tooze (Altered)

Really do love the use of altered Tooze quotes here. Is the payments crisis somehow even worse for Germany here? Given higher American inflation/depreciation and its knock on effects, seems like it'll have put even more pressure on the Reichsbank than OTL.

And in terms of pace, by all means slow down as required! This is really good work, we can wait a bit for an update.
 
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