Sequel de Mayo (Cinco de Mayo, Vol. II)

[KingSweden24]

The difference in that in the 21st century is that a lot of the High Quality coal from Wyoming and Colorado is now extracted Open Pit, which allows more Machine usage. But as best as I can tell, the CSA has no more than 10-12% the OTL USA Coal. And the US wouldn't be pressed for Coal even if it couldn't use any Confederate mines.

OTL, Mexico has always been a net Coal importer, and I'm guessing that may actually be slightly worse iTTL with the higher amount of industry.

Mexico’s precarious coal situation (until oil-fired utility scale energy becomes more economical) is actually a good hook for them wanting to peace out of the war with Kentucky almost entirely lost to the CSA

They probably did say something against Liberal corruption scandals and have most likely attacked Liberals especially in the eastern half of the party, it's just not really relevant to the overall conversation. This is really selective reasoning you're using, unless you're just shitposting which I respect greatly. But otherwise I would say you have a misunderstanding of socialism/trade unionism/entryism and that the "only talk about hating the Liberal party" bit stops being charming and just becomes repetitive after a while.

Think of it more as a user-created meme in a thread/TL with dozens of memes, the least clever of which are of my own creation

 

[Curtain Jerker]

They probably did say something against Liberal corruption scandals and have most likely attacked Liberals especially in the eastern half of the party, it's just not really relevant to the overall conversation. This is really selective reasoning you're using, unless you're just shitposting which I respect greatly. But otherwise I would say you have a misunderstanding of socialism/trade unionism/entryism and that the "only talk about hating the Liberal party" bit stops being charming and just becomes repetitive after a while.

I've talked about tons of things, my last two posts in this thread are about Chile and the CSA. You accused me of "selective reasoning" and then can't be bothered to literally scroll up on this page, which if you did it would show you that I post about lots of stuff.

Think of it more as a user-created meme in a thread/TL with dozens of memes, the least clever of which are of my own creation

Don't quite get what this is supposed to mean either but whatever.

 

[KingSweden24]

"...remarkable speed with which Brazil's domestic situation deteriorated between August and November of 1915. The failed counteroffensive on the heels of Argentina' Repulsa had left Fonseca perhaps more exposed than ever to his political (and, crucially, typically civilian or Naval) critics in Brazil but yet still hugely influential with the press. Pinheiro Machado had little appetite to split his threadbare conservative coalition in two by sacking him, but liberals and naval officers alike had vehemently turned against Fonseca's strategic thinking and calls to end the war were finally mainstream, despite continued raids on opposition press by military police for "defeatism" or "sedition."

The inability to establish a firm grip of the far bank of the Parana in June and early July was a potentially fatal mishap, however. In late July, the United States delivered two additional light cruisers to the Argentine Navy as a lease, and buffed up the numbers of American vessels moored off of Mar de Plata; if a second Brazilian attempt to seize the River Plate had been highly unlikely since the late October of 1913, it was now virtually entirely foreclosed upon. In mid-August, a full division of American expeditionaries fresh from Chile arrived in Buenos Aires in a support role, and thanks to Argentina's now-famously poor operational security, Brazil was well aware that the Axis Powers intended to increase this number to closer to fifty thousand by year-end and possibly a hundred thousand by the middle of 1916, provided offensives in the Confederacy and Mexico went as planned. News of the liquidation and collapse of Centroamerica as August turned to September and the hurricane season disrupting Mexican abilities to defend their sea lanes created a sense of despondency at the Imperial Admiralty, where Dom Augusto Leopoldo - head of the Navy and the Emperor's influential cousin - for the first time advocated a "real peace."

The sense was growing amongst Fonseca's enemies and even with Emperor Luis himself that Brazil was quite possibly at its high-water mark. It had not meaningfully advanced in Argentinean territory in well over a year and had secured its primary strategic goal of vassalizing Uruguay, but now at the cost of Chile as a functional ally and with hundreds of thousands of men dead in vain offensives. Augusto Leopoldo pointed out that, again thanks to intercepts of Argentinean communications, there were no immediate plans for Argentina to attack across the river until they could adequately resupply their forces and depend upon American (and, possibly but less likely, Peruvian) reinforcements and equipment. At the earliest, a late summer attack in February, but clear-eyed Brazilian generals such as Isidoro Dias Lopes expected the coming Axis offensive to occur likelier in March or even April, meaning Brazil had as much as six months of summer to either attack or prepare, and neither option seemed likely to produce the results Fonseca demanded. A two-year stalemate, then, seemed like it would most probably produce a third year of the same, until the Americans finally just sank Augusto Leopoldo's prized fleet (having already destroyed the Rio de Janeiro at Hilton Head Island) and left Brazil supine to further attacks.

Fonseca would have none of it, declaring that Argentina's struggles to produce sufficient equipment and sustain offensives [1] was a sign of the decadent weakness of their progressive republic. The air cover used in the last two offensives by Brazil had done real damage to Argentine defenses and he began eyeing another attack around Christmas that would finally break through at Santa Fe and put Brazilian forces on the road to Buenos Aires for good. Dias Lopes and several younger, more politically ambitious junior officers such as Bertoldo Klinger and Euclides Figueiredo reluctantly began drawing up plans both for such an offensive and, potentially, for a putsch to secure the capital if it were to fail, with Lopes informing Klinger personally that this was the "last offensive" and that there would be peace in 1916 one way or the other. A political military was, it turned out, not solely an invention of Fonseca.

The looming hour of the putative offensive in late November or early December was scrambled on September 8th, however, during Pinheiro Machado's visit with veterans in Rio de Janeiro a day before the two-year anniversary of the start of the war. As he was greeting the discharged soldiers, many of whom were missing limbs, digits and eyes, a man ran up behind him and shot him four times in the back, including once at the base of his skull. The Prime Minister died nearly instantly, the first major Brazilian political figure assassinated since the bombing murder of Emperor Pedro III nearly sixteen years earlier, and with his death sent shockwaves through Brazil. There had been no protagonist of wartime Brazilian politics as close to Fonseca as Pinheiro Machado and so there was a huge gap to fill. A few years earlier, Fonseca likely could have named his preferred candidate to the Emperor and had such a choice rubber-stamped. In September of 1915, though, with his braggadocio and ideological intensity having worn thin, there were more constituencies that Luis had to consider, and thus the conservative-liberal technocrat, abolitionist and former Finance Minister Ruy Barbosa was appointed as a caretaker.

Historians have generally disagreed about the exact impact of Barbosa's brief ministry. His previous service in earlier Brazilian governments had been middling and he was near the end of his career, thus inspiring little opposition from those who were worried about an ambitious foil to their own ends. He and Fonseca did not get on well, but Barbosa surprised observers by not pushing back particularly hard on Fonseca's goals and indeed Barbosa's resignation in November, just two months on the job, was as much due to Fonseca's declining political fortunes as it was his inability to stabilize Brazil's spiraling wartime economy, which during the spring and early summer at the end of 1915 was starting to reveal just how dire it was as European loans started to finally dry up once it was clear after the Mexican defeats at Los Pasos and Cozumel and the chaos that erupted in Mexico City during October that the Bloc Sud was about to be cloven in half along the western Caribbean.

Eventually, in early November, the Conservatives revolted after Klinger was forced to lead a division into Sao Paolo to put down a violent worker's strike and Barbosa resigned, exhausted and unwilling to manage party politics while trying to coordinate the war effort. In his place was put Epitacio Pessoa, a staunch conservative and unabashed racist who nonetheless was skeptical of Fonseca and was, as a native of Paraiba, from the Northeast rather than the oligarchy-dominated provinces of Sao Paolo or Minas Gerais that typically dominated Congress. In this sense he was a curious Prime Minister - more pro-slavery and pro-Confederate than Pinheiro Machado had been, but also less tied into the Uruguayan and Argentine obsessions of the landowner class of the Southeast that had helped trigger the war...."

- War in the Cone

[1] Remember that Argentina's strategy is basically just "turtle" so Hermie doesn't have to great of a sense of what his enemy aims to achieve

 

[galileo-034]

I'm curious. Have you compiled the myriad of posts of this TL into their respective fictional books ?
Given how long and far-reaching the TL has gone, I'd be curious to see how any of the fictional books would look if one pieced up its parts from across the TL.

 

[naraht]

I *think* as of this point that the end of this chapter takes us farthest forward in time (November 1915). It will be interesting to see the October 1915 chaos in Mexico city, though I'm not sure if it is the cause of Mexico exiting the war or a result of Mexico exiting the war. In *either* case, I don't think Mexico will still be at war with the US as of January 1, 1916. But I'm pretty sure that *somewhere* we've gotten enough of a flash forward for it to be clear that the *last* significant fightingwill be between the USA and CSA. (I'm not counting fighting coming from the disintegration of Centro)

It's funny a more racist/pro-confederate/Northeastern president earlier in the war might have been less aggressive in the south (beyond taking Uruguay) and been willing to ship Brazilian troops north to fight directly against the USA.

I wonder if the author has decided whether the last slaves in the Americas will be in the CSA or in Brazil.

 

[KingSweden24]

I'm curious. Have you compiled the myriad of posts of this TL into their respective fictional books ?
Given how long and far-reaching the TL has gone, I'd be curious to see how any of the fictional books would look if one pieced up its parts from across the TL.

Nah. I’ve debated publishing the first thread in abridged form on Amazon but the individual book entries are scattershot enough they probably don’t add up to much length

 

[KingSweden24]

I *think* as of this point that the end of this chapter takes us farthest forward in time (November 1915). It will be interesting to see the October 1915 chaos in Mexico city, though I'm not sure if it is the cause of Mexico exiting the war or a result of Mexico exiting the war. In *either* case, I don't think Mexico will still be at war with the US as of January 1, 1916. But I'm pretty sure that *somewhere* we've gotten enough of a flash forward for it to be clear that the *last* significant fightingwill be between the USA and CSA. (I'm not counting fighting coming from the disintegration of Centro)

It's funny a more racist/pro-confederate/Northeastern president earlier in the war might have been less aggressive in the south (beyond taking Uruguay) and been willing to ship Brazilian troops north to fight directly against the USA.

I wonder if the author has decided whether the last slaves in the Americas will be in the CSA or in Brazil.

Centro is up soon on the docket, incidentally.

But yes, it is definitely the case that both Brazil and Mexico are about to exit the war. I wanted to do a slight jump ahead here to give Brazil a more comprehensive update and, also, move things along because I’m worried I’m getting a bit bogged down again

 

[Curtain Jerker]

The sense was growing amongst Fonseca's enemies and even with Emperor Luis himself that Brazil was quite possibly at its high-water mark. It had not meaningfully advanced in Argentinean territory in well over a year and had secured its primary strategic goal of vassalizing Uruguay, but now at the cost of Chile as a functional ally and with hundreds of thousands of men dead in vain offensives.

Hey, glad someone has figured out that constantly attacking across a de facto lake in the Parana into the teeth of prepared trenches is a real bad idea. On this timeline's version of AH.com there's a well-received timeline that's just "What if Brazil calls it a day in early/mid 1914 and goes home?"

I understand Brazil trying once to cross the Parana. I do not understand why they tried multiple times. Even Hugh Scott, hardly anyone's idea of competent generalship, tried to cross the Susquehanna only 1.5 times (the initial probes in late Sept/early Oct 1913 then the general theater-wide offense in Nov 1913) and then was like "well, that's not going work" and then didn't keep throwing men away for nothing. When you are more foolish than Hugh Scott you've got real problems!

...his inability to stabilize Brazil's spiraling wartime economy, which during the spring and early summer at the end of 1915 was starting to reveal just how dire it was as European loans started to finally dry up once it was clear after the Mexican defeats at Los Pasos and Cozumel and the chaos that erupted in Mexico City during October that the Bloc Sud was about to be cloven in half along the western Caribbean.

Hopefully nothing bad happens to our boy Max and his family, especially Carlota and Margarita Clementina. Speaking of Max...

Nah. I’ve debated publishing the first thread in abridged form on Amazon but the individual book entries are scattershot enough they probably don’t add up to much length

The "Maximilian of Mexico" book is so large that this timeline's version of Amazon charges extra shipping if you order it

 

[naraht]

Centro is up soon on the docket, incidentally.

But yes, it is definitely the case that both Brazil and Mexico are about to exit the war. I wanted to do a slight jump ahead here to give Brazil a more comprehensive update and, also, move things along because I’m worried I’m getting a bit bogged down again

The other time alignment that I'll be curious to see is Mexico leaving the war vs. "The decision of the Texas Legislature to seek independence later in 1915..."
If Mexico leaves the war first, things might not be too bad in immediate post-war relations. OTOH, if Texas tries to seek independence first and *Mexican* troops are trying to keep it in the Confederacy, *that* could spoil things for a while...

Also, given the Battle of Hilton Head (and the Battle of the Florida Straits), it might make economic sense for the 1915 grain harvest to be shipped out of Boston and New York rather than Montreal. Of course the entire war was whether the grain harvest could go out of New Orleans, but I wouldn't be *that* surprised if the first post-war grain harvest to be majority shipped out of New Orleans wasn't until 1917 or 1918 given the dredging/cleanup in the Lower Mississippi. (I guess that means that the Montreal business community were rooting for the Confederate Navy???)

Randy

 

[theINQUISITOR]

The other time alignment that I'll be curious to see is Mexico leaving the war vs. "The decision of the Texas Legislature to seek independence later in 1915..."
If Mexico leaves the war first, things might not be too bad in immediate post-war relations. OTOH, if Texas tries to seek independence first and *Mexican* troops are trying to keep it in the Confederacy, *that* could spoil things for a while...

My personal prediction for a while now has been that Texas's declaration of independence is the final straw that triggers Mexico's exit from the war. At that point they would no longer have a border with the confederacy, and we know that they've been having secret peace talks for most of the year already. The timelines match up.

What I'm interested to see is what'll happen to the troops, both Mexican and Texan, that find themselves east of Texas when the shit hits the fan. For the former, there's a real risk that their fate ends up being similar to the Russian Expeditionary Force's in France in 1917, except on a much larger scale. As for the Texans, I think some level of large-scale mutiny is unavoidable. That certainly wouldn't help the efforts to defend the approaches to Atlanta.

 

[Dragonboy]

@KingSweden24 , incredible chapter as always!

 

[naraht]

My personal prediction for a while now has been that Texas's declaration of independence is the final straw that triggers Mexico's exit from the war. At that point they would no longer have a border with the confederacy, and we know that they've been having secret peace talks for most of the year already. The timelines match up.

What I'm interested to see is what'll happen to the troops, both Mexican and Texan, that find themselves east of Texas when the shit hits the fan. For the former, there's a real risk that their fate ends up being similar to the Russian Expeditionary Force's in France in 1917, except on a much larger scale. As for the Texans, I think some level of large-scale mutiny is unavoidable. That certainly wouldn't help the efforts to defend the approaches to Atlanta.

I get the feeling that there is a *lot* of the post-GAW CSA that is using Russia 1917-1920 as a model...

 

[Mayukh]

post-GAW CSA

I think you meant Chile.

 

[Curtain Jerker]

I think you meant Chile.

Chile is closer to OTL Russia. The CSA has "Germany 1919" vibes, with the Red Scarves and other paramilitary groups being this timeline's versions of the Freikorps.

 

[Reisen Storm]

In this sense he was a curious Prime Minister - more pro-slavery and pro-Confederate than Pinheiro Machado had been, but also less tied into the Uruguayan and Argentine obsessions of the landowner class of the Southeast that had helped trigger the war...."

I see someone is joining in on the Confederacy suicide pact.

 

[KingSweden24]

Hey, glad someone has figured out that constantly attacking across a de facto lake in the Parana into the teeth of prepared trenches is a real bad idea. On this timeline's version of AH.com there's a well-received timeline that's just "What if Brazil calls it a day in early/mid 1914 and goes home?"

I understand Brazil trying once to cross the Parana. I do not understand why they tried multiple times. Even Hugh Scott, hardly anyone's idea of competent generalship, tried to cross the Susquehanna only 1.5 times (the initial probes in late Sept/early Oct 1913 then the general theater-wide offense in Nov 1913) and then was like "well, that's not going work" and then didn't keep throwing men away for nothing. When you are more foolish than Hugh Scott you've got real problems!

Hopefully nothing bad happens to our boy Max and his family, especially Carlota and Margarita Clementina. Speaking of Max...

The "Maximilian of Mexico" book is so large that this timeline's version of Amazon charges extra shipping if you order it

Such a TL would basically have a "what if Brazilian politics in the 1920s were stable" theme to it, as a mild spoiler

My personal prediction for a while now has been that Texas's declaration of independence is the final straw that triggers Mexico's exit from the war. At that point they would no longer have a border with the confederacy, and we know that they've been having secret peace talks for most of the year already. The timelines match up.

What I'm interested to see is what'll happen to the troops, both Mexican and Texan, that find themselves east of Texas when the shit hits the fan. For the former, there's a real risk that their fate ends up being similar to the Russian Expeditionary Force's in France in 1917, except on a much larger scale. As for the Texans, I think some level of large-scale mutiny is unavoidable. That certainly wouldn't help the efforts to defend the approaches to Atlanta.

Interesting musings! We'll be there soon, for both...

Chile is closer to OTL Russia. The CSA has "Germany 1919" vibes, with the Red Scarves and other paramilitary groups being this timeline's versions of the Freikorps.

Yeah, those are the loose inspirations, though nothing that happens to either country will be nearly as bad as Soviet Russia or Nazi Germany (though especially for the CSA things are going to get pretty freaking bad).

 

[naraht]

Such a TL would basically have a "what if Brazilian politics in the 1920s were stable" theme to it, as a mild spoiler

Interesting musings! We'll be there soon, for both...

Yeah, those are the loose inspirations, though nothing that happens to either country will be nearly as bad as Soviet Russia or Nazi Germany (though especially for the CSA things are going to get pretty freaking bad).

The question is whether an alt TL in CdM that includes Huey Long was killed in Nashville would qualify for a Vlad Tepes award...

 

[Curtain Jerker]

Such a TL would basically have a "what if Brazilian politics in the 1920s were stable" theme to it, as a mild spoiler

Feels like the 1920s will be bad for just about everyone to some degree or another.

Places the 1920s will be bad for, in no particular order:
The CSA - Obviously
Chile - gonna take a long time to pay back all those reparations
Brazil - This timeline's version of Italy's "mutilated victory"
Uruguay - A Brazilian vassal where the minority rules the country and the majority is second-class
UK - This Jix fella sounds like a real treat and they still have to deal with Ireland and India, plus a beefed-up Germany on the continent
Canada - It has been mentioned that a huge part of their economy is selling agriculture to countries that can't get American/Argentine crops, so as soon as those markets open up and trade gets back to something approximating normal Canada's in for a shock. Plus the usual Orange Crush shenanigans won't help
France - RIP to the Second French Empire :/
A-H - I'm hopeful the Dual Monarchy sticks around in some form (its shattering was by no means inevitable OTL) but they're in for a tough time vs Germany and Italy
Denmark - Probably shouldn't have shackled yourself to a corpse in Napoleon V's France
Mexico - I think it was mentioned earlier that Max's kid is a mediocre empire but then Max's grandson is a good one? If so, Mexico might be in some rough days in the late teens/early 20s, but not nearly as bad as the CSA/Chile/Brazil
Italy - Gonna have to fight A-H and France. I can see this going poorly for them even if their side wins.
Portugal - Their economy is a complete fiasco and I can see the UK/Germany picking off parts of the Pink Map.
Colombia? - Being France's South American de facto colony might end up poorly for them once France implodes, but it is tough to say

Places where the 1920s won't be horrible
USA - Seems like all their Bad Times are right after winning the war, by 1920 or so it seems like the ship has been righted somewhat?
Argentina - Even in victory they lost a ton of men, spent a fortune, and "lost" Uruguay. Getting all of Patagonia and TdF back helps tho
China - If the multi-sided civil war ends anytime soon, but still miles better than OTL
Japan - Haven't done a Japan deep dive, but I don't think we're getting the rabid militarization we got OTL in the 20s and 30s
Russia - Way ahead of OTL, especially if they make bank selling stuff to Germany and A-H
Ottomans - Depends on what happens with Greece and Italy, but they should be in halfway decent shape, especially if they keep all their land
Spain - Should be ok? Have the ticking time bomb of Cuba/PR/DR though
Peru/Bolivia - Especially Bolivia. Getting an outlet to the Pacific is a huge deal, even if the nitrates aren't worth a damn anymore.
Venezuela? - The opposite of Colombia: Being Germany's South American de facto colony might end up great for them, but it is tough to say
South Africa - Seems like a decent place all things considered
Australia/New Zealand - No WWI means way more immigration from the UK, especially if the mother country is a shambles

Obviously not a complete list and if I'm missing something please feel free to chime in.

 

[naraht]

Feels like the 1920s will be bad for just about everyone to some degree or another.

Places the 1920s will be bad for, in no particular order:
The CSA - Obviously
Chile - gonna take a long time to pay back all those reparations
Brazil - This timeline's version of Italy's "mutilated victory"
Uruguay - A Brazilian vassal where the minority rules the country and the majority is second-class
UK - This Jix fella sounds like a real treat and they still have to deal with Ireland and India, plus a beefed-up Germany on the continent
Canada - It has been mentioned that a huge part of their economy is selling agriculture to countries that can't get American/Argentine crops, so as soon as those markets open up and trade gets back to something approximating normal Canada's in for a shock. Plus the usual Orange Crush shenanigans won't help
France - RIP to the Second French Empire :/
A-H - I'm hopeful the Dual Monarchy sticks around in some form (its shattering was by no means inevitable OTL) but they're in for a tough time vs Germany and Italy
Denmark - Probably shouldn't have shackled yourself to a corpse in Napoleon V's France
Mexico - I think it was mentioned earlier that Max's kid is a mediocre empire but then Max's grandson is a good one? If so, Mexico might be in some rough days in the late teens/early 20s, but not nearly as bad as the CSA/Chile/Brazil
Italy - Gonna have to fight A-H and France. I can see this going poorly for them even if their side wins.
Portugal - Their economy is a complete fiasco and I can see the UK/Germany picking off parts of the Pink Map.
Colombia? - Being France's South American de facto colony might end up poorly for them once France implodes, but it is tough to say

Places where the 1920s won't be horrible
USA - Seems like all their Bad Times are right after winning the war, by 1920 or so it seems like the ship has been righted somewhat?
Argentina - Even in victory they lost a ton of men, spent a fortune, and "lost" Uruguay. Getting all of Patagonia and TdF back helps tho
China - If the multi-sided civil war ends anytime soon, but still miles better than OTL
Japan - Haven't done a Japan deep dive, but I don't think we're getting the rabid militarization we got OTL in the 20s and 30s
Russia - Way ahead of OTL, especially if they make bank selling stuff to Germany and A-H
Ottomans - Depends on what happens with Greece and Italy, but they should be in halfway decent shape, especially if they keep all their land
Spain - Should be ok? Have the ticking time bomb of Cuba/PR/DR though
Peru/Bolivia - Especially Bolivia. Getting an outlet to the Pacific is a huge deal, even if the nitrates aren't worth a damn anymore.
Venezuela? - The opposite of Colombia: Being Germany's South American de facto colony might end up great for them, but it is tough to say
South Africa - Seems like a decent place all things considered
Australia/New Zealand - No WWI means way more immigration from the UK, especially if the mother country is a shambles

Obviously not a complete list and if I'm missing something please feel free to chime in.

The one country missing that is going to be in the middle of *all* of this: Belgium.
The only reason that I'm not convinced it will be *completely* crappy is that I don't remember seeing the nations of Flanders or Wallonia in the infoboxes thread. However, I'm not sure if I've seen anything that would conclusively indicate whether it is the People's Republic of Belgium. (And yes, I know the author has said that the "wierd" new forms of government iOTL won't be repeated.)

 

[KingSweden24]

TRIGGER WARNING​

"...from the hour of the Huertazo [1] that signalled that Centro and Mexico were, to put it mildly, no longer allies. As the steamy and violent days of August advanced, it was Honduras that landed purely in the crosshairs. Mexican soldiers were ordered to evacuate to the Military District, in part because Centroamerica had effectively ceased to exist as a viable federation and also because Huerta was worried that he would need to defend himself in Guatemala City from government forces that might try to dislodge him there. The retreat was occasionally met with violence from Honduran recruits outraged by their seeming betrayal at Huerta's hands, and mutinies by soldiers and riots by civilians in the path of the Mexican evacuation route were often met with massacres and mass rapes, atrocities for which the Mexican government did not formally apologize until the 1960s.

This was paired with a general deterioration throughout the month of the basic rule of law in most of Honduras even as Centroamerica was formally dissolved and Honduras declared independence after thirty years in the federation. The Honduran state had been held together in part by the personalism of Cabrerismo, which had elevated the interests of Guatemala above all but critically had placed external tensions with the United States and Nicaragua, both crucial matters in Honduras, over and above the long-simmering and familiarly Latin feud between the pre-Cabrera Liberal and Conservative factions of Honduran government, which he had successfully suppressed. After decades where Honduras had been held together by the strength of Guatemalan autocrats like Rufino Barrios and Estrada Cabrera, the evaporation of public order lit a fuse that had long been idle but increasingly oiled.

Mexico's abandonment of Honduras during August of 1915, and the poor condition of Centro troops even before the traumas of that year, left central Honduras badly exposed, and suddenly the Nicaraguan National Guard was not on its back feet but rather saw the enemy melting before it. In response, Zelaya ordered the immediate attack into Honduran territory he had been waiting for years to execute, in part to annihilate what was left of the Conservative opposition militias that had been hiding in Honduran borderlands for half a decade but also to avenge himself upon Honduras for two years of violence. Defensive positions near Somoto and Choluceta, long the front line of the conflict, collapsed and Nicaraguan soldiers surged forward on the roads to Tegucigalpa from south and east, reaching the city on August 22nd. A group of Conservative Honduran militias gathered force along with Nicaraguan exiles to defend the city and a brutal five-day battle ensued that ended with Nicaraguan forces taking the city and, effectively, putting it to the sword. The Sack of Tegucigalpa saw the city's churches and cathedrals ransacked and burned, priests and monks summarily shot alongside soldiers and statesmen, and between five to ten thousand civilians slaughtered in addition to close to ten thousand soldiers killed in the fighting - a number as much as a quarter of the city's pre-war population. Fearing for their safety, Nicaraguan soldiers did not advance much further, thus decapitating the Honduran state and then doing nothing to ameliorate the chaos north of it. Survivors fled out into the countryside, where they encountered a rapidly-collapsing civil order as Liberals attacked monasteries and missions and drove indigenous villagers, long protected by Honduran Conservatives, off of their land. Retaliatory attacks were then carried out by Conservative paramilitaries, hoping to assert power before a Liberal regime backed by Nicaragua could be consolidated.

Worse was what occurred on the massive fruit plantations across north-central Honduras. The long-abused workers supine to Standard Fruit and its Mexican partners revolted across several major farms, tearing up railroads and murdering those foremen who had not fled. Confederates attempted to stampede their way to San Pedro Sula or Guatemala to evacuate, and those who were intercepted by roving bands of Hondurans were hung, chopped to pieces or crucified. This was a brief respite, however, as mercenaries associated with Boston Fruit rapidly moved from Nicaragua and El Salvador into the void to seize the plantations for themselves, killing off what little was left of Standard Fruit's presence but also, with tremendous brutality, attempting to force revolting laborers back onto the farms. US Marines often materialized beside them, sometimes on orders from Philadelphia and sometimes because they were absent without leave and did not want to fight Mexicans in Guatemala, which Butler's men still had not reached even by the end of August.

The Honduran Civil War that erupted, then, completely threw the central Isthmus into chaos and dramatically changed the strategic calculations of both the United States and Mexico, to say nothing of the Nicaraguans who had now succeeded in their goals and were essentially satisfied to exit the war...."

[1] Grammar check from our Spanish speakers here? This is derived from terms like Bogotazo but if it isn't correct I will fix.