The one country missing that is going to be in the middle of *all* of this: Belgium.
The only reason that I'm not convinced it will be *completely* crappy is that I don't remember seeing the nations of Flanders or Wallonia in the infoboxes thread. However, I'm not sure if I've seen anything that would conclusively indicate whether it is the People's Republic of Belgium. (And yes, I know the author has said that the "wierd" new forms of government iOTL won't be repeated.)
Unless its completely absorbed by its neighbors?
 
Feels like the 1920s will be bad for just about everyone to some degree or another.

Places the 1920s will be bad for, in no particular order:
The CSA - Obviously
Chile - gonna take a long time to pay back all those reparations
Brazil - This timeline's version of Italy's "mutilated victory"
Uruguay - A Brazilian vassal where the minority rules the country and the majority is second-class
UK - This Jix fella sounds like a real treat and they still have to deal with Ireland and India, plus a beefed-up Germany on the continent
Canada - It has been mentioned that a huge part of their economy is selling agriculture to countries that can't get American/Argentine crops, so as soon as those markets open up and trade gets back to something approximating normal Canada's in for a shock. Plus the usual Orange Crush shenanigans won't help
France - RIP to the Second French Empire :/
A-H - I'm hopeful the Dual Monarchy sticks around in some form (its shattering was by no means inevitable OTL) but they're in for a tough time vs Germany and Italy
Denmark - Probably shouldn't have shackled yourself to a corpse in Napoleon V's France
Mexico - I think it was mentioned earlier that Max's kid is a mediocre empire but then Max's grandson is a good one? If so, Mexico might be in some rough days in the late teens/early 20s, but not nearly as bad as the CSA/Chile/Brazil
Italy - Gonna have to fight A-H and France. I can see this going poorly for them even if their side wins.
Portugal - Their economy is a complete fiasco and I can see the UK/Germany picking off parts of the Pink Map.
Colombia? - Being France's South American de facto colony might end up poorly for them once France implodes, but it is tough to say

Places where the 1920s won't be horrible
USA - Seems like all their Bad Times are right after winning the war, by 1920 or so it seems like the ship has been righted somewhat?
Argentina - Even in victory they lost a ton of men, spent a fortune, and "lost" Uruguay. Getting all of Patagonia and TdF back helps tho
China - If the multi-sided civil war ends anytime soon, but still miles better than OTL
Japan - Haven't done a Japan deep dive, but I don't think we're getting the rabid militarization we got OTL in the 20s and 30s
Russia - Way ahead of OTL, especially if they make bank selling stuff to Germany and A-H
Ottomans - Depends on what happens with Greece and Italy, but they should be in halfway decent shape, especially if they keep all their land
Spain - Should be ok? Have the ticking time bomb of Cuba/PR/DR though
Peru/Bolivia - Especially Bolivia. Getting an outlet to the Pacific is a huge deal, even if the nitrates aren't worth a damn anymore.
Venezuela? - The opposite of Colombia: Being Germany's South American de facto colony might end up great for them, but it is tough to say
South Africa - Seems like a decent place all things considered
Australia/New Zealand - No WWI means way more immigration from the UK, especially if the mother country is a shambles

Obviously not a complete list and if I'm missing something please feel free to chime in.
Germany is the only oversight I can think of, and I’d put it in the bottom list even though it’ll have quite a few speedbumps
 
TRIGGER WARNING

"...from the hour of the Huertazo [1] that signalled that Centro and Mexico were, to put it mildly, no longer allies. As the steamy and violent days of August advanced, it was Honduras that landed purely in the crosshairs. Mexican soldiers were ordered to evacuate to the Military District, in part because Centroamerica had effectively ceased to exist as a viable federation and also because Huerta was worried that he would need to defend himself in Guatemala City from government forces that might try to dislodge him there. The retreat was occasionally met with violence from Honduran recruits outraged by their seeming betrayal at Huerta's hands, and mutinies by soldiers and riots by civilians in the path of the Mexican evacuation route were often met with massacres and mass rapes, atrocities for which the Mexican government did not formally apologize until the 1960s.

This was paired with a general deterioration throughout the month of the basic rule of law in most of Honduras even as Centroamerica was formally dissolved and Honduras declared independence after thirty years in the federation. The Honduran state had been held together in part by the personalism of Cabrerismo, which had elevated the interests of Guatemala above all but critically had placed external tensions with the United States and Nicaragua, both crucial matters in Honduras, over and above the long-simmering and familiarly Latin feud between the pre-Cabrera Liberal and Conservative factions of Honduran government, which he had successfully suppressed. After decades where Honduras had been held together by the strength of Guatemalan autocrats like Rufino Barrios and Estrada Cabrera, the evaporation of public order lit a fuse that had long been idle but increasingly oiled.

Mexico's abandonment of Honduras during August of 1915, and the poor condition of Centro troops even before the traumas of that year, left central Honduras badly exposed, and suddenly the Nicaraguan National Guard was not on its back feet but rather saw the enemy melting before it. In response, Zelaya ordered the immediate attack into Honduran territory he had been waiting for years to execute, in part to annihilate what was left of the Conservative opposition militias that had been hiding in Honduran borderlands for half a decade but also to avenge himself upon Honduras for two years of violence. Defensive positions near Somoto and Choluceta, long the front line of the conflict, collapsed and Nicaraguan soldiers surged forward on the roads to Tegucigalpa from south and east, reaching the city on August 22nd. A group of Conservative Honduran militias gathered force along with Nicaraguan exiles to defend the city and a brutal five-day battle ensued that ended with Nicaraguan forces taking the city and, effectively, putting it to the sword. The Sack of Tegucigalpa saw the city's churches and cathedrals ransacked and burned, priests and monks summarily shot alongside soldiers and statesmen, and between five to ten thousand civilians slaughtered in addition to close to ten thousand soldiers killed in the fighting - a number as much as a quarter of the city's pre-war population. Fearing for their safety, Nicaraguan soldiers did not advance much further, thus decapitating the Honduran state and then doing nothing to ameliorate the chaos north of it. Survivors fled out into the countryside, where they encountered a rapidly-collapsing civil order as Liberals attacked monasteries and missions and drove indigenous villagers, long protected by Honduran Conservatives, off of their land. Retaliatory attacks were then carried out by Conservative paramilitaries, hoping to assert power before a Liberal regime backed by Nicaragua could be consolidated.

Worse was what occurred on the massive fruit plantations across north-central Honduras. The long-abused workers supine to Standard Fruit and its Mexican partners revolted across several major farms, tearing up railroads and murdering those foremen who had not fled. Confederates attempted to stampede their way to San Pedro Sula or Guatemala to evacuate, and those who were intercepted by roving bands of Hondurans were hung, chopped to pieces or crucified. This was a brief respite, however, as mercenaries associated with Boston Fruit rapidly moved from Nicaragua and El Salvador into the void to seize the plantations for themselves, killing off what little was left of Standard Fruit's presence but also, with tremendous brutality, attempting to force revolting laborers back onto the farms. US Marines often materialized beside them, sometimes on orders from Philadelphia and sometimes because they were absent without leave and did not want to fight Mexicans in Guatemala, which Butler's men still had not reached even by the end of August.

The Honduran Civil War that erupted, then, completely threw the central Isthmus into chaos and dramatically changed the strategic calculations of both the United States and Mexico, to say nothing of the Nicaraguans who had now succeeded in their goals and were essentially satisfied to exit the war...."

[1] Grammar check from our Spanish speakers here? This is derived from terms like Bogotazo but if it isn't correct I will fix.
It would be hilarious if both America and Mexico slap-fight over who gets to own Central America, only for there to be a revolution to kick both of them out. Also, if that happens, RIP Canal.
 
Germany is the only oversight I can think of, and I’d put it in the bottom list even though it’ll have quite a few speedbumps
Ah! No idea how I forgot them, especially considering I mentioned them like a half-dozen times.
The one country missing that is going to be in the middle of *all* of this: Belgium.
The only reason that I'm not convinced it will be *completely* crappy is that I don't remember seeing the nations of Flanders or Wallonia in the infoboxes thread. However, I'm not sure if I've seen anything that would conclusively indicate whether it is the People's Republic of Belgium. (And yes, I know the author has said that the "wierd" new forms of government iOTL won't be repeated.)
This is also a complete miss on my end. Good catch!
 

Worse was what occurred on the massive fruit plantations across north-central Honduras. The long-abused workers supine to Standard Fruit and its Mexican partners revolted across several major farms, tearing up railroads and murdering those foremen who had not fled. Confederates attempted to stampede their way to San Pedro Sula or Guatemala to evacuate, and those who were intercepted by roving bands of Hondurans were hung, chopped to pieces or crucified. This was a brief respite, however, as mercenaries associated with Boston Fruit rapidly moved from Nicaragua and El Salvador into the void to seize the plantations for themselves, killing off what little was left of Standard Fruit's presence but also, with tremendous brutality, attempting to force revolting laborers back onto the farms. US Marines often materialized beside them, sometimes on orders from Philadelphia and sometimes because they were absent without leave and did not want to fight Mexicans in Guatemala, which Butler's men still had not reached even by the end of August.
Jesus christ, i really hope that all Marines and Boston Fruit thugs involved will get some kind of comeuppance!

A great update despite the bleak subject matter
 
It would be hilarious if both America and Mexico slap-fight over who gets to own Central America, only for there to be a revolution to kick both of them out. Also, if that happens, RIP Canal.
Nicaragua’s government enjoys American largesse but El Salvador and Honduras are probably not big fans of either the US or Mexico for a long time; to say nothing of Guatemala!
Jesus christ, i really hope that all Marines and Boston Fruit thugs involved will get some kind of comeuppance!

A great update despite the bleak subject matter
Thanks!

And, well… history is full of those who should be punished who never are, I’ll just leave it at that. The US is not a particularly pure protagonist, despite how much were all (I’m sure) enjoying its pulverizing of the CSA
 
Nicaragua’s government enjoys American largesse but El Salvador and Honduras are probably not big fans of either the US or Mexico for a long time; to say nothing of Guatemala!

Thanks!

And, well… history is full of those who should be punished who never are, I’ll just leave it at that. The US is not a particularly pure protagonist, despite how much were all (I’m sure) enjoying its pulverizing of the CSA
Of course, i think weve been on a run of seeing slaver stomping for so long this brought me right back down to earth (under no illusions that the US has its fair share of blood on the record)
 
Feels like the 1920s will be bad for just about everyone to some degree or another.

Places the 1920s will be bad for, in no particular order:
The CSA - Obviously
Chile - gonna take a long time to pay back all those reparations
Brazil - This timeline's version of Italy's "mutilated victory"
Uruguay - A Brazilian vassal where the minority rules the country and the majority is second-class
UK - This Jix fella sounds like a real treat and they still have to deal with Ireland and India, plus a beefed-up Germany on the continent
Canada - It has been mentioned that a huge part of their economy is selling agriculture to countries that can't get American/Argentine crops, so as soon as those markets open up and trade gets back to something approximating normal Canada's in for a shock. Plus the usual Orange Crush shenanigans won't help
France - RIP to the Second French Empire :/
A-H - I'm hopeful the Dual Monarchy sticks around in some form (its shattering was by no means inevitable OTL) but they're in for a tough time vs Germany and Italy
Denmark - Probably shouldn't have shackled yourself to a corpse in Napoleon V's France
Mexico - I think it was mentioned earlier that Max's kid is a mediocre empire but then Max's grandson is a good one? If so, Mexico might be in some rough days in the late teens/early 20s, but not nearly as bad as the CSA/Chile/Brazil
Italy - Gonna have to fight A-H and France. I can see this going poorly for them even if their side wins.
Portugal - Their economy is a complete fiasco and I can see the UK/Germany picking off parts of the Pink Map.
Colombia? - Being France's South American de facto colony might end up poorly for them once France implodes, but it is tough to say

Places where the 1920s won't be horrible
USA - Seems like all their Bad Times are right after winning the war, by 1920 or so it seems like the ship has been righted somewhat?
Argentina - Even in victory they lost a ton of men, spent a fortune, and "lost" Uruguay. Getting all of Patagonia and TdF back helps tho
China - If the multi-sided civil war ends anytime soon, but still miles better than OTL
Japan - Haven't done a Japan deep dive, but I don't think we're getting the rabid militarization we got OTL in the 20s and 30s
Russia - Way ahead of OTL, especially if they make bank selling stuff to Germany and A-H
Ottomans - Depends on what happens with Greece and Italy, but they should be in halfway decent shape, especially if they keep all their land
Spain - Should be ok? Have the ticking time bomb of Cuba/PR/DR though
Peru/Bolivia - Especially Bolivia. Getting an outlet to the Pacific is a huge deal, even if the nitrates aren't worth a damn anymore.
Venezuela? - The opposite of Colombia: Being Germany's South American de facto colony might end up great for them, but it is tough to say
South Africa - Seems like a decent place all things considered
Australia/New Zealand - No WWI means way more immigration from the UK, especially if the mother country is a shambles

Obviously not a complete list and if I'm missing something please feel free to chime in.
Looks like the Author has decided to make it clear that Honduras belongs on the first list.
 
Looks like the Author has decided to make it clear that Honduras belongs on the first list.
Yeah they're not only on the list but rapidly climbing it too. I feel for the average fruit worker - they've gone from Standard to Boston but it's textbook "meet the new boss, same as the old boss."
 
You know, I just realized that the Spanish Flu, if it arises here (and I see no reason it wouldn't) is going to emerge fairly early on in the CEW. Furthermore, by 1918 the GAW is over and has been for at least a year, but the South is still going to be a shambles - economically ruined, demographically decimated, and occupied by Union troops. I don't know if we'll see be seeing famine in those lands at this time but if we don't its because a nasty one just finished up. In other words, the people of the Confederacy are going to be in POOR health. And then you drop a killer like the Spanish Flu on top of it ... *shudders*. In OTL, it killed between 3-5% of the world's population and infected over a third. I'm guessing that it's death toll in the Confederacy here is going to be closer to 5% and perhaps even surpassing it due to the lact of health infastructure brought on by the war, along with malutrition and other post-war related issues. (Sidenote: And I also just realized that the Boll Weevil is also going to be chowing down on cotton drops during the 20s as well. The South isn't going to be able to catch a break during the "Terrible Twenties" - though the post-war might see a temporary move towards greater food production plus there's going to be a lack of hands to manage the cotton crops which might mitigate the worst of it for a while).

Turning back to Europe, I wonder what the impact of the Flu is going to be at the height of their war, rather than during it's tail end and in the aftermath. It is going to eat right through people in the trenches as well as disrupt war-related industries; but it sounds like people are going to be better fed and just generally in better shape than the average Eurpean was in 1918 in OTL.
 
You know, I just realized that the Spanish Flu, if it arises here (and I see no reason it wouldn't) is going to emerge fairly early on in the CEW. Furthermore, by 1918 the GAW is over and has been for at least a year, but the South is still going to be a shambles - economically ruined, demographically decimated, and occupied by Union troops. I don't know if we'll see be seeing famine in those lands at this time but if we don't its because a nasty one just finished up. In other words, the people of the Confederacy are going to be in POOR health. And then you drop a killer like the Spanish Flu on top of it ... *shudders*. In OTL, it killed between 3-5% of the world's population and infected over a third. I'm guessing that it's death toll in the Confederacy here is going to be closer to 5% and perhaps even surpassing it due to the lact of health infastructure brought on by the war, along with malutrition and other post-war related issues. (Sidenote: And I also just realized that the Boll Weevil is also going to be chowing down on cotton drops during the 20s as well. The South isn't going to be able to catch a break during the "Terrible Twenties" - though the post-war might see a temporary move towards greater food production plus there's going to be a lack of hands to manage the cotton crops which might mitigate the worst of it for a while).

Turning back to Europe, I wonder what the impact of the Flu is going to be at the height of their war, rather than during it's tail end and in the aftermath. It is going to eat right through people in the trenches as well as disrupt war-related industries; but it sounds like people are going to be better fed and just generally in better shape than the average Eurpean was in 1918 in OTL.
The problem here is yes, "Spanish Flu" could be just added to the TL, but the place believed to be the source of Spanish Flu (Fort Riley in Northern Kansas) is highly unlikely to have a significant number of US troops.
 
The problem here is yes, "Spanish Flu" could be just added to the TL, but the place believed to be the source of Spanish Flu (Fort Riley in Northern Kansas) is highly unlikely to have a significant number of US troops.
Lets just make it worse - and just relocate it to a different starting point. I mean, with how ruined the Souh is, lets call it "Confederate Flu"

lol.
 
The problem here is yes, "Spanish Flu" could be just added to the TL, but the place believed to be the source of Spanish Flu (Fort Riley in Northern Kansas) is highly unlikely to have a significant number of US troops.
That was only to site of the first reported case - it's highly likely it developed elsewhere and flew under the radar until that moment. Which makes sense because Fort Riley was where recruits would get their physicals- an outbreak there would be noticed; whereas cases elsewhere would initially be passed over as just seasonal influenza.

And also, Fort Riley was a training center for troops to be sent over seas. The Fort was established in 1853, so it predates the POD and there's no reason to think it wouldn't be used in a similar manner during the GAW - especially as it had previously been utilised as a US Cavalry school, meaning that it had facilities for training already there. So even if we assume that the Flu DID develop in Kansas, its reasonable to assume that it would first still be recognised at Fort Riley. Though, because of butterflies, the illness might first be noticed during an outbreak at another Fort (or even in a civilian community)
 
Last edited:
Maybe, could just go the extra mile and call it the Peruvian Flu, or Chilean Flu.
It only got thr name Spanish because the earliest reports to hit the media were in Spain - and Spain's neutrality earned is a rather odd reputation at the time. So these names make as much sense as any other.
 
It only got thr name Spanish because the earliest reports to hit the media were in Spain - and Spain's neutrality earned is a rather odd reputation at the time. So these names make as much sense as any other.
I'm trying to think who iTTL has a reputation as being a poor neutral relatively close to fighting. for the GAW, I *guess* Colombia or Venezuela. For the CEW, Sweden?
 
I'm trying to think who iTTL has a reputation as being a poor neutral relatively close to fighting. for the GAW, I *guess* Colombia or Venezuela. For the CEW, Sweden?
It wouldn't really have to be a neutral nation - if it still arises in the US it could just as easily be known as the "American Flu" or "Union Flu." If it striking the Confederacy hard is what gets stuck in the public mind, "Confederate Flu" or "Dixie Flu" would be pretty obvious names for it (especially if much of the early reporting is driven by Union reporters during the Occupation. Such a naming would serve a whole slew of political purposes!). If we DO want to name it after a neutral nation, I have a soft spot for the "Canadian Flu" - its close enough to the US that it likely gets hit pretty early on, and the GAW has forced a lot of American harvests to ship out through Canada during the war (and this will likely continue afterwards due to the Mississippi needed to be dragged) meaning that there is a lot of crossborder traffic and connections meaning that a disease that develops on the American prairie is going to transfer to Canada very quickly; and from Canada to Europe and the world.
 
It wouldn't really have to be a neutral nation - if it still arises in the US it could just as easily be known as the "American Flu" or "Union Flu." If it striking the Confederacy hard is what gets stuck in the public mind, "Confederate Flu" or "Dixie Flu" would be pretty obvious names for it (especially if much of the early reporting is driven by Union reporters during the Occupation. Such a naming would serve a whole slew of political purposes!). If we DO want to name it after a neutral nation, I have a soft spot for the "Canadian Flu" - its close enough to the US that it likely gets hit pretty early on, and the GAW has forced a lot of American harvests to ship out through Canada during the war (and this will likely continue afterwards due to the Mississippi needed to be dragged) meaning that there is a lot of crossborder traffic and connections meaning that a disease that develops on the American prairie is going to transfer to Canada very quickly; and from Canada to Europe and the world.
IOTL the image of Spain being unusually hard hit originated because all the warring nations were deliberately suppressing news of the outbreak, so if the USA or CSA have press restrictions similar to those the Allies (including the US) and the Central Powers had IOTL and choose to suppress news of a potential flu outbreak a neutral nation may be likely to provide the moniker.
 
Top