I do not know if this is just me, but does anyone think that this scenario would make a great Hearts of Iron 4 mod?
Wagner’s Germany: An Axis Victory TL
- Thread starter CrimsonKing
- Start date
Some thoughts on the British Empire. First of all, financially they should be somewhat better off than OTL 1945, and their armed forces, population, and industry should also be better off. Politically though, they're about the same, if not worse off. Britain has not only been forced to the peace table, they have been forced to compromise on Axis terms. The British Empire won't be collapsing in a dramatic - revolts and rebellions - everywhere, but there's blood in the water, and Britain's colonial subjects can smell it and with it Britain's weakness. With that said, I think they can salvage some of their empire to an extent.
First, Africa: the British might be able to keep some influence in West and East Africa, though not as a colonial power. If they do that, their colonies would declare revolt, and while it'll be bloody they'll either be forced to give up on their colonies or win but are so weakened by it the French and other colonial powers in Africa will just march in with barely any resistance. IMO, the British should follow the American model and put their remaining West and East African colonies on transition to full independence, say 10-15 years, and agree to provide industrial development aid over the next 20 years. In return, the new nations will be allied with Britain and the Commonwealth, and grant basing rights to them and their allies. This could earn the support of the local elites and intelligentsia on which a government would be founded on, and the British can point to the vast French and Italian colonial empires plus the German outposts in Africa as incentive for their former subjects to stay friends.
The wild card in Africa though is South Africa. I've no doubt that with the British defeat, Boer nationalism is on the rise, and there's a good chance South Africa will leave the Commonwealth ala OTL should the National Party win any following elections. It's what they do after that makes the difference on the international stage. On one hand, they could go the neutral route, as the west probably won't support their very Axis-like white minority rule, but OTOH they might not be so happy with the Axis either, what with Germany taking back Sudwest Afrika. However, Wagner could either sell or push for economic union between South Africa and Sudwest Afrika (though in the latter option it remains under German administration), to placate the South Africans, with recognition/support for South African expansion in Rhodesia and Bechuanaland and possibly economic assistance to sweeten the deal. Depending on what happens there, South Africa could become a major Axis player in Africa, and a counterweight to France and Italy in the region, as well as further depriving the Allies (well the British) of resources, power projection, and manpower. The Uranium among other resources in Sudwest Afrika is going to be very valuable for one thing.
The Americas are fairly straightforward, the Axis are going to stay out of there to keep the US happy, so no worries. With that said, it might be best for Britain and the Commonwealth to consolidate their American holdings by merging Canada and Newfoundland, and perhaps turning over the Caribbean colonies to Canada. With that said, Canada's probably going to fall (though Britain is too) into the American economic orbit, and to an extent politically as well.
The Pacific is the worst. Britain has no power projection left, and the ANZACS are on their own. They'll probably stay as Dominions, but there's also a chance they might leave the Commonwealth and go their own way. Regardless, they'll fall into the American political, economic, and military spheres without a doubt.
India is going to be a major flash point, between the Axis-backed Bose and the (possibly) neutral-leaning Ghandi. And there's leftist Nehru too. We might see proxy war in the region, maybe with no united India. If so, it's possible we'll see a West-aligned Pakistan and North India, East India under Bose backed by the Japanese, and possibly the princely states to the south alternately courted by the Japanese and the west. They may stay allied with Britain, but if western-backed Nehru moves against the princes there's a good chance they'll jump into the Axis bandwagon.
The Middle East...is complicated (as usual). On one hand, the British sold out the Egyptians to the Italians and the Iranians to the Soviets. OTOH, Arabs and Iranians don't get along, so there's little loss there as far as the former are concerned, and without the British and their allies backing the Treaty of Tehran the Italians might just want more. With that said, if the British want to keep the Arabs as allies, they might have to end support for Zionism. Otherwise, they might be facing a growing, pro-Axis sentiment among the Arabs, with the idea of getting an agreement with the Axis of no further European gains in the Middle East in exchange for their support...so long as they get rid of Israel, and send the Jews there to the Jewish reservation south of Leningrad.
I'll think on this some more, but so far, that's what I can see happening to the former British Empire and its SOIs in the foreseeable future of this TL.
First, Africa: the British might be able to keep some influence in West and East Africa, though not as a colonial power. If they do that, their colonies would declare revolt, and while it'll be bloody they'll either be forced to give up on their colonies or win but are so weakened by it the French and other colonial powers in Africa will just march in with barely any resistance. IMO, the British should follow the American model and put their remaining West and East African colonies on transition to full independence, say 10-15 years, and agree to provide industrial development aid over the next 20 years. In return, the new nations will be allied with Britain and the Commonwealth, and grant basing rights to them and their allies. This could earn the support of the local elites and intelligentsia on which a government would be founded on, and the British can point to the vast French and Italian colonial empires plus the German outposts in Africa as incentive for their former subjects to stay friends.
The wild card in Africa though is South Africa. I've no doubt that with the British defeat, Boer nationalism is on the rise, and there's a good chance South Africa will leave the Commonwealth ala OTL should the National Party win any following elections. It's what they do after that makes the difference on the international stage. On one hand, they could go the neutral route, as the west probably won't support their very Axis-like white minority rule, but OTOH they might not be so happy with the Axis either, what with Germany taking back Sudwest Afrika. However, Wagner could either sell or push for economic union between South Africa and Sudwest Afrika (though in the latter option it remains under German administration), to placate the South Africans, with recognition/support for South African expansion in Rhodesia and Bechuanaland and possibly economic assistance to sweeten the deal. Depending on what happens there, South Africa could become a major Axis player in Africa, and a counterweight to France and Italy in the region, as well as further depriving the Allies (well the British) of resources, power projection, and manpower. The Uranium among other resources in Sudwest Afrika is going to be very valuable for one thing.
The Americas are fairly straightforward, the Axis are going to stay out of there to keep the US happy, so no worries. With that said, it might be best for Britain and the Commonwealth to consolidate their American holdings by merging Canada and Newfoundland, and perhaps turning over the Caribbean colonies to Canada. With that said, Canada's probably going to fall (though Britain is too) into the American economic orbit, and to an extent politically as well.
The Pacific is the worst. Britain has no power projection left, and the ANZACS are on their own. They'll probably stay as Dominions, but there's also a chance they might leave the Commonwealth and go their own way. Regardless, they'll fall into the American political, economic, and military spheres without a doubt.
India is going to be a major flash point, between the Axis-backed Bose and the (possibly) neutral-leaning Ghandi. And there's leftist Nehru too. We might see proxy war in the region, maybe with no united India. If so, it's possible we'll see a West-aligned Pakistan and North India, East India under Bose backed by the Japanese, and possibly the princely states to the south alternately courted by the Japanese and the west. They may stay allied with Britain, but if western-backed Nehru moves against the princes there's a good chance they'll jump into the Axis bandwagon.
The Middle East...is complicated (as usual). On one hand, the British sold out the Egyptians to the Italians and the Iranians to the Soviets. OTOH, Arabs and Iranians don't get along, so there's little loss there as far as the former are concerned, and without the British and their allies backing the Treaty of Tehran the Italians might just want more. With that said, if the British want to keep the Arabs as allies, they might have to end support for Zionism. Otherwise, they might be facing a growing, pro-Axis sentiment among the Arabs, with the idea of getting an agreement with the Axis of no further European gains in the Middle East in exchange for their support...so long as they get rid of Israel, and send the Jews there to the Jewish reservation south of Leningrad.
I'll think on this some more, but so far, that's what I can see happening to the former British Empire and its SOIs in the foreseeable future of this TL.
Didn't Italy gain Palestine, Irak and Transjordania though ? Not as colonies but mandates / protectorates / autonomous allies ?
Selling South-West Africa to South Africa (with an economical alliance between SA and Germany) is a good idea yes.
And Wagner might well do it, he cares more about the real economical and diplomatical standing of Germany, than the size of her empire.
Not to mention having far-off colonies is expensive when you plan to conquer and control Russia.
The British would not be happy with SAers and Germans cozying up. But at least it could mean no more German military presence near the Cape. Which IS good for them.
And the SA will likely become friendly with the Axis but remain formally neutral, plotting her own course. Britain can accept this.
If the SA and Germany actually create a military alliance (with the German having bases in Namibia and maybe SA), Britain would be really, really unhappy though. And might start to lend-lease the Soviets through Persia in retaliation. It would not be a smart move.
Selling South-West Africa to South Africa (with an economical alliance between SA and Germany) is a good idea yes.
And Wagner might well do it, he cares more about the real economical and diplomatical standing of Germany, than the size of her empire.
Not to mention having far-off colonies is expensive when you plan to conquer and control Russia.
The British would not be happy with SAers and Germans cozying up. But at least it could mean no more German military presence near the Cape. Which IS good for them.
And the SA will likely become friendly with the Axis but remain formally neutral, plotting her own course. Britain can accept this.
If the SA and Germany actually create a military alliance (with the German having bases in Namibia and maybe SA), Britain would be really, really unhappy though. And might start to lend-lease the Soviets through Persia in retaliation. It would not be a smart move.
I fear it may be, though we can hope he just has RL issues to deal with: work, sick, on vacation, etc.
I don't think they do, in any case the British still have Cyprus so I'm fairly certain they could (diplomatically) fight to keep and win Palestine and the Trans-Jordan. They still have Iraq though. Not much point forcing the Soviets to allow the turnover of Abadan from the People's Republic of Iran to the Kingdom of Iraq if so.
Apart from Sudwest Afrika, Germany could also sell older vessels, aircraft, and vehicles to South Africa. And economic aid packages from the ECM...at a fair and reasonable price: let's say 30 to 40% shares for German/European corporations on resource extraction in Namibia, which the South Africans would probably agree to (since it means gaining access to advanced German technology in the process).
Actually, in hindsight, it's not just the Germans who'd be heavily-investing in South Africa. There's also the Dutch, who'd probably be pleased to see their cousins freed of the British yoke, what with Holland part of Nazi!NATO and all that.
I don't think they do, in any case the British still have Cyprus so I'm fairly certain they could (diplomatically) fight to keep and win Palestine and the Trans-Jordan. They still have Iraq though. Not much point forcing the Soviets to allow the turnover of Abadan from the People's Republic of Iran to the Kingdom of Iraq if so.
Apart from Sudwest Afrika, Germany could also sell older vessels, aircraft, and vehicles to South Africa. And economic aid packages from the ECM...at a fair and reasonable price: let's say 30 to 40% shares for German/European corporations on resource extraction in Namibia, which the South Africans would probably agree to (since it means gaining access to advanced German technology in the process).
Actually, in hindsight, it's not just the Germans who'd be heavily-investing in South Africa. There's also the Dutch, who'd probably be pleased to see their cousins freed of the British yoke, what with Holland part of Nazi!NATO and all that.
I have just gotten into reading this, and I am so disappointed Crimson has not been heard from since March. 
I'm not sure the Dutch still care about South Africa though. They lost Cape Colony more than 150 years ago.
Seems that way and I agree it is a shame. The author hasn't been active on AH for quite some time now, lets hope its just RL and nothing serious and that he'll be back soon.
If for no other reason than to let us know officially that it is indeed dead.
Sad that there may never be another chapter. Even so, I keep coming back to reread what Crimson has written. Likely will for a long time, holding out hope that we'll see him again.
Obergruppenführer Smith
Banned
People, we've had writers coming back after years to continue writing. Isn't it a bit imprudent of anyone to just write off a writer because of a mere three months?
What can I say? We're an impatient lot.
But yeah I also expressed earlier that it could just be a case of RL and that we shouldn't jump to conclusions but hope for the best.
Addendum to my earlier post on Japanese aircraft, just in case Crimson decides to return.
Surprisingly, Japan actually did develop proper heavy bombers...and unsurprisingly, it was the navy. Typical of a military where the army fields warships of its own, the navy would have strategic bombers...sigh...
...anyway, Japan had two: the prototype G5N, and the G8N. The G5N was a prototype bomber developed in 1941, though it performed poorly in testing: it was too heavy, its engines were unreliable, and it was too complex for mass production. In contrast, the G8N - developed in 1945 - was a properly-designed craft, and was Imperial Japan's first and only true heavy bomber. It performed well in all aspects, though it suffered minor - but apparently easily-corrected - troubles with its engines' turbosuperchargers. Generation-wise, it should be comparable to the B-24 or the B-29, but as Imperial Japan's first true heavy bomber, IMO it'd be better to compare it with the B-17 (and which despite the introduction of the B-24 and the B-29 remained the most common Allied heavy bomber).
Range, the G8N is superior, 7,250 km to the B-17's 3,219 km. Speed, again the G8N is superior, 576 km/h to the B-17's 462 km/h. Ceiling, the B-17 is superior, at 10.9 km to the G8N's 10.2 km. The G8N also has a superior rate of climb, at 1,500 ft/min to the B-17's 900 ft/min. Bomb load, the G8N carries more at a normal load out, 4000 kg, compared to the B-17's 3,600 kg at missions less than 400 mi out, and 2000 kg up to 800 miles. Overloading the B-17 though, gives it a greater payload than the G8N, at 7,800 kg.
Japan doesn't really need strategic bombers in the short-term, though in the long-term they'd need them to carry NBC weapons as a deterrent against a revanchist China. So, there's no real need to rush, though if really needed Japan could develop/introduce the G8N sooner with some help from the Germans, who already have He-177.
In terms of defensive armament the G8N is also superior, with the B-17 having 13 12.7 mm heavy machine guns spread out across the plane. The G8N however has 6 20 mm cannons in dual turrets, at the dorsal, ventral, and tail positions, and 6 13 mm machine guns in dual turrets in the nose and fuselage positions. Quantitatively-less by one, true, but the fact that half of the G8N's defensive armament are 20 mm cannons more than makes up for that.
Surprisingly, Japan actually did develop proper heavy bombers...and unsurprisingly, it was the navy. Typical of a military where the army fields warships of its own, the navy would have strategic bombers...sigh...
...anyway, Japan had two: the prototype G5N, and the G8N. The G5N was a prototype bomber developed in 1941, though it performed poorly in testing: it was too heavy, its engines were unreliable, and it was too complex for mass production. In contrast, the G8N - developed in 1945 - was a properly-designed craft, and was Imperial Japan's first and only true heavy bomber. It performed well in all aspects, though it suffered minor - but apparently easily-corrected - troubles with its engines' turbosuperchargers. Generation-wise, it should be comparable to the B-24 or the B-29, but as Imperial Japan's first true heavy bomber, IMO it'd be better to compare it with the B-17 (and which despite the introduction of the B-24 and the B-29 remained the most common Allied heavy bomber).
Range, the G8N is superior, 7,250 km to the B-17's 3,219 km. Speed, again the G8N is superior, 576 km/h to the B-17's 462 km/h. Ceiling, the B-17 is superior, at 10.9 km to the G8N's 10.2 km. The G8N also has a superior rate of climb, at 1,500 ft/min to the B-17's 900 ft/min. Bomb load, the G8N carries more at a normal load out, 4000 kg, compared to the B-17's 3,600 kg at missions less than 400 mi out, and 2000 kg up to 800 miles. Overloading the B-17 though, gives it a greater payload than the G8N, at 7,800 kg.
Japan doesn't really need strategic bombers in the short-term, though in the long-term they'd need them to carry NBC weapons as a deterrent against a revanchist China. So, there's no real need to rush, though if really needed Japan could develop/introduce the G8N sooner with some help from the Germans, who already have He-177.
In terms of defensive armament the G8N is also superior, with the B-17 having 13 12.7 mm heavy machine guns spread out across the plane. The G8N however has 6 20 mm cannons in dual turrets, at the dorsal, ventral, and tail positions, and 6 13 mm machine guns in dual turrets in the nose and fuselage positions. Quantitatively-less by one, true, but the fact that half of the G8N's defensive armament are 20 mm cannons more than makes up for that.
Very interesting, the G8N could be useful in a war against the Soviets. Weird yet typical that it's a Navy project.
Obergruppenführer Smith
Banned
Why is it weird? Only IJN had an actual vision of what kind of air war they might be committing to.
Any idea on what the Japanese could trade in exchange for parts and plans for the Do-335? Japan has the Ki-102, though it won't be out until 1944 probably, and by then it's outclassed by the P-38 Lightning, which has longer range, faster rate of climb, and higher ceiling. The Ki-102 is better as a light bomber/ground attack craft than a heavy fighter at that point.
I stand corrected.
I'm not sure, what did they trade IOTL for the plans to the Me-262 & Me-163? I think if the Japanese learn of the Do-335, the Germans would find a way to accommodate them. The Germans (even Hitler) knew it was in Germany's best interest to keep Japan in the war.