Prologue - The Pivotal Age
Huehuecoyotl
Monthly Donor
The Pivotal Age
The era between 447 - 760 AR [1] is sometimes referred to as a Pivotal Age in history. It was to this period that the states of modern Europe can ascribe their earliest origins, and for this reason it has been the focus of much study in the academic world, especially for the past two centuries. It was also, however, to see a pivotal event in the Arabian Peninsula which would not be intensely studied, or even understood, in the world's histories, as the origins of great states like Hispania or Polonia would be. This event, which probably took place between 529 - 540 AC, was a relatively minor invasion of a backwater region in Arabia which would have unknowably far-reaching consequences.
According to what few sources can be gleaned from Arabia during this period, a man named Abraha was the Aksumite viceroy of the region of Yemen at the time. Abraha seems to have taken offense to the pagan tribes to the northwest of his holdings, vowing to show the supremacy of the Christian faith over their 'heathen' ways, once and for all. To this end, he guided a small army into the Hedjaz, intending to march upon the city of Makka, and its shrine, called the Kaaba. Despite the best efforts of the Arab tribes of the area to halt the progress of the Yemeni and Aksumite forces, Abraha eventually reached Mekka. With the help of a war elephant (or two) [2], the Kaaba, a central holy place of the traditional Arabian religion, was demolished, and the city sacked. The Quraysh tribe, which had been the designated protectors of the shrine, was especially devastated.
With their goal accomplished, Abraha and his men continued to raid the region for another few months, placing Aksumite officials in positions of authority over the important cities of Mekka and Yathrib before returning to Yemen. Ethiopian influence over the Arabian peninsula had grown almost overnight, and would only continue to affect the region more and more in the coming years. To outside observers of this history, it cannot be known whether this event precluded the birth of a person we would know as Muhammad, whether he died during the raids of the Aksumites, or whether he simply lived his life out in obscurity.
One thing, however, is certain - for want of a shepherd, and by the whims of an elephant, the world would be changed forever.
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[1] - 'After the Resurrection'; ITTL the base year of the calender is 29 CE.
[2] - IOTL, the elephant(s) supposedly misbehaved and refused to move into the city. Here, undeterred, they allow the Aksumites to proceed with the destruction of the Kaaba.
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This is a revival of an old TL idea called The Lord Reigns in Arabia, which I largely abandoned but still toyed around with for the past couple of years. Now that I'm older, and a little bit wiser, I hope to be able to continue this TL, and examine the far-reaching consequences of a world without Islam.
I'd appreciate any comments, criticisms, or suggestions that anyone has to make!