The Age of the Elephant - A World Without Islam

Prologue - The Pivotal Age

Huehuecoyotl

Monthly Donor
The Pivotal Age

The era between 447 - 760 AR [1] is sometimes referred to as a Pivotal Age in history. It was to this period that the states of modern Europe can ascribe their earliest origins, and for this reason it has been the focus of much study in the academic world, especially for the past two centuries. It was also, however, to see a pivotal event in the Arabian Peninsula which would not be intensely studied, or even understood, in the world's histories, as the origins of great states like Hispania or Polonia would be. This event, which probably took place between 529 - 540 AC, was a relatively minor invasion of a backwater region in Arabia which would have unknowably far-reaching consequences.

According to what few sources can be gleaned from Arabia during this period, a man named Abraha was the Aksumite viceroy of the region of Yemen at the time. Abraha seems to have taken offense to the pagan tribes to the northwest of his holdings, vowing to show the supremacy of the Christian faith over their 'heathen' ways, once and for all. To this end, he guided a small army into the Hedjaz, intending to march upon the city of Makka, and its shrine, called the Kaaba. Despite the best efforts of the Arab tribes of the area to halt the progress of the Yemeni and Aksumite forces, Abraha eventually reached Mekka. With the help of a war elephant (or two) [2], the Kaaba, a central holy place of the traditional Arabian religion, was demolished, and the city sacked. The Quraysh tribe, which had been the designated protectors of the shrine, was especially devastated.

With their goal accomplished, Abraha and his men continued to raid the region for another few months, placing Aksumite officials in positions of authority over the important cities of Mekka and Yathrib before returning to Yemen. Ethiopian influence over the Arabian peninsula had grown almost overnight, and would only continue to affect the region more and more in the coming years. To outside observers of this history, it cannot be known whether this event precluded the birth of a person we would know as Muhammad, whether he died during the raids of the Aksumites, or whether he simply lived his life out in obscurity.

One thing, however, is certain - for want of a shepherd, and by the whims of an elephant, the world would be changed forever.

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[1] - 'After the Resurrection'; ITTL the base year of the calender is 29 CE.

[2] - IOTL, the elephant(s) supposedly misbehaved and refused to move into the city. Here, undeterred, they allow the Aksumites to proceed with the destruction of the Kaaba.


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This is a revival of an old TL idea called The Lord Reigns in Arabia, which I largely abandoned but still toyed around with for the past couple of years. Now that I'm older, and a little bit wiser, I hope to be able to continue this TL, and examine the far-reaching consequences of a world without Islam.

I'd appreciate any comments, criticisms, or suggestions that anyone has to make!
 
Great start- but you should just use CE or AD- alt. calendars are very confusing. Not to mention that the use of 0 CE/AD as a base predates your POD.
 
Must not forget that without islam it is most probable that the Hungarian kingdom wont fall either and will retain its status as a grait power in Europe.
This story started out interestin, lets see what you make out of it.
 

Huehuecoyotl

Monthly Donor
Great start- but you should just use CE or AD- alt. calendars are very confusing. Not to mention that the use of 0 CE/AD as a base predates your POD.

Existed, yes, but it wasn't popularized until the 700s. In either case, I'll limit its use to direct quotations of documents/whatever from the TL itself and will keep using our own calender for the updates proper.

Must not forget that without islam it is most probable that the Hungarian kingdom wont fall either and will retain its status as a grait power in Europe.
This story started out interestin, lets see what you make out of it.

I have plans for the Magyars. :)
 
I'm interested in the Safhavid Empire, watching it survive would be interesting but so would watching it collapse in a cool way.
 
Update 1 - Aksumite-Iranian War, 570 - 571 CE

Huehuecoyotl

Monthly Donor
Aksumite-Iranian War, 570 - 571 CE

A map of the Aksumite Empire after the conquest of Mecca. The Aksumite state now straddles the Bab-el-Mandeb and controls most of the Hejaz. At the periphery of the map, the Nubian, Roman, and Persian states are visible.

Aksum and its domains in the Arabian Peninsula, ca. 571

As Aksum was expanding its reach across the Red Sea, the Roman and Iranian states continued their ancient rivalry. In their vying for dominance in the near east, proxy states betwixt the two mighty empires were invariably drawn into the conflict, most commonly in the Caucasus, and in the Arabian Peninsula. The political situation in Arabia at the time was delicately balanced, the kingdom of the Ghassanids Roman foederati, and the Lakhmids under Iranian suzerainty. The conquest of the Hedjaz and the sudden rise of Aksumite power upset this balance dramatically in favor of the Romans, a turn of events by which the Sassanid state felt challenged. Determined to deliver a punishing blow to the Christians and increase the Iranian hold on Arabia, the Shah, Khosrau I, outfitted a force of 1,500 men, under the command of a man named Wahrīz, for the purpose of extirpating the Aksumites from Yemen and the Hedjaz.

From the beginning, the Iranian expedition was dogged by ill fortune: a number of the ships transporting the soldiers to Yemen were blown off course, some sinking and the rest returning to the Gulf in disarray. However, most of the force did manage to make landfall near Aden, thence north to capture San'a, the regional capital of Yemen. San'a fell relatively easily to the Iranian host, which proceeded northward into the Hedjaz with about half of its original force, the rest either lost or left behind to garrison the captured cities of Yemen. Just north of the Yemeni border, however, the Aksumites at last caught up, meeting the Iranians in battle near Najran. After two days of battle, Wahrīz was forced to order a retreat, harassed all the way back to San'a by the vengeful Aksumites. After a year of frustrating stalemates and Aksumite attacks, the invasion simply became too costly for the Iranians to maintain, and they abandoned the region. What remained of the army returned to Persia in 572 to a livid Khosrau.

The defeat, while not an especially major one, was nonetheless a stinging blow to Iranian pride. The Romans, meanwhile, took advantage of the Sassanids' distraction to deal with an ever-hectoring threat on the Trans-Danubian frontier...
 
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Is this going to provide a background for your map series, or do you plan to let this TL go off and do its own thing?

Bruce
 

katchen

Banned
At this point it looks like we're going to see a Coptic Arabia (or at least a Coptic South Arabia). This will be a major departure ITTL. The Byzantines won't be able to leave the Copts alone ITTL now because they are Monophysite (believing that Jesus is only a man --Monophysite--one nature--and therefore heretics. But the Red Sea region is a hard area to conquer for Romans, East or West. Should be interesting.
 

Huehuecoyotl

Monthly Donor
At this point it looks like we're going to see a Coptic Arabia (or at least a Coptic South Arabia). This will be a major departure ITTL. The Byzantines won't be able to leave the Copts alone ITTL now because they are Monophysite (believing that Jesus is only a man --Monophysite--one nature--and therefore heretics. But the Red Sea region is a hard area to conquer for Romans, East or West. Should be interesting.

Your ascertainment is correct (largely). Aksum isn't going to be a Roman proxy in the region for very much longer.


Is this going to provide a background for your map series, or do you plan to let this TL go off and do its own thing?

Bruce

Well, sorta both. I plan to work towards the map series as an end, but if I end up needing to change things, I'll do it.
 

Huehuecoyotl

Monthly Donor
Question to help me with the next update: who would have succeeded Justin II, if not Tiberius II? Did he have male relatives?
 
At this point it looks like we're going to see a Coptic Arabia (or at least a Coptic South Arabia). This will be a major departure ITTL. The Byzantines won't be able to leave the Copts alone ITTL now because they are Monophysite (believing that Jesus is only a man --Monophysite--one nature--and therefore heretics. But the Red Sea region is a hard area to conquer for Romans, East or West. Should be interesting.

It was the Ebionites who believed Jesus was only a man.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monophysitism
 
Update 2 - Roman Victories in the West, 571 - 577 CE

Huehuecoyotl

Monthly Donor
Roman Victories in the West, 571 - 577 CE

The preoccupation of the Sassanids in the Red Sea region, and their subsequent humiliating loss, meant an opportunity for the Roman Empire to focus on their western possessions. Less than a decade after the death of Justinian, the future of his conquests was in jeopardy - the Lombards were encroaching on Italy, Avars raided along the Danube frontier, and the defense of Spania against the Visigoths was rapidly deteriorating. Justin II, a nephew of Justinian's, was the emperor at this time, and was determined to secure the Empire's control of his uncle's gains. [1]

The Empire had already been warring with the Avars for a couple of years at this point, and a victory over the barbarians in Thrace the previous year had confidence in Constantinople high that a final victory could be won against the Avar Khaganate. Near Sirmium the armies met again, and the khagan of the Avars was slain during the course of the battle. As the Avars crumbled in the absence of a leader, the Lombards began raiding into Pannonia. Struggling on two fronts, the Avars turned north toward greener pastures. Within a decade, they had abandoned the areas north of the Danube, heading towards the Baltic.

Following the victories against the Avars, Roman armies turned west to Italy, ancient homeland of the Empire, to end the rampant raiding and incursions of the Germanic Lombards throughout the peninsula. The important cities of the north, namely Verona and Milan, had already fallen a couple of years earlier under the competent command of their king, Alboin. While Longinus, the exarch sent by Justin II a few years prior, had been unable to hold any but the coastal cities, the new influx of Roman soldiers gradually pushed the tide back. As Verona and Milan came under Roman siege late in 576, the center of gravity of the Lombard culture had begun to swing back in the direction of Pannonia, recently vacated by the Avars. Thus, by 577, the Lombard excursion in the Italian Peninsula was at an end, and Roman control of Italy was, at least for the time, secure.

Further west, the Empire was not so lucky - Cordoba had fallen to the energetic Liuvigild, king of the Visigoths, around 572, and all of Roman Spania was in jeopardy. Here no reclaiming of territory was possible, but the arrival of the powerful Roman navy ensured that the coastal fortresses of Gades and Carthago Spartaria would not fall to the Visigoths. His inability to extricate the Romans convinced Liuvigild to sign a truce with the Romans in 576, eager to turn his attention north towards Galicia and Cantabria. Roman Spania's future was secured, at least for the time being, leaving the Romans to gaze enviously upriver at the captured cities of Hispalis and Cordoba.

This first spate of Roman victories in the West, however, was at its end. By 577, the Sassanid armies had recovered from the Yemeni debacle, and peace could not last in the East for long...

A map of the Roman Empire in the year 580. The traditional Eastern Roman provinces are secure, as are the Danube frontier, the Balkan peninsula, and North Africa. Southern Hispania is reduced from the days of Justinian, but the Romans still have a strong presence there.

The Roman Empire in 580 CE

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[1] - Without the stress of the Roman-Persian War of 572, Justin II never experiences the nervous breakdown he did IOTL.

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I think I bungled the Danube border on the map, but it's a minor concern at best. Comments so far?
 
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Huehuecoyotl

Monthly Donor
This is great:)
Will Buddhism stay the dominant religion in South-East Asia?

In continental Southeast Asia, yes, for the most part - Indonesia was Hindu at this point, wasn't it? Although some sects of Christianity may end up drifting in that direction if that's the way things work out.
 
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