Is a Late CP Victory Possible?

Similarly, the Americans going for the narrow front strategy in 1944 would result in them getting further east than IOTL. Both of these are "just" an Allied victory scenario, but they have big ramifications for the ensuing cold war.
I understand that was due to logistics mismanageiment and delays in opening the port of Antwerp.

To fix logistics
  • replace JCH Lee as head of ETO Logistics. He did more to stop Patton and the others than the Wehrmacht. See Stephen Ambrose's comments
  • kick Monty upstairs after Normandy. He botched the Antwerp campaign, by allowing the German 15th Army to retreat into the Scheldt Estuary. Antwerp was useless without the Estuary.
 
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Riain

Banned
The axis kind of needs ASBs to win. They're out numbered, have inferior equipment, few natural resources, chased off a lot of top scientists, Germany had to give up all her patents at the end of WW 1, have terrible internal organization, they have limited industrial production and their key codes are broken. The USSR or USA easily out produce all of them. The British were outproducing Germany by mid-1940.

This is why WW1 is more interesting to me.
 
(*): okay, it's a bit more complicated than that. The primary motive of the telegram was to get American soldiers tied down in case America entered the war; the secondary motive was to get American supplies diverted to fending off the Mexicans, regardless of whether they entered the war or not, and thereby weaken the WEntente.

Though there are ways to butterfly that. Had Wilson died of a stroke or whatever in Summer 1916, President Marshall (who had always been against intervening in Mexico) may pull the troops out several months earlier than OTL. If all hostilities with Mexico are over well before January, there will be no point sending the ZT.
 
Though there are ways to butterfly that. Had Wilson died of a stroke or whatever in Summer 1916, President Marshall (who had always been against intervening in Mexico) may pull the troops out several months earlier than OTL. If all hostilities with Mexico are over well before January, there will be no point sending the ZT.
The Germans believed the Mexicans were worth a shot for other reasons, like Mexican butthurt over the Veracruz incident and irredentism over lands lost to the United States in 1848. They'd tried to get Mexico into the war before in 1914 and '15, and this was simply another edition of that same line of inquiry.

The fact that Mexico was in the midst of a civil war did not stop the Germans from trying, because as the saying goes, "You miss every shot you don't take." And besides, Carranza had expressed some pro-German sympathies, so maybe they might get something this time.

Edit: Also, Marshall was pro-intervention.
 
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David Flin

Gone Fishin'
The Germans believed the Mexicans were worth a shot for other reasons, like Mexican butthurt over the Veracruz incident and irredentism over lands lost to the United States in 1848. They'd tried to get Mexico into the war before in 1914 and '15, and this was simply another edition of that same line of inquiry.

German plans for North America weren't always entirely realistic. I refer, for example, to von Papen's plan for the invasion of Canada,
 
Could you expand on that? I'd always had the impression that he was distinctly negative about it.
He believed it would be best if America could stay out of the war, but that it would have to prepare itself for war just in case, for which he pushed Wilson to build up the military. In public, he was pro-neutrality out of support for Wilson's own stance, but by the 1916 election he had gone from the belief that America had to prepare just in case to the fatalistic belief that America would be forced to enter the war at some point. After the declaration of war in April, he would say that "If we had permitted one more insult to our flag, then even Greece would come over here to kick our dog around." By insults, he means the bank of American grievances that had been building up since 1914 (Black Tom, Lusitania, Ypiranga, etc).

In this, he differed little from the trajectory of public opinion over those 3 years. It's clear that Marshall would not have stayed out of the war if he were put in Wilson's place, and since he was advocating preparedness before Wilson had gotten onboard with the idea, President Marshall would have taken more active measures to build up the American military and might have gotten America into the war slightly earlier on some other grievance.


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A lot depends on what a victory for the cp would be like.
Even assuming Germany takes all of France does this mean that the cp has won?
The UK can still blockade Germany and is in no danger of being invaded by the CP.
I cannot see the British accepting a Europe where Germany dominates most of Europe.
 
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TDM

Kicked
No need to read further.

The French Army mutiny was not, in the strictest sense, a mutiny, more of a work to rule. They refused general offensives with little prospect of success, and wanted rotation and food supply sorted out. They were still prepared to hold the line and conduct local offensives which had a good chance of achieving moderate objectives.

Anyone who describes the French army of that period as mutinous and demoralised really doesn't have a clue what they are talking about. The poilu was not objecting to fighting the war. He was objecting to it being fought badly. No more, no less. Supplies and rotations as efficient as the British, and attacks that were more likely to produce positive results.

To give an idea of the impact of the so-called mutiny, the Germans never realised that there was a mutiny going on in the trenches opposite until after the war.
That's a good way of describing it!
 
What does Germany do with the 3 field armies not needed to conduct such a defence, that IOTL were used in the offensive through Belgium? IOTL 1 field army of 11 divisions, reinforced by 4 defeated 2 Russian field armies of almost 50 divisions, and 2 field armies defeated 3 French field armies in the west on the defensive. Even adding a spare army to each front leaves 3 armies 'spare', but Germany needs 8 field armies because France has 5 and Russia has 8 up to mid 1914 when they went to 10.
Well, for starters, since they are fighting entente forces on German soil a strong reserve is likely appreciated to ensure that an unexpected breakthrough could be quickly responded to. And since the plan is not wholly defensive but involves large counterattacks and encirclements possibly followed by offensive action more armies would likely not go wanting Additionally, as you mention, if Britain is in and the North Sea is a concern, forces would need to be posted there. Support for German allies would also be a good use for more forces. If German aid can wrap up Serbia more quickly or help defend the Austrian frontier against Russia, those are men well used. And finally, if the plan requires less force, the Germans can afford to have a smaller army which improves the situation on the home front slightly.

How does that strategy deal with Britain? That strategy applies to France and Russia, but Britain adds a field army of 7 divisions immediately (rising to 10 by October) to the mix that can be deployed flexibly. IOTL Germany had the 'Northern Army' mobilised on the German North Sea coast, and moved its main units to the siege of Antwerp when it became clear the British wouldn't land in Germany itself. The OTL offensive fought Britain from the outset and ensured its non-French left flank activities were limited to what the RM and RN Division could do; which wasn't much.
Britain may well not be in the war in this scenario. Or at least the Germans can hope they would not be. If they are, they are either likely to aim for the North Sea/Baltic, or be attacking alongside the French. Either way, the plan is still to bring enemies to the table through defeat of forces invading Germany.

think an encirclement would be like a halt day, troops wouldn't be marching hard and the logistics would have some time to catch up, so when they resumed their advance they might at least be strong and well supplied enough by September 5 to defend their position on the Marne.
Partially, perhaps. The major differences are that the troops involved would have to be active trying to reduce the pocket and would therefore be actively using their supplies. And with Charleroi in French hands there is a similar situation to Namur, where the main rail line is in French hands with Germans operating on the far side. As a matter of fact, for a very brief time both Charleroi and Namur would have to be surrounded since Namur didn’t surrender until the 24th. So, yes, to a degree logistics trains would be able to catch up they would be limited first by Namur, then by clearing their way through Namur, then by the Charleroi pocket itself.

BTW this is why WW1 is so much more interesting than WW2. All the troop movements in the world won't stop the A bomb being used, making WW2 strategically uninteresting.
Personally I have to disagree. On two counts actually. First, I find it very interesting to examine the reasons things happened the way they did and what can be changed even if, sometime especially if, it does not actually change who won.

Secondly, as my initial post on this thread shows, I am unconvinced that any amount of troop movements can change the end result of WW1. The more I study them the more parallels I find between the situation of Germany in 1900-1918 and that of Japan in 1930-1945. Though the mismatch between Japan and the US and Commonwealth may be larger than that between Germany and its opponents, but not, IMO, enough to alter the most likely end result.
 
Well, for starters, since they are fighting entente forces on German soil a strong reserve is likely appreciated to ensure that an unexpected breakthrough could be quickly responded to. And since the plan is not wholly defensive but involves large counterattacks and encirclements possibly followed by offensive action more armies would likely not go wanting Additionally, as you mention, if Britain is in and the North Sea is a concern, forces would need to be posted there. Support for German allies would also be a good use for more forces. If German aid can wrap up Serbia more quickly or help defend the Austrian frontier against Russia, those are men well used. And finally, if the plan requires less force, the Germans can afford to have a smaller army which improves the situation on the home front slightly.
It does seem the best German strategy is to keep the peace with Russia (and France and Britain), let them DOW you if they dare, and deploy a whole field army to Austrian Galicia just east of Krakow, making a diplomatic trip line to Russia to not invade Austria-Hungary, while the Austrians keep 2nd army against Serbia and try to occupy the northern 3rd of the country and clear the Danube all the way to Bulgaria (no need to go further), then float the idea of a peace conference. But maybe that is just too much diplomatic finesse to expect of Germany (or maybe anybody in 1914, i.e. the attitude seems to be to let the armies roll and the rest follows) .

(Any British invasion of a Frisian Island or some such thing seems like a Tirpitz dream come true, about the only scenario the German navy could play in with Britain.)
 
From Soviet deployments and mobilization, it looks like Stalin was only a month or so away from rolling up the Germans in 1941. Either that or his deployments were insane as units were crammed next to the border and planes were on airstrips near the border. He more or less dismantled the Stalin line. IMHO the Germans beat him to the punch. The Soviet BT tank series was optimized for running on roads, something Germany had and the USSR did not. Soviet intel had determined that among other things the Germans did not have motor oil designed for cold weather, (Special Tasks: The Memoirs of an Unwanted Witness—A Soviet Spymaster by Pavel Sudoplatov)
The Soviets probably just believed they had enough forces present to deter a German invasion and defeat it if necessary. And were just diplomatic posturing with their forces, sort of like they thought the Germans were, and really didn't expect a war right then. So really more diplomatic and military stupidity, of which most countries were guilty of in that period.

It seems kind of insanity for the Soviets to attack Germany in 1941 without a major Allied second front present, the Germany just demonstrated their military prowess in 1940 for all to see. The risks vs rewards for such a move seem out of place. Doesn't seem like a Stalin thing to do.

(mostly agree with your other points about the WW1 vs WW2 debate though)
 
After the declaration of war in April, he would say that "If we had permitted one more insult to our flag, then even Greece would come over here to kick our dog around." By insults, he means the bank of American grievances that had been building up since 1914 (Black Tom, Lusitania, Ypiranga, etc).

What he said *after* the DoW proves little. Even Bryan supported it after it had been declared.

And supporting preparedness in 1916 - whether from conviction or simply from loyalty to the Administration - is not support for war.

Did he ever express support for intervening in Mexico?
 
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And supporting preparedness in 1916 - whether from conviction or simply from loyalty to the Administration - is not support for war.
He had supported preparedness from the outset of the war, not just since 1916, and he'd pushed on Wilson to enact a military buildup just in case.
By the reelection, he thought that America would be dragged into the war and it was a good thing preparations had been made for that.

If Wilson has a stroke after reelection and Marshall takes the reins, he will still enter the war because his ascension doesn't affect Germany's decision to make another attempt at getting Mexico into the war. As far as Germany is concerned, courting Mexico is a zero-cost strategy that probably won't pan out, but it's still worth a shot on the off-chance that it might.
Did he ever express support for intervening in Mexico?
I meant intervention in WW1, not Mexico. My apologies for the mix-up.

Still, intervention in Mexico is besides the point for WW1, for the reason mentioned above.
 

Riain

Banned
Well, for starters, since they are fighting entente forces on German soil a strong reserve is likely appreciated to ensure that an unexpected breakthrough could be quickly responded to. And since the plan is not wholly defensive but involves large counterattacks and encirclements possibly followed by offensive action more armies would likely not go wanting Additionally, as you mention, if Britain is in and the North Sea is a concern, forces would need to be posted there. Support for German allies would also be a good use for more forces. If German aid can wrap up Serbia more quickly or help defend the Austrian frontier against Russia, those are men well used. And finally, if the plan requires less force, the Germans can afford to have a smaller army which improves the situation on the home front slightly.

A defensive strategy like this sounds like a recipe for a long war on two (maybe three) fronts, and conventional wisdom is that Germany cannot win such a war.

The opportunity of OTLs offensive is that it takes the initiative, and makes use of Germany's strengths rather than let multiple enemies dictate the course of the battles. For example we (and Germany) know Russia can only deploy 2 armies against East Prussia no earlier than M+14 with a 3rd Army in the area at M+42 if Plan G is chosen. It's silly not to utilise such an opportunity.

Britain may well not be in the war in this scenario. Or at least the Germans can hope they would not be. If they are, they are either likely to aim for the North Sea/Baltic, or be attacking alongside the French. Either way, the plan is still to bring enemies to the table through defeat of forces invading Germany.

Germany can't count on British neutrality, that option was lost in February 1912, so HAS to plan on Britain bringing it's full strength to bear.

This isn't the only uncertainty Germany has to plan for. Russia had cases for send it's 7th field Army available at M+42 against either Germany or AH. It would be nice if Russia sent this Army to AH just like it would nice if the BEF wasn't deployed, but you can't stake the planning on things that wold be nice if they happened.

Personally I have to disagree. On two counts actually. First, I find it very interesting to examine the reasons things happened the way they did and what can be changed even if, sometime especially if, it does not actually change who won.

Secondly, as my initial post on this thread shows, I am unconvinced that any amount of troop movements can change the end result of WW1. The more I study them the more parallels I find between the situation of Germany in 1900-1918 and that of Japan in 1930-1945. Though the mismatch between Japan and the US and Commonwealth may be larger than that between Germany and its opponents, but not, IMO, enough to alter the most likely end result.

Fair enough, this keeps these thread alive and new things coming up.

I've learned about the legislation surrounding increases to the German Army in peacetime; I knew there was trickle increases of less than 10,000 from year to year but didn't know there was a jump of 29,000 in 1912 prior to the big jump of ~135,000 that the history books talk about.
 

Riain

Banned
Question for @NoMommsen , @Helmuth48 and anyone else that might answer.

Schlieffen's memo to Moltke in 1905 lacked some 300,000 troops needed. I already knew that there was an increase of 135,000 from 1913, from this thread I've learned that there was an increase of 29,000 in 1912 and that the trickle of troop increases annually was capped at about 10,000 men.

Does this mean that between 1906 and 1911 the Army grew by about 50,000? So by 1914 the Army was about 210,000 men bigger that when Schlieffen drew up his memo?

The associated question is were the annual troop increases the sort Schlieffen (and Moltke) needed? IIUC they were increases to specialised troops; machine gunners etc, and I don't think added to the number of Divisions and Corps available to field armies. It wasn't until the 29,000 troops were added in 1912 that 2 new Divisions were created, and with these 2 new Corps. I imagine it was Corps that Schlieffen wanted with his 300,000 troops rather a steady increase in specialised units.
 
And he dies iin 1916 so it may not to be too hard to take him out of the picture a couple of years sooner.
For example, by sending von Moltke into retirement on time... That would have been better for his own health too!

Still, I wonder if it would have made any difference. As mentioned earlier in this thread, von Moltke had no strategic ideas of his own. That means that he more or less followed the prevailing ideas of his time. Replacing him with another general influenced by the 'cult of the offensive', like many at the time, therefore makes little sense. IMO, it is this 'cult of the offensive' that has killed a defensive strategy in the West. Unfortunately, it is no longer possible to find out exactly how von Moltke came to his decision (Although I have made an attempt in this story :coldsweat:)

Under another general, a comparable 'Schlieffen plan' is most likely deployed as in OTL. The adjustments von Moltke made to von Schlieffen's plan are actually logical reactions to the circumstances. Like keeping the Netherlands neutral in order to have a 'lifeline' in case of a British naval blockade. Or strengthen the left wing, because, unlike in 1905, a French offensive was expected in Lorraine. After all, the objective is to defeat the French armies, whether that would happen in Belgium, northern France or in Lorraine does not matter.

What another general will do differently is to be less passive during the campaign. After all, it is hardly possible to be more passive than Moltke was. But with the limited communication techniques of that time, I don't know if much difference is possible. Maybe win that race to the Sea...
 

Riain

Banned
What another general will do differently is to be less passive during the campaign. After all, it is hardly possible to be more passive than Moltke was. But with the limited communication techniques of that time, I don't know if much difference is possible. Maybe win that race to the Sea...

He could do what great generals have done for millennia, put himself at the decisive point or with the decisive arm. For Kings of history this was with the shock cavalry but for Moltke it would have been with the commanders of the right wing, travelling between HQs to see for himself and have the General Staff on hand to assist these commanders with their problems.

IIUC the Kaiser was at 6th Army HQ when Moltke requested troops, and with the Kaiser's support Rupprecht resisted these calls and instead was reinforced and undertook a failed offensive weeks after he should have transferred to the right wing. If Moltke was with the HQs on the right wing screaming for support it would have been hard even for the Kaiser and Crown Prince of Bavaria to resist.
 
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