Remember, the RN heavies are the primary targets, and this is meant to give the Italians the ability to be able to escort their bombers in while not appearing to have the range to hit Alexandria and/or Gibraltar, let alone with fighter escorts. Losing some fighters is a small price to pay to kill RN Battleships/Battlecruisers/Aircraft carriers in the opening stages of the war.
As far as ranges...
View attachment 813397
Using Bing maps, I can put some distances to the distances from Sardinia to Gibraltar at over 800 miles, one way, and not including the combat time over the target. If we look at Sicily to Alexandria, we are looking at 950 miles one way, without combat time over target. This is both good and bad, as the range precludes fighters at either location, so the British can easily be excused for thinking that a handful of second rate fighters are more than enough to meet any threat by long range bombers. An A6M could (I think) make either flight, as they had IIRC a 2,000 mile range, but that is from early 1940, so inter Axis cooperation is needed for that to happen, and they will only be available in small numbers I should think.
Below is another example of the ranges that could be had, but I think that if this were something the Italian had operational before the shooting started, then the British would recognize Alexandria/Port said are within bomber range, and would thus have been forced to deploy larger fighter forces to Egypt than historically, if they suspect that the bombers based there could have fighter escorts with them.
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520 miles, one way, may or may not be outside of British fears of Italian escort fighters, and I think that basing military aircraft there would be a bad idea, unless only second rate ones were to be employed there pre-war, to give a false sense of security.
So, what kinds of
alternate aircraft would we need Italy to have, to be able to take the fight to the RN bases, on day one of Italy's war, and keep the British feeling that they were safe, right up until their ships start getting sunk?