Background & Chapter I: New Beginnings.
Ok. So this is going to be an ongoing thread eliciting opinions on one of my favourite alternate history topics, British Florida.
This is not my first time delving in to this idea, I have read all the threads on this site, and I also recommend @CeeJay 's Palmera: An African Resettlement TL, which was my original inspiration to write alternate history.
This TL will go down a different path for a couple of reasons, but the main one is that although I 100% sympathize with the sentiment of the TL, I believe it's a bit too optimistic with respect to a Freedmens colony. It's still not only my favourite alternate history, but one of my all-time favourite stories in any genre. Nothing but love for Palmera. But another reason to go down a bit of a different path is to differentiate it.
So my intention is to try to build the history from the Treaty of Paris forward...essentially, trying to remove any of my own biases to write an "objective" TL, insofar as that is possible. To this end, I will be splitting this up into "Chapters", because what is discussed in one part will necessarily impact what happens next.
So, the prelude is that Britain attained West & East Florida from Spain in 1763 at the conclusion of the Seven Years' War (as OTL). Development happens largely as OTL, but the Floridas are not returned to Spain with the 1783 Treaty of Paris. This is the PoD.
Because so much of this is the result of backroom deals in Europe, I think its fairly easy to hand-wave this outcome, although in another thread it is mentioned (I believe accurately) that the failure of the Spanish to take Pensacola (the capital of West Florida) would mean that, while Spain may claim the lands they held - West Florida south of the 31st parallel and west of the Perdido river (in other words, the portion of Louisiana east of the Mississippi as well as the OTL Mississippi and Alabama coasts), Britain would be unlikely IMO to cede West Florida if they retained control of Pensacola.
The first butterfly here is that the 13,375 Loyalists who arrived in East Florida OTL are not forced onward. This means Bahamas doesn't receive 8,000 Loyalists who triple its population, Jamaica doesn't receive as many, there are a few who OTL returned to Georgia/South Carolina after the war who don't here, etc.
The demographic snapshot after the arrival of the Loyalists is like this: [source for numbers: Liberty's Exiles: American Loyalists in the Revolutionary World. Jasanoff, Maya, 2011].
In East Florida, before the Loyalists, it was estimated there were approximately 3,000 non-indigenous settlers, including approximately 2,000 African slaves and 1,000 Europeans. The "vast majority" [c. 700?] are descendants of Andrew Turnbull's New Smyrna Colony...about 250 Greeks, 350 Catalans and about 100 Italians and Corsicans. Most of them reside in the area around the British Fort/Capital/Port, St Augustine. There are also about 300 British settlers and soldiers, some of whom are back-country Scots-Irish from Georgia & the Carolinas.
They are joined by 5,090 white Loyalists, of whom around 4,000 come from South Carolina and most of the remainder from Georgia. They bring with them 8,285 black slaves.
In West Florida, there were believed to be only "a few hundred" British/American settlers, generally soldiers at Pensacola and Scots/Irish backcountry folk in the hillier, less sandy soil adjacent the [OTL] US border. Total non-indigenous population of the West Florida coast was likely around 1,000; it appears there were more than 800 mixed-race French-speaking Creoles who formed the area's artisanal class. Only small numbers of Loyalists arrived in West Florida during the war, but the ones who did tended to be British on the coasts and more Scots-Irish in the hills.
So I guess here is where I'm going to take the first creative liberty - apparently, about 400 white Loyalists with about 2,600 slaves returned to Georgia or South Carolina after the war [from East Florida]. Now, of course it's entirely possible that these would've returned regardless of whether there was the option to stay, but I'm going to propose that "late Loyalists" from Georgia and South Carolina going the other way would cancel out this transfer.
But clearly, the 13,000 Loyalists would not all just stay in East Florida, and, based on what happened in Canada, I'm going to suggest that some 3,000 [approximately 400 whites and their 2,600 slaves] would head onwards to West Florida, so that the population balance of East and West Florida approximately restores itself.
If anyone has any arguments against this, I would love to hear it - that's why I've developed this thread.
So, to re-cap, after the arrivals:
West Florida has a population of approximately 4,000. Roughly 15% are British or American, 20% French creoles, and 65% black slaves.
East Florida has a population of approximately 13,500. Roughly 37% are British or American, 5% are "New Smyrnans", and the remainder are black slaves.
The biggest butterfly outside Florida at this point is the Bahamas, who's population has not tripled and so is somewhere around 4,000 rather than the 11,000 it rose to between 1783 and 1788 OTL. [In fact, since the Bahamas received the majority of the East Floridians IOTL, I believe the period between 1783-1815 in Bahamian history is quite instructive as to how Florida may have attempted to develop].
As Georgia was a Loyalist hotbed, it seems likely that the new governor of East Florida will try to encourage "Late Loyalist" migration as was done in Canada, in addition, it is known that the Loyalists who arrived in Bahamas, TCI, Jamaica, Belize and Dominica from East Florida IOTL imported thousands of African slaves over the next few years.
It is stated that the Bahamians tried to establish cotton plantations, but were unable to due to poor soil conditions.
Florida will be quite different in this regard.
And also, I came across this neat little butterfly:
en.wikipedia.org
TLDR; Sir Francis Levett was a former trader for the Levant Company who settled in East Florida. He went to Georgia after the revolution. In 1790, his slaves became the first people to plant a strain of Egyptian cotton on the Sea Islands of Georgia. This cotton is now called "Sea Island Cotton".
It seems that ITTL, British Florida would get a jump on the high-end, long-staple Sea Island cotton.
My other butterfly is that Lord Dunmore isn't Governor of Bahamas from 1787-1796 [the Bahamas being a meaningless colony, much more like TCI at this point ITTL].
He's going to be put in charge of Florida.
Ok. So without bouncing around too much...
With Jay's treaty being negotiated in 1794 and signed in 1795...how likely is it that Britain cedes the part of West Florida north of the 31st parallel to the USA as "Indian Territory", in the same way they did with the Northwest Country? Would they want to fight to keep it for cotton plantations? Would they realistically be able to?
...and with 1790 being the height of the Nootka Crisis (with Spain and England both claiming the Pacific NW north of San Francisco Bay, and ultimately deciding to "agree to disagree" and leave the area disputed...
I'm curious as to how these negotiations may effect the Floridas...as I previously mentioned, I think it's possible that Britain and Spain have left the Western extreme of West Florida in dispute.
Please, any and all thoughts welcome.
This is not my first time delving in to this idea, I have read all the threads on this site, and I also recommend @CeeJay 's Palmera: An African Resettlement TL, which was my original inspiration to write alternate history.
This TL will go down a different path for a couple of reasons, but the main one is that although I 100% sympathize with the sentiment of the TL, I believe it's a bit too optimistic with respect to a Freedmens colony. It's still not only my favourite alternate history, but one of my all-time favourite stories in any genre. Nothing but love for Palmera. But another reason to go down a bit of a different path is to differentiate it.
So my intention is to try to build the history from the Treaty of Paris forward...essentially, trying to remove any of my own biases to write an "objective" TL, insofar as that is possible. To this end, I will be splitting this up into "Chapters", because what is discussed in one part will necessarily impact what happens next.
So, the prelude is that Britain attained West & East Florida from Spain in 1763 at the conclusion of the Seven Years' War (as OTL). Development happens largely as OTL, but the Floridas are not returned to Spain with the 1783 Treaty of Paris. This is the PoD.
Because so much of this is the result of backroom deals in Europe, I think its fairly easy to hand-wave this outcome, although in another thread it is mentioned (I believe accurately) that the failure of the Spanish to take Pensacola (the capital of West Florida) would mean that, while Spain may claim the lands they held - West Florida south of the 31st parallel and west of the Perdido river (in other words, the portion of Louisiana east of the Mississippi as well as the OTL Mississippi and Alabama coasts), Britain would be unlikely IMO to cede West Florida if they retained control of Pensacola.
The first butterfly here is that the 13,375 Loyalists who arrived in East Florida OTL are not forced onward. This means Bahamas doesn't receive 8,000 Loyalists who triple its population, Jamaica doesn't receive as many, there are a few who OTL returned to Georgia/South Carolina after the war who don't here, etc.
The demographic snapshot after the arrival of the Loyalists is like this: [source for numbers: Liberty's Exiles: American Loyalists in the Revolutionary World. Jasanoff, Maya, 2011].
In East Florida, before the Loyalists, it was estimated there were approximately 3,000 non-indigenous settlers, including approximately 2,000 African slaves and 1,000 Europeans. The "vast majority" [c. 700?] are descendants of Andrew Turnbull's New Smyrna Colony...about 250 Greeks, 350 Catalans and about 100 Italians and Corsicans. Most of them reside in the area around the British Fort/Capital/Port, St Augustine. There are also about 300 British settlers and soldiers, some of whom are back-country Scots-Irish from Georgia & the Carolinas.
They are joined by 5,090 white Loyalists, of whom around 4,000 come from South Carolina and most of the remainder from Georgia. They bring with them 8,285 black slaves.
In West Florida, there were believed to be only "a few hundred" British/American settlers, generally soldiers at Pensacola and Scots/Irish backcountry folk in the hillier, less sandy soil adjacent the [OTL] US border. Total non-indigenous population of the West Florida coast was likely around 1,000; it appears there were more than 800 mixed-race French-speaking Creoles who formed the area's artisanal class. Only small numbers of Loyalists arrived in West Florida during the war, but the ones who did tended to be British on the coasts and more Scots-Irish in the hills.
So I guess here is where I'm going to take the first creative liberty - apparently, about 400 white Loyalists with about 2,600 slaves returned to Georgia or South Carolina after the war [from East Florida]. Now, of course it's entirely possible that these would've returned regardless of whether there was the option to stay, but I'm going to propose that "late Loyalists" from Georgia and South Carolina going the other way would cancel out this transfer.
But clearly, the 13,000 Loyalists would not all just stay in East Florida, and, based on what happened in Canada, I'm going to suggest that some 3,000 [approximately 400 whites and their 2,600 slaves] would head onwards to West Florida, so that the population balance of East and West Florida approximately restores itself.
If anyone has any arguments against this, I would love to hear it - that's why I've developed this thread.
So, to re-cap, after the arrivals:
West Florida has a population of approximately 4,000. Roughly 15% are British or American, 20% French creoles, and 65% black slaves.
East Florida has a population of approximately 13,500. Roughly 37% are British or American, 5% are "New Smyrnans", and the remainder are black slaves.
The biggest butterfly outside Florida at this point is the Bahamas, who's population has not tripled and so is somewhere around 4,000 rather than the 11,000 it rose to between 1783 and 1788 OTL. [In fact, since the Bahamas received the majority of the East Floridians IOTL, I believe the period between 1783-1815 in Bahamian history is quite instructive as to how Florida may have attempted to develop].
As Georgia was a Loyalist hotbed, it seems likely that the new governor of East Florida will try to encourage "Late Loyalist" migration as was done in Canada, in addition, it is known that the Loyalists who arrived in Bahamas, TCI, Jamaica, Belize and Dominica from East Florida IOTL imported thousands of African slaves over the next few years.
It is stated that the Bahamians tried to establish cotton plantations, but were unable to due to poor soil conditions.
Florida will be quite different in this regard.
And also, I came across this neat little butterfly:
Francis Levett - Wikipedia
TLDR; Sir Francis Levett was a former trader for the Levant Company who settled in East Florida. He went to Georgia after the revolution. In 1790, his slaves became the first people to plant a strain of Egyptian cotton on the Sea Islands of Georgia. This cotton is now called "Sea Island Cotton".
It seems that ITTL, British Florida would get a jump on the high-end, long-staple Sea Island cotton.
My other butterfly is that Lord Dunmore isn't Governor of Bahamas from 1787-1796 [the Bahamas being a meaningless colony, much more like TCI at this point ITTL].
He's going to be put in charge of Florida.
Ok. So without bouncing around too much...
With Jay's treaty being negotiated in 1794 and signed in 1795...how likely is it that Britain cedes the part of West Florida north of the 31st parallel to the USA as "Indian Territory", in the same way they did with the Northwest Country? Would they want to fight to keep it for cotton plantations? Would they realistically be able to?
...and with 1790 being the height of the Nootka Crisis (with Spain and England both claiming the Pacific NW north of San Francisco Bay, and ultimately deciding to "agree to disagree" and leave the area disputed...
I'm curious as to how these negotiations may effect the Floridas...as I previously mentioned, I think it's possible that Britain and Spain have left the Western extreme of West Florida in dispute.
Please, any and all thoughts welcome.
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