The Twin Vipers: A TL of the Berlin-Moscow Axis

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what state is the Chinese military in?
By 2000 or so, it is large compared to the armies of Japan and Russia, smaller than that of the US. Compared to the resources that China has available however, it is quite small and less effective than raw numbers would suggest - even 50+ years after the Third Sino-Japanese War there is still considerable distrust of Japan, and Japan is more likely to be backed by the other great powers in the event of a confrontation, so Chinese military thinking is heavily geared towards self-sufficiency in terms of weapons production. Their navy is a non-entity compared to the IJN (which would be considered huge for a non-USN modern navy IOTL, and even more so ITTL), but Chinese coastal defence is quite strong so if Japan was to fight them and attempt a landing it would end badly.
The army meanwhile still suffers from some corruption issues, despite occasional efforts to eradicate that problem, and many units are built around the provinces they were recruited from (where regional loyalties sometimes get in the way of national loyalty). Unfortunately the only truly successful war China has won in the last 150 years is the Second Sino-Japanese War, which taught them a lot of the wrong lessons and made reforms more difficult in its aftermath.

Both sides have the capability to build nuclear weapons, already using nuclear reactors to produce power, but doing so would be a violation of the Geneva Convention... unclear whether this would come into play or not. The chance of outright conflict at this point is rather lower than it was in the early 1950s.

- BNC
 
how are Indian-Chinese relations effected by the existence of independent Tibet?

Tibet would get invaded by China at some point regardless of if it is the KMT or CCP in control - it is considered part of 'China' and unlike Formosa or Manchuria isn't defended by a power strong enough to actually deter the Chinese from marching in.

Instead in the immediate post-war period Indian-Chinese relations would be dominated by China's actions in the war: in a lot of ways they were almost part of the Axis, while India saw its immediate border regions (that is, Iran) invaded by the Red Army. That memory is going to be a sore point for quite a while, and China will care more about the territories taken by Japan than anything in the Himalayas.

Overall modern day relations would be sour, although neither side will really see a fight as worthwhile. India's closer relationship with Japan would not help things with China however.

- BNC
 
Does Japan still hold Outer Manchuria south of the Amur in the present day? What is life like for the Russians there, and is it ruled directly from Tokyo or is it integrated into the Manchurian puppet state? And what is Manchukuo's modern day status, anyway?
 
Does Japan still hold Outer Manchuria south of the Amur in the present day? What is life like for the Russians there, and is it ruled directly from Tokyo or is it integrated into the Manchurian puppet state? And what is Manchukuo's modern day status, anyway?
Japan keeps all their gains. After Puyi's death around 1960 a vote gets held in Manchukuo that ends in the state being annexed into Japan. Whether that vote was rigged or not is open to debate.

- BNC
 
Is Japanese imperialism TTL still murderously insane?
The crazy folks were all out of power by about 1943, and now that they've humiliated the Russians they've calmed down a lot. The national attitude is generally to fiercely defend the land they already have (Korean or Manchurian independence is a big no-no), but not seek out anything more than what they already have.

- BNC
 
Given the fact aid was provided and one could argue less devastation without three crazed nazi lebensraum policies, how if Russia doing by modern day as of now?
I was thinking once industries are revived somewhat similar to otl japan. Once the industrial power built up by Stalin is revived and revitalized, Russia will become a “weak powerful” country.
As in not easy to invade, but not really very strong offensive capabilities.
Also, how are living standards? Given a market economy and aid probably expanded them higher than OTL (as well as not having Nazi armies rampage in the entire west). Also I’ll add agric sector can be revived and modernized without disastrous soviet policies.
Politically, how much revisionism is practiced as full on de stalinization cannot be practiced by the west. Is there any attempt to blame most of the war crimes on the NKVD and absolve much of the red army, and how much tit for tat between white Russia and Poland/Ukraine/Baltic’s diplomatically and Russian revisionism/irredentism? I would assume like otl Japanese and Koreans, some never patch up.
Sorry, a lot. Thanks
Love your story though!
 
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Is Japanese imperialism TTL still murderously insane?
The crazy folks were all out of power by about 1943, and now that they've humiliated the Russians they've calmed down a lot. The national attitude is generally to fiercely defend the land they already have (Korean or Manchurian independence is a big no-no), but not seek out anything more than what they already have.

- BNC

In terms of direct rule anyway - Odds are good that any countries in SE Asia that went independent are fairly close to Japan in terms of trade, security partnerships etc.
 
Given the fact aid was provided and one could argue less devastation without three crazed nazi lebensraum policies, how if Russia doing by modern day as of now?
I was thinking once industries are revived somewhat similar to otl japan. Once the industrial power built up by Stalin is revived and revitalized, Russia will become a “weak powerful” country.
As in not easy to invade, but not really very strong offensive capabilities.
Also, how are living standards? Given a market economy and aid probably expanded them higher than OTL (as well as not having Nazi armies rampage in the entire west). Also I’ll add agric sector can be revived and modernized without disastrous soviet policies.
Politically, how much revisionism is practiced as full on de stalinization cannot be practiced by the west. Is there any attempt to blame most of the war crimes on the NKVD and absolve much of the red army, and how much tit for tat between white Russia and Poland/Ukraine/Baltic’s diplomatically and Russian revisionism/irredentism? I would assume like otl Japanese and Koreans, some never patch up.
Sorry, a lot. Thanks
Love your story though!
Russia today is doing better than OTL, though not dramatically so. Most of their GDP comes from agriculture and other primary industries, while a lot of heavy industry is "tainted" with communism and mass expansion efforts like the 5 year plans aren't popular with the White governments. All the goods can be traded for anyway, and many are built with Russian steel regardless (think about the modern Australian economy for a rough comparison). Rebuilding efforts would be a lot slower than Japan - the best resource sites in the Ukraine are now in a different country and there's nothing like the Korean war to help rebuild business.

De-stalinisation isn't really something pushed by the Allies so much as is a result of the Whites being there in the first place (although the Allies no doubt encourage them). Stalin isn't just the big jerk who got the country into a war they would lose and killed millions of people like Hitler, he's also the jerk that started a whole bunch of famines in the 1930s and tried to kill religion (modern Russia ITTL is notably more religious). And the Whites hate him just because the communists tossed them out of power in 1918. The fact that the communists tried to overthrow the Republic again shortly after the Allies left doesn't help them either. The result is a state that tries to separate itself from its past as much as possible and actively denounces everyone who had any sort of power during the 1922-46 time. Moreso than Germany.
War crimes on the Soviet side were very much a NKVD thing - the Red Army generally behaved itself when fighting the Allies and was somewhat removed from the bad stuff (the NKVD was in Poland killing Jews and others, while the Army was fighting the Allies in Germany). Yes the Red Army did some bad things too, but nowhere near the extent of the OTL Wehrmacht, and generally the White government doesn't care that much. Mostly because the NKVD were the communist thugs and it is much easier to just blame communists for things.

Foreign relations are not exactly Russia's strong point - they've patched things up with Japan (which only really took a few near-worthless scraps of Siberia), but their European neighbours aren't too happy with them - but that's been the case for 300+ years. Ukraine in particular is fiercely nationalistic and doesn't think much of the country that lorded over them and then starved heaps of them once Stalin came along. Korea/Japan is a good analogue there. Poland and the Baltics (and Finland for that matter) have mended the fences a bit better, due to having all the land that they wanted and a more democratic government.
Russia isn't really powerful enough to afford antagonising its neighbours either - Poland and the Ukraine both distrust Russia, and the moment it makes a move on one the other is sure to come to their aid (not to mention what other powers are likely to do if they see what will be perceived as Stalin 2.0)

- BNC
 
Russia today is doing better than OTL, though not dramatically so. Most of their GDP comes from agriculture and other primary industries, while a lot of heavy industry is "tainted" with communism and mass expansion efforts like the 5 year plans aren't popular with the White governments. All the goods can be traded for anyway, and many are built with Russian steel regardless (think about the modern Australian economy for a rough comparison). Rebuilding efforts would be a lot slower than Japan - the best resource sites in the Ukraine are now in a different country and there's nothing like the Korean war to help rebuild business.

De-stalinisation isn't really something pushed by the Allies so much as is a result of the Whites being there in the first place (although the Allies no doubt encourage them). Stalin isn't just the big jerk who got the country into a war they would lose and killed millions of people like Hitler, he's also the jerk that started a whole bunch of famines in the 1930s and tried to kill religion (modern Russia ITTL is notably more religious). And the Whites hate him just because the communists tossed them out of power in 1918. The fact that the communists tried to overthrow the Republic again shortly after the Allies left doesn't help them either. The result is a state that tries to separate itself from its past as much as possible and actively denounces everyone who had any sort of power during the 1922-46 time. Moreso than Germany.
War crimes on the Soviet side were very much a NKVD thing - the Red Army generally behaved itself when fighting the Allies and was somewhat removed from the bad stuff (the NKVD was in Poland killing Jews and others, while the Army was fighting the Allies in Germany). Yes the Red Army did some bad things too, but nowhere near the extent of the OTL Wehrmacht, and generally the White government doesn't care that much. Mostly because the NKVD were the communist thugs and it is much easier to just blame communists for things.

Foreign relations are not exactly Russia's strong point - they've patched things up with Japan (which only really took a few near-worthless scraps of Siberia), but their European neighbours aren't too happy with them - but that's been the case for 300+ years. Ukraine in particular is fiercely nationalistic and doesn't think much of the country that lorded over them and then starved heaps of them once Stalin came along. Korea/Japan is a good analogue there. Poland and the Baltics (and Finland for that matter) have mended the fences a bit better, due to having all the land that they wanted and a more democratic government.
Russia isn't really powerful enough to afford antagonising its neighbours either - Poland and the Ukraine both distrust Russia, and the moment it makes a move on one the other is sure to come to their aid (not to mention what other powers are likely to do if they see what will be perceived as Stalin 2.0)

- BNC
So I take it Privitization was a sort of grueling process for dealing with the industries Stalin created in the five year plans?
It seems with the strong agric focus farmers will be doing well, quite better than otl, while urban workers not so much.
How is the Russian military? Was it limited after the war at all, and how much former Soviet military infrastructure and equipment is still in use immediately post war?
In terms of domestic politics, are there weird National Bolshevik neo Stalinists at all?
Note I am not talking a major force but an extreme fringe of losers. I imagine they would say that the white movement “stabbed holy red Russia in the back” as well as a fair share of minority hate and blame.
Edit: I got one more question (sorry for probably being really annoying, I just love this timeline) how strong is Japanese *cultural* influence in this timeline? Given it is bigger and has a better reputation larger dispora
 
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So I take it Privitization was a sort of grueling process for dealing with the industries Stalin created in the five year plans?
It seems with the strong agric focus farmers will be doing well, quite better than otl, while urban workers not so much.
How is the Russian military? Was it limited after the war at all, and how much former Soviet military infrastructure and equipment is still in use immediately post war?
In terms of domestic politics, are there weird National Bolshevik neo Stalinists at all?
Note I am not talking a major force but an extreme fringe of losers. I imagine they would say that the white movement “stabbed holy red Russia in the back” as well as a fair share of minority hate and blame.
Edit: I got one more question (sorry for probably being really annoying, I just love this timeline) how strong is Japanese *cultural* influence in this timeline? Given it is bigger and has a better reputation larger dispora

Privatisation, as you say, was a fairly slow process (a lot of ex-communist party members that don't want to lose their control), that's one of the big jobs the Allied occupation had to help with. Urban workers are still doing all right (they're not expected to fulfill quotas at risk of death any more, and they have a chance to partially own their businesses now)

The army wasn't technically limited (Versailles is proof enough that that doesn't really work), but a large demobilisation was "encouraged" by the Allies and the money needed to rebuild a 6M man army didn't really exist throughout the 50s. After that the cost of maintaining a really large force was such that there's no public support for it. An F-100 costs a lot more than a P-40 after all.

There's always going to be fringe groups, but Stalinists aren't ever going to get close to power again in Russia - modern Russians see Stalinism as "starve us, take God away and get in wars", three things that the population is very much opposed to. Those groups blame everyone from the Americans to the Jews for whatever they perceive to be "problems", which reduces the amount of support that they could theoretically get in tough times.

Japanese culture is very strong across much of Asia ITTL - everything within Japanese borders has by now been rebuilt into a Japanese-style look (even Vladivostok is more distinctly 'Japanese' than 'European' by 2020). A fair number of high-ranking Japanese businesses also have major presences in various countries (the Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam chief among them), with all the cultural influence that comes along with that. Emigration out of Japan is quite minimal (it is generally frowned upon within Japan and there's not much reason to leave for most people - if they don't like the Home Islands there is always Manchuria), so most influence comes from the corporate world rather than the establishment of large Japanese communities outside Japan.

- BNC
 
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