WW2: What if Vichy declares war on Britain after attack on Mers-el-Kébir?

[NOMISYRRUC]

Arabs didn't have the explosives to do a proper job of it.
Wingate made no friends with the local Arabs from the harsh methods he used. Death Squads, pretty much.

One of the reasons he got kicked out of command there, his very ardent Pro-Zionist views(and actions) didn't go over well with those whos views leaned more to the Arabs in the Mandate area

I also think that the pipelines, oil refineries and ports will be high priority targets for the RAF.

However, if they're bombing Vichy targets in the Levant they aren't bombing Italian targets elsewhere in the Middle East and Mediterranean.

I think that the 4 squadrons that were sent to Greece by the end of 1940 IOTL will be sent to Palestine ITTL. One of the RAF pilots that served in Greece was Marmaduke Thomas St John Pattle so his transfer alone is likely to mean many fewer Regia Aeronautica and Luftwaffe losses over Greece and a very high loss rate for the Vichy air force in Syria.

 

[Coulsdon Eagle]

I also think that the pipelines, oil refineries and ports will be high priority targets for the RAF.

However, if they're bombing Vichy targets in the Levant they aren't bombing Italian targets elsewhere in the Middle East and Mediterranean.

I think that the 4 squadrons that were sent to Greece by the end of 1940 IOTL will be sent to Palestine ITTL. One of the RAF pilots that served in Greece was Marmaduke Thomas St John Pattle so his transfer alone is likely to mean many fewer Regia Aeronautica and Luftwaffe losses over Greece and a very high loss rate for the Vichy air force in Syria.

If the refineries are in range of naval guns then the French in the Eastern Med will struggle to keep the RN from Alex leaving a calling card or two.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

If the refineries are in range of naval guns then the French in the Eastern Med will struggle to keep the RN from Alex leaving a calling card or two.

I don't know about the refineries, but the oil storage tanks must have been in range. See this.

As regards the terminal oil ports of Haifa and Syrian Tripoli, the position in peace time was that France drew about three-quarters of the combined output of these ports. The French now said that they did not intend to draw any Iraq oil in time of war. Interest therefore centred mainly on Haifa, where a refinery was under construction, due to be completed in June 1940. The crude oil, unrefined as delivered by the pipeline, was not suitable as naval fuel; the storage tanks at Haifa on the Bay of Acre offered a most conspicuous target for air or sea bombardment; and these factors coupled with a certain amount of anxiety as to the safety of the pipeline itself resulted in the Admiralty's decision not to count for the present upon the output of Haifa in war time. Instead they would use part of the storage accommodation for a reserve stock of naval fuel oil, brought from elsewhere. Haifa was, however, to be used as a base for light naval forces in the eastern basin, though the seaward defences were incomplete and no anti-aircraft defences had as yet been installed.

That was part of a larger quote that I originally put in Post 91 and it's what the local British commanders thought in 1939.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

If the refineries are in range of naval guns then the French in the Eastern Med will struggle to keep the RN from Alex leaving a calling card or two.

OTOH if the Axis are able to establish strong air forces in Syria it would be the British Mediterranean Fleet receiving a calling card for two from the Luftwaffe, Regia Aeronautica and the Aéronautique Navale.

The RN didn't do too well against the Luftwaffe off southern Norway during the Norwegian Campaign. It also received bloody noses from the Luftwaffe off Dunkirk, Malta in January 1941 and during the evacuation of Crete.

The Aéronautique Navale had some shore based torpedo-bomber and dive-bomber units. Does anyone know how good they were?

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

You're making an enormous supposition they'd stay in France, rather than head for Algeria with the Poles. Moreover, you're presuming they'd inform Vichy military leadership, rather than keep the secret to protect loyal Frenchmen on the other side.

The Poles were evacuated to Algeria by the Deuxiéme Bureau; the minders went too. Remember that at this time, Algeria is part of France. As to "loyal Frenchmen on the other side", who would that be? The handful of French who had joined Free France? Those men were not loyal to the legal government of France, and were in fact participants in acts of war against it. (Though not till later in 1940.)

If France is at war against Britain, then the breach in German security endangers thousands of French soldiers and sailors engaged in joint operations with the Germans.

 

[phx1138]

The Poles were evacuated to Algeria by the Deuxiéme Bureau; the minders went too. Remember that at this time, Algeria is part of France.

Not the part occupied by Germans, nor (yet) clearly under control of Vichy.

As to "loyal Frenchmen on the other side", who would that be? The handful of French who had joined Free France? Those men were not loyal to the legal government of France, and were in fact participants in acts of war against it. (Though not till later in 1940.)

I don't consider the collaborationist Vichy regime "legitimate".

If France is at war against Britain, then the breach in German security endangers thousands of French soldiers and sailors engaged in joint operations with the Germans.

Do you think the DB can't tell Vichy isn't the kind of master they want to serve? Let alone tell turning over this information benefits the Germans? Which is quite aside what the Poles are likely to think, or want.

That leaves DB in the position of having to choose between Vichy & the Germans, & the Brits, hostile to Vichy & the Germans. Would they be willing to sacrifice collaborators? I think so. It might not be an easy call, but I think they'd ultimately make it. That being so, I expect the Poles would be exfil'd through Algeria (or Syria) into Egypt & ultimately to Britain.

It might be there is a more direct route: make a deal with the Brits to send a sub (two?) to take the Poles out, & skip Algeria entire.

 

[TonyA]

As I pointed out earlier, the USN was planning and preparing for intervention in Latin America. Plan RUBBER was a relatively latecomer in early 1942. The intelligence effort in Latin America is under documented but real. Most folks are aware the singer & actor Eddy Arnold copped a medal pulling wounded Marines off the reef at Betio Island in 1943. But, earlier he circulated in Mexico as a USN intelligence officer. Identifying and tracking suspected German agents.

Don't you mean Eddie Albert rather than Eddy Arnold? Albert was a TV favorite of my youth...

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Don't you mean Eddie Albert rather than Eddy Arnold? Albert was a TV favorite of my youth...

Doh!

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

... As to "loyal Frenchmen on the other side", who would that be? The handful of French who had joined Free France? Those men were not loyal to the legal government of France, and were in fact participants in acts of war against it. (Though not till later in 1940.) ...

There is a fundamental defect is assuming the French citizenry all become good Axis supporters just because a Collaborationist government signs onto the former enemies. Simply the number of French who hated Germany makes this a non starter. Toss in antifascists & Laval or whoever is going to be headed towards a civil war. One of the things that Vylon Disigma fails to wrestle with in the OP is why a French citizenry who had such difficulty repeling a invader would have the slightest interest in continuing at war with anyone else. The Brits making a brief & rather stupid attack on some French warships looks like a very weak rational, when the widespread bombing of French cities and two million German soldiers trampling the country side resulted in broken morale. OTL about the only thing that earned Petains regime much support was Petain. That he'd rather choke in 1940 than ally with the Germans takes him out of any alliance equation. The likes of Laval & worse who'd have actually attempted such a thing (& even Laval is questionable for such a action) would have seen the support and cooperation of the bulk of the French population vaporize in the next few months, or days in many cases. The Facist government in Italy experienced just that when it surrendered in September 1943. the Army vaporized with en mass desertions & the citizenry were notable in their absence of support for the 'legitimate' Italian government in the following weeks.

The French military intelligence was no different. Hardly a hotbed of Germanophiles and Facists. I seen nothing certain of the Polish intelligence officers being smoothly handed over to the Germans, or otherwise 'neutralized'.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

One of the things that Vylon Disigma fails to wrestle with in the OP is why a French citizenry who had such difficulty repeling a invader would have the slightest interest in continuing at war with anyone else.

Well, duh.

The Brits making a brief & rather stupid attack on some French warships looks like a very weak rational, when the widespread bombing of French cities and two million German soldiers trampling the country side resulted in broken morale.

There is one difference: Britain's action seems treacherous. France declared war on Germany, so Germany struck at France. But France hasn't done anything to Britain.

The Facist government in Italy experienced just that when it surrendered in September 1943. the Army vaporized with en mass desertions & the citizenry were notable in their absence of support for the 'legitimate' Italian government in the following weeks.

There was actually a fair amount of active support for the Allies, both from the armed forces and the population. Major Vladimir "Popski" Peniakoff was operating in south Italy at this time with his celebrated "Private Army". He found Italian commanders showing an almost unseemly eagerness to cooperate with their former enemies. The garrison of Bari even fought off an attempt by some German engineers to blow up the docks. His force were welcomed in the villages, many people gave them information about the Germans, and one clever fellow helped them steal the complete supply returns from a German divisional HQ.

I seen nothing certain of the Polish intelligence officers being smoothly handed over to the Germans, or otherwise 'neutralized'.

It doesn't seem likely to me, unless France actually commits to fighting Britain as a German ally (which I agree is almost impossible). But in that unlikely situation, would the intelligence men repudiate the action of their lawful government, and conspire against the battlefield safety of French troops? Because that's the alternative, and it doesn't seem likely either.

 

[Michele]

The Facist government in Italy experienced just that when it surrendered in September 1943. the Army vaporized with en mass desertions & the citizenry were notable in their absence of support for the 'legitimate' Italian government in the following weeks.

The Italian government was no longer Fascist when it surrendered. The Fascist government ended on July 25th, the surrender was on September 8.
The Army did disband and was affected by mass desertions, but much of all of that was due to the fact that the generals issued no orders, or vague ones, and were the first to abandon their posts. Wherever the officers remained in place and issued consistent orders, the Regio Esercito units at least tried to oppose the Germans, from Rome to Cephalonia. Almost everywhere without success, but in Serbia a whole division remained united, welcomed remnants from other units, passed on the side of the partisans, and kept fighting through to the end of the war.
As to the civilians, areas of the country that the Germans weren't overly interested in and where the Allies had not yet arrived to were quickly cleared of Germans by the deserting Italian soldiers and by civilians. Another poster has mentioned Bari, in Puglia; Sardinia is another region. Matera was freed from the Germans with no Allied intervention on September 21. All of these areas did support the legitimate Italian government, the King's. Sure, the Germans weren't terribly intentioned to hold on to these territories; had they been, possibly all of this would have ended with the defeat of the spontaneous uprisings. But it's not as if the Italians knew that the Germans would easily accept the eviction, when they decided to attack them.
And as early as December 8, 1943 - a mere 3 months after the surrender - the Italian army was fielding a brigade alongside Texans and against Germans.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Here's some more information on the growth of the BEC land forces in the Middle East and Mediterranean from June 1940 to February 1941

There were 6 British Empire and Commonwealth (BEC) divisions in the Mediterranean and Middle East when Italy declared war. However, they were all under-strength.

1. 7th Armoured Division formed in Egypt before World War II in Egypt as the Mobile Division. At the outbreak of war it was re-designated the Armoured Division (Egypt) and on 19/02/40 the 7th Armoured Division.
2. 1st Cavalry Division formed in the UK on 31/10/39. It was at sea between 23/01/40 and 30/01/40. It disembarked in Palestine on 31/01/40. On 01/08/41 it was re-designated the 10th Armoured Division.
3. 6th Infantry Division formed in Egypt by re-designating 7th Infantry Division. On 17/06/1940 the Divisional Headquarters was re-designated HQ Western Desert Force. The 6th Infantry Division was re-formed in Egypt on 17/02/41. It was re-designated 70th Infantry Division on 10/10/41.
4. 6th Australian Division. The division was in Palestine when Italy declared war with two brigades. It seems to have been brought to full strength by the end of September 1940.
5. 4th Indian Division. The division was in Egypt when Italy declared war with 2 brigades. It looks as if it was brought to full strength in September 1940 by incorporating a brigade from the 5th Indian Division. After Operation Compass the division was sent to The Sudan.
6. 2nd New Zealand Division. The division was in Egypt when Italy declared war with one brigade. It seems to have been brought to full strength by the end of September 1940.

Another 7 divisions were either formed in the Middle East or arrived there between July 1940 and February 1941. They are arranged in what I think is the chronological order of their arrival in the Middle East or formation.

1. 2nd (African) Division was formed in East Africa on 19/07/1940. It was re-designated the 12th (Africa) Division on 24/11/1940.
2. 1st (African) Division was formed in East Africa on 24/07/1940. It was re-designed the 11th (Africa) Division on 24/11/1940.
3. 5th Indian Division. The division (less one brigade) disembarked at Port Sudan in September 1940. It was brought to full strength by absorbing the 3 British infantry battalions in the country. Its third brigade seems to have gone to Egypt to bring the 4th Indian Division up to full strength.
4. 1st South African Division. The 1st South African Brigade arrived at Mombassa in the second half of July 1940 and been expanded into a division by November 1940.
5. 7th Australian Division. This division arrived sometime between 1st September 1940 and 31st December 1940.
6. 9th Australian Division. I think this division arrived in January 1941.
7. 2nd Armoured Division formed in the UK on 15/12/39. It was at sea between 26/10/40 and 31/12/40. It arrived in Egypt on 01/01/41. The division's headquarters was captured on 08/04/41 and the division was formally disbanded in Egypt on 10/05/1941.

I'm confident that the dates for the African and British are correct because they come from the book Orders of Battle. The dates for the Australian, Indian, New Zealand and South African divisions are as far as I can work out from the British official history of the war in the Mediterranean and Middle East on Hyperwar.

Based on that my guess is that on 28th October 1940 (the date Italy declared war on Greece) the BEC land forces in the theatre consisted of 10 divisions as follows:

6 divisions in Egypt and Palestine

7th Armoured Division
1st Cavalry Division
6th Infantry Division without a divisional headquarters
2nd New Zealand Division
4th Indian Division
6th Australian Division​

1 division in The Sudan

5th Indian Division​

3 divisions in East Africa

1st South African Division but without its divisional headquarters which did not arrive until November
1st Africa Division
2nd Africa Division​

 

[PauL62]

I will made a thread into the thread but I am wondering this:
if France is in the axis, it will bethe war treated as a defeated after the war... What happens to its territories, expecially Alsace-Lorraine? Would it be given back to France or not?

 

[Alanith]

I will made a thread into the thread but I am wondering this:
if France is in the axis, it will bethe war treated as a defeated after the war... What happens to its territories, expecially Alsace-Lorraine? Would it be given back to France or not?

I think it'd be politically impossible to treat France like an enemy nation, even if it's effectively true. You'd probably see a face saving gesture declaring Free France as the legitimate french government and a lot of pretending the Vichy years didn't happen.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

So far we've decided that had Vichy declared war on Great Britain in July 1940 the Iraqis would have revolted earlier. It has also been suggested that the Palestinian Arabs would renew their revolt against British rule. AIUI the British were very unpopular in Egypt. What are the chances of the Egyptians jumping on the bandwagon in the second half of 1940 and revolting against the British ITTL?

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Obviously they can still use the Suez. Even though I wasn't as clear as I should have been, what I meant was that, in the short term, nothing from the Atlantic could reinforce Cunningham at Alexandria. I somehow doubt, given all the other problems facing them, that the British could afford to keep 2 carriers out of action long enough for them to make the round trip via the Cape.

Italy may also choose to park its battleships at Algiers or Oran in order to keep the pressure on Gibraltar, butterflying the attack on them that way.

Point taken.

I've been making the posts about the build up of the BEC air and land forces in the Mediterranean and Middle East in the second half of 1940 IOTL partially to show the forces that might be available for an attack on Iraq and Syria. However, I have also made them because Vichy declaring war on Great Britain might reduce/delay their arrival of reinforcements. Not just new air squadrons and army formations, but also the replacements needed to keep them up to strength and the consumables like ammunition needed to make them fight.

The British won't be able to fly long-range aircraft direct from the UK to Egypt via Gibraltar and Malta. The air route from Takoradi in the Gold Coast to Egypt might be disrupted.

What will the increase in British controlled merchant shipping losses be once German surface warships and submarines start operating from Casablanca? Will the increase in losses decrease the flow of men and material to the Middle East?

We've speculated about the number of Vichy Frenchmen who would be prepared to go out and fight the British (instead of defend Vichy French territory against British attack). However, if they can find crews for their 65 submarines and 6 best cruisers (the La Galissonnière class) how many British controlled ships will they be able to sink?

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

I will made a thread into the thread but I am wondering this:
if France is in the axis, it will bethe war treated as a defeated after the war... What happens to its territories, expecially Alsace-Lorraine? Would it be given back to France or not?

I think it'd be politically impossible to treat France like an enemy nation, even if it's effectively true. You'd probably see a face saving gesture declaring Free France as the legitimate french government and a lot of pretending the Vichy years didn't happen.

OTL the French dealt with the collaborators with charges of treason & other crimes, ect... I'd think it would be no different in this scenario. Post liberation the Free French or W Allied French government would be treated as a full ally the same as OTL. If my take is correct & France and the colonies devolve into civil war between the Axis French government and the assorted anti German or assorted anti Facist groups there will be a earlier and probably stronger Allied France in the game. We could se a different leader than DeGualle emerge in this situation. Nothing was set in stone about his rise. If we see very many of senior join with the anti German/proAllied faction they are probably a better bet than the relatively junior and less connected DeGaulle.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

The Italian government was no longer Fascist when it surrendered. The Fascist government ended on July 25th, the surrender was on September 8.

& what leaders of the other major parties constituted that government? Heres a hint: None. Badoglio & assorted former Fascists continued as the official Italian government into 1944. Efforts to include leaders from the reemerging political parties were rejected & the Allies continued to support Badoglios government. It was some nine months later that a new government, not of former Fascists was formed.

The Army did disband and was affected by mass desertions, but much of all of that was due to the fact that the generals issued no orders, or vague ones, and were the first to abandon their posts. Wherever the officers remained in place and issued consistent orders, the Regio Esercito units at least tried to oppose the Germans, from Rome to Cephalonia. Almost everywhere without success, but in Serbia a whole division remained united, welcomed remnants from other units, passed on the side of the partisans, and kept fighting through to the end of the war.

Conversely Italian officers and the hard core remnant of the Fascists deserted to the Germans & formed Axis allied army. They kept busy fighting the Communists along side assorted residual Black Shirts & other new Fascist groups.

... And as early as December 8, 1943 - a mere 3 months after the surrender - the Italian army was fielding a brigade alongside Texans and against Germans.

...and not much more than that during the next two years. On paper the pro Allied government had a fair sized army. The reality was it never reached the effectiveness of the new Free French army that was also reorganized and reequipped in 1943. The French had a entire corps fighting in Italy after the surrender & for half of 1944.

 

[Michele]

& what leaders of the other major parties constituted that government? Heres a hint: None. Badoglio & assorted former Fascists continued as the official Italian government into 1944. Efforts to include leaders from the reemerging political parties were rejected & the Allies continued to support Badoglios government. It was some nine months later that a new government, not of former Fascists was formed.

The key word being former. I have no doubt that none of the ministers had become a fervent anti-Fascist overnight, but the government as such was not fascist - and it hardly could have been given that the Fascist Party was disbanded on August 2 by that government. The Blackshirt militia came under the command of a regular army general, and then moved under the control of the army. Etc.

Conversely Italian officers and the hard core remnant of the Fascists deserted to the Germans & formed Axis allied army. They kept busy fighting the Communists along side assorted residual Black Shirts & other new Fascist groups.

Sure. Some Italian officers.

...and not much more than that during the next two years. On paper the pro Allied government had a fair sized army. The reality was it never reached the effectiveness of the new Free French army that was also reorganized and reequipped in 1943. The French had a entire corps fighting in Italy after the surrender & for half of 1944.

Well, sure. It helped the French that three quarters of the men of the "French" troops were actually Moroccans (most of them), Algerians, Tunisians, and some coming from as far as Djibouti and the Pacific. As to the non-colonial units, at least a couple of battalions were of the French foreign legion, so while they certainly served France under the French flag and in the French army, calling them "French" with no other qualification is a bit of a stretch.
The Moroccans and Algerians, in particular, and among them, the semi-irregular Goumiers even more, were volunteers who had joined because the pay, however meager for a Frenchman, was fine for the cost of living in their country.

As to the co-belligerent Italians, they had 6 combat brigades by the end of the war, which is 6 times the initial contribution I mentioned. They would have wanted to provide more troops, but the problem was that by mid-1944, battlefield units (as opposed to those that did relieve Allied troops in many other rear-area roles) were expected to be equipped with standardized British kit, and, understandably, the British trusted real Allies more with their stuff, than these latecomers.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

The key word being former. I have no doubt that none of the ministers had become a fervent anti-Fascist overnight, but the government as such was not fascist - and it hardly could have been given that the Fascist Party was disbanded on August 2 by that government.

Still they were the same men. & Until Aprill 1944 not a single member of another party participated in this government.

The Blackshirt militia came under the command of a regular army general, and then moved under the control of the army. Etc.

Never the less they filled the ranks of the Republic of Salos army quite well. That lot fielded a lot more than six brigades. A fair portion of them did not enter that army, but formed various ad hoc and sanctioned groups who helped suppress the assorted pro Allied and anti Facist groups in the Axis zone.

Quibbling over details aside the point is the Italian citizenry & army disintegrated & drifted into a civil war. Who held the upper hand depended on which occupation zone they chanced to be in. Bagdoglios government was ineffective, unpopular, and not a drag for the Allies. Mussolinis new regime in the north only slightly better, mostly because the die hard Racists could rally around that flag. In the south the revived Socialist, Communist, and other parties were the rally points for the Italians at large.

Given the fractionalization of the French 1941-1942 & their flirtation with civil war by 1943 I see very short odds of a mass abandonment of loyalty to a Collaborationist government. Hatred of the Germans ran too deep in France for this to be popular, continuation of the war would be jus as unpopular. The French supported Petain because he tried very hard to keep France out of the war & neutral. Laval or whoever would not have the same political traction. After that the assorted Catholic, Socialist, Republican, and Communist groups are going to see the future in other directions than with a French puppet in German dominated Europe.