WW2: What if Vichy declares war on Britain after attack on Mers-el-Kébir?
- Thread starter Vylon Disigma
- Start date
The twom things I'm contemplating at this point are: 1. How many colonial governors Army generals would have been againt a German alliance to the point of non cooperations with the Metropolitan government, and/or willing to join a 'Free French coalition in the next 3-6 months.
2. What portion of the French fleet deserts to any nominal anti collaborationist leadership?
OTL less than 5% of the French transferred allegiance in the opening months of of Petains regime. It was long after the failure to achieve a peace treaty, and the attack on the USSR that more seriously considered a Free French option. If in this case the change in allegiance is 15 or 20% in 3-6 months it gives such a FF entity a lot more traction politically. If well supported by the US and if Churchill can avoid further blunders it could look like a viable alternative for the other colonies & other French.
2. What portion of the French fleet deserts to any nominal anti collaborationist leadership?
OTL less than 5% of the French transferred allegiance in the opening months of of Petains regime. It was long after the failure to achieve a peace treaty, and the attack on the USSR that more seriously considered a Free French option. If in this case the change in allegiance is 15 or 20% in 3-6 months it gives such a FF entity a lot more traction politically. If well supported by the US and if Churchill can avoid further blunders it could look like a viable alternative for the other colonies & other French.
One thing I find interesting is the possibility of Japan after the Indochina occupation, attempt to get in the allies good books by declaring war on Germany. I imagine Japan would not send men to Europe except a token brigade or something, but generally helping out with the naval effort especially in the Med and Indian Ocean. I find the idea of a Italo-Japanese naval battle pretty novel.
Make a brigade out of all the hothead junior officers prone to assassinate people if the government makes peace with China. Feed them into a killing zone. Repeat.
My understanding is that that nationalist Gov't in China had zero intention of making peace with Japan on any terms other than Japan gets out of China.
They already have that, and in abundance. The French army of Africa was still quite well equipped, and in case of open hostilities actually waged by the consent of officers and troops, definitely able to create a nightmare situation for the British, possibly manageable only with immediate American help.
Depending on when this all occurs you might see Catroux declare for free France as he almost did otl
He ignored the otl order to step down and only resigned on July 20th to go join Gaulle. Two weeks is a lot of time, I'd assume this would be rushed through to capitalise on French public outrage.
If FIC is free France so are the Pacific and that means Hitler doesn't need to grant Japan permission. Japan can claim they want to help Vichy when they invade this time. Though Catroux is likely to fold to Japanese pressure since that was his strategy otl
Edit : also since usa recognised vichy its likely France and the USA come to an agreement. For the duration of the war French possessions in the americas will be demilitarised and occupied by the USA or something.
France can't protect them from the British and this seems like a good way to stop it, the plan wasn't to go to war with USA anyway so
He ignored the otl order to step down and only resigned on July 20th to go join Gaulle. Two weeks is a lot of time, I'd assume this would be rushed through to capitalise on French public outrage.
If FIC is free France so are the Pacific and that means Hitler doesn't need to grant Japan permission. Japan can claim they want to help Vichy when they invade this time. Though Catroux is likely to fold to Japanese pressure since that was his strategy otl
Edit : also since usa recognised vichy its likely France and the USA come to an agreement. For the duration of the war French possessions in the americas will be demilitarised and occupied by the USA or something.
France can't protect them from the British and this seems like a good way to stop it, the plan wasn't to go to war with USA anyway so
According to the Niehorster website the garrison of French West Africa on 10th May 1940 was as follows:
Régiment Mixte d'Infanterie Coloniale de l'AOF (French West Africa Mixed Colonial Infantry Regiment)
1er Régiment de Tirailleurs Sénégalais (1st Senegalese Tirailleurs Regiment) Senegal
2e Régiment de Tirailleurs Sénégalais (2nd Senegalese Tirailleurs Regiment) Mali
7e Régiment de Tirailleurs Sénégalais (7th Senegalese Tirailleurs Regiment) Senegal
Bataillon de Tirailleurs Sénégalais no1 (1st Senegalese Tirailleurs Battalion) Mauritania
Bataillon de Tirailleurs Sénégalais no2 (2nd Senegalese Tirailleurs Battalion) Mali
Bataillon de Tirailleurs Sénégalais no3 (3rd Senegalese Tirailleurs Battalion) Niger
Bataillon de Tirailleurs Sénégalais no4 (4th Senegalese Tirailleurs Battalion) Guinea
Bataillon de Tirailleurs Sénégalais no5 (5th Senegalese Tirailleurs Battalion) Ivory Coast
Bataillon de Tirailleurs Sénégalais no6 (6th Senegalese Tirailleurs Battalion) Upper Volta
Bataillon de Tirailleurs Sénégalais no7 (7th Senegalese Tirailleurs Battalion) Senegal
Bataillon de Tirailleurs Sénégalais no8 (8th Senegalese Tirailleurs Battalion) Benin
6e Régiment d'Artillerie Coloniale (6th Colonial Artillery Regiment)
That's a total of 4 infantry regiments, 8 independent infantry battalions and one artillery regiment. The source did not give the location of the mixed colonial infantry regiment and the artillery regiment.1er Régiment de Tirailleurs Sénégalais (1st Senegalese Tirailleurs Regiment) Senegal
2e Régiment de Tirailleurs Sénégalais (2nd Senegalese Tirailleurs Regiment) Mali
7e Régiment de Tirailleurs Sénégalais (7th Senegalese Tirailleurs Regiment) Senegal
Bataillon de Tirailleurs Sénégalais no1 (1st Senegalese Tirailleurs Battalion) Mauritania
Bataillon de Tirailleurs Sénégalais no2 (2nd Senegalese Tirailleurs Battalion) Mali
Bataillon de Tirailleurs Sénégalais no3 (3rd Senegalese Tirailleurs Battalion) Niger
Bataillon de Tirailleurs Sénégalais no4 (4th Senegalese Tirailleurs Battalion) Guinea
Bataillon de Tirailleurs Sénégalais no5 (5th Senegalese Tirailleurs Battalion) Ivory Coast
Bataillon de Tirailleurs Sénégalais no6 (6th Senegalese Tirailleurs Battalion) Upper Volta
Bataillon de Tirailleurs Sénégalais no7 (7th Senegalese Tirailleurs Battalion) Senegal
Bataillon de Tirailleurs Sénégalais no8 (8th Senegalese Tirailleurs Battalion) Benin
6e Régiment d'Artillerie Coloniale (6th Colonial Artillery Regiment)
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ITTL, would it be possible for Mussolini's Italy to defect to the allies due to a conflict of interests against France? Both states had some sore points in their relationship (Savoy, Nice, Corsica, Tunisia, perhaps certain colonies as well), after all.
Particularly (as seems likely) it starts a civil war between the French (Free French vs Vichy France) with the Free French winning most of the battles which is almost inevitable given the fact the Free French can be resupplied by the Allies while Vichy France will have a hard time getting any resupplies. The Free French can then totally disassociate themselves from Vichy France, even more than they did OTL.
I think the argument could be made that Mers-el-Kébir could be touted as TTL Pearl Harbor. A surprise attack against a neutral party with no declaration of war, made even worse by the fact that the British are supposed to be friends! Clearly Perfidious Albion only respects neutrality when they don't see you as a threat. What's next, an attack on Norfolk because the Americans have a big navy? I know it is a crazy idea, but I think you could rile up a lot of anti-British sentiment with the attack, especially among the French.
With a trustworthy Vichy France, does Germany hand over more of metropole France over to them for civilian administration? How do Free French rebels handle being tracked down by Vichy forces in Paris, etc? The narrative is no longer 'get rid of the foreign invaders' but instead more like a civil war.
Regardless, both Gibraltar and Malta are at great risk of falling. The effect on the war in Greece either causes less (can't afford to lose more men and material in what is rapidly becoming a fascist lake) or more (we need to double down in keeping a foothold in the Med, prevent Arab oil and Suez canal from being taken over) British involvement.
Nightmare scenario? Rommel is able to capture Tobruk with additional naval assets and continues his push into Egypt, threatening Alexandria and the Suez Canal. Saboteurs seize and sink a ship in the canal as well as breaking one of the locks.
With a trustworthy Vichy France, does Germany hand over more of metropole France over to them for civilian administration? How do Free French rebels handle being tracked down by Vichy forces in Paris, etc? The narrative is no longer 'get rid of the foreign invaders' but instead more like a civil war.
Regardless, both Gibraltar and Malta are at great risk of falling. The effect on the war in Greece either causes less (can't afford to lose more men and material in what is rapidly becoming a fascist lake) or more (we need to double down in keeping a foothold in the Med, prevent Arab oil and Suez canal from being taken over) British involvement.
Nightmare scenario? Rommel is able to capture Tobruk with additional naval assets and continues his push into Egypt, threatening Alexandria and the Suez Canal. Saboteurs seize and sink a ship in the canal as well as breaking one of the locks.
Tobruk gains nothing, he captured it OTL. It does not effect the El Aliamein position. It cannot be flanked and therefore Rommel still has to do frontal assaults on dug in British ( well Imperial ) troops who have ammo to burn, lots of AT and massively more AFV's. He bounces just as OTL and has to pull back to regroup ( cannot repair much forward )
Free France has a much worse time. Much of the attraction to men willing to join the free French was fighting the axis enemies of France, not overthrowing Petain who was still highly respected. Also there is less need for the Free French on the British side, they were, to a substantial degree, a way of trying to get French imperial territory to rejoin the allied cause and/or out of the hands of the axis. Now the territories are already in axis hands and there is no diplomatic cost to having the British seize the territories directly. The Vichy government will be viewed as the legitimate government by almost all Frenchmen. The prospect of a united Free French movement is substantially diminished with de Gaulle being not the leader of French resistance to the Axis but some kind of British backed French Rebel state. In the French Metropol resistance will likely be primarily leftist or communist, but that depends on the relationship between Germany and the Soviets. Overall the free French movement, it doesn't make that much difference to the war effort but pretty big difference to post war Europe.
If Vichy does declare war on Great Britain, what becomes of the French squadron at Alexandria?
From memory it consisted of the old battleship Lorraine, 3 heavy cruisers, one light cruiser and 3 destroyers of the 1,500 tonne type.
IIRC the French ships at Alexandria didn't join Free France until the middle of 1943 and AIUI were amongst the last (if not the last) parts of Vichy to join the Allies.
My guess is that it tries to put to sea and make for the nearest Italian port (in Libya or the Dodecanese) before proceeding to Toulon.
It's very likely that the French Squadron would annihilated by the British Mediterranean Fleet before it could clear the port.
That is unless the British ships were at sea. Perhaps it could be arranged for the Italian Fleet to put to sea the day before Vichy declared, war as a diversion. However, even if that worked Cunningham's ships would still be between the French ships and a safe harbour. Therefore, there's a good chance that the squadron would be sunk somewhere in the eastern Mediterranean instead of being sunk whilst trying to get to sea.
OTOH the battle, wherever it was fought, might not be one sided and the French might take some British ships down with them.
From memory it consisted of the old battleship Lorraine, 3 heavy cruisers, one light cruiser and 3 destroyers of the 1,500 tonne type.
IIRC the French ships at Alexandria didn't join Free France until the middle of 1943 and AIUI were amongst the last (if not the last) parts of Vichy to join the Allies.
My guess is that it tries to put to sea and make for the nearest Italian port (in Libya or the Dodecanese) before proceeding to Toulon.
It's very likely that the French Squadron would annihilated by the British Mediterranean Fleet before it could clear the port.
That is unless the British ships were at sea. Perhaps it could be arranged for the Italian Fleet to put to sea the day before Vichy declared, war as a diversion. However, even if that worked Cunningham's ships would still be between the French ships and a safe harbour. Therefore, there's a good chance that the squadron would be sunk somewhere in the eastern Mediterranean instead of being sunk whilst trying to get to sea.
OTOH the battle, wherever it was fought, might not be one sided and the French might take some British ships down with them.
The nightmare scenario is that the British can't mount Operation Compass because they're too busy fighting the Vichy French, e.g. an earlier invasion of Syria.
Therefore, the Italians don't loose an army and the British don't capture Cyrenaica, including Tobruk in the first place.
Whether the Axis can benefit from that and mount a successful invasion of Egypt in the first half of 1941 is another matter.
However, the British Empire and Commonwealth Forces in Egypt were weaker in 1941 than they were in 1942 IOTL. They would be even weaker ITTL for two reasons.
Firstly, because some of the forces sent to Egypt from June 1940 onwards IOTL would be diverted to fight Vichy ITTL.
Secondly, in the nightmare scenario the Vichy Navy, operating from Cassablanca and Dakar, will be sinking a large amount of British shipping and ipso facto fewer supplies get through to Egypt.
Even in non-nightmare mode, the increased presence of French and German subs out of Morocco and West Africa means the South Atlantic starts turning into the most dangerous place to sail for the British. So what, do the Brits ship through the Panama Canal and through Asia to get to Africa? It'll be safer, but talk about a delay!
And what happens when Japan declares on Britain or vise versa? Far out predictions in this case: India revolts and Australia/New Zealand do... I'm not sure what. Freak the fuck out probably because they are still getting invaded and have less support than OTL.
My thinking is along those lines. Where I differ is that (fuel permitting) they will employ their fleet, giving first priority to their cruisers and second to the surviving capital ships.
The amount of fuel available will IMHO depend upon how long Iraq and Syria hold out and the number of tankers the French and Italians have in the Mediterranean. They might avoid being sunk if they keep within Turkish territorial waters and the British respect Turkish neutrality.
I originally posted this earlier in the thread (Post 24).
AFAIK none of the above were in need of repair.
In another thread I wondered if a Vichy declaration of war would have butterflied away the OTL attack on Dunkerque that AIUI did considerably more damage to the ship than the bombardment by Force H. I then speculated that she could have been sent to Toulon and repaired by the beginning of 1941. Then the Force Du Raid would be raiding the British convoy routes rather than protecting them.
I didn't say so in that post, but one possibility is that the Vichy Air Force in Morocco bombs Gibraltar with greater vigour than OTL, which forces the withdrawal of Force H.
After Gibraltar's coast artillery is put out of action it will be possible for Axis warships in the Atlantic to move to the Mediterranean and vice versa. Is one of the French shipyards on the Mediterranean coast capable of completing Jean Bart? AFAIK at the time France surrendered she was due to be completed in the middle of 1941. Though I guess that it would have taken longer than that ITTL even if she was sent from Casablanca to a French Mediterranean shipyard in July 1940.
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