Ooh, what’s the name of the board game? You’ve peaked my interest.
The North Star is Red: a Wallace Presidency, KMT Victory, Alternate Cold War TL
- Thread starter TastySpam
- Start date
Chapter 47 - The Beginnings of the End of Empires
The Beginnings of the End of Empires
The Yugoslav War was to put the nails in the coffins of two separate empires, British and French.
For the French, the Algerian War was directly linked to the Yugoslav War, namely due to its sparking being tied directly with the shipment of French troops from the rest of the Empire to Europe. The devastating defeat in Vodjovina (North Yugoslavia) after the Soviet mechanized counter-attack mandated that France find troops elsewhere and although conscription had been introduced, immediate troops were needed in order to prevent the Yugoslav Front from falling. The French government immediately entered negotiations with the exiled Sultan Mohammed V. Agreeing on limited home rule for Morocco that would immediately transition into full independence once negotiations with Spain had concluded, French troops immediately left Morocco for the shores of Yugoslavia. Similar negotiations took place in Tunisia directly with the Bey of Tunisia (instead of the more left-wing Tunisian National Movement) and the French soon quickly left Tunisia, putting the former gendarme under the Bey's control. Violence immediately broke out between supporters of Habib Bourguiba and supporters of the Bey and Ben Youssef, but regardless of the messy ending to French Tunisia, French troops were safely extricated and headed out to Yugoslavia. Similarly, Cambodia and Laos were granted independence as members of the French Union. French troops even began considering independence for Cameroon (a UN Trust territory and former German colony) as armed militants began attacking French police officers. With French India reverting to control of New Delhi, more troops were shipped from Asia to Europe.[1] The French were somewhat humiliated that after moving troops away from Vietnam, President Hinh of the Central Government of Vietnam immediately invited Duy Tan back to Vietnam, enshrining him as as a constitutional monarch of the new Empire of Vietnam, a move heavily supported by Chiang Kai-Shek, who immediately sent military assistance to the new Tan-Hinh government in their bid to defeat Viet Minh guerillas. Duy Tan had spent the years between 1946 and 1954 calling for total French withdrawal from Vietnam and a peaceful end to the Indochina War, only growing more and more popular. The French, despite Duy Tan's rhetoric, continued their withdrawal, comforted in the notion that the government would at least still be anti-Communist. The most fateful transfer of French troops was to take place in Algeria, which was unlike Tunisia and Morroco, integral departments of Metropolitan France. Although both the French and native Algerian police kept order, most French troops were similarly shipped out to Yugoslavia. This emboldened the Algerian Communist Party (PCA), which was in close contact with Moscow. Soviet forces were aware that this would be a likely outcome of any French setback in Yugoslavia, and with prodding from Moscow, PCA militants and guerrillas launched attacks on Franco-Algerian police across Algeria in what became called "Red Easter" or "Bloody Easter."[2] The National Liberation Front (FLN) stayed neutral for a week, before joining in the violence as well, fearing that the Communists might take a leading role in what they also viewed would be a national revolution. The bad blood between the FLN and PCA would persist, with both groups often accusing each other of being "soft" on the French, as the two groups imagined fundamentally different futures for Algeria - the PCA imaging a Soviet-style Communist state and the FLN imagining a nationalistic, Islamic state. Although the violence began in light waves, the French quickly found out that this was developing into a real crisis as much of France's intelligentsia rallied behind the Algerian militants, with both groups flourishing in size despite whatever combat losses. Deprived of air power (busy in Yugoslavia), PCA and FLN militants could easily retreat into the mountains whenever pursued by French gendarmes, causing the rebellion to spread like wildfire.
The French wartime government of Guy Mollet had collapsed in the aftermath of the Vodjovina disaster, replaced by Pierre Mendes who then left government after the violence of Tunisian independence, and then replaced by fellow socialist Gaston Defferre. The Defferre government was unusually wide (including most of the non-Gaullist Right), which was necessary to push through many laws that were rather unpopular, including conscription, rationing, and censorship. The war was broadly unpopular in France, especially among Gaullists who were dismayed that the war with the Soviet Union (on behalf of a different Communist State!) was being prioritized over the French colonial empire. However, the mainstream French political class saw Soviet aggression as an existential threat to both France and the notion of European integration, which they believed was necessary to prevent a future third World War. The Gaullists quickly retorted that France was already fighting a third World War.
In the United Kingdom, what quickly became mocked as the "Butskellist" government (combining the names of Prime Minister Hugh Gaitskell and Tory leader Rab Butler) was already in far direr straights than the French Empire. If the French Empire became to decline, the British Empire had long been in free-fall. Unlike in France, which had constant changes of government but domestic tranquility, Britain had the opposite. In a gruesome blow to Prime Minister Gaitskell, the Trade Unions Congress allowed member unions to strike against the government in protest of a government announcement that economic rationing and conscription were returning to Britain. Although the TUC itself did not vote for a general strike like in 1926, several more of the extreme unions began striking. Great Britain had only just recovered from the brutal postwar winters. Furthermore, national morale was extremely low after the defeats in Burma and Vodvojina. Trust in British military capabilities was so low, the IRA grew overconfident, engaging in the most ambitious IRA operation to date, Operation Harvest, to attack British police and army troops. However, this campaign quickly gained public sympathy (among Northern Irish Catholics) who saw their living standards significantly drop due to all of Britain's wars abroad. The response of the British government, to both of these only built further rage. Judging all of these as examples of wartime insurrection, British armed forces broke up strikers with force and forcibly interned Northern Irish civil rights protesters. Neither stopped the rage.
At the start of the Yugoslav War, Great Britain was involved in several major colonial wars, in Egypt/Sudan, Burma, Malaya, and Kenya. After the disaster of Burma, the Gaitskell administration thought it prudent to extricate British troops from Malaya and Kenya as quickly as possible. However, quite surprisingly, the government of the Republic of China responded quite negatively to the possibility that British troops would leave Malaya. Quite frankly, Malaya was an even greater headache to the Chinese, realizing that it would be difficult for them to prevent a Communist uprising given the uncomfortable ethnic dynamics of the nation (the anti-Communists being also rather anti-Chinese). After several discussions, the British concluded that a drawdown in Malaya would weaken the ROC and thus strengthen the Soviet Union.
Egypt (namely the Suez) was viewed as the lynchpin of the British Empire and Gaitskell's Tory partners would not accept a withdrawal (even as the violence worsened). Thus, the British responded by a partial withdrawal. Although there were enough British troops to guard most of the major urban areas alongside the Nile, the countryside quickly became a hot bastion for anti-British rebels, whether they be Islamist, Nationalist, or Communist. Offensive actions (namely raids and targeted killings) were covertly outsourced to Israeli special forces, who quickly took this as carte blanche to wage their own separate war in Egypt against those viewed as most likely future threats to Israel. Most notably and unbeknownst to the UK, Mossad also targeted those figures they viewed as most likely to lead to a peaceful post-rebellion government, as they feared a united Egyptian nation-state would quickly seek to destroy Israel.
In Kenya, the British wanted to leave as quickly as possible, something that became possible after a major Mau Mau general, Dedan Kimathi, was defeated and captured.[3] However, it wasn't actually clear who to put in charge of a new Kenya, with much of the opposition (such as the Kapenguria Six) locked up as part of the anti-Mau Mau martial law.[4] In fact, political parties were flat out illegal under the martial law. With elements of the Conservative Party deeply invested in the support of white settlers in Africa (Kenya had 80,000, out of a population of over 6 million), the decision was made for Britain to just wash its hands clean of Kenya. In 1956, the British just transferred the Protectorate of Kenya (the coastal lands technically owned by the Sultanate of Zanzibar) to the Sultan himself, much to his great surprise and modest consternation. The Colony of Kenya, without much buy-in from many native politicians, was quickly reformed into the Federation of Kenya, with the native battalions of the King's African Rifles immediately taking on service as the new Kenyan Army. The political formation of Kenya was driven not by local negotiation between natives and settlers, but rather negotiations between Conservative and Labour politicians in Britain. To avoid comparisons to South Africa, the Federation of Kenya was an officially multiracial democracy, albeit one where white settler political and economic power was vastly over-represented in proportion to their population. Each "region" of Kenya was entitled to send a roughly equal number of MPs to Parliament, including the "White Highlands." In addition, legislation on several topics often required super-majorities, which gave the white settlers a de facto veto on anything threatening their economic power. Although the Prime Minister was guaranteed to be some sort of native African, central governments were weak and power became increasingly concentrated in the hands of the former King's African Rifles, especially one of their most senior non-British officers, Idi Amin.
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[1] OTL, Tunisian and Morocco independence were sped up by Algeria. ITL, they take place before.
[2] OTL, the FLN rebelled in late 1954 emboldened by Dien Ben Phu, but ITL, with no DBP, they delayed their plans by a year.
[3] As OTL.
[4] Jomo Kenyatta is still in jail.
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Well Kenya and Egypt look like to be in for fun times in the future. I don’t like what’s going on in Ireland, also I foresee a civil war between the FLN and the PCA once Algeria is independent.
Colonial Twilight
Yeah, I kinda start these wars without figuring out how they'll end.
With regards to Kenya, it's definitely one of those things that "sound good on paper but..."
I suspect Ghana is largely on the same - it's gaining independence ITL right when it did OTL. The British are hurrying it up a bit, but I can't see it being that different.
I guess the Yugoslavia war is higher priority than the colonial troubles. By now, there is I am getting the sense that the colonial game is unsustainable in the long run, but events in Burma and elsewhere have given the commusts substantial energy.
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Yeah, Yugoslavia is definitely prioritized. There's a bit of eurocentrism there, but it's understandable why European powers are freaked out more by Communism in Europe than Asia. There's also a bit of coalition building - IE, there are left-wingers in both of these countries who just always wanted to get out of the colonial struggle - and pivoting to Yugoslavia gives cover from accusations of being "soft" on Communism.
That being said, outside of Burma, none of them are really falling to Communism. In most cases, power is just being handed off to local anti-Communist forces. More of a pullback than a pull-out in most places. Syria, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran all have nationalistic governments vaguely aligned with the USSR, but they're not certainly not Communist. In fact, it's almost certain the Yugoslav wars have really spooked a lot of these countries.
Yeah, I guess you and everyone else in the world is wondering the same question. A riddle wrapped in enigmas and what not. I will have an update explaining what happens...eventually. These three years (1955-1958) are quite frankly going to go agonizingly slowly.
Chapter 48 - The "Limited War" in Yugoslavia
The "Limited War" in Yugoslavia
Yugoslavia had been at war for years. The invasion commenced in late 1954, Western forces were on the offensive throughout most of late 1954, and once the snow and mud cleared in early 1955, the Soviet Union struck back. 1955 was the year of catastrophes for Yugoslavia. The Yugoslav strategy was to get the rest of the world involved in defense of Yugoslavia. Once that was accomplished, the Yugoslav Army (JNA) hadn't clearly planned what would happen after. Their initial understanding was that the Soviet Union would either withdraw or start a limited war. The Soviet Union chose the latter, but even limited war proved devastating due to the manner it developed.
he only goal of the Anglo-French governments (and their American backers) was to deny Stalin a symbolic victory in Yugoslavia, which would mean the removal of Tito and his replacement with a pro-Soviet leader. The hope was to make sure no precedent would be set in Yugoslavia and that Soviet influence would remain "contained." There was no real concern as to what actually happened to Yugoslavia, both its peoples and its borders. Although American forces in Germany remained on high alert, the Americans largely stayed out (after the humiliating Italy debacle forced their ships to turn back). Although airplanes bombed Yugoslavia, there was an unwritten understanding that aircraft could be targeted once they entered Yugoslav airspace, but air bases and planes outside of Yugoslav airspace were off-limits. As a reuslt, most Allied aircraft operated unmolested out of Greece and most Soviet airplanes out of Hungary and Romania. The sole exception to this was Albania and Bulgaria, where Yugoslav forces had invaded.
Stalin's official "successor" became his favored marshal, Kliment Voroshilov, who was known for taking marching orders from Stalin and being very close. Although Stalin meant for Voroshilov to merely be a puppet, Stalin's intense paranoia and faked death meant that he was more or less isolated from everyone except his closest inner circle, and Voroshilov, had some leeway to interpret Stalin's orders. The contemporary Western interpretation, unaware of Stalin's survival, was that Voroshilov was a crazed militarist (the Americans nicknamed him the Soviet Tojo), but ironically much like Tojo, Voroshilov was actually a military pragmatist who moderated the more extreme demands of his supporters (in this case, Stalin). The limited air war understanding was promoted by Voroshilov, who sought to further Stalin's orders but did not want a Third World War or a nuclear war. The mastermind of the Vodvojina offensive was actually Laventry Beria, who suggested a quick lightning blow in order to capture as many Anglo-French POWs as possible, which would be a source of intelligence and a possible diplomatic bargaining chip. With those initiatives confirmed, it became unnecessary to further escalate the war. Similarly, the National Government in Britain and the parliamentary governments in France, aware of antiwar sentiment, were also loathe to further expand the war.
The Western Allies braced for a massive Soviet tank invasion to cross the Danube rivers, but it never came. Instead, the Soviets tried to tighten the noose. Warsaw Pact forces grinded through Northeast Croatia (Slavonia), where Allied air coverage was much weaker, to reach the Sava River. The last Allied stand in Zagreb became one of the most intense urban warfare battles since Berlin, with Hungarian and Soviet troops sweeping through the cities with saturation bombing and flamethrowers to fight Allied troops, which famously included drafted child soldiers. As a result of the drive through Slavonia, the bulk of troop casualties became Hungarian. Unlike the quick strike in North Serbia, the drive through Slavonia was slow and grinding and took much of 1955 and ended with Hungarian morale completely collapsed by the end - the Soviet offensive was forced to stop at the Sava River, stationing their troops in the completely shattered ruins of Zagreb. Instead at the Danube, artillery fire and occasional Hungarian-Romanian attacks (usually unsuccessful) shattered Belgrade and inflicted losses on a weaker and weaker Yugoslav Army. The Yugoslav Army in Austria more or less had totally retreated in order to defend Zagreb and was destroyed there, but the political effects of the brief Yugoslav invasion in Austria had huge effects for Austrians, who were immediately then subjected to a far stricter occupation - Yugoslav troops were immediately replaced by East German troops, who immediately embarked on a purge of civilian Austrian political figures, especially members of the Social Democratic Party, who quickly fled into Western Allied occupation zones. In contrast, thanks to Allied air support, the Yugoslav Army in Bulgaria was actually more or less able to hold on over the cliffs on Sofia, with Bulgarian attempts to dislodge them largely successful. In Bulgaria, the situation reversed itself, with the Yugoslav Army shelling Bulgarian army positions and civilians alike in Sofia and the Bulgarian Communist Party in chaos. With the central government totally paralyzed, Soviet troops were forced to divert from other Warsaw Pact states (namely Hungary and Romania) to help garrison Bulgaria and just prevent disorder from taking over the country. Similarly, Albania was more or less totally lost to Soviet troops, with anti-Yugoslav loyalists more or less a marginal figure in the mountains as the war dragged on.
Refugees were fleeing from both Zagreb and Belgrade towards the temporary capital, Sarejevo. The Soviet strategy was to break Yugoslav political will and force a settlement, which required the Yugoslav Communist Party under Tito to give up. In short, the Soviet Union concluded it would win a war of attrition. With Italian air bases off limits to Allied forces, Allied air coverage was sporadic and thus could only target bombers targeting Yugoslav or Allied ground forces. Soviet bombers more or less had free reign over the rest of the country (especially far away from Greece), which they used to devastating effect on Yugoslav cities. With Zagreb and Belgrade in ruins from warfare, mass Soviet bombing targeted almost every major population center in range (and out of Allied air coverage from Greece), sending hundreds of thousands of refugees spilling into Sarajevo, which the Soviets correctly concluded would place a huge pressure on Allied war administration. Sarajevo itself was largely spared, because of being both far-away and propped with refugees (that the Soviets figured would burden the Allies).
In World War II, roughly 10% of Yugoslavia's prewar population of 16 million died under Nazi occupation and invasion. In under two years of Soviet invasion, most estimates conclude that another 10% of Yugoslavia's 1955 population had died, from warfare, civilian bombing, or just famine/disease that became rampant in the refugee camps littering the Adriatic. What Communist party apparatchiks did not plan on was the degree of humanitarian aid that non-involved capitalist countries were willing to engage in. The Yugoslav state did not collapse as foreseen, as pro-Yugoslav charity drives popped up in almost community in the United States and other countries, both large and small, with everyday civilians plunging large donations of foodstuffs, clothing, and medicine that could be directly shipped to Yugoslavia. Americans, in the midst of a large economic boom and increasingly anti-Communist, were especially generous.
By the fall of 1955, both the Western Allies (sans Yugoslavia) and the Soviet Union were surprisingly happy with their positions. The Soviets saw Yugoslav defeat as inevitable and the war limited - the Western Allies saw Soviet defeat as inevitable and the war limited - and the Yugoslavs themselves had no say in the matter. Indeed, Western and Soviet diplomats largely communicated only with each other in order to discuss possible war resolutions without even their Yugoslav counter-parts being informed. However, the conflict between the Soviet Union and the West was to dramatically expand thanks to the actions of a leader who was almost totally unknown in either Moscow, London, or Paris.
Man, this air war would be the stuff of legends. At this point, you'd see Mig-17s dogfighting with Hunters and Mysteres. Some early supersonic aircraft should also be coming into service for both sides as well. I know this is a terribly bloody war but you've to admit, the aerial combat would be really really spectacular. If I had photoshop and knew how to use it, I'd so photoshop a jet dogfight over Yugoslavia for TL.
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"All Yugoslav Air Force pilots assemble for take-off...for the glory of our country."
I'm with you on that one @Chris Triangle The air war over Yugoslavia would be the stuff of legends.
I'm with you on that one @Chris Triangle The air war over Yugoslavia would be the stuff of legends.
Chapter 49 - Greece and Turkey in the Yugoslav War
Greece and Turkey in the Yugoslav War
The diplomatic consequences suffered by Great Britain from the Yugoslav War would go considerably beyond merely its own colonial empires in Africa and Asia. One of the first victims of the war would be British foreign policy in Cyprus.
The invasion of Yugoslavia saved the hopes of one nation: Royalist Greece. With Yugoslav forces immediately withdrawn from Greece to attack Bulgaria, the Royalist counteroffensive took dozens of miles of lost territories. Peace negotiations between the Royalists and the Communists were already on way (part of the Soviet timing was their understanding that the Yugoslavs would be better prepared after the Greek Civil War ended), and this allowed a far more favorable cease-fire settlement between North and South Greece. The Communists were booted entirely out of Attica, Boeotia, and Euboea, creating a new ceasefire line between Itea and Lamia. In addition, Turkish support allowed the Royalists to gain a stronghold in Western Thrace, creating another cease-fire line. With the end of the Greek Civil War, George Grivas moved on immediately to his next target - Cyprus.
In early 1955, the Ethniki Organosis Kyprion Agoniston, as now led by George Grivas immediately began a militant campaign in Cyprus to kick out British forces and unify with South Greece (enosis). This campaign consisted largely of bomb attacks against British policemen, with both Greek and Turkish Cypriots often caught in the middle as collateral damage. In contrast, Turkish Cypriots felt alienated by the enosis campaign, calling for partition (taksim) and if not possible, a continued British military presence. EOKA didn't intentionally target Turkish Cypriots, but it was clear that Turkish Cypriots were suffering as collateral damage thanks to a campaign they didn't support. The Turkish press was inflamed at domestic Greeks, claiming that the Ecunemical Patriarch was collecting funds to fund pro-enosis bomb attacks. The Turkish economy was also ailing, and stirring up hatred against the Greek minority, prominent in Istanbul's business world, deflected anger from the incumbent government. This put Great Britain in an incredible bind and the Greek nationalists understood this well.
In response, the British foreign service convinced the Turkish Menderes government to take a hardline on Cyprus, hoping that the Greeks would spend most of its time quibbling with Turkey, not Britain. However, this would horrifically backfire. After the Turkish consulate in Thessaloniki (which was Ataturk's former home) was bombed by a supposed pro-Enosis terrorist (later analysis would show this was actually a false flag attack by Turkish intelligence), mobs of angry Turks (bused into Istanbul by Turkish intelligence) began smashing and burning Greek businesses, homes, and neighborhoods in what became quickly known as the Istanbul Pogrom or the "Greek Kristallnacht." Although the military eventually intervened, the incident so greatly inflamed anger in both Greeces, both of whose governments desperately had to prove their nationalist credentials, that the North Greek government decided to play its greatest card in late September, 1955. Just a month earlier, a UN Resolution pushed by Greece calling for Cypriot independence passed overwhelming in the United Nations General Assembly, and was now heading straight to the UN Security Council, where the Soviet Union stated they would vote Yes. China, the United States, and France indicated they would abstain to avoid embarrassing the United Kingdom, but the pressure was building.
Using this as leverage, the North Greek government sent an ultimatum to the United Kingdom. Either the United Kingdom would promise to evacuate Cyprus without any partition and accede to whatever sovereignty a fair referendum in Cyprus chose (it was presumed the Greek majority would choose Enosis). Either that or North Greece would bar British forces from basing in North Greece, including any use of North Greek airspace. British generals immediately informed the British government that victory in Yugoslavia was impossible without air bases operating from North Greece - the Allied forces would lose almost all air coverage in Yugoslavia and any ability to supply Yugoslav forces in Macedonia and Bulgaria, their strongest defensive region. The British asked if the South Greeks would play along, but the South Greeks gave them the same ultimatum, determined to gain Cyprus as well! The National Government, judging victory in Yugoslavia to be of the utmost importance and colonialism to be doomed long-term, folded.
Soon after, the British government announced that British forces would accede to the UN Resolution by winding down and withdrawing from Cyprus by 1960, at which point they would hold a referendum where a United Cyprus would have choose between independence, union with North Greece, union with South Greece, or union with Turkey. The response from Ankara was horror. The British had pressured the Turks to be "tough" with Greece - just to paint them as the bad guys when Britain gave into every Greek demand. Rage at British "perfidy" erupted around Turkey, as British businesses were attacked and British nationals forced to flee the country, often the same way Greeks had been earlier forced. In response to overwhelmingly popular pressure, the Turkish Government declared that the Treaty of Lausanne had been openly violated by the British Government and that it would be no longer bound. With Marshall Plan funding nearly exhausted and the Turkish economy mired in recession, Prime Minister Menderes saw a source of funding. Feeling personally betrayed and taking a visit from Soviet diplomat Dmitri Shepilov, Menderes agreed to a huge infusion of Soviet investment in exchange for free access through the Turkish Straits as well as the rights to extend the Transcaucasus Railway all the way down to Damascus. In this way, Soviet forces would be able to access the Mediterranean Sea from two different paths.
The response in Great Britain was also horror that the already weak Wallace-Stalin Straits Agreement was to be shredded. It was decided that the Menderes government had to be removed at any and all costs. The United Kingdom immediately declared Turkey a rogue state violating various international laws from the Treaty of Lausanne to the Turkish Strait Conventions, quickly setting up a naval blockade that drove the Turkish economy into total collapse. Even with the help of Soviet Union, the recession quickly turned into a depression, complete with food and medicine shortages. The purpose was to both put pressure on Turkey and block any Soviet submarines that might try to infiltrate into the Mediterranean. However, unlike say Syria or Iran, where the military had few connections to the West, the Turkish military had close connections to their Western counterparts. The situation in Turkey would quickly boil into a crisis well beyond anyone's expectations.
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The United States is at least remarkably, let us say, "preoccupied" with the topic of the next update. France is probably the only neutral arbiter here.
Edit: As an aside though, the Great Powers have pretty conflicting interests here. The British care a lot more about Yugoslavia than the French. The French are really just being a good member-in-standing of the Western Alliance. The British are totally shredding their own colonial empire in order to stop the Soviets. The French Empire is mostly intact, outsides of Morocco and Tunisia (who they're mostly passing off to pro-French native monarchies who were de jure in charge anyways).
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Thanks for the insight! Honestly, I write really awkward wars...because I don't know much at all about military history and that kind of stuff. I did try to give off an aura comparable to "MiG alley"
Well, I'll admit, I'm a bit of an aviation fan though not an expert either. My original post went off on a tangent about the nature of the technology and the Soviet bomber forces (which appear quite formidable) in the conflict and of the allied interceptors and other new technologies but I decided that doing so might detract from our discussions of the bigger picture in this timeline.
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Eh, go ahead. In my experience, most of the changes made to accommodate those kind of changes are pretty minor. IIRC, I briefly saw something about Soviet bombers being kind of sitting ducks to Allied aircraft? If so, that would actually make a lot of sense since the Soviet bombings more or less are taking place in the parts of Yugoslavia that are out of the Allied air range (like Croatia and Bosnia and Slovenia) - because the Allied air bases are all in Northern Greece.
Great update! Though I wonder how the Ma clique are doing consider they border Xinjiang?