The North Star is Red: a Wallace Presidency, KMT Victory, Alternate Cold War TL
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Chapter 44 - Israeli Foreign Policy
Israeli Foreign Policy
In no country did Stalin's brutal persecution of Soviet Jews spark more outrage than Israel. Not only because of the anti-semitic nature of his twilight years as leader of the Soviet Union, but also because of the great sense of betrayal felt by many Israelis. The Israeli political class was filled with socialists from Europe who remembered Soviet Communism as an unusual bulwark against anti-semitism - after all, it was the Red Army that liberated most of the Nazi death camps (indeed, the angriest objectors to Stalin's Jewish deportations were Red Army officers). The deportation of the Soviet Jews (upon charges of being "complicit in a Trotskyite-Titoite-Zionist conspiracy" was exceptionally devastating to the Mapam Party, which split in multiple pieces. [1] Although the party quickly denounced the Soviet Union, it remained discredited as most of its voters fled to David Ben Gurion's Mapai and even some to Menachem Begin's more hardline Herut party (a surprising amount of Israeli right-wing hardliners would end up having backgrounds in the pre-1950's left).[2] Many later would say that the Soviet deportation of Jews caused them to give up on the notion of cosmopolitan co-existence with non-Jews. The Holocaust heavily drove Zionist sentiment because it posed the question to many Jewish intellectuals that if they weren't secure in cosmopolitan Germany (long a bulwark against the "pogromatic" anti-semitism of Imperial Russia), where were they safe? The answer to that question to many Jews was once Marxism (after all, the Bolsheviks threw out the Tsar). That answer seemed much less attractive after Stalin's Jewish persecutions.
Although Ben Gurion refused to include Herut in any kind of coalition government, their growing strength suggested to him that he had to take charges to address their criticisms of "crypto-Stalinism." Ben Gurion quickly adopted a policy of refusing to collaborate with party's to the left of Mapai, excluding them from his cabinet.
In addition, Israeli foreign policy was designed in order to avoid a repeat of the 1948 War where Israel was surrounded by hostile Arab countries. In addition, a powerful current of anti-Soviet sentiment ran through Israeli society, and any cooperation with Soviet-aligned nations was viewed as anathema. Not all Communists were anathema, as Tito's Yugoslavia quickly became heralded by Israeli officials as a heroic resistor against Stalin. Although anti-British sentiment was still rife in Israel, most grew to view British dominance in the Middle East as their primary defense against Stalinism. Pro-British governments in Iraq, Jordan, and Egypt quickly became viewed as natural partners of Israel, with the pro-Communist Baathists in Syria, the realpolitik Saudis (most of the surviving Free Officers fled to Saudi Arabia), North Yemen, and Iran as enemies. Egypt and Jordan were seen as especially important partners, as they partitioned the Palestinian territories with Israel.
However, Israel was aware that the government in Egypt was extremely weak, propped only by direct British and Royal Egyptian military occupation of the Nile River. Outside of the Nile, most of the country was under the control of Feyadeen militias, as Islamists, Arab nationalists, and Communists all found a common enemy in the Egyptian monarchy. The King of Egypt was a naturally weak figure, since Fuad II ascended the throne before turning 6 months old. Internal politicking dominated and much of the pre-1952 Egyptian government boycotted the new "emergency government", including figures like Nahas and Serageddin. Nahas was viewed as problematic by the British and his attempt to abrogate the Anglo-Egyptian Treaty of 1936 was viewed as what sparked the 1952 Revolution - however, the British quickly seemed like they had nobody better to replace him. With the office of Prime Minister regularly changing and elections irregular and corrupt, power became quickly concentrated in the hands of Chief of Staff Amer, who was appointed to his position by the late King Farouk for political loyalty, not military competence. Much of the surviving Egyptian military despised the British and Amer, and desertions were rampant. The Israeli foreign ministry firmly believed that the Kingdom of Egypt would immediately collapse without British support, and so one of the missions of Mossad was the systematic targeting of left-wing British politicians, in particular Jewish politicians. Their approach seemed vindicated in the 1955 election, when several promising Liberal politicians (in Conservative-Liberal marginals) seem to fall short after embarrassing (though not always true) scandals hit the British press. Israeli special forces also remained unusually active in Cyprus, attempting to fight Cypriot independence groups (Cyprus was viewed as strategic for British aid to Israel).
Israel also drew close to Chiang Kai-Shek's China for one major reason at first - both leaders shared one similarity: an obsession with acquiring nuclear weapons. Chiang Kai-Shek grew frustrated that the United States was reluctant to share its nuclear secrets. The British also had a nuclear program, but they resisted foreign cooperation (Churchill was intent on keeping a particularly British arsenal). In contrast, three other powers quickly began sharing nuclear secrets - Israel, China, and France. The deportation of Soviet Jews to Communist China quickly propelled Republican China and Israel even closer, as both quickly began to view the Soviet Union and it's "Manchurian puppet" as enemy #1. Israeli Kibbutz leaders quickly became common visitors to both China and Japan (where Prime Minister Hatoyama was a surprising fan of Kibbutzim). The Chinese countryside quickly became a surprisingly cosmopolitan place, as both Chinas enlisted hordes of foreign agricultural development specialists - American and Israeli for Republican China, Soviet and North Japanese for Communist China.
Upon the invasion of Yugoslavia, Israel felt that it would harm the Yugoslav cause to intervene on their behalf, but Israeli intelligence began total cooperation with American, French, British, and Yugoslav agencies. However, this preoccupation with the Soviet Union also led to some neglect of issues at home, and Israeli intelligence, as vaunted as it was, failed to foresee the greatest political crisis to yet hit the Middle East.
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[1] Many Jewish Czech leaders were famously prosecuted under such charges and Stalin's anti-Semitic paranoia is also driven by his exceptionally bad relationship with Yugoslavia.
[2] Kind of reminds me of many "neocons".
I think I mentioned very briefly (so it was easy to miss) that Afghanistan moved to a pro-Soviet Prime Minister, which is OTL (just somewhat earlier), because the tiny border with frontier China notwithstanding, they're sandwiched in between Pakistan and the USSR.
I'm not sure why MacArthur has this reputation in America as a hardline conservative (among both liberals and conservatives). It's deeply incoherent with what happened when MacArthur actually ran a real country. His politics really don't seem that different from Eisenhower (a Middle America New Dealer Interntionalist Republican).
The Republic of China's borders are initially a bit uncertain during the cold war and this could be significant.
Does the ROC still claim the 1912 borders like IOTL? I mean, they probably would have to accept the border with India but they could continue to claim Mongolia and Tuva. Since the communist state would have to accept at most, the current PRC's borders sans Northern Xinjiang, the ROC could use this as a selling point for South China's legitimacy without actually doing anything. Plus, letting one area break away is not a great precedent when your country is already partitioned.
I also wonder if some nationalists would hold out hope that, in the event of victory over both the USSR, they would have a chance to recover the Outer Manchuria lost to Russia in 1860. Since the relationship with the USSR is already nigh unsalvageable thanks to Stalin's creation of a communist puppet state (which we know is regarded as the Red Manchukuo) and his annexation of territory in Xinjiang (which the ROC regards as an occupation), all bets are kind of off anyway, don't you think?
Does the ROC still claim the 1912 borders like IOTL? I mean, they probably would have to accept the border with India but they could continue to claim Mongolia and Tuva. Since the communist state would have to accept at most, the current PRC's borders sans Northern Xinjiang, the ROC could use this as a selling point for South China's legitimacy without actually doing anything. Plus, letting one area break away is not a great precedent when your country is already partitioned.
I also wonder if some nationalists would hold out hope that, in the event of victory over both the USSR, they would have a chance to recover the Outer Manchuria lost to Russia in 1860. Since the relationship with the USSR is already nigh unsalvageable thanks to Stalin's creation of a communist puppet state (which we know is regarded as the Red Manchukuo) and his annexation of territory in Xinjiang (which the ROC regards as an occupation), all bets are kind of off anyway, don't you think?
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I'll make sure to address all of those points in a coming update! I was thinking about just answering it now, but I figured my answer was kinda getting long...
Thanks, exciting to hear. This timeline is getting suspenseful!
Chapter 45 - Redeloos, Radeloos, and Reddeloos
Redeloos, Radeloos, and Reddeloos: South Africa and the Netherlands in the 1950's
The South African "Suppression of Communism Act" became one of the most self-fulfilling prophecies. The bill so broadly defined Communism, that South African security forces were easily able to use the law as a bludgeon against both anyone accused of socialist or anti-apartheid leanings. One of the first people prosecuted under the law was African National Congress Secretary General Walter Sisulu, who was forced to flee the country from pursuing South African security forces. Sisulu only joined the South African Communist Party after fleeing abroad and traveling the world looking for supporters for the anti-Apartheid cause. In 1953, he found scant interest. The Soviet Union was preoccupied with increasingly worse relationships with Yugoslavia, as were most of the Eastern European countries. The Western nations were either sympathetic but uninterested (Italy, China, Italy) or downright hostile (Great Britain, France, and the USA). Other potentially interested nations were in the middle of either successful or failed coup attempts (Syria, Iran, Ethiopia, etc.) North Japan was exceedingly helpful on the humanitarian front, but Mandela had pressed home the necessity of armed resistance to the apartheid state - Sisulu was looking for arms, and the North Japanese were uneasy of further antagonizing the West after their involvement in Indonesia and Malaya. Instead, Sisulu found a different source: North China. Although Maoist doctrine suggested that South Africa wasn't quite yet ready for a revolution, the "ripe" revolution against the Kuomintang had stalled, so North Chinese interest waned in sticking too closely to Maoist thought. Mao's orders coming from Burma were typically "lost in transit" when the Communist Troika thought them too extreme, but they felt his insistence of "testing out" global revolution in South Africa was reasonable.[1] Sisulu had his arms. By 1953, the People's Liberation Army was adopting more and more Soviet-constructed standardized equipment, which meant they had a surplus of Japanese/Manchukuon equipment they were phasing out. This equipment was shipped across the Trans-Siberian Railway, shipped down to Pakistan, and then covertly transported down East Africa disguised as "British, Australian, and New Zealand war trophies."
In 1953, the reality of apartheid was still new to most South Africans - the Group Areas Act was passed only in 1950 and 1951, which meant that the black slums and shantytowns of South Africa were filled with primarily the recently dispossessed, many of whom remembered living in mixed-race communities before apartheid. Their numbers were bolstered by the huge numbers of black South Africans shipped in by government-friendly mining companies looking for cheap mine labor. South African police officers sent to demolish a black neighborhood and evict its residents were immediately shocked when they were charged by a gang of young men brandishing katanas. Although none were killed, many were severely wounded. When armed South African forces stormed the nearby black township looking for the source of arms, ANC and Communist Party militants answered back with fire. War had come to South Africa. The next day, a new organization, foundd by a mix of ANC and South African Communist Party members, Sword of the Nation (MK). The only condition for massive North Chinese support was that the ANC and SACP actually get along, which they did.
Although relatively few militants were involved on both sides (most of South Africa's crack anti-insurgency troops were either in Egypt or Indonesia), the fact that the fighting took place in exceedingly crowded townships meant horrific collateral damage among innocents - MK forces regularly concealed their troops in crowded areas such as schools and clinics, hoping that South African forces would either hold their fire or face a potential public relations disaster. They chose the latter. Anti-apartheid forces responded to the government's actions in disgust, though the government often pointed out that South African troops entering the township often came under fire from MK knee-mortars (often with devastating impact to both the soldiers and nearby black civilians). Unfortunately for the MK, although the leadership (stacked with Communists) disavowed any attacks on civilians, many black nationalist militants often disobeyed orders, and snuck off the township to use their Chinese mortars to fire not on pressing military targets, but on white schools, churches, and hospitals. The South African government worked overtime to censor images of the war in the township, but displayed pictures of gorey explosions in white kindergartens across the nation. Although the violent resistance movement was meant to dissuade the F.W. Malan government from their plan to pack the courts and permanently disenfranchise non-white voters in the Cape Province, the end-result was strengthen popular support for the apartheid government in the short term. The 1953 South African elections was a landslide for the National Party, who won 108/159 seats, just above the 106 necessary to amend the Constitution to permanently strip political rights from non-whites. Most British commentators were rather disturbed, including almost the entire Labour Party and the then-ruling Conservative Party, but Churchill impressed on his lieutenants the importance of South Africa's participation in propping up Egypt - namely his view that losing South Africa would mean losing Egypt, which meant losing Suez, which meant the end of the British Empire. Outside of those aforementioned terror attacks, South African forces managed to keep most of the violence from exploding out of the townships. However, an entire generation of black South Africans would grow up hearing bombs and gunfire on a regular basis.
If South Africa was going through chaos, so was the old mother country, albeit of an unexpected nature. After five years of bloody counter-insurgency, the Dutch had an entirely unexpected crisis on their hands. The Dutch had managed to slowly beat down most of the insurgency down. The Dutch strategy in Indonesia was to slowly turn over power to anti-revolutionary rajahs and ulema clergy. Although the Dutch were originally extremely hostile to Islamists and the clergy, they soon grew to prefer the established social hierarchy over either the Communists or Nationalists. Dutch forces completely pulled out of Aceh and West Java, turning over control of the former Kartosoewirjo's Islamic State of Indonesia and allowing the Islamists and Nationalists to fight each other in West Java. After an Indonesian rebel named Abdul Muzakkar defected and declared his own Islamic Republic separate to Kartosoewirjo.[2] Similarly, in East Java, the Dutch pulled out, happy to let the Communists and Nationalists fight among themselves (the Communists quickly established control there). The Dutch had also pulled out of Sulawesi, turning over control to Muzakkar's Islamic Republic of Sulawesi. However, even after trying to limit their military activities (most of their fighting/control became thus limited to South/Central Sumatra and Central Java), casualties mounted and there seemed to be no way for the Dutch to conclusively defeat the nationalist armies.
The comprehensive defeat of the British in Burma came as a shock to the Dutch, but did not ensure Dutch withdrawal - the Dutch were aware that their position was significantly better than the British, as they were fending off raids and insurgents, not fighting entire field armies. However, it came as a great shock because British support was critical for the Dutch in Sumatra. However, by 1955, although Dutch forces in Indonesia had significantly receded in their territorial control, they had avoided the possibility of being completely ejected from Indonesia by a centralized, anti-colonial, nationalist polity. However, another issue was to soon become an issue in Dutch politics. As fighting expanded in the Indonesia and brutal reprisals against civilians became the norm among both sides, hundreds of thousands of refugees sought to flee Indonesia. With the British pressing upon the danger of Malayan Communism if they all fled to Malaya, the Dutch government, at then governed by a Christian Democrat/Social Democrat unity coalition, opted to take in these refugees, fearing they could be radicalized in squalid refugee camps. Prime Minister Drees was both a firm believer in the new Dutch welfare state and committed to holding Indonesia under the Dutch Crown.[3] Refugees included almost all of Indonesia's Indo population (who were typically murdered on sight by Nationalist rebels, under orders of General Sutomo) as well as many Indonesian Christians, Chinese, or other groups who found themselves targeted by either the Nationalist, Islamist, or Communist rebels (this was largely how the Dutch government portrayed this). However, the vast majority were just typical Muslim Indonesians fleeing violence. Although this move was largely unpopular among typical Dutch, Drees was widely popular for his movements towards the welfare state and really faced no parliamentary opposition. The mainstream Christian Democrat Right was mollified by Drees's insistence that this was necessary to keep Indonesia in the Dutch Empire. Only the Anti-Revolutionary Party, outside of the unity coalition because of their opposition to Drees's welfare state, opposed this. Few at the time truly understood the implications that both the war and mass immigration would have on Dutch politics.
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[1] Sisulu asked for arms OTL, but was turned down.
[2] OTL, he joined Kartosowirjo, but ITL, political considerations are different.
[3] OTL, hundreds of thousands of Indos moved to the Netherlands after independence. ITL, the violence pushes all of them...and even more people to the Netherlands.
By this point, no empires last forever and their grip is slowly waning as years goes by as the costs to maintained them is getting too high. This TL seems more darker than OTL.
Depending for who, the guatemalan people are gonna be far better in ttl then otl, and assuming the US keeps its non intervention policy for longer, so will the rest of Latin America. Iran and Afghanistan sure are doing WAY better then otl. North China so far seems less problematic then otl maoist china. And also there is a long way to go yet so we don't know if this could lead to other outcomes more positive then otl in the long run.
First of all, great work, as always. We're getting a fascinating picture of the slow but powerful ripple effects of the earlier events ITTL. The situation in Indonesia is a most interesting development and I can only wonder how it will pan out.
BTW, this latest update reminded me of another question about about Nationalist China that fits a bit with my last post about that: there is substantial Chinese minority in Southeast Asia so conflicts there could become a political issue in the ROC. This minority may well be larger than IOTL as well depending on emigration patterns.
BTW, this latest update reminded me of another question about about Nationalist China that fits a bit with my last post about that: there is substantial Chinese minority in Southeast Asia so conflicts there could become a political issue in the ROC. This minority may well be larger than IOTL as well depending on emigration patterns.
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Well I can't deny Italy went well so far. A victory for the Republic washing in part the humiliation of the defeat of WWII and securing a part of Istria otherwise lost OTL. If Gladio would be discovered and dismantled in time, even better.
I believe one of the reason North China is better than Maoist China is because Mao isn’t in actual charge of the country.
I agree, also it makes them far more controllable to the Soviets
Everyone wins…except for Mao. But he’s Mao Tse-tung so don’t care if he’s happy or not.
He is currently more happy in his joy ride to spread communism in the world a la Che in the hope to encircle China and give for good the last blow on Chiang.
I’m really hoping Mao ends up just like Che....in that he dies. Ooh maybe he dies in Nepal or Bhutan?