So Glenn, because you continue to misunderstand me, let me ask this one more time. How are the Germans, who are supplied and inserted entirely via air, as there are NO suitable ports in the South of the IoW, going to prevent a British landing to retake the Isle? It doesn't matter how big the initial garrison is. The question is how a bunch of light infantry with no mines, no armor, no artillery heavier then 37mm or so, and contested air superority AT BEST are going to prevent the British from taking back the Isle?
And let's not forget that a good portion of these 60,000 or so 'Paratroopers' are just line infantry given a hasty at best course on how to not die jumping out of a plane. So most of them have broken ankles or arms or what not from bad landings. And are hence little more then a liability. Oops, turns out that Paratroopers are not just Infantry "Thrown out of a Plane."
Because Unlike the Germans, the British DO have everything they need to launch a successful invasion of the Isle, and they actually ARE within 20 miles of their major naval base in the south, which even intensive bombardment was unable to drive the RN out.
My guess would be that about the first time an "R" Class battleship drops 400 x 15" HE rounds on Ventor and killed 300 British civilians, that the rest of the British civilians on IOW are leaving for Portsmouth on anything that will float, and the Germans will not stop them. When they got to Portsmouth, they would ask why Churchill ordered such a bombardment? Cabinet crisis?
"I'm sorry for your losses, but the Bombardment must continue."
Case closed. Everyone will think it's terribly tragic but don't you know there's a war on?