Operation Sea Lion (1974 Sandhurst Wargame)

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by Not James Stockdale, Mar 8, 2019.

  1. lordroel Well-Known Member

    Aug 25, 2006
    You know, i know about a a novel called Third Reich Victorious edited by Peter G. Tsouras with ten self-contained scenarios in which Germany ends up winning against the Allies, one of them is called the "The Little Admiral" and is about Hitler joining the High Seas Fleet during World War I, as a result of naval training and discipline, Hitler becomes a well-versed naval tactician who puts a heavy emphasis on the Kriegsmarine once he comes to power and where the Germans do mange to have a successful Sea Lion in the end.
  2. Stenz Don't judge the past by the standards of today... Monthly Donor

    May 18, 2016
    Leafy Southern Blighty
    So, Sealion has no chance of success, unless the British entice the Germans into trying it (which means they are fully prepared for the invasion to occur as part of their plan and have a fully developed idea of how to take advantage of that) and then there’s a chance it will be successful?

    Not sure I follow your thinking there, chief.

    A Nazi-Kreigsmarine Germany wouldn’t be able to have a successful Sealion as if they built the vessels required they wouldn’t be able to build the tanks they need. Or the British would “Copenhagen” their fleet as a preventative measure. Or the Soviets would steamroller them in the East when their backs were turned.
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  3. DaveBC Well-Known Member

    Apr 26, 2014
    I can't speak for sloreck obviously but I think, and this was the point I was trying to make too, that even if we can look back in retrospect and see that Sea Lion was a fool's errand, no sane leader is going to deliberately entice a foreign power to invade his country just because he's reasonably confident he can defeat them. Maybe sucker them into invading some colony somewhere, but a the home islands? This would be grossly irresponsible, and if word of the motives leaked, probably the end of the career and quite possibly the neck of any statesman.

    As for a "sea Hitler," yeah, I agree, that's not on. Fallacy #1 of Sea Lion is that the Germans just change course radically and the British sit there and do nothing in response. Since Britain can build more battleships at a time than Germany and build them faster than Germany, I do not see how Germany can "win" a naval race against Britain no matter who is in charge. If your enemy is faster than you and has a head start already, it's time to pick a different race.

    Edit: I'm having a hard time finding a source to support that last statement even though I'm sure it is true. Perhaps someone can tell me whether I'm right or wrong -- I'd like to know either way. However I do note that Wikipedia says only four German shipyards could build battleships, and I am pretty sure that the British built all of the KGV-class ships simultaneously, so that's at least a 5:4 ratio.
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2019
  4. sloreck Grunt Bear

    Aug 4, 2008
    @Stenz : My point was not that SEALION would have a chance of success, I specifically said it would not, could not conquer Britain or cause the UK to quit. The point was that even in the case of British enticing the Germans in to an "ambush", once bullets start to fly things go sideways easily. Absent Skippy the ASB interfering the Germans will fail, however if they roll sixes the British may lose more assets than they expect, the Germans may do well enough to be embarassing, etc. As I said, the Japanese succeeded beyond all expectation by rolling sixes at the same time the US and UK rolled ones for a variety of reasons (hint: don't let Percival and MacArthur shoot dice).
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  5. hipper Just running down the clock Banned

    Apr 26, 2008
    the Germans had to build up their capacity for naval guns - there's a reason S & G had 11" guns

    the UK laid down 9 capital ships in 1937 5 battleships and four carriers. that's the important ratio
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  6. DaveBC Well-Known Member

    Apr 26, 2014
    Oh yeah. I forgot about the carriers. Thanks!

    So the British laid down in one year considerably more capital ships than Nazi Germany built, period.
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  7. Antiochus V Well-Known Member

    Mar 6, 2015

    I had been thinking about writing one, but I felt people would feel it was a mass death scenario.
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  8. Athelstane Anglo-Saxon Troublemaker

    Jun 8, 2011
    Especially since while *we* have a remarkably complete picture of German capabilities and intentions in the summer of 1940, British leadership did not.
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