The North Star is Red: a Wallace Presidency, KMT Victory, Alternate Cold War TL
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By the looks of it, saying TTL Indonesian Revolution is a mess is an understatement.
Well anyway seems for now the Dutch supported side would have the long haul. Suharto shot in his feet and Manchuria is becoming Cuba in foreign policy, wasting resources and time, probably they could get some result, but they already are involved in two fronts.
Britain moved more towards a more OTL French like resistance to decolonization, it couldn't bode likely well for them long term. (I guess however they quit from India anyway). France is going to be much more lucky, if they win in Vietnam could become more intransigent about Algeria later...
Britain moved more towards a more OTL French like resistance to decolonization, it couldn't bode likely well for them long term. (I guess however they quit from India anyway). France is going to be much more lucky, if they win in Vietnam could become more intransigent about Algeria later...
Oops, I lied, because this has to come before me making sense of Korea.
The 1948 election for President was the first American presidential election since 1836 to go to the House of Representatives, and the first election ever not to be resolved by that House. Newspapers declared President-elect Dewey, both because pre-election polls had him leading President Truman by a significant and because election night saw Dewey with a clear majority in the electoral college, 267-225-39.
However, late-night returns from Cook County saw an unusual swing to Harry Truman. Truman would ultimately triumph in Illinois by .5% and in the popular vote by 3.5%. The swing of Illinois gave Truman a plurality victory, 253-239-39, sending the election to Congress under the Twelfth Amendment.
Although President Truman personally appealed to as many Southern Democrats as possible, he refused to actually compromise on his order desegregating the army. Much to their surprise, Governor Dewey also categorically refused to negotiate with them, citing a former German king when he said that he "would not accept a crown from a gutter of bigotry." Southern Democrats responded by voting for neither Truman nor Dewey, but simply withholding their vote, knowing that the Vice President would still be a likely Democrat. Thus, House of Representatives elected no President.
Dixiecrat Representatives were unwilling to vote for Harry S. Truman, but Southern senators gladly voted for their colleague, Alben Barkley. Although he didn't make too many promises, he was a known quantity and well-liked as a friend, as opposed to the poorly-known upstart Truman. In the Senate, the Democratic Party had 50 Senators and the Republican Party 46 Senators. The Senate subsequently elected Alben Barkley the Vice President of the United States and with no sitting President, Alben W. Barkley became the 34th President of the United States.
Your map almost completely inverts Truman and Dewey’s historical results, but the actual numbers line up with only CA and OH flipping. I’m guessing thats just an error.
Yes, it does. Good catch, thanks. I would go back and recolor all the states, but I'm too lazy, so I'm going to fix it with the laziest kluge ever.
Yes, it does. Good catch, thanks. I would go back and recolor all the states, but I'm too lazy, so I'm going to fix it with the laziest kluge ever.
Totally legit kludge - the red/blue standard wasn’t set until 2000.
Chapter 17 - The First Indochina War
I'm trying to clear off a lot of pre-1950's stuff, but I'm wondering what else I still have to do at this point. Probably Britain and France?
The First Indochina War
...the most crucial early mistake made by the Viet Minh was their brutal purge of Viet Quoc members after the 1946 retreat of Chinese troops from North Vietnam. Although Ho Chi Minh established himself as the primary leader of the anti-French struggle, he also alienated critical potential allies. With the remnants of the Viet Quoc aligned with France, Bao Dai, Cao Daiist militias, and various other forces, underscoring the isolation of the Viet Minh. Despite that, the Viet Minh proved very able fighters and resisted French attempts to root them out of the hills of Northern Vietnam.
However, the French would soon also overplay their hands. Seeing that the Russell Administration had made a 180-degree turn on their stance towards Dutch Indonesia, the French shelved plans to sign an agreement with Bao Dai establishing a semi-independent State of Vietnam.[1] Both the United States and Republic of China indicated their disapproval, and although not openly condemning France, they declined to aid the French mission in Indochina. Ho Chi Minh openly spoke positively about the United States and China, hoping at the very least to ensure neutrality. Although Chinese border patrols stopped any Viet Minh from crossing into Chinese territory, they declined to undertake any anti-Viet Minh operations.
After seeing American opinion harden on Dutch Indonesia and worried that such treatment would arrive for France, the French aimed to renegotiate with Bao Dai. However, after clearly being spurned by the French, Bao Dai simply had no desire to return to Vietnam. Cochinchinese French colonists used Bao Dai’s waffling to argue that the plan to create a unified Vietnamese state would fail, and Paris ultimately gave up on the plan. In late 1949, the French ultimately announced the “official” independence of the Republic of Cochinchina. In response, Bao Dao disavowed the French project. Ironically, this situation only occurred because in 1945, the French were prepared to put Duy Tan in power as Emperor of Vietnam. However, he declined when the French declined that he tolerate a French "sphere of influence" in Cochinchina.
The detachment of Cochinchina on behalf of French colonists proved a huge morale boost to the Viet Minh, who now claimed themselves as the only advocates on behalf of a united, independent Vietnam. After the mysterious deaths of its first two Prime Ministers, a local “militia leader”, Le Van Vien, was appointed Prime Minister of Cochinchina.
At a loss, the French found it difficult to find anyone willing to take up Bao Dai’s job. Most well-known figures in Vietnam followed Bao Dai’s, boycotting the French government. Ultimately, the job fell to Nguyen Van Hinh, a military man and Free French veteran who had little of Bao Dai’s legitimacy, but much more competence. The Viet Minh largely concentrated its efforts on Hinh’s Provisional Central Government of Vietnam, feeling that Cochinchina would fall easily if Hinh was dealt with. As a result, Cochinchina became a surprisingly safe place, allowing Vien to consolidate his power.
With French assistance, Hinh established a tightly authoritarian military regime across the former protectorates of Annam and Tonkin. As a general rule, Hinh tended to use his French-backed forces as a battering ram against the Viet Minh in the North (Tonkin), while allowing less organized militias (such as Trinh Minh The’s Cao Dai militia) to secure the less war-torn Annam region. Although Hinh was unable to establish public support for his regime, slowly but surely (and with great costs both in life and material), the Viet Minh was forced farther and farther into the hills of Tonkin.
In neighboring Laos, Communist forces fared even worse, with the Issara Lao crushed, and its leadership forced to retreat into Burma. Although Vietnam remained a political morass, the French found willing partners in Laos and Cambodia, and as such, the future Kingdom of Laos and Kingdom of Cambodia moved towards independence, both in 1951.[3]
With cross-border quickly established with neighboring Guangdong Province (the wealthiest province in China), living standards in Vietnam became to climb up as French forces kept at least the major commercial cities free of violence. However, wages remained stagnant for most and the Viet Minh remained undefeated, creating a cauldron of discontent that would prove vulnerable when the events of 1955 would throw a bomb into Southeast Asian politics.
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[1] The OTL Elysee Accords on March 1949.
[2] The old Imperial capital
[3] Earlier than OTL, due to a weaker Viet Minh rebellion and no Korean war.
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Yes, the PRC does seem like it has some parallels to OTL Cuba, maybe East Germany, or a mix of the two.
I don't think the IITL British stance is quite OTL France. IITL Britain isn't currently trying to keep Burma as a colony or plant settlers anywhere (ala Algeria). It's more of an American-style anti-communist intervention, maybe thrown in with a little hope that a grateful Ne Win regime would accept a fairly loose Commonwealth-style arrangement (like India). IIRC, Burma left the Commonwealth almost immediately in a way that India didn't. Of the major colonial powers, I think ITTL Britain is still the least obstinate about its empire.
If I want to be truly realistic, I can arbitrarily switch between red/blue based on the election year for no good reason. This is appealing because I suck at election graphics.
Mmm Southeast Asia in flames...
Regarding Cambodia, perhaps Norodom Sihanouk stills signs up with China and the Busan Pact? Sihanouk did see China and a strong Asian power as Cambodia's future, and the Busan Pact might strengthen such sentiments.
That aside, how do you feel about map updates every ten years? As in I do a map for the TL once 1960/70/80... comes.
Regarding Cambodia, perhaps Norodom Sihanouk stills signs up with China and the Busan Pact? Sihanouk did see China and a strong Asian power as Cambodia's future, and the Busan Pact might strengthen such sentiments.
That aside, how do you feel about map updates every ten years? As in I do a map for the TL once 1960/70/80... comes.
That was very good update. I wonder what the bomb will be? Also I hope that Pol Pot doesn’t try anything.
That would be awesome! Once again, all of your work is wonderfully appreciated!
Well, Southeast Asia is in flames, but that's pretty OTL. IITL Indochina is considerably more peaceful than OTL Indochina right now (ie, things being sort-of-calm in 1950, which is when the Indochina War ramped up into total war). Indonesia/Burma seem considerably more violent. And obviously, China/Korea is more peaceful.
Chapter 17.5 - The Republic of Cochinchina
Really, I randomly was inspired to make this short update because I was playing Yakuza 0. I think the UK comes next, then maybe Malaya/the Philippines?
His aims became very obvious, after the mysterious death of Cochinchina’s first post-independence president. Maneuvering himself into power directly after, Bay Vien quickly treated the Republic of Cochinchina and Binh Xuyen as interchangeable tools of his grand ambitions. On paper, Cochinchina presented itself as a model colony of France - free of Viet Minh insurgents and peaceful. Taxes were low and foreign businesses allowed to freely transact and do business. Saigon quickly became a popular tourist destination for French, British, Chinese, American, and Japanese. However, underneath the surface, his regime was funded by opium trafficking, constant murder, sex slavery trafficking, and the diversion of foreign humanitarian aid (which was quite generous because of his anti-Communism) into his own coffers.
He quickly struck arrangements with other anti-Communist, far-right leaders in Asia. Most notably, Yoshio Kodama, the prominent Japanese neofascist and yakuza boss, as well as Triad leader Du Yuesheng and his Green Gang, were both major supporters of Bay Vien, helping ensuring a steady, albeit illicit supply of Japanese and Chinese aid to his regime. In particular, Bay Vien enjoyed the sympathy of the Japanese Minister of International Trade and Industry (MITI), Nobusuke Kishi, ensuring another income stream. Cochinchina also grew close to more mainstream leaders, like Syngman Rhee of South Korea and Elpidio Quirino of the Philippines. He shunned the rebels in Indonesia, which caused most of the European colonial powers to view him as a "compliant" local ruler.
Bay Vien’s Binh Xuyen mafia quickly grew to operate as a de facto secret police force in Cochinchina, “disappearing” all of his political enemies, including almost anyone suspected of Communist or Viet Minh leanings. Or anyone who objected to the notion of a mafia group running a country. His own writings noted that he considered his own personal criminal army to be the “SS of Vietnam.” As a result, the actual official Cochinchina Army remained rather small, and as a further result, the Viet Minh largely ignored his regime in Saigon, unaware that he was slowly assembling one of the most advanced and ruthless armies in Southeast Asia.
The Republic of Cochinchina
Le Van Vien, often known as Bay Vien (Vien the Seventh) was not anyone’s expected first major leader of any country. Leader of the Binh Xuyen, one of the largest organized crime syndicates in Asia, Bay Vien began his political career when he sold his “policing” services to Imperial Japan during the Empire of Vietnam era. The SDECE, French intelligence, was aware of Vien and thought of him as a possible threat, but he surprisingly sided with many French colonists who desired the separation of Cochinchin, causing them to view him as an anti-Communist bulwark.
His aims became very obvious, after the mysterious death of Cochinchina’s first post-independence president. Maneuvering himself into power directly after, Bay Vien quickly treated the Republic of Cochinchina and Binh Xuyen as interchangeable tools of his grand ambitions. On paper, Cochinchina presented itself as a model colony of France - free of Viet Minh insurgents and peaceful. Taxes were low and foreign businesses allowed to freely transact and do business. Saigon quickly became a popular tourist destination for French, British, Chinese, American, and Japanese. However, underneath the surface, his regime was funded by opium trafficking, constant murder, sex slavery trafficking, and the diversion of foreign humanitarian aid (which was quite generous because of his anti-Communism) into his own coffers.
He quickly struck arrangements with other anti-Communist, far-right leaders in Asia. Most notably, Yoshio Kodama, the prominent Japanese neofascist and yakuza boss, as well as Triad leader Du Yuesheng and his Green Gang, were both major supporters of Bay Vien, helping ensuring a steady, albeit illicit supply of Japanese and Chinese aid to his regime. In particular, Bay Vien enjoyed the sympathy of the Japanese Minister of International Trade and Industry (MITI), Nobusuke Kishi, ensuring another income stream. Cochinchina also grew close to more mainstream leaders, like Syngman Rhee of South Korea and Elpidio Quirino of the Philippines. He shunned the rebels in Indonesia, which caused most of the European colonial powers to view him as a "compliant" local ruler.
Bay Vien’s Binh Xuyen mafia quickly grew to operate as a de facto secret police force in Cochinchina, “disappearing” all of his political enemies, including almost anyone suspected of Communist or Viet Minh leanings. Or anyone who objected to the notion of a mafia group running a country. His own writings noted that he considered his own personal criminal army to be the “SS of Vietnam.” As a result, the actual official Cochinchina Army remained rather small, and as a further result, the Viet Minh largely ignored his regime in Saigon, unaware that he was slowly assembling one of the most advanced and ruthless armies in Southeast Asia.
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An anti-communist Pol Pot who is also Vietnamese? Well that’s terrifying.
He seems to me more likeva Batista or Somoza. Maybe a Papa Doc if he goes insane.
Now that I think about it, Bay Vien does seem similar to Fulgencio Batista.