I'm trying to clear off a lot of pre-1950's stuff, but I'm wondering what else I still have to do at this point. Probably Britain and France?
The First Indochina War
...the most crucial early mistake made by the Viet Minh was their brutal purge of Viet Quoc members after the 1946 retreat of Chinese troops from North Vietnam. Although Ho Chi Minh established himself as the primary leader of the anti-French struggle, he also alienated critical potential allies. With the remnants of the Viet Quoc aligned with France, Bao Dai, Cao Daiist militias, and various other forces, underscoring the isolation of the Viet Minh. Despite that, the Viet Minh proved very able fighters and resisted French attempts to root them out of the hills of Northern Vietnam.
However, the French would soon also overplay their hands. Seeing that the Russell Administration had made a 180-degree turn on their stance towards Dutch Indonesia, the French shelved plans to sign an agreement with Bao Dai establishing a semi-independent State of Vietnam.[1] Both the United States and Republic of China indicated their disapproval, and although not openly condemning France, they declined to aid the French mission in Indochina. Ho Chi Minh openly spoke positively about the United States and China, hoping at the very least to ensure neutrality. Although Chinese border patrols stopped any Viet Minh from crossing into Chinese territory, they declined to undertake any anti-Viet Minh operations.
After seeing American opinion harden on Dutch Indonesia and worried that such treatment would arrive for France, the French aimed to renegotiate with Bao Dai. However, after clearly being spurned by the French, Bao Dai simply had no desire to return to Vietnam. Cochinchinese French colonists used Bao Dai’s waffling to argue that the plan to create a unified Vietnamese state would fail, and Paris ultimately gave up on the plan. In late 1949, the French ultimately announced the “official” independence of the Republic of Cochinchina. In response, Bao Dao disavowed the French project. Ironically, this situation only occurred because in 1945, the French were prepared to put Duy Tan in power as Emperor of Vietnam. However, he declined when the French declined that he tolerate a French "sphere of influence" in Cochinchina.
The detachment of Cochinchina on behalf of French colonists proved a huge morale boost to the Viet Minh, who now claimed themselves as the only advocates on behalf of a united, independent Vietnam. After the mysterious deaths of its first two Prime Ministers, a local “militia leader”, Le Van Vien, was appointed Prime Minister of Cochinchina.
At a loss, the French found it difficult to find anyone willing to take up Bao Dai’s job. Most well-known figures in Vietnam followed Bao Dai’s, boycotting the French government. Ultimately, the job fell to Nguyen Van Hinh, a military man and Free French veteran who had little of Bao Dai’s legitimacy, but much more competence. The Viet Minh largely concentrated its efforts on Hinh’s Provisional Central Government of Vietnam, feeling that Cochinchina would fall easily if Hinh was dealt with. As a result, Cochinchina became a surprisingly safe place, allowing Vien to consolidate his power.
With French assistance, Hinh established a tightly authoritarian military regime across the former protectorates of Annam and Tonkin. As a general rule, Hinh tended to use his French-backed forces as a battering ram against the Viet Minh in the North (Tonkin), while allowing less organized militias (such as Trinh Minh The’s Cao Dai militia) to secure the less war-torn Annam region. Although Hinh was unable to establish public support for his regime, slowly but surely (and with great costs both in life and material), the Viet Minh was forced farther and farther into the hills of Tonkin.
In neighboring Laos, Communist forces fared even worse, with the Issara Lao crushed, and its leadership forced to retreat into Burma. Although Vietnam remained a political morass, the French found willing partners in Laos and Cambodia, and as such, the future Kingdom of Laos and Kingdom of Cambodia moved towards independence, both in 1951.[3]
With cross-border quickly established with neighboring Guangdong Province (the wealthiest province in China), living standards in Vietnam became to climb up as French forces kept at least the major commercial cities free of violence. However, wages remained stagnant for most and the Viet Minh remained undefeated, creating a cauldron of discontent that would prove vulnerable when the events of 1955 would throw a bomb into Southeast Asian politics.
---
[1] The OTL Elysee Accords on March 1949.
[2] The old Imperial capital
[3] Earlier than OTL, due to a weaker Viet Minh rebellion and no Korean war.