The final margin of victory for Trump in IA and OH suggest to me that he'd win those anyway, and I'm not sure how much the Access Hollywood tape actually hurt Trump.2016 if the release of the Comey letter and the Access Hollywood tape was reversed:
Hillary wins in a near-landslide, while McMullin makes a last minute push in Utah, and manages to win there. roughly 39-30-29. he also gets 25% in Idaho.
It's interesting that so many candidates lose their home states, even in a four candidate race.Gov. Colin Powell (J-NY)/Rep. Don Bacque(J-LA) 277 EVs
Sen. Alan Cranston (D-CA)/Sen. Gary Hart (D-CO) 102 EVs
Rep. Jeane Kirkpatrick (R-OK)/Gov. Lowell Weicker (R-CT) 83 EVs
Gov. Evan Mecham (AIP-AZ)/Gov. George Wallace III (AIP-AL) 76 EVs
Firstly, I'd like to say this map is absolutely beautiful and I'm very appreciative of you for making it.
As for the state results, this would be my guess:
the states that are shaded >30% are the closest states.
This third one looks the most correct to me. THe first two did not make NM Democratic enough given the county map and where that state's population is concentrated.Updated version:View attachment 347024
I really don't see Romney carrying a state here that Obama did historically, given these candidates and the way other states have fallen, Texas for example.2012 as 1912.
Barack Obama (D-IL)/Joe Biden (D-DE) 472 Electoral Votes - 39.4% Popular Vote
Mitt Romney (IR-MA)/John Kasich (IR-OH) 42 Electoral Votes - 24.1% Popular Vote
Judge Roy Moore (R-AL)/Dr. Ben Carson (R-MD) 17 Electoral Votes - 23.5% Popular Vote
Bernie Sanders (DS-VT)/Tulsi Gabbard (DS-HI) 7 Electoral Votes - 12.9% Popular Vote
Spencer (R) vs Stein (D) vs third party (my guess)
View attachment 347190
That's way too generous to Spencer, he's legitimately a white supremacist, no dog whistles, no bones about it.
This is my map if there's no third party:
With a centrist third party ticket (something like Larry Hogan/Joe Manchin):
The problem in all of these scenarios is that they seem to assume that there is some metric by which Spencer could be measured as a Republican. Take health care, taxes, or guns, and Hogan is already to Spencer's right, leaving alone any other issue. It's generous to give Spencer any of these states.