Alternate Electoral Maps II

[Wendell]

2016 if the release of the Comey letter and the Access Hollywood tape was reversed:
Hillary wins in a near-landslide, while McMullin makes a last minute push in Utah, and manages to win there. roughly 39-30-29. he also gets 25% in Idaho.

The final margin of victory for Trump in IA and OH suggest to me that he'd win those anyway, and I'm not sure how much the Access Hollywood tape actually hurt Trump.

Gov. Colin Powell (J-NY)/Rep. Don Bacque(J-LA) 277 EVs
Sen. Alan Cranston (D-CA)/Sen. Gary Hart (D-CO) 102 EVs
Rep. Jeane Kirkpatrick (R-OK)/Gov. Lowell Weicker (R-CT) 83 EVs
Gov. Evan Mecham (AIP-AZ)/Gov. George Wallace III (AIP-AL) 76 EVs

It's interesting that so many candidates lose their home states, even in a four candidate race.

View attachment 347001

Firstly, I'd like to say this map is absolutely beautiful and I'm very appreciative of you for making it.

As for the state results, this would be my guess:

the states that are shaded >30% are the closest states.

Updated version:View attachment 347024

This third one looks the most correct to me. THe first two did not make NM Democratic enough given the county map and where that state's population is concentrated.

2012 as 1912.

Barack Obama (D-IL)/Joe Biden (D-DE) 472 Electoral Votes - 39.4% Popular Vote
Mitt Romney (IR-MA)/John Kasich (IR-OH) 42 Electoral Votes - 24.1% Popular Vote
Judge Roy Moore (R-AL)/Dr. Ben Carson (R-MD) 17 Electoral Votes - 23.5% Popular Vote
Bernie Sanders (DS-VT)/Tulsi Gabbard (DS-HI) 7 Electoral Votes - 12.9% Popular Vote

I really don't see Romney carrying a state here that Obama did historically, given these candidates and the way other states have fallen, Texas for example.

Spencer (R) vs Stein (D) vs third party (my guess)
View attachment 347190

That's way too generous to Spencer, he's legitimately a white supremacist, no dog whistles, no bones about it.


This is my map if there's no third party:

With a centrist third party ticket (something like Larry Hogan/Joe Manchin):

The problem in all of these scenarios is that they seem to assume that there is some metric by which Spencer could be measured as a Republican. Take health care, taxes, or guns, and Hogan is already to Spencer's right, leaving alone any other issue. It's generous to give Spencer any of these states.

 

[Wendell]

If he wins the popular vote by 18%, there's no way he doesn't win Texas.

Results and swings are not always uniform.

 

[Gentleman Biaggi]

It's interesting that so many candidates lose their home states, even in a four candidate race.

They only win their home states when it's convenient!

 

[Keeganc2020]

i can see him getting no less then 25% America is WAY more chill with fascism then we like to believe tbh

 

[Keeganc2020]

Spencer (R) vs Stein (D) vs third party (my guess)
View attachment 347190

John Kasich and Tim Kaine ?

 

[Tex Arkana]

Results and swings are not always uniform.

Absolutely, but I highly doubt Dukakis is going to lose a state that he only lost by 12% IOTL when he's going from a 7% PV loss to an 18% PV win.

 

[Tex Arkana]

i can see him getting no less then 25% America is WAY more chill with fascism then we like to believe tbh

In a two person race, he gets 30-35% most likely. In the scenario where there is a centrist third party ticket, he probably doesn't even crack 20%.

 

[Calthrina950]

I am posting here a revised version of my earlier congressional districts map to reflect changes in Tennessee. I am almost certain that Rutherford, in my scenario, would win more than just the Nashville and Memphis-based districts. Looking at the percentages on my county map (of which I will also be posting an updated version), I believe that he would carry the 8th, 7th, and 4th districts, in addition to the 5th and 9th. Those districts encompass populous counties, such as the suburbs of Memphis and Nashville, which Rutherford wins decisively, along with other rural counties. I also have some doubts about the 2nd and 3rd districts; it's possible that the 3rd goes Republican. Clarification would be appreciated:

https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/novelas/images/6/66/Election_of_2016,_by_Congressional_District.png/revision/latest?cb=20171003032740

And here is the revised county percentages map, with changes to shading in Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Arkansas:

https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/novelas/images/6/6f/United_States_presidential_election_by_county,_2016_(percentages).png/revision/latest?cb=20171002204710​

 

[killertahu22]

I am posting here a revised version of my earlier congressional districts map to reflect changes in Tennessee. I am almost certain that Rutherford, in my scenario, would win more than just the Nashville and Memphis-based districts. Looking at the percentages on my county map (of which I will also be posting an updated version), I believe that he would carry the 8th, 7th, and 4th districts, in addition to the 5th and 9th. Those districts encompass populous counties, such as the suburbs of Memphis and Nashville, which Rutherford wins decisively, along with other rural counties. I also have some doubts about the 2nd and 3rd districts; it's possible that the 3rd goes Republican. Clarification would be appreciated:

https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/novelas/images/6/66/Election_of_2016,_by_Congressional_District.png/revision/latest?cb=20171003032740

And here is the revised county percentages map, with changes to shading in Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Arkansas:

https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/novelas/images/6/6f/United_States_presidential_election_by_county,_2016_(percentages).png/revision/latest?cb=20171002204710​

I'm not one to nitpick, but isn't it frowned upon to exclusively post links to another website?

If you're able to, you should post the image here as well as post the link

 

[Fed]

Wasn't Gabbard only 31 (and not in Congress yet) in 2012?

It's a little known fact that Newton's fourth law of physics is actually if Bernie Sanders launches a third party presidential run, his VP will always be Tulsi Gabbard.

 

[Calthrina950]

I'm not one to nitpick, but isn't it frowned upon to exclusively post links to another website?

If you're able to, you should post the image here as well as post the link

When I put the post up, I was having difficulty with uploading the images. But let me see if I can now:

The revised congressional districts map:

And the revised county percentages map:

Assistance with my questions about the congressional districts in Tennessee (and elsewhere), would be much appreciated.​

 

[killertahu22]

When I put the post up, I was having difficulty with uploading the images. But let me see if I can now:

The revised congressional districts map:

And the revised county percentages map:

Assistance with my questions about the congressional districts in Tennessee (and elsewhere), would be much appreciated.​

Nice! Who ran third party?

 

[Calthrina950]

Nice! Who ran third party?

Gary Johnson and Jill Stein were the third-party candidates in this scenario (which I derived from a game I played on the Campaign Trail map), but the third-party vote was just 2.35%. Rutherford beat Trump 63.58-34.07. I posted these maps again because I am trying to make an exact determination of who would win what congressional districts. I am particularly doubtful about Tennessee, and I was hoping someone here with enough knowledge could confirm the accuracy of the districts map I made.

 

[naraht]

Gary Johnson and Jill Stein were the third-party candidates in this scenario (which I derived from a game I played on the Campaign Trail map), but the third-party vote was just 2.35%. Rutherford beat Trump 63.58-34.07. I posted these maps again because I am trying to make an exact determination of who would win what congressional districts. I am particularly doubtful about Tennessee, and I was hoping someone here with enough knowledge could confirm the accuracy of the districts map I made.

So Rutherford won the county that has Provo, Utah? Wow!

 

[Calthrina950]

So Rutherford won the county that has Provo, Utah? Wow!

Yes. In this scenario, the Mormon dislike for Trump that we saw in OTL actually translates into Utah going Democratic. Plus, there is the fact that Rutherford is a popular incumbent, and nothing like Hillary Clinton. You can actually see a similar trend throughout the country, for all the voters who supported Trump reluctantly in OTL, who voted third party or made write-ins out of protest at the two major parties, and those who didn't vote at all mobilize behind the President, who also wins over moderates and independents, and energizes the Democratic base...So that produces the map seen here.

 

[Tex Arkana]

I decided to see what the county map would look like if the 1972 Presidential election was reversed - with McGovern winning 49 states and 61% of the Popular Vote... the results just go to show that even when he's winning 49 states, McGovern still lacks widespread appeal. still, the only state Nixon wins is Mississippi (by about 7.5%).

 

[killertahu22]

I decided to see what the county map would look like if the 1972 Presidential election was reversed - with McGovern winning 49 states and 61% of the Popular Vote... the results just go to show that even when he's winning 49 states, McGovern still lacks widespread appeal. still, the only state Nixon wins is Mississippi (by about 7.5%).

At a glance, his support looks pretty widespread to me

 

[Tex Arkana]

At a glance, his support looks pretty widespread to me

Sure, but Nixon wins a ridiculous number of counties considering he only wins a single state and 37% of the Popular Vote.

Also, this isn't just the GOP advantage with rural counties, because Nixon wins a pretty large number of populous counties (Orange CA, Collin TX, Virginia Beach VA).

 

[Calthrina950]

So Rutherford won the county that has Provo, Utah? Wow!

Also, do you have any suggestions to make about my congressional districts map? I'm still trying to determine how the districts in Tennessee (and maybe elsewhere), would go, based upon the counties. That is the state that I have the most confusion about.

 

[TheSaint250]

2040 Election Prediction​