IMO, Tallahassee would get hit (it is, after all, a state capital), so it's likely an oversight (although, like with Lincoln in Nebraska, there's always a chance that a nuke could go off-course/not detonate/or take off) on the map. Gainesville would likely become the alternate state capital (it's the home of the University of Florida, and it's unlikely to get hit).

Likewise, Daytona Beach is unlikely to get hit (hope we see something from Daytona; the NASCAR race at Daytona is coming up (and, ITTL, is going to get canceled, if Land of Flatwater is anything to go by), too...
 
Jan's phone call had me in tears. The Pilot comment on Noriega had me rolling on the floor. I see Turtledove Award here, just sayin. :)

Coming from the author of one of the best timelines I read on this board in my three+ years here, that's high praise that I will gleefully accept. =)
 
I managed to find the Nukemap pic you were referring to (that's a lot of groundbursts!). I understand now that it's canon that Fort Myers area won't get hit. So...it sounds like Fort Myers/Cape Coral could well go on to become the biggest city in South Florida, if not the whole state in the post-Exchange era. Also, I notice Tallahassee isn't marked as hit, and the same goes for Cape Canaveral. So if this is going to be the case, then Florida has at least have a state capital still standing - means that at least some semblance of law and order may be restored sooner rather than later to all parts of Florida. And if the fallout clears up well enough, then NASA could have a shot at resuming its space program (but manned spaceflight likely may not occur for a long time at least), as well as launching satellites to replace those lost during the Exchange.

In addition to what you said about not everything being on the target list, not every nuke from the Soviets is going to detonate successfully, make it to their targets and even fly out of their silos. Same will go for US/British/French nukes. It makes perfect sense that there likely would be many potential targets still standing even after a global nuclear war in the 1980s.

If Rosa has any chance of making it to Fort Myers, she should start evacuating now, now that the news coming from the other side of the pond are getting more and more dire.

I had the benefit of prior timelines that touched upon what hit the US. Yes, I know it's kind of showing ahead of time what'll happen, but that briefing showed the likely hits, and the reason there are so many groundbursts is the runways. You can wipe out an airport with an airburst for sure, but runways are heavily reinforced, and you don't want bombers having a place to come home now, do you? Florida is home to a crapload of aviation bases, and the Soviets would damn sure have redundancy on places like Hurlburt, Eglin, Key West, Pensacola, etc., plus I imagine that an old missile sub may well be hanging around Cuba, if not some cleverly reintroduced SRBM's.

Tallahassee was already established as not having received a hit, which probably gets chalked up to a missile sub being sunk before completing its mission, especially since it was a third-tier target because Florida has so many military targets that it's not worth being a first or second target. All those air bases have to go first.
 
Just curious, where was it established that Tallahassee had not received a hit, wolverinethad? Not being rude, just curious...

Yes, Rosa should leave. Yesterday.

Edit: Yes, if Tallahassee survives, postwar Florida has a better chance of order being restored, IMO. It's also going to be (at over 81,000 people in the 1980 census), the largest surviving city in Florida and one of the largest surviving cities in the South, behind the Golden Triangle region of Texas and most of New Orleans (1)...

Less likely to survive is NASA; the Soviets are going to target Cape Canaveral with several nuclear weapons, just like they likely have a couple of nukes heading to the Johnson Space Center.

Jan should also buy a shortwave radio, if he can; it'd be useful in picking up stations postwar...

(1) Both areas were confirmed as having survived in prior P&S spinoffs; East New Orleans was destroyed by the hit on the Michoud plant, and WWL is likely to be heard in Fort Myers (I can pick it up in Corpus Christi on occasion), especially after the Florida radio stations are destroyed.
 
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Potentially dumb question that's probably been asked before: Is there a list of all the Protect and Survive threads/stories/cities, a list of targets that get hit, etc.?
 
Chapter 23
Chapter 23
February 3, 1984
Tallahassee, Florida
Closed Session, State Legislature

Recent developments had created a massive stir amongst the legislators, so after speaking with the governor's office, a special closed joint session was called. Major General Ensslin, the head of the Florida Guard, was delivering a briefing to legislators on Operation GATOR BOWL, which would be the relocation of the legislature to Gainesville. This was followed by a security briefing (unclassified), which detailed the broad level threats, and finally, a briefing from the civil defense director. This last one drew a hail of questions from legislators who wanted to know why their constituencies weren't receiving rations or reinforced shelters. These, of course, were representatives and senators from cities that would be squarely in the bullseye of nuclear missiles and bombs, and lacked appreciation from what would happen if they hit.

"Ladies and gentlemen," Ensslin said, "if you want to know why we aren't putting more resources there, this is why." He pulled up a map of the latest targeting projections he and the Air Guard commander had drawn up.

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"As you can see here, there is a significant number of military and city targets in the center of our state. We will be cleaved in two if the Soviets can successfully hit those targets if a war goes nuclear. We simply cannot afford to spend valuable resources in areas that will receive multiple nuclear detonations. These are the areas we are certain will get hit.

  • St. Pete International Airport
  • Fort MacDill, Tampa
  • Tampa International Airport
  • Orlando Sanford Airport
  • Orlando International Airport
  • Cape Canaveral
  • Patrick AFB, South Patrick Shores
  • Eglin AFB, Valparaiso
  • NAS Pensacola
  • Hurlburt Field, Wright
  • Tyndall AFB, Panama City
  • Downtown Miami
  • Miami International Airport
  • Homestead AFB, Homestead
  • NAS Key West
  • Jacksonville International Airport/FANG Jacksonville
  • NAS Whiting Field, Milton
If these attacks hit as expected, we expect an immediate amount of deaths on the level of 750,000 people and severe injuries of another 1.5 to two million people, many of whom will die in the first 72 hours after an attack. Consider that for a second. Consider the strain that will put on us, struggling to feed the survivors, struggling to transport anything or anyone in a state cut in two by these attacks. The entire center of this state is going to be what is known as "fallout black," a literal dead zone where nobody can travel through because they will die before they get clear of it. Now, I do not need to remind you that this information does not leave this room, but I'm going to anyways. Quite frankly, what I have told you is not something you are cleared to know, but in the interests of saving this state, I have done so. If this is leaked, I will find out who has done it, and I will have you arrested for violating the Espionage Act! Are we clear?"

There were no more arguments in the chamber, just a long, heavy silence.

*****

Fort Myers, Florida

Rosa, Adriana, Carlos and her mother, Mariposa, were in a two-bedroom apartment they'd found in a small complex called the Jackson Plaza Apartments. It fit Jan's description: few windows, concrete building, well clear of the small airport there. It was also crowded. Barely 750 square feet, four people didn't have much room to move in there. Sleeping on air mattresses wasn't very comfortable, either, but it was the best option they had. There was no point on spending on furniture for what was, essentially, a bomb shelter. Rosa was also lonely as hell. She missed Jan, missed feeling his arms around her. It was two days and it felt like two months already. At least she had her mother's cooking, which was better than hers, and she had her father looking out for them. Adriana felt like she was on vacation. They went to the ocean and a waterpark, doing their best to keep her happy.

Right now, she was sitting in the living room, reading a book. Adriana was sleeping in the bedroom that Rosa shared with her, and her parents were watching Dallas. The episodes had been filmed months before, so they and other shows were a nice escape that didn't focus on the world as it was, but how it used to be. When the phone rang, Rosa practically sprinted across the room to grab it, both out of anxiety and because she didn’t want Adriana to wake up.

“Hello?”

“Hi, baby, it’s me,” Jan said on the other end, hours away at home. “How are you doing so far?” Rosa replied, “Jan, I’m dying without you here. I didn’t think I could miss you so much. Like, when you were on a stakeout and didn’t come home for a few days, I at least knew you were close by, but now…” She took a deep breath, the tear running down her cheek silently. “It’s just really hard. I’m afraid for you, for us. I keep trying to be strong, I’m even avoiding the news and just letting Papa watch it. I can’t bear to look at it, because nothing is positive right now. It’s just all about how everyone is waiting for war to come.”

“Rosa, I’m so sorry. You know I don’t want it to be like this. At least I’ve got some good news for you,” Jan said, smiling in his empty house as he said it. “What is it?” Rosa asked. “We’ve gotten two big leads on this bastard, including a witness. If we’re really lucky, we’re going to bust his ass in the act tomorrow night. I can barely wait. I feel like I’m about to play in the Orange Bowl, just like my Huskers.” That last line made Rosa smile. He always makes me smile, even when I don’t want to. “Honey, I’m glad to hear that, I really hope you do so you can get out of Miami. Adriana’s on vacation in her little head, but I’m just missing my amazing husband, and praying every night that he returns safely to me.”

“I know, babe. So, how’s the apartment?”

“It smells like my mother’s kitchen. There’s a grand total of three windows, looking at a parking lot or the street. It’s small and we’re crowded, but it’s close to the river and it’s far from the airport, like you said. It’s solid, like it was built to withstand a hurricane. Daddy has already gotten everything ready so we can quickly seal it up if we need to. God, Jan, I really hope we don’t have to. I’m not sure living in a small place like this without fresh air is any better than dying.” Jan heard the fear in his wife’s voice and teared up himself. Lord, please save us from ourselves. Don’t let us blow the planet up. Most of us just want to live in peace. We need you to stop this before it’s too late, make Reagan and Andropov and all of these people see the light. You promised us never again after the Ark. Did you mean it?
 
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Little do they realize that actual steering wind flow will push the fallout east on the I-10 corridor. Tallahassee might not get hit, but they'll get dusted moderately.
 
Thus why a former weatherman like me loves it so much. :p

It is glorious that it matters intensely if it rained somewhere on February 28(?) 1984, or surface temperature that day, wind speed, and so on, and that literally meaning life or death and changing whole swaths of history. Man is an illusion. Earth is the only character, uncaring, unable to care, and distant from human concepts and moralities. No one belongs anywhere. Let's go watch television.

 
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What the wind barbs mean on the chart. Fat end is where the wind is coming from, thin end direction it is heading to. Anyone going to the northern Bahamas is SOL.
 
Little do they realize that actual steering wind flow will push the fallout east on the I-10 corridor. Tallahassee might not get hit, but they'll get dusted moderately.

Would the precipitation mean the fallout washes out more quickly? High-altitude stuff, I imagine, wouldn't be much affected, but I'm rusty on the specifics.
 
Observations from the map:

--I'm surprised they didn't put Tallahassee on the target list, even if this is limited to first strikes only*.

--Walton County on the panhandle, including the Choctawhatchee River Water Management Area, looks like it'll have to fend for itself. Also, forget about help from Alabama, because Fort Rucker is north of the county and just west of Dothan and is likely to get hit during a first strike.

--IF St. Petersburg proper isn't directly hit, you may be able to connect north and south through this route:

---I-75 from Fort Lauderdale (if not hit) west to Naples, and north into Fort Myers, Port Charlotte, Sarasota and Bradenton
---I-75 in Bradenton to the I-275 bridge into St. Petersburg
---from there, take the US-19 exit onto 54th Avenue South/Pinellas Bayway (state road 688) west to Gulf Boulevard/State road 699 north
---north to Walsingham Road/688 east into Largo
---east to Seminole Boulevard/595/alt-Highway 19 north thru Clearwater, New Port Richey to Highway 98
---and then 98 north to Perry, taking 19 to Capps, then 27 west into Tallahassee, or
---98 north into Otter Creek, and 24 east straight into Gainesville

As you may be able to tell, I probably put a tad too much thought into this :) However, hugging the west coastline seems to be the only way to connect north and south and avoid that Tampa/Orlando fallout zone.

* And if this turns out to be the complete target list.
 
Good update; like that you mentioned the TV show Dallas...

Go get Manny, Jan, if you can!!! The tensions are really starting to build up here; hope he manages to leave Miami before it hits the fan...

BrianD, Fort Lauderdale is likely to be hit, IMO...
 
Going by that thread, St. Petersburg and Tampa are both mentioned as having been nuked, BrianD, along with Miami, Jacksonville, and Orlando. The Tampa-St. Petersburg area and the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach area will probably get the most nuclear weapons in the state, followed by the Panhandle. I'm not envying Graham; if I were him, I'd just try to save who I could (a lot of Florida won't get fallout). With regards to possible strikes/damage to nuclear plants in Florida (Crystal River, St. Lucie, Turkey Point), Turkey Point is likely to get the most damage (assuming either of the other two don't get hit), since it's only 10 miles from Homestead AFB (which likely gets a nuke or two to catch any air bombers); the good news here is that the NEC (Nuclear Energy Commission) orders all nuclear plants shut down on February 16th, the day before the conventional war breaks out (this is from Chip's TL). Of course, if St. Lucie and Crystal River escape being nuked (which is likely, IMO; they're down with Tallahassee on the target list, with many cities and military targets in Florida as higher priority), this might help with restoring some power. That would be the irony here: that nuclear power ensures Florida's survival after a nuclear exchange...

Postwar Florida will be a mess, even if Tallahassee escapes damage (which would help with restoring order in Florida postwar); about the only good thing is that the fallout on Florida's east coast is blowing out to sea and there'll be no fallout from the Midwest nuclear missile silo strikes.

In addition to the strikes and the fallout on the Panhandle, the Panhandle also be dealing with the fallout from the strikes on Mobile, Alabama...

Just my .02 and waiting for more...
 
Addressing a few things that have come up here:

  • Tallahassee, because of the breadth of targets militarily within Florida, was a state capital that fell into the third-tier for an exchange. Because of this, it WILL survive, per canon.
  • I don't have Ft. Lauderdale on the list, as the Operation PROSPERO list does not include it. I don't believe its airport was big enough at the time to justify a strike. I will add the caveat that Macragge wrote, in story, that there was no way to gather a complete target list, but even the spinoffs don't add it or Tally in there.
  • Turkey Point, even with a direct groundburst of 1 MT on Homestead AFB, is outside the blast zone. It'll get a heavy fallout bath, but that's it. Even if it gets hit by slight blast damage, it shouldn't be enough to rupture a reactor core, based on my knowledge of how those are built.
  • I've been talking with @vl100butch about Pensacola, and he had it surviving while another spinoff somewhere had it getting nuked (it's on the target list in the Wiki for the P&Sverse. Would appreciate input from other spinoff authors reading this: @Chipperback @Tsar of New Zealand @JN1 -- not sure how to resolve this continuity conflict.
  • The St. Petersburg airport sits directly between US-19 and I-275 (FL), and MacDill sits astride US-92. Tampa international is also astride I-275 & US-92. I-75 is going to be fallout black. There will be no driving that for quite some time, @BrianD.
So, y'all will see the full list of strikes when we hit that point in the story, but I wanted to address some of these points.
 
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