I just found this excellent story. Very well written!

There is a question I've always had regarding targets of nuclear missles. What targeting effect would the first few nuclear blasts have on subsequent inbound warheads? For example, say the first warheads to arrive in Florida were targeting Tampa. When those warheads exploded, what happens to the accuracy of the other inbound warheads targeting Florida? The resulting shock waves in the atmosphere must effect the trajectories of subsequent warheads. In other words, instead of accurate "sniper rifle" shots, would a "scatter gun" distribution result, and therefore no place is "safe".

ric350

Thanks for the kind words.

Regarding your question, it's called fratricide, and it's why so much effort went into the U.S. SIOP. Time-on-target was very important, and there was, as I recall, about a 15 minute gap is required for the blast wave to fully pass and EMP to dissipate. Too long of a wait and the fallout will trash an incoming missile. Too short and the blast will incinerate it. Something to keep in mind is that (and I assume this is true of the Soviet/Russian SIOP as well) there were different launch platforms allocated to different targets. For example, the SLBM's would hit certain targets first, followed by ICBM's 20 minutes later, then the bombers that make it through the air defenses would hit targets missed or other close targets when there's two close together. The shockwaves don't last more than a few minutes, tops.

Nukes, by the way, are more or less scatter gun to begin with, because that destruction goes far and wide.
 
Chapter 25
Chapter 25
February 9, 1984
Tallahassee, Florida


Bob Graham was home at a decent hour for the first time in over two months. Most of what needed to be done had been done. The seed program was underway, with farmers all over the state having raised greenhouses and planted vegetables. At substantial cost, Graham was able to procure a day’s worth of refined gasoline from Chevron, and it had been distributed to several secured key points around the state that were not expected to be hit. Gainesville received a somewhat larger amount, as it was going to be the temporary state capital when war broke out. Utilizing the idea of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, Graham had stockpiled meals prepared for astronauts. With civilian NASA missions shelved, the state was able to convince the Kennedy Space Center to donate their stockpile of “astro food.”

The governor was also mulling how to handle the surprising request he’d received yesterday evening. Gainesville’s most famous residents, Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers, had returned home yesterday from Los Angeles, and wanted to play a “concert for peace” at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, commonly known as “The Swamp.” The football stadium held over 80,000 fans, and Graham was a little concerned about security, given the split nature of Florida’s residents over possibly going to war. The college kids and cosmopolitan types in Miami were against it, but the Panhandle and central Florida residents were, to put it bluntly, redneck flag-waving Americans. Graham’s aides were nervous about a brawl breaking out between sides. Floridians weren’t always known for cool heads.

Graham and his wife, Adele, were sitting on the couch, watching Wheel of Fortune and sipping on red wine. Their children had come to stay with them, including their youngest, Gwen, a sophomore home from the University of North Carolina, where most of her professors had cancelled class until further notice. Bob thought Gwen would run for office one day, and hoped the country survived so she could. As Pat Sajak went to tell a contestant to spin the wheel, a breaking news graphic cut in. Graham’s head dropped. Can’t we go more than a couple days in a row without something bad happening?

“Good evening, I’m Tom Brokaw. We just left you a short while ago when the NBC Nightly News ended, but we have a special report out of Hamburg, West Germany tonight. The German counterterrorism group, GSG-9, has reportedly engaged a hostile force at the harbor. We have been unable to gain confirmation from the West Germany Ministry of Defense, but for what we do know, I have Garrick Utley on the phone from Hamburg. Garrick, what can you tell us?”

“Tom, we were turned in for the night at our hotel, which is near the harbor here. In the harbor is a dockyard, the Werftliegerunterstützung der Bundeswehr, or Dockyard Services for the Bundeswehr, the West German Army. About 45 minutes to an hour ago, we suddenly heard gunfire down by the water. Automatic weapons fire, with two distinct types of noise, and it went on for probably close to ten minutes. Myself and our cameraman and producer quickly got dressed and rushed downstairs, but by the time we did, the battle was over. We attempted to get closer to the harbor, but the streets had been blocked off by police, and one of them said that GSG-9 had stopped saboteurs from blowing up the dockyard.”

“Garrick, is there any word whatsoever on the identity of the attackers? Were they terrorists, soldiers, anti-war activists?”

“No, Tom, we don’t know at this time who the attackers were, but the suspicion amongst residents is that the Soviets were trying to scare West Germany from sticking with NATO. We’ve heard from sources in the Bundeswehr that the borders with East Germany have seen a greater influx of Soviet soldiers in recent days, but nothing to confirm that they have any responsibility for this attack…Tom, I’ve just been handed a note. The West German government is going to be holding a press briefing here in about two hours or so. The Minister of the Interior, Friedrich Zimmermann, is going to be boarding a plane shortly in Bonn and flying to Hamburg. This makes sense, in that GSG-9 reports to Minister Zimmermann. We’ll obviously be there for that, and will keep you posted on when that is.”

“Thank you, Garrick. That’s all for now, we may be back later this evening with the press conference in Hamburg depending on the timing. This is Tom Brokaw in New York, we return you now to your regularly scheduled program.”

The governor put down his wineglass. "Adele, honey, I think we all need to pack a suitcase. We may be leaving for Gainesville soon."

*****

February 10, 1984
Tallahassee, Florida

It'd been an uneasy night for the governor. His family was shaken by the news, and also by his directive to pack. It made the onset of war feel more certain, and the thought of that was terrifying. Graham was nervous about what he'd have to do, the orders he'd have to give, and it kept him from sleeping more than a few hours. He awoke before dawn and was driven to the office by a state trooper, with a chase car, because security was paramount now. After he arrived, he called down to the cafeteria and ordered a breakfast delivered to his office, then turned on the television while he reviewed evacuation orders that had been drafted. The plan called for three coach buses to be brought to the Capitol to transport the legislators and selected key aides to Gainesville. Graham included a key concession to ensure the compliance of everyone: spouses and children could drive to Gainesville. ID cards had been issued for the family members, and would be cross-checked upon arrival at Reitz Union. Each person would be booked a room at the Reitz Union hotel, a low-key facility built into the Reitz Student Union. It had beds for nearly 600 people in the rooms, while cots and air mattresses had been procured to accommodate families. If any overflow occurred, aides who were unmarried would be first given dorm rooms, and if those were full, the remainder would be provided cots set up in meeting rooms in the facility, with showers in the gym available. It was expected that this wouldn't be the most popular measure, but it sure beat being dead.

The University of Florida had received a substantial settlement for royalties the year over Gatorade, when Quaker Oats purchased Stokely Van Camp, the company licensed to produce the electrolyte-replacing beverage developed by researchers at UF's Institute for Agricultural Research. In this regard, and others, UF was outstandingly positioned to sustain the additional influx of people and help surrounding areas should the worst occur. As long as it was left untouched by the Soviets, UF had the ability to develop all manner of foodstuffs, and had, in fact, quietly reached out to Quaker Oats recently, asking for two million gallons worth of Gatorade in return for a reduction of the royalty payout. No corporation would resist the offer to retain cash, and so a deal was struck, and in the storage areas of the new Stephen O'Connell Center (four years old, but new in arena terms), pallet upon pallet of Gatorade was stored, for distribution as part of daily food handouts. It was expected that a bottle a day per person would help with the fact that food would be rationed. Two million gallons equated to 16 million bottles, 16 ounces per bottle. It was an astonishing amount, and even with the roughly 96,000 people in Gainesville (students included), it would last for nearly six months once distribution began.

By afternoon, the governor's office had distributed memos to all legislative offices detailing the schedule and recommending to those who were coming to Gainesville that they should have a large suitcase packed and ready to go in their office the next day. If they didn't, they would be responsible for obtaining clothing in Gainesville. It was also recommended that they have cash on hand. To help in this matter, as well as help other employees, Graham received assent from the Legislature to pay a "bonus" to any state employee who was designated for a position in reconstruction. The bills were mounting, and if war didn't come, taxes would have to be increased to cover the shortfall. The governor promised the legislators, in writing, that he would take any blame for a tax hike, but he wanted to be as prepared as possible.

While conducting his 3 pm status meeting, a loud, "Oh, shit!" was heard in the outer office. Everyone got up and went out, to be greeted by the sight of Graham's executive secretary shaking and the television in the corner showing burning wreckage at an airport. The civil defense head turned up the volume. "...sure why this happened yet, but we do know this was an American Air Force transport jet, bringing home dependents of military personnel stationed in the area. Dan, my knowledge is that this was a Lockheed Starlifter C-141, and it can hold 250-300 passengers in its passenger configuration. If so, this is a devastating catastrophe. The airport's fire department is here, trying to extinguish the fire, but as you can see from the pieces of the plane, it's unlikely anyone would have survived."

"Sander, has anyone from the U.S. Mission Office issued a statement? Any military commanders?"

"No, Dan, we haven't heard a thing, although I have to say, it's probably too early for anyone to have any comment or facts. All we know is that this plane exploded while preparing to leave the terminal and take off for the United States, and there's been substantial damage to that section of the terminal as well. There are likely more fatalities and injuries there as well, but we obviously can't get too close at the moment. It is just an awful moment, and coming on the heels of last night's attack in Hamburg, well, we've heard from Defense Ministry sources that they were Soviet Spetznaz, their special forces, much like our Green Berets, despite no formal identification offered by the Interior Minister who briefed the media in Hamburg hours after the dockyard attack. If that is indeed the case, if the Soviets were responsible, I don't see how war is avoidable. An attack by the Soviets on anything in West Germany is tantamount to a war declaration, and two attacks is something that can't be ignored by NATO. We may very well see panicked evacuations of border towns and cities within the next 24-48 hours, Dan. I hate to sound alarmist, but there's no way around what the facts are now."

"Sander, thank you, and we'll be back to you later. We've currently heard nothing from the White House, so we will be monitoring developments and break into programming as necessary. That was Sander Vanocur in Hamburg, and I'm Dan Rather in New York. We'll send you back to your regularly scheduled program right now. This has been a CBS News Special Report."

The governor looked at his aides. "Call the leadership. We need to have an expanded Emergency Powers Act passed immediately. We're going to initiate the evacuation to Gainesville tomorrow. This thing is going to happen...goddamn Soviets are too stupid to recognize what they're doing and where it's going to lead." He shook his head and walked back into his office to continue the (now much more important) status meeting.
 
Oh, the crap is hitting the fan now. On a side note, most of those journalists are likely doomed...

Funny, I didn't know Tom Petty (RIP) was from Gainesville; I could definitely see him and his band helping out in Florida postwar (did you mention him in light of his death OTL, or did you always plan on including him?). Another famous Floridian who could help out is Pat Boone (here's an amusing thought: send him and Petty on a morale-raising tour of Florida, if only because of their opposite political views (1)). Hope you mention the race in NASCAR; Graham could use some of NASCAR's employees, especially given that Daytona Beach (likely) survives postwar...

Graham is making good plans for the world after the nuclear war. Of course, he should remember the old adage: "No battle plan survives contact with the enemy."

I wonder how Jan and Manny (and the people close to them) are reacting to this (I'm sure we'll see their viewpoint in the next chapter)...

(1) Boone was a conservative Christian, while Petty was a rather famous liberal who supported Democratic candidates. Of course, a nuclear war somehow has a way of sweeping away those differences...
 
Oh, the crap is hitting the fan now. On a side note, most of those journalists are likely doomed...

Funny, I didn't know Tom Petty (RIP) was from Gainesville; I could definitely see him and his band helping out in Florida postwar (did you mention him in light of his death OTL, or did you always plan on including him?). Another famous Floridian who could help out is Pat Boone (here's an amusing thought: send him and Petty on a morale-raising tour of Florida, if only because of their opposite political views (1)). Hope you mention the race in NASCAR; Graham could use some of NASCAR's employees, especially given that Daytona Beach (likely) survives postwar...

Graham is making good plans for the world after the nuclear war. Of course, he should remember the old adage: "No battle plan survives contact with the enemy."

I wonder how Jan and Manny (and the people close to them) are reacting to this (I'm sure we'll see their viewpoint in the next chapter)...

(1) Boone was a conservative Christian, while Petty was a rather famous liberal who supported Democratic candidates. Of course, a nuclear war somehow has a way of sweeping away those differences...

Yeah, a lot of journalistic greats are going to die, but on the plus side, they will become legends, reporting up until the end. Although Vanocur, one of the all time greats, will be spared in Munich, so that's a bright spot.

I didn't have the Petty idea until this week. I fucking love Tom Petty, and the past two years has been hard losing so many great artists I never saw in person. Bowie, Prince, Petty, Bennington....just been brutal. Anyways, I've known for a long, long time he's from Gainesville, and I wanted to save him in this universe, because so many people should have the benefit of hearing Tom Petty.

Pat Boone is a crime against music and, as such, is free to die in a (nuclear) fire. XD

The Daytona 500 is scheduled for after the Exchange, but I imagine NASCAR has plenty of fuel stored there that can be used post-Exchange. However, and I will be reviewing those weather maps very closely, the Orlando fallout could be devastating and deadly to Daytona. NNE winds would drop the worst of it on Daytona, winds blowing nearly straight east will spare it. It really is incredible how much wind can affect matters so very much.
 
@Chipperback , didn't NASCAR try to race on the 19th, only to be convinced otherwise by the feds when war broke out?

I'll answer, since I got curious about this and looked up the relevant part of Flatwater. Post 636 here is relevant: https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...ect-and-survive-middle-america.211130/page-32

The relevant parts are here:

"Sunday February 12, 1984 -- NASCAR racing began at Daytona with the exhibition 50-mile 20-lap Busch Clash. Neil Bonnett won the all-star event, composed of pole position and race winners from the previous season.

...
Thursday February 16, 1984 -- Twin 125-mile qualifying races at Daytona are run in front of the largest crowd in history of the qualifying races which rivaled a Daytona 500 race crowd. Prior to the races there was a massive anti-Soviet demonstration outside of the Speedway in protest to the Soviet ultimatum to NATO.

"Today by racing, were going to send them Russians a message that they can kiss our American asses." -- NASCAR team owner Junior Johnson.
Friday February 17, 1984 -- ...

In a meeting Friday night, NASCAR's teams voted to postponed the Goody's 300 and the Daytona 500. Most of the Winston Cup teams stayed in Daytona and helped with Emergency Management Services. There are rumors that many of these groups of teams have survived the initial exchange and set up a refugee center in the Flagler Beach, Florida area..."
 
NASCAR fuel wouldn't be much of a help, it was leaded until about a decade ago, IIRC.

Yes, but as a kid in the 80s, I remember the question would be at the gas station, "Regular or unleaded?" That's all the Shell station on the corner by us had until...1989-90. A lot of people then still had old cars that used leaded gasoline, so I don't think it's a stretch to say that fuel would have use.

Also, a big thanks to @Apollo 20 for finding that reference in @Chipperback's story. I guess those rumors will have to get fleshed out....
 
Yes, but as a kid in the 80s, I remember the question would be at the gas station, "Regular or unleaded?" That's all the Shell station on the corner by us had until...1989-90. A lot of people then still had old cars that used leaded gasoline, so I don't think it's a stretch to say that fuel would have use.

Also, a big thanks to @Apollo 20 for finding that reference in @Chipperback's story. I guess those rumors will have to get fleshed out....
Yes, and these older cars do not have electronic parts, so they should do better with EMP.
 
Yes, and these older cars do not have electronic parts, so they should do better with EMP.

HEMP is not really as major a threat as is often assumed. It also has to be remembered that electronics of cars are essentially within a Farraday Cage, therefore are pretty safe from any electrical surge.
 
Just thought of something--according to the Protect and Survive chronological timeline, on February 11th, 1984, Operation Monroe Doctrine is started in the Gulf and Caribbean; hope we find out more about it (and I bet Manny's drug flights are being affected by the FAA detour around Cuba), and the evacuation of the Florida state government is starting...

Waiting for more, and hope Manny gets arrested before the war breaks out...

Also, and thinking about this, the scene with Antonio being taken for a one-way boat ride reminds me of this famous case that occurred in nearby West Palm Beach in 1955:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curtis_Chillingworth

To wit, he was a Circuit Court judge in West Palm Beach who, along with his wife, was kidnapped and presumed to have been taken to a boat and dumped in the sea (without being shot, IIRC). The scheme was masterminded by another crooked judge in West Palm Beach who feared the victim might have him disbarred. Was that an inspiration, wolverinethad?

Waiting for more, of course...
 
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Chapter 26
Chapter 26
February 10, 1984
Miami, Florida

Jan Klima was in Luis Cárdenas' room at Jackson Memorial, keeping the watch. Luis had been in and out, the pain medication and loss of blood suffered prior to the operation keeping him unconscious a lot. He'd been awake enough for Jan to know that he was okay, but it was still worrying. The last four days had been a blur, checking on Luis, comforting his parents, talking to the coroner and the other task force members. The only bit of evidence they'd found worthwhile was that the rifle in the locked case was the one used to kill Captain Grimes, so that part of the case was now, as far as Miami PD was concerned, closed. They would be happy to have that off the front pages and the local news, even though the story was increasingly being crowded out by events overseas. Klima and Cárdenas were going to both be decorated in a ceremony as soon as Luis could leave the hospital, which looked like another week or so.

Klima went to the cafeteria to get some dinner, finally, as it looked like Luis was going to be out for a while. He purchased a sandwich and some matzo ball soup, taking a seat in the dining room. The TV was on and there was a great fire on the screen....the chryon read....Munich? Klima picked up his tray and moved closer, then reached up and turned up the volume so he could listen.

"You're watching live coverage of the ongoing incident at Munich International Airport in West Germany, where a massive explosion has set a United States Air Force C-141 Starlifter on fire, with what we believe to be 250 dependents of Air Force personnel on board. There's also been substantial damage to the section of the international terminal, as the airplane was just beginning to pull away from the jetway when the explosion occurred. CNN's Peter Arnett is on the scene now, can you tell us what you've learned, Peter?

"Bernard, right now, there are numerous fire engines and firefighters on scene, including a number of USAF personnel, frantically trying to control this blaze and save anyone that can be rescued. We still do not know what caused this explosion, but a number of military personnel that I've spoken to, both American and West German, believe this is linked to the attack on the dockyard in Hamburg last night. Those attackers, we learned a little while ago, had Soviet bloc weapons on them. The feeling is, if this is a coincidence, it's the damndest one anyone has ever seen."

"Peter, what's the security status inside West Germany right now? Have they closed borders, moved troops, anything like that?"

"Nobody has made any official announcements or gone on the record, but I would suspect that the alert status has gone up around the country. If anything comes out of this that points to Soviet involvement, then President Reagan will probably activate REFORGER in the morning. For those who aren't familiar with the term, that means..."

"Return of Forces to Germany, yeah, we got it, Peter," Klima muttered to himself. As Shaw and Arnett continued their discussion on the TV, Jan went inside his head. REFORGER was a five-seven day effort. If the Soviets wanted to really fuck us, they'd come over tomorrow before we could get anyone across the ocean. If Ronnie initiates REFORGER, there's no way we're avoiding war. We need to find Rivera fast, we're running out of time and he's just vanished off our radar, and our best lead is dead. Dammit, dammit, dammit! Klima finished his food and decided to head back to the office. It was a Friday night, but with his family gone, he might as well put it to use by finding Florida's second biggest threat.

*****

Gainesville, Florida


Everyone was barely settling in to their new surroundings when word of the Munich airport explosion began spreading. Televisions and radios were turned on, while people watched and listened in stunned silence. The civil defense director was particularly concerned. Alaska's air traffic had been shut down because of an airplane shootdown in Bulgaria, but what was the practice for airport bombs? Should they request FAA shutdown of Florida air traffic, or would that clog roads badly enough that it would be counterproductive? Major General Ensslin, meanwhile, decided to assign Guardsmen to patrolling major airports around the state to ensure security of flights. The Governor had two conference rooms, adjoining, set aside for executive use. One would be a secure room, with hotel employees adding soundproofing material and a combination lock, and the other would be a standard working room. They were in the first of the rooms right now, with Governor Graham, the director of the Florida State Prison, and the Attorney General, James Smith, conducting a meeting about how to handle prisoner issues going forward.

The prison's director wanted to expedite the scheduled executions of a number of death row inmates, seven which were set to go forth this year. Three of those were set for April, and the rest staggered out. The question of appeals and due process was involved, hence AG Smith being present. An acceleration was risky, especially if war didn't come. Florida could face years of costly litigation, potential fines, and more, all of which the Governor wanted to avoid. At the same time, he understood that letting dangerous people out into a post-nuclear war environment was a terrifying prospect. The prison was located in a remote town called Raiford, halfway between Gainesville and Jacksonville. It was expected to remain safe from any attacks or fallout, but there was risk involved, especially considering that absenteeism might go up when war broke out.

After discussing the numerous pros and cons, Graham agreed to ask the legislature to meet the next day and pass a bill to modify the capital punishment statute. As war had not officially broken out, not all of his emergency powers were in effect. The bill would legalize the use of firing squad as a method of execution, and, should war break out, death row would be summarily cleared of its residents. Its legality from a federal standpoint might be dubious, and Graham was somewhat troubled by the thought, but he recognized the need. Safety would be difficult enough to maintain, and the state didn't need the drain on resources. In conjunction with this, though, Graham decided it would also be best to make space in other areas. Nonviolent offenders serving sentences for petty crimes would have their sentences commuted, effective 6 am Sunday morning. This mainly meant those serving sentences for minor drug possession, along with repeat shoplifters and the sort. They would receive a short "briefing," informing them of the reason for the commutation, and that they were going to be dispatched to work on completing fallout shelters in the southern half of the state. Work, receive food, decent sleeping quarters, and have a chance to survive if the sirens went off. Refuse and be left in the middle of the Everglades to make your own way.

Not a single man refused the work commutation.

*****

Miramar, Florida

Manny Rivera was restless. Word had gotten to him that his Cuban commando had been killed by the police on the 8th, and the news had reported on the seizure of his distribution facility. As was to be expected, he became more concerned for his security. Rivera decided that hedges were needed. He sent men out with pickup trucks to purchase as many hedges as they could find to hide the fence from the road. The driveway was obscured by the removal of grass in front that delineated it, and the gate was pushed back with an inner fence quickly installed. Manny was burning through cash, but based on the news, all that would matter was the gold he had, because cash would be worthless. If not, he had a stash of cocaine and heroin that he could sell off to make some quick cash. As it were, he'd pulled in additional money selling most of what he'd brought back from Panama on his last flight. His dealers were instructed to lay low, and his muscle was all pulled in to the Miramar property.

All told, Rivera had a forty-man platoon now, plus Amber and his two ex-CIA advisers. The girl was bright enough not to say anything. She knew what Manny did, had figured it out, but, as so many other young girls do, she was so in love that she put it all aside. She was frightened over war breaking out, but felt safe and protected. A typical Florida country girl, she had grown up around guns and wasn't afraid of them. She'd gone to "The U" for excitement, leaving the Panhandle for the bright lights of Miami, and hadn't regretted it. She'd been driven to classes since coming out here, which was a nice change, and picked up in the evenings when she was done. Weekends were spent watching TV, learning new recipes (she wanted to become good at making Cuban for her lover) or tanning outside when the weather was nice. She missed the clubs, the dancing, and all the other fun of being a college coed, but it wasn't a bad time, especially since classes had been cancelled with increasingly frequency since that plane was shot down.

If there was going to be a war, Manny Rivera had his army ready for combat.
 
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