A teaser for my new TL that I'm developing. This is a spin-off detailing a plausible axis "victory". And by victory I mean the recognition of de-facto borders and the avoidance of total defeat. PODs are 1895 and 1905. Map dates are 1910, 1914, 1919, 1925, 1939, and mid-1940's (some point between 1943 and 1946).
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Out of curiosity, what occurred within East Asia from 1910 to ~1940? I'm not expecting anything particularly specific.
Map of the Xin Dynasty of China, founded by Wang Mang in 9 CE after creating a cult of personality and overthrowing the last emperor of the ailing Han Dynasty. Wang's policies of the abolition of slavery, the successful institution of the well-field system, and the liberation of free farmers among other measures which aided the peasantry, helped build up a great agricultural base in China which was used to free up labour for state projects and military actions. Mostly, however, the military policy stayed at home, and China became rather insular with the exception of the campaign against the Buyeo invasion of Goguryeo which resulted in a long war with the Baekje Kingdom, which conquered Goguryeo's remnants in the south along with Gaya and Silla; as well as the campaign of the reconquest of Dai Viet.
Wang Mang's policies towards foreign states is less haughty than OTL, but when it is it is backed up by military force. More successful implementation of agricultural reform and the putting down of nobility-led rebellions help him solidify power. His sons further consolidate the Xin empire and build up its defenses on its borders, as well as its farming and its culture at home. The dynasty lasts, through several ups and downs, until peasant rebellions topple the state after a series of weak emperors fail to handle growing problems. In 223 Xin finally collapses completely into a series of smaller states each trying to conquer the others.
Map of the Xin Dynasty at the height of its power in 140 CE
Yellow represents the completed sections of the Great Wall, green represents the Imperial Commanderies.
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IOTL, given that Wang Mang's diplomatic policies were disastrous, it would be virtually impossible for the situation to be significantly better if he actually decided to declare war in this scenario. The Han had been at war with the Xiongnu since 133 BC, and given that China was forced to mobilize around 300,000 troops from AD 10-11 in order to prevent a major invasion, it would have been essentially suicidal for the Han to expend troops just to fight Goguryeo. A major war in the northeast would only have incentivized the Xiongnu to increase their raids, while Goguryeo would have responded by allying with the Okjeo, Yemaek, and Mahan, in addition to potentially coordinating their attacks with the Xianbei and Xiongnu, given the geopolitics at the time. Additionally, Buyeo was in the process of deteriorating at this time, as it had no major nomadic allies (forcing it to grudgingly rely on China decades later), and failed to dislodge Goguryeo's position despite invading it in 6 BC and AD 13, after which its ruler was killed in AD 22 due to a counter-invasion by Goguryeo. Even if Buyeo had managed to recapture most of the territory that Goguryeo had established after its secession, it would have claimed a much larger share of territory in Southern Manchuria (mostly in the southeast, which was inhospitable and lacked major resources), as opposed to losing a significant amount of its territory further north.
Even after the Eastern Han regrouped and strengthened its government after AD 25, and gradually managed to recover its territories in the Western Regions, Goguryeo continued to build up its military in order to aggressively pressure the Han's commanderies within the peninsula. In particular, it not only managed to temporarily conquer Lelang twice in AD 32 and 37, but also invaded Lelang (in concert with allies) numerous times during Taejo's reign (r. 53-121?), forcing the Han to request assistance from Buyeo in the latter.
Baekje (which technically did not exist at the time, would also have been referred to as "Wirye" after its capital) also would have been unable to significantly expand its territory, as Mahan, Jinhan, and Byeonhan all continued to exert significant influence until the late 3rd-early 4th centuries. For reference, most of the statelets (at least 54 in Mahan) were systematically recorded when the Cao Wei (with Buyeo) invaded Goguryeo from 244-5, two centuries after Wang Mang's reign, and toured most of the peninsula. Specifically, Baekje did not consolidate its hold on the Han River Valley until Goi's reign (r. 234-86), and did not conquer the remaining Mahan statelets until Geunchogo's reign (r. 346-75), while Gaya was never fully consolidated, as power was divided among several factions within major cities, and Silla was not fully consolidated until the early 5th century or so.
EDIT: All of the states in what is now Manchuria/Korea had continued to pay tribute to China (in order to establish stable trading relations) at least since Gojoseon was conquered in 108 BC. As a result, China would not have invaded what became Manchuria/Korea unless it had been directly provoked, which would have been essentially unthinkable for the northeastern states if China somehow managed to avoid major turmoil after Wang Mang's death, as the transition from the Xin to the Eastern Han would have been butterflied.