Yamaguchi doesn't go down with Hiryū and survives

[Belisarius II]

Hiryu's hanger looks to have been repairable, but the others probably not. The first step to replacing a destroyed hanger would be to cut off and remove the debris, which should be able to be done pierside. At some point after that they'd need to go into drydock.

So, they need to go to a drydock.

We have no idea what state the hulls or engine spaces of the carriers would be in, other than the likelihood of restoration to service being Hiryu, then Akagi, then Kaga, then Soryu.

No ship could burn like that and suffer massive internal explosions and not have serious hull damage. Hiryu was left burning from the destroyed bow to stern as shown in the last photo taken of her just before she sank.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Midway#/media/File:Japanese_aircraft_carrier_Hiryu_adrift_and_burning_on_5_June_1942_(NH_73065).jpg

Franklin was not hit by a kamikaze.

You are correct.

I don't disgree, but in the late war period the primary impediment to the USN's speedy advance the USN's own faulty doctrinal assumptions, and political squabbling in Washington, not the Japanese. As such, the impact of Midway survivors is not so much in combat as in US planning.

The twin advance was a natural compromise dictated by the course of events. When the Japanese threatened Australia and moved into the Solomon Islands the South Pacific drive became almost unavoidable. The Central Pacific Drive was also the obvious route to the Mariana Islands. What strategy would you suggest?

 

[Sargon]

What it seems then is that Yamaguchi can survive, and maybe even Hiryū as well (although not entirely sure about the viability of that), however there's division about if Akagi would or not, and even if she did, might not be worth repairing.

Even just Yamaguchi surviving could have some limited effects by itself. If Hiryū somehow manages it back, it's a question of how long it takes to repair her, and if there's a suitable airgroup for her to embark. This has the potential to somewhat affect matters later, the question being what changes from OTL may happen, which may only end up being not that significant or just a little more so.

Kaga and Sōryū are definitely gone it seems though.

IJN should really have done full deck conversions of Hyūga and Ise, not that it would have helped much. As for Shinano, a lot of resources for nothing in the end.


Sargon