Yamaguchi doesn't go down with Hiryū and survives

[Sargon]

I did consider putting this in the ASB section given Yamaguchi's determination to go down with Hiryū, the fact there are two elements to this scenario, the second requires two changes which is pushing it. Anyway, if necessary we can ask it to be moved but it's not completely out of the realms of possibility for either to happen.

Right then:

Scenario 1: Yamaguchi doesn't go down with Hiryū. Something plausible happens to make sure he doesn't. Maybe he gets knocked out by wreckage or something leaving him unable to say anything for some time and his men take him with them when evacuating. Whatever the reason, he survives.

Scenario 2: Yamaguchi survives, but Nagumo doesn't for some reason. Nagumo, despite his decision making at Midway still went on to command CV forces during the Guadalcanal campaign. The difficulty with this one is having two changes happen. I guess flying bits of wreckage might need to have a busy day in that case.

We probably don't expect that much to change. Japan still loses the war, but we're more interested in what smaller things could have gone somewhat differently for better or worse.


Sargon

 

[Glenn239]

Easy.

Hiryu is bombed as historical on the afternoon of 4 June, but instead of the historical damage control decisions, someone on the bridge has an idea, and the carrier retreats from the battle full astern. With the wind blowing over the deck from astern, the flames from the bomb hits forward are pushed harmlessly to sea over the bow. This protects the engineering spaces, avgas and magazines from the fires, and the damage control teams manage to bring the fires under control. Hiryu rejoins the Main Body with Yamaguch's flag flying aboard the last carrier, Nagumo reduced to a passenger aboard a light cruiser.

Hiryu's survival after Yamaguchi's epic carrier duel on the afternoon of the 4th makes decisions in Tokyo after the battle easy. Nagumo is promoted to a desk position in Toyko while Yamaguchi takes command of the newly formed 3rd Fleet carrier force. Hiryu is repaired by early July, and Yamaguchi sails with her as his flagship with Zuikaku, Shokaku, and Ryujo for the Battle of the Eastern Solomons....

 

[CV12Hornet]

I would say Hiryu being repaired by July is a tad optimistic, based on the turnaround time on Shokaku after Coral Sea. Shokaku’s actual repairs didn’t take very long, but I’ve been unable to find out why she sat pierside for a month before going into drydock - perhaps the same lack of urgency that kept Zuikaku out of the Midway operation? Or maybe most of the repairs were conducted pierside - and as such am being conservative with how long Hiryu spends in similar condition. Further, Hiryu was more heavily damaged than Shokaku, and the Japanese are just getting out of a major shortage of new planes, and they need to train up a new air group for Hiryu on top of training up Hiyo and Junyo’s airgroups, and work up the ship after repairs, and then there’s the fact that Watchtower caught the Japanese right as they’d finished rejiggering their doctrine and reorganizing their carrier force, that’s the main reason Eastern Solomons caught half the Japanese carrier fleet in refit and training.

The point being, I have my doubts Hiryu would be ready for combat by Eastern Solomons, though I love the idea for keeping her afloat and getting Yamaguchi in charge - though given the timing I noted above, there’s a good chance the Japanese will have to fly Yamaguchi out to his new command along with the adjusted doctrine and formations, as the Japanese wound up having to do for Eastern Solomons.

 

[Marshmallow Waffles]

As for scenario 2, I have an idea, just not sure how plausible it is:
Say the B-26 that tried to suicide into Akagi's bridge hit. This probably kills Nagumo and his staff. As to what happens to the Akagi after this point is up for debate, I'm not sure if she survives or not.
The rest of the battle continues relatively normal, perhaps with Hiryū taking Akagi's place, perhaps Best bombs the Akagi anyway.
Then, Yamaguchi, realizing that he is one of the last remaining experienced carrier admirals the Japanese have, chooses instead to survive. Or maybe he gets hit by stray debris, knocked unconscious, and is evacuated by his men before he can choose to stay aboard.
Like I said, I'm not sure on plausibility, just an idea that I thought of, but haven't really considered fully.

 

[CV12Hornet]

Yamaguchi getting knocked out is pretty plausible, the bomb hits blew one of the elevators out of its well so hard it hit the island.

 

[mack8]

Does the Hiryu still have to be sunk in the scenario proposed, or it's allowed for it to survive? I have an easy scenario for Hiryu's survival too (and even Akagi's), Best misses Akagi, then it and Hiryu proceed to attack the US CVs, with various outcomes resulting from here as one desires.

Anyway, imo it's highly likely that if Yamaguchi survives (and not wounded too badly if it is infered he will be wounded in the attack), he will be made commander of the carrier force in July, effectively taking Ozawa's place. I am quite certain they kept Nagumo as part of the cover-up of the defeat, other IJN commanders have been dismissed after less disastruous battles.

With Yamaguchi leading the Kido Butai, the USN might be in for an even harder time at Guadalcanal, this depending whether Hiryu survives too (and Akagi in my scenario).
Depending how the events flow from here, i expect Yamaguchi to become IJN's commander after either Yamamoto being killed as OTL( highly unlikely as the chain of events could be quite different to still allow for such a fluke), or more likely after Yamamoto likely resigns in 1944 after the tide turns.

Does Tomeo Kaku survives as well? With Yamaguchi and Kaku alive (Kaku likely commanding a CarDiv), who knows what surprises they might spring on the americans even in 1944.

 

[mack8]

I would say Hiryu being repaired by July is a tad optimistic, based on the turnaround time on Shokaku after Coral Sea. Shokaku’s actual repairs didn’t take very long, but I’ve been unable to find out why she sat pierside for a month before going into drydock - perhaps the same lack of urgency that kept Zuikaku out of the Midway operation? Or maybe most of the repairs were conducted pierside - and as such am being conservative with how long Hiryu spends in similar condition. Further, Hiryu was more heavily damaged than Shokaku, and the Japanese are just getting out of a major shortage of new planes, and they need to train up a new air group for Hiryu on top of training up Hiyo and Junyo’s airgroups, and work up the ship after repairs, and then there’s the fact that Watchtower caught the Japanese right as they’d finished rejiggering their doctrine and reorganizing their carrier force, that’s the main reason Eastern Solomons caught half the Japanese carrier fleet in refit and training.

The point being, I have my doubts Hiryu would be ready for combat by Eastern Solomons, though I love the idea for keeping her afloat and getting Yamaguchi in charge - though given the timing I noted above, there’s a good chance the Japanese will have to fly Yamaguchi out to his new command along with the adjusted doctrine and formations, as the Japanese wound up having to do for Eastern Solomons.

In this scenario, perhaps at least for Santa Cruz? Battle-scarred warriors Hiryu and Yamaguchi coming down for revenge against their nemesis, that's stuff for legends being born. Enterprise might not survive this time.

As to the planes, they might scrounge from here and there, recall Hiyo's engines broke down so she was out of battle, her planes 16 Zeros and 17 Vals would be most welcome to fill Hiryu. Though it's likely as the most recent carrier Hiyo is left home and her planes and pilots used to fill Hiryu. Also after the OTL Midway battle, many surviving carrier pilots were send to land based groups, so if Hiryu survives they will be used to fill her airgroup first. She will probably carry 21 A6M, 18 D3A and 18 B5Ns. And if she survives at least some of her planes could have survived too.


Personally, i see Hiryu together with Shokaku and Zuikaku in one group, and Junyo and Zuiho in the other.

If we let Akagi live too, things could be even more interesting/legendary/epic.

 

[CV12Hornet]

In this scenario, perhaps at least for Santa Cruz? Battle-scarred warriors Hiryu and Yamaguchi coming down for revenge against their nemesis, that's stuff for legends being born. Enterprise might not survive this time.

As to the planes, they might scrounge from here and there, recall Hiyo's engines broke down so she was out of battle, her planes 16 Zeros and 17 Vals would be most welcome to fill Hiryu. Though it's likely as the most recent carrier Hiyo is left home and her planes and pilots used to fill Hiryu. Also after the OTL Midway battle, many surviving carrier pilots were send to land based groups, so if Hiryu survives they will be used to fill her airgroup first. She will probably carry 21 A6M, 18 D3A and 18 B5Ns. And if she survives at least some of her planes ould have survived too.

Personally, i see Hiryu together with Shokaku and Zuikaku in one group, and Junyo and Zuiho in the other.

I agree with pretty much all of this. Getting Hiryu fixed in time for Santa Cruz is a lot more plausible.

 

[Marshmallow Waffles]

In this scenario, perhaps at least for Santa Cruz? Battle-scarred warriors Hiryu and Yamaguchi coming down for revenge against their nemesis, that's stuff for legends being born. Enterprise might not survive this time.

In that scenario, she may not even be ready for Santa Cruz, or it'd be a tight squeeze. She was basically a floating wreck OTL after the four bomb hits. Her bow effectively ceased to exist. And if the Japanese display the same lack of urgency they did before Midway, or the same unwillingness to use all their assets, then she may very well not be ready.

As to the planes, they might scrounge from here and there, recall Hiyo's engines broke down so she was out of battle, her planes 16 Zeros and 17 Vals would be most welcome to fill Hiryu. Though it's likely as the most recent carrier Hiyo is left home and her planes and pilots used to fill Hiryu. Also after the OTL Midway battle, many surviving carrier pilots were send to land based groups, so if Hiryu survives they will be used to fill her airgroup first. She will probably carry 21 A6M, 18 D3A and 18 B5Ns. And if she survives at least some of her planes ould have survived too.


Personally, i see Hiryu together with Shokaku and Zuikaku in one group, and Junyo and Zuiho in the other.

If she can be made ready for Santa Cruz, then I absolutely agree with the rest of this, though I'm still not sure she will be.

 

[mack8]

Easy.

Hiryu is bombed as historical on the afternoon of 4 June, but instead of the historical damage control decisions, someone on the bridge has an idea, and the carrier retreats from the battle full astern. With the wind blowing over the deck from astern, the flames from the bomb hits forward are pushed harmlessly to sea over the bow. This protects the engineering spaces, avgas and magazines from the fires, and the damage control teams manage to bring the fires under control. Hiryu rejoins the Main Body with Yamaguch's flag flying aboard the last carrier, Nagumo reduced to a passenger aboard a light cruiser.

Hiryu's survival after Yamaguchi's epic carrier duel on the afternoon of the 4th makes decisions in Tokyo after the battle easy. Nagumo is promoted to a desk position in Toyko while Yamaguchi takes command of the newly formed 3rd Fleet carrier force. Hiryu is repaired by early July, and Yamaguchi sails with her as his flagship with Zuikaku, Shokaku, and Ryujo for the Battle of the Eastern Solomons....

To make even more sure of Hiryu and Yamaguchi surviving, how about him and Kaku deciding to launch their last strike at 16.30 as planned and not postpone it. That way there will be 18-19 less armed and fuelled planes (9-10 A6M, 4 D3A with 250kg bombs, 5 B5N with their deadly torpedoes intended for the last strike) in the hangars at 17.00, so there is significantly less damage/fires from exploding planes/ ordnance.

The strike can't do much aginst the intact TF16, and the strike planes will probably be wiped out by the massive CAP if they do find it, so they are better off not finding it and expending their ordnance on the now derelict Yorktown. And hell if they are really lucky and Hiryu is not burning so badly, maybe some of the strike planes might get to land on the deck, which was undamaged from the island backward.

Probably diverting too much from the OP, but with Hiryu surviving, might the IJN commanders get a bit bolder and try to get Akagi underway/under tow as well once the fires have died down?

 

[jlckansas]

Having Yamaguchi survive is easy if the Captain of the Hiryu takes responsibility for the ship and convinces him that they don't know if Nagumo survived the Akagi, then tell him that he needs to take charge of the remaining fleet. Even if the Hiryu sinks he would be off of the ship and in a position for Yammamoto to communicate with him and remind him he was not the one in charge and Japan needs him.

 

[Marshmallow Waffles]

To make even more sure of Hiryu and Yamaguchi surviving, how about him and Kaku deciding to launch their last strike at 16.30 as planned and not postpone it. That way there will be 18-19 less armed and fuelled planes (9-10 A6M, 4 D3A with 250kg bombs, 5 B5N with their deadly torpedoes intended for the last strike) in the hangars at 17.00, so there is significantly less damage/fires from exploding planes/ ordnance.

The strike can't do much aginst the intact TF16, and the strike planes will probably be wiped out by the massive CAP if they do find it, so they are better off not finding it and expending their ordnance on the now derelict Yorktown. And hell if they are really lucky and Hiryu is not burning so badly, maybe some of the strike planes might get to land on the deck, which was undamaged from the island backward.

They'll almost certainly all be destroyed. Agreed that they're best off missing everything. Not sure Hiryū, with no front end, can actually land on it, considering the significant chance they overshoot and fall into the hole now in her deck.

Probably diverting too much from the OP, but with Hiryu surviving, might the IJN commanders get a bit bolder and try to get Akagi underway/under tow as well once the fires have died down?

If they do, they're going to have a very annoyed Task Force 16 and Midway Island that would not be happy to see the Akagi afloat. And she won't be able to dodge any of the ordinance thrown her way. Though, you probably save Mikuma since the Americans are going to be far more focused on sinking the carrier.

 

[mack8]

I do agree that Akagi's survival chances are slim if she can't get away under her own power and high speed by the morning of the 5th, with TF16 hunting around. She not only needs to somehow have power restored, but also straighten her rudder to be able to have a chance of getting away.

So Ironically her chances would have been much improved if the second bomb did indeed hit the aft flight deck like the old accounts say, and not near miss it and detonate in the water next to the rudder. Such are the fortunes of war.

 

[Sekhmet_D]

Say the B-26 that tried to suicide into Akagi's bridge hit. This probably kills Nagumo and his staff. As to what happens to the Akagi after this point is up for debate, I'm not sure if she survives or not.

Given that a single bomb hit was enough to turn Akagi into a blazing wreck IOTL, a Marauder colliding with her would probably send her to the bottom even faster.

 

[Glenn239]

To make even more sure of Hiryu and Yamaguchi surviving, how about him and Kaku deciding to launch their last strike at 16.30 as planned and not postpone it. That way there will be 18-19 less armed and fuelled planes (9-10 A6M, 4 D3A with 250kg bombs, 5 B5N with their deadly torpedoes intended for the last strike) in the hangars at 17.00, so there is significantly less damage/fires from exploding planes/ ordnance.

Agreed it makes sense as a POD that the strike is launched, but on the armed aircraft aboard Hiryu, I've always wondered about how much they were a factor to the loss of the ship. The bomb hits were all well forward of the bridge, far forward of any armed and fueled dive and torpedo bombers. It really could only be later as fires spread down the hangers that they could have cooked off?

Probably diverting too much from the OP, but with Hiryu surviving, might the IJN commanders get a bit bolder and try to get Akagi underway/under tow as well once the fires have died down?

IMO, the IJN gave up on Akagi, Hiryu and even Kaga too quickly at Midway. Japanese surface forces could have pursued Spruance through the night of the 4th-5th. They would not catch him, of course, and would have faced dive bomber attacks the next day. But Spruance would have been force well to the east, far beyond strike range of the crippled IJN carriers. With their fires dying down these could have been reboarded and, if the engineering spaces were intact, mobility might have been restored. (Midway would be kept quiet through the day by surface bombardment forces).

 

[Sekhmet_D]

With Yamaguchi leading the Kido Butai, the USN might be in for an even harder time at Guadalcanal, this depending whether Hiryu survives too (and Akagi in my scenario).
Depending how the events flow from here, i expect Yamaguchi to become IJN's commander after either Yamamoto being killed as OTL( highly unlikely as the chain of events could be quite different to still allow for such a fluke), or more likely after Yamamoto likely resigns in 1944 after the tide turns.

It always surprises me that Nobutake Kondo did not succeed Yamamoto as Combined Fleet commander given his position in the hierarchy, rather than Koga and Toyoda who pretty much came out of nowhere.

 

[Sekhmet_D]

IMO, the IJN gave up on Akagi, Hiryu and even Kaga too quickly at Midway. Japanese surface forces could have pursued Spruance through the night of the 4th-5th. They would not catch him, of course, and would have faced dive bomber attacks the next day. But Spruance would have been force well to the east, far beyond strike range of the crippled IJN carriers. With their fires dying down these could have been reboarded and, if the engineering spaces were intact, mobility might have been restored. (Midway would be kept quiet through the day by surface bombardment forces).

Have you read the eyewitness accounts of what Kaga looked like after she was hit? Practically everything above the waterline abaft of the island was gone. She was a constructive total loss by any shipyard's standards. Akagi and Soryu probably wouldn't have been in any better shape.

 

[CV12Hornet]

Soryu was dead in the water, her steamlines having been shattered and most of her boilers knocked out. Eyewitnesses saw steam venting from her hull and an attempt to rig emergency steering shows that her steering was out, too, and a few late survivors that managed to get out of the engineering spaces reported a. a list and b. that she was lower in the water than normal. While she wasn't in any danger of sinking anytime soon, she was plainly unsalvageable, and might have sunk eventually on her own.

Akagi suffered steering damage from the near-miss aft, and all attempts to fix it were utter failures. So while Akagi could move, she was unsteerable, and thus unsalvageable. By 1450, her propulsion was dead. Further, reading on the progress of the fires, by 1500 the fires were happily gobbling up decks below the lower hanger deck, and as of 1900 they were still not dying down, unlike on Kaga and Soryu. Considering they continued on until morning, and were still going as of her scuttling, it's very likely her propulsion was wrecked by the fires, thus making her unsalvageable.

Ironically, despite Sekhmet's comments Kaga was the most salvageable of the three carriers, in that her propulsion remained intact for much of the afternoon. By her scuttling the fires were dying down - and yet, "most salvageable" clearly qualifies as a very low bar, because Shattered Sword makes a strong case for her being a constructive total loss that would not have been worth repairing even if she'd been saved.

@Glenn239's plan also contains one other fatal flaw: Nagumo didn't have enough destroyers to do what he suggests and keep the carriers afloat. As of 1800 ten of his destroyers eleven destroyers were busy babysitting the wrecked or damaged carriers. Those destroyers, further, were scattered across hundreds of square miles of ocean, and in danger themselves from American submarines, aircraft, and surface ships (or so Nagumo thought). And Nagumo was unwilling to leave the wrecks unguarded; even if he did, Hiryu would've continued sucking up a third of his destroyer force, his best search assets. The best thing he could do to pursue the Americans with his surface units was to scuttle the wrecked carriers ASAP.

 

[rob2001]

Even if Hiryu survived and Yamaguchi had lived, I just don't see ship being ready by July. Not because of the damage, but she would have totally rebuild her air group. I mean Yamaguchi threw pretty much every aircraft he had at the Yorktown, and lost both his air group commander and the other senior pilot, and that would probably come after the Zuikaku finished rebuilding it's air group.

 

[mack8]

Agreed it makes sense as a POD that the strike is launched, but on the armed aircraft aboard Hiryu, I've always wondered about how much they were a factor to the loss of the ship. The bomb hits were all well forward of the bridge, far forward of any armed and fueled dive and torpedo bombers. It really could only be later as fires spread down the hangers that they could have cooked off?



IMO, the IJN gave up on Akagi, Hiryu and even Kaga too quickly at Midway. Japanese surface forces could have pursued Spruance through the night of the 4th-5th. They would not catch him, of course, and would have faced dive bomber attacks the next day. But Spruance would have been force well to the east, far beyond strike range of the crippled IJN carriers. With their fires dying down these could have been reboarded and, if the engineering spaces were intact, mobility might have been restored. (Midway would be kept quiet through the day by surface bombardment forces).

As i understand, it may be that the 19 Zeros still on board were in the forward hangar, most or all fuelled and armed. 9 of them were slated for the dusk strike. So possibly the bombs detonated the fuelled Zeros creating a nasty gasoline fire, which then spread backwards as Hiryu was still doing 28kts after the hits to evade B-17 attacks. The fires then reached the armed and fueled B5Ns and D3As.

If Kaku and Yamaguchi decide on one last effort and send their admitedly exhausted fliers at 16.30 as planned, then that leaves just 10 Zeros on board, possibly fuelled and armed, and only a few damaged B5Ns and D3As from the previous strikes. There may still be a serious fire, but nowhere as bad as OTL, fewer casualties etc. Hiryu almost certainly remains under power and escapes imo.