Would Spain join Britain in ARW in exchange for Gibraltar or Florida.

[Vylon Disigma]

As in the title, if circumstances arose earlier in the ARW where Britain was not so confident in victory, would they be a able to recruit Spain to their side by offering Gibralter or Florida in exchange? Would they be willing to join against France too?

I thought of the scenario after I read this article (https://digitalcommons.unf.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1107&context=ojii_volumes) that argued that Spain joining the war on The Patriot's side was potentially decisive and that their thinking revolved around Gibraltar and Florida.

 

[Umbric Man]

Britain would never give up Gibraltar, it's ridiculously too valuable for trade, communications, and bottling up rivals in and across the Mediterranean. Florida itself is less valuable by default (what is versus Gib?) but still a useful dagger pointed at the West Indies, Gulf of Mexico, and if/when they became independent, America.

 

[Tanaka did nothing wrong]

Well, apart from the aforementioned troubles, the balance of power in 1776 didn't favour such an alignment. Namely, it would be just a nice way to enrage Paris, which in turn would leave Madrid alone at a time when Britain still loomed omnipotent. Risking diplomatic isolation (as France would take some time to forgive that) for a British "friendship" of questionable value which would also, were this scenario to materialise be mobilised and thus capable of declaring war on Spain after the pacification of the colonies would be irrational. Spanish foreign policy at the time was built on the principles of alliance with France (the Family pact) and defending the empire against Britain.

Furthermore, the Family Pact of 1761 iirc forced Spain to supply part of its navy to France in case of war; if France somehow ended up ended up at war with Britain, Madrid would be in a very awkward position to say the least.

Finally, if there was someone who was pushing for tearing down the edifice of the British empire in the late 1770s,that was Floridablanca, not Vergennes. The Armada of 1779 was mainly the idea of the Spanish, who wanted a brief war that wouldn't spread to the Caribbean, but also a decisive hit that would neutralise Britain for quite some time.

So it's pretty difficult to say the least.

 

[ghappy1000]

Britain would never give up Gibraltar, it's ridiculously too valuable for trade, communications, and bottling up rivals in and across the Mediterranean. Florida itself is less valuable by default (what is versus Gib?) but still a useful dagger pointed at the West Indies, Gulf of Mexico, and if/when they became independent, America.

Also, Spain successfully traded Florida for Cuba in 1763 and intended to trade Florida for Gibraltar in exchange for neutrality, an alliance or an early peace after besieging Gibraltar failed. Spain will take and Britain will reject surrendering the more important Gibraltar and Minorca. Neither Britain nor Spain will leave Florida for bargaining.

 

[unprincipled peter]

Britain offered up Gibraltar for Spanish assistance in the 7YW. They didn't do much with it between then and the ARW. I don't think they are so attached to it that wouldn't give it up. I've read that Britain didn't become attached to it until after the great siege during the ARW.

Spain offered neutrality in exchange for Gibraltar, but this wasn't enough. Actively joining Britain might do the trick.

The problem is that Carlos III was rabidly anti British and pro French. He might stay out of the fray, but he isn't going up against France. I doubt Spain will send troops on behalf of Britain, and that really is all Britain is in need of, as far as active support. At most, Spain might put pressure on France to back off/remain neutral. But by the time it becomes obvious this is a serious rebellion, it is too late for that. A far fetched scenario might see Spain offering Santo Domingo to France to get them to drop out in exchange for the return of Gibraltar/Florida (Minorca is not on the table). Britain likely won't trust Spain/France to not send covert aid.